College Affordability Findings and recommendations from a national - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Messaging on College Affordability

Findings and recommendations from a national online survey

• f adults

February 2018

Methodology

Focus Groups

October 23rd in Orlando, Florida

• Mixed race, mixed gender parents of HS age kids who

plan on attending college

• Mixed gender Latinos

October 26th in Dallas, Texas

• Millennials who have education debt;

November 1st in Cincinnati, Ohio

• Mixed gender non-college educated conservative whites

with HH income <$75,000

• Mixed gender African Americans

Online Dial Survey

• 1000 adults nationwide, January 2-10 2018
• Oversamples:

– 150 African Americans – 150 Latinos – 100 Asian Americans.

• M.O.E. +/- 3.1%

2

3

Defining Base, Opposition, and Persuasion

Throughout the report we refer to targets as base, opposition, and persuasion. They were created using an index of support for policies. Base – 27% of adults

• Strongly favor every policy to make it easier to pursue an

education without debt.

• Worried about the next generation’s ability to afford

college.

• More likely to have student debt themselves or for a child.
• More likely to be women, people of color, and Democrats.

Opposition – 11% of adults

• Strongly oppose policies to make it easier to pursue and

education without debt.

• Believe it is up to the individual to pay for college and that

it is possible for students today to work their way through college.

• More likely to be men, over 65, white, and Republicans.

Persuadable – 63% of adults

• Are generally favorable toward policies that would make it

easier to pursue an education without debt.

• See a role for government to invest and make it easier for

people to attend public 2- and 4-year colleges.

• More closely reflect demographics of the general public.

Demographics Total Base Opp. Pers.

Men 49 42 62 50 Women 51 58 38 50 Under 30 22 22 14 23 30-39 17 18 8 18 40-49 17 22 18 15 50-64 26 27 25 26 Over 65 18 12 35 18 White 65 60 77 65 AA 12 16 5 11 Latino 14 16 10 14 Asian 6 6 4 6 Northeast 18 20 16 17 Midwest 22 18 35 21 South 38 38 31 38 West 23 23 18 23 Democrat 45 58 22 44 Indep/DK 12 10 6 14 Republican 38 27 68 37

Education Debt

5

One in three adults have debt from student loans for themselves, a child, or another family member. Base adults are more likely to have debt. There is a stark racial difference in debt as non-college educated African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans have debt at the same or higher levels as white college graduates. Even

• ne in four grandparents and one in eight retirees has debt from student loans.

Do you have debt from student loans for any of the following?

All B P O For you

24 29 23 15

For a child

8 10 8 5

For another family member

5 3 6 6

Total Yes, have Debt

33 42 37 26

None of the Above

65 61 66 73

More Likely to Have Debt (Total Yes, %)

All Adults 33 Women 37 Under 30 55 30 to 39 48 4-year College Graduates 48 Post Graduates 60 White College Graduates 41 Black Non College Graduates 46 Black College Graduates 64 Latino Non College Graduates 41 Latino College Graduates 66 API Non College Graduates 41 API College Graduates 51 Parents of Kids <18 50 Grandparents of Kids <18 24 Students 65 Retirees 12

6

People see the cost of attending as the largest barrier to completing education after high school. Base adults also believe working too much is a barrier, while

• pposition adults are more likely to say lack of quality preparation in high

school or that the student isn’t dedicated to their education.

Which of the following do you think is the largest barrier to completing an education after high school? And which is the second largest barrier?

8 8 12 9 59 23 29 31 32 75

Not being dedicated to one's education Juggling responsibilities for family and education Lack of quality preparation in high school Working too many hours while in school The cost of attending

Largest Barrier Second Largest Base Pers. Oppo.

82 73 63 39 29 33 23 33 42 35 29 15 17 24 36

People across audiences say someone like themselves is not likely to graduate from college without debt. People overwhelmingly believe that students should be able to work their way through college without debt, but only opposition adults think students actually can.

7

These days do you think someone like you can graduate from college without any debt or not?

49 45 46 76 83 90 82 74 37 47 36 10 6 3 7 6

All B P O All B P O Agree (Total 6-10) Disagree (Total 0-4) Students today can work their way through college without going into debt. Students today should be able to work their way through college without going into debt. Yes No Not Sure All Adults

21 65 13

Base

20 69 11

Persuadable

20 67 13

Opposition

30 56 14

Base voters are more worried about student debt than others. Base and persuadables worry about the next generation’s ability to afford

• college. Opposition voters worry about the next generation, but less so

about their own children.

8

How worried are you about student debt?

70 87 67 45 67 83 67 34 26 13 29 49 27 14 27 59

All B P O All B P O Total Worried Total Not Worried How worried are you about the next generation’s ability to afford college? How worried are you about your children and the next generation’s ability to afford college? Total Worried Total Not Worried All Adults

49 46

Base

62 34

Persuadable

46 49

Opposition

34 64

Base Pers. Oppo.

48 40 35 47 42 24 31 32 34 25 26 26 24 20 18 15 17 26

9

Base and persuadable adults worry that debt impacts someone’s ability to complete their education and save money. Opposition adults also worry about the impact on decisions to get married, start a family, or buy a home, and the impact on other family members.

Which of the following impacts concerns you most when you think about someone with debt from public 2- and 4-year colleges? The impact on…

Top Concern Second Concern 8 10 11 18 21 23 17 21 26 32 42 42

Other family members Their credit score The career choice available Decisions to get married, start a family, or buy a home Ability to save money Ability to complete their education

Base Pers. Oppo.

39 39 22 24 18 7 19 14 10 5 12 24 6 9 26 6 8 12

10

Base and persuadables are more likely to attribute increasing debt to stagnant wages or state funding cuts. Opposition adults blame college administrators for bad spending decisions and families for poor financial planning.

Thinking about increasing debt from public 2- and 4-year college students have, which of the following do you think is the main factor behind the increasing debt?

8 10 11 15 18 37

Not sure Poor financial planning by families Bad spending decisions by college administrators Fewer grants and scholarships State government cuts to higher education Family income not keeping up with the cost of living

Policy Agenda

12

How serious of a problem do you think [student debt/debt from colleges and certificate training programs] is in America? [Split Sampled]

People think student debt is a serious problem. “Student debt” generates greater concern for base and persuadable voters compared to “debt from colleges and certificate training programs.”

57 45 77 70 54 38 28 24 92 86 95 98 92 85 84 59

Student Debt Debt from colleges and certificate training programs Student Debt Debt from colleges and certificate training programs Student Debt Debt from colleges and certificate training programs Student Debt Debt from colleges and certificate training programs

All Voters Base Persuadable Opposition

13

Favor Total Oppose Total

Strongly

Ensure all students can graduate from public 2- and 4-year colleges without debt*

78 61 15

Provide financial aid for college on a sliding scale to households based on their income*

78 58 15

Provide financial aid for college to the neediest students and their families*

76 57 16

Increase investment in public colleges so that no one has to go into debt in

• rder to complete their education

76 56 17

Ensure all students can graduate debt free from public 2- and 4-year colleges*

74 56 20

Make tuition to public colleges free for all households*

71 52 22

Make tuition to public colleges free for households earning below $125,000 per year*

71 51 22

End remaining debt for borrowers still paying off their loans after 10 years*

64 47 26

End remaining debt for borrowers still paying off their loans after 5 years*

64 45 26

*split sampled

Proposals for college and higher education programs in America: Favor or Oppose

Americans strongly favor policies to enable more students to graduate without debt.

“Sliding scale…based on income” is stronger language with independents, Republicans, and persuadables than “neediest students and their families.

14

% Total Favor All Adults Dem Ind Rep Pers Provide financial aid for college to the neediest students and their families.

76 84 73 69 75

Provide financial aid for college on a sliding scale to households based on their income.

78 85 73 74 79

Proposals for college and higher education programs in America: Favor or Oppose 50% strongly 56% strongly 44% strongly 49% strongly 46% strongly 50% strongly 57% strongly 58% strongly 69% strongly 65% strongly

“Without debt” is stronger language than “debt free” with persuadables and Republicans.

15

% Total Favor All Adults Dem Ind Rep Pers Ensure all students can graduate debt free from public 2- and 4-year colleges

74 85 73 61 74

Ensure all students can graduate from public 2- and 4-year colleges without debt

78 87 71 70 82

Proposals for college and higher education programs in America: Favor or Oppose

There is little difference in support for making tuition free when we qualify an income limit. Persuadables are more likely to support free tuition at public colleges when it is for all families.

16

% Total Favor All Adults Dem Ind Rep Pers Make tuition to public colleges free for households earning below $125,000 per year

71 85 66 57 68

Make tuition to public colleges free for all households

71 84 66 57 71

Proposals for college and higher education programs in America: Favor or Oppose

Majorities across party lines support ending remaining debt after 5 or 10 years. Democrats are slightly more in favor of ending debt after 10 years.

17

% Total Favor All Adults Dem Ind Rep Pers End remaining debt for borrowers still paying off their loans after 10 years

64 78 52 53 58

End remaining debt for borrowers still paying off their loans after 5 years

64 73 54 55 60

Proposals for college and higher education programs in America: Favor or Oppose

People across audiences say employers should pay for job training programs.

18

29 41 27 11 75 84 73 60

Do you agree or disagree (10 point scale):

Employers should be responsible for paying for job training programs for their employers.

Rated 6-10 – Agree Rated 10 – Strongly agree

All Voters Base Persuadable Opposition

19

Base and persuadables support covering the cost of housing and living expenses with strong intensity.

Some proposals to make public 2-and 4-year college more affordable would cover the cost of housing and living expenses. Which of the following is closer to your opinion? [If not sure: if you had to pick one?]

58 30 78 15 56 31 25 61 62 32 82 16 60 34 25 66

People who go to school full time and work part time should not have to go into debt in order to pay for books, groceries, transportation, and rent. Paying for college and gaining the economic benefits a degree can provide is an individual’s personal responsibility. All Voters Base Persuadable Opposition

While a majority of people agree that each individual should pay for public college, there is very weak intensity of

• agreement. It is a core value of opposition adults.

20

14 18 10 32 58 51 58 79

Do you agree or disagree (10 point scale):

It is up to each individual to pay for public 2- and 4-year college.

Rated 6-10 – Agree Rated 10 – Strongly agree

All Voters Base Persuadable Opposition

Benefits of Education

Persuadables like “pursue their dreams” more than “ability to succeed” as an outcome. It is more values-driven.

22

65 64 21 34 8 7 92 94 71 79 40 41

BASE PERSUADABLE OPPOSITION Making public 2- or 4-year colleges debt free for students will help their ability to succeed.

Rated 6-10 Rated 10

Making public 2- or 4-year colleges debt free for students will help their ability to pursue their dreams.

Positioning the economy as the primary beneficiary, while stronger across audiences, is mainly an opposition value. “We all benefit” resonates with base and persuadables and alienates opposition adults.

23

55 60 20 27 4 11 89 87 72 77 51 67

BASE PERSUADABLE OPPOSITION We all benefit when anyone who wants to go to college has the

• pportunity to do so.

Rated 6-10 Rated 10

Our economy benefits when anyone who wants to go to college has the

• pportunity to do so.

People believe that when more people have education our country benefits and we have a more healthy democracy.

24

53 55 24 25 8 8 85 83 76 74 62 66

BASE PERSUADABLE OPPOSITION We need more people to pursue public 2- or 4-year college because

• ur country benefits when people

have more education.

Rated 6-10 Rated 10

We need more people to pursue public 2- or 4-year college because when people have more education we have a more healthy democracy.

Across audiences, people more strongly agree with the broader “education after high school” when thinking about what it takes to be successful rather than just college.

25

41 53 18 22 4 14 84 84 67 76 48 64

BASE PERSUADABLE OPPOSITION A college degree is required in today's economy to be successful.

Rated 6-10 Rated 10

Education after high school is required in today's economy to be successful.

College graduates more strongly agree with “education after high school” than “college degree” in terms of what is required to be successful in today’s economy.

26

24 26 20 36 68 72 76 90

Non College Graduates College Graduates A college degree is required in today's economy to be successful.

Rated 6-10 Rated 10

Education after high school is required in today's economy to be successful.

Values and Language

Describing debt as “huge debt” that you end up with increases the salience of the value that everyone should have the opportunity to complete 2- or 4-year public college with persuadables.

28

70 71 25 38 4 6 92 93 75 83 39 53

BASE PERSUADABLE OPPOSITION Everyone should have the

• pportunity to complete 2- or 4-year

public college without going into debt.

Rated 6-10 Rated 10

Everyone should have the

• pportunity to complete 2- or 4-year

public college without ending up with huge debt.

“Work hard” increases agreement with opposition adults, but it is unnecessary in the conversation with persuadables.

29

73 67 27 38 11 3 92 93 82 83 56 45

BASE PERSUADABLE OPPOSITION People who are qualified, work hard, and want to go to college should not be excluded because they cannot afford college.

Rated 6-10 Rated 10

People who are qualified and want to go to college should not be excluded because they cannot afford college.

Costs as a barrier to people’s aspiration for education resonates more strongly with persuadables than worsening inequality.

30

56 54 28 24 3 8 91 88 80 72 70 50

BASE PERSUADABLE OPPOSITION The rising costs of public 2- and 4- year colleges put education out of reach for too many people.

Rated 6-10 Rated 10

The rising costs of public 2- and 4- year colleges contribute to worsening inequality.

Messaging

Opposition – Personal Responsibility

32

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

Base (50) Opposition (78) Persuadable (56)

We all need to take responsibility for ourselves, and that includes not spending beyond our means. If parents want to send their kids to college, it’s their job to save money and work hard. If workers want to go back to school, they should plan ahead so they can pay for it when the time comes. Students are more likely to work harder for something that they’ve paid for. Making college free, or forgiving student loans, will make people less likely to value a college education. If students are going to reap the economic benefits of a college education, it should be their job to pay for it, not the government’s job to pay everyone’s way through college.

that includes not spending beyond

• ur means

[if parents…] it’s their job to save money and work hard Students are more likely to work harder for something that they’ve paid for Making college free,

• r forgiving student

loans will make people less likely to value a college education it should be their job to pay for it, not the government’s job to pay everyone’s way through college

Opposition – Personal Responsibility

24 8 10 10 59 30 23 31 Opposition Persaudable Base All Adults

33

How convincing did you find this message?

100 – very convincing Total 80-100

WHAT WORKS (for them) ✓ Quick lift off for opposition. ✓ Responsibility a core value. ✓ Strong conscious ratings for opposition. WHAT FALLS SHORT X Base and persuadables dial down on “It’s [parents’] job to save money and work hard.” They are not convinced people can get through college without debt. X Base and persuadables dial down on “forgiving student loans will make people less likely to value a college education.” They reject that it takes the incentive away.

We All Benefit

34

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Base (74) Opposition (55) Persuadable (67)

The more America puts into its people, the more it gets back. We came together to make K-12 free to all, to build community colleges, and to provide soldiers with a college education after WWII. These decisions helped us build the greatest middle class ever. But today, right when a college degree is more important than ever, our leaders have backtracked on commitments for public colleges. It is time to recommit, so everyone can get a college degree without the burden of student loan debt. We need to ensure America is a land where all can dream big, develop the potential of our people, and realize our greatest aspirations, and that means making our public 2- and 4- year colleges affordable to all of us.

We came together to make K-12 free to all, to build community colleges, and to provide soldiers with a college education after WWII

• ur leaders have backtracked
• n commitments for public

colleges It is time to recommit, so everyone can get a college degree without the burden of student loan debt making our public 2- and 4- year colleges affordable to all of us. We need to ensure America is a land where all can dream big, develop the potential of our people, and realize our greatest aspirations

We All Benefit

4 18 40 22 23 55 78 57 Opposition Persaudable Base All Voters

35

How convincing did you find this message?

100 – very convincing Total 80-100

WHAT WORKS ✓ Quick take off for base. ✓ Strong conscious and unconscious ratings for base and persuadables. ✓ Providing historical context around K-12 and WWII provides strong rationale for recommitting. ✓ Base and persuadables dial up on strong call to action “it is time to recommit, so everyone can get a college degree…” which alienates the

• pposition.

✓ “Making out pubic 2- and 4-year colleges affordable to all of us” alienates the

• pposition.

✓ Aspirational message. WHAT FALLS SHORT X Slow take off for persuadables.

All Adults Voting Democratic Voting Republican Undecided

Comparing Top Messages By 2018 Likely Vote

22 6 17 17 27 7 22 10 56 20 46 49 69 21 57 31 We All Benefit Personal Responsibility We All Benefit Personal Responsibility We All Benefit Personal Responsibility We All Benefit Personal Responsibility

36

How convincing did you find this message?

100 – very convincing Total 80-100

Undecided voters and those voting for Democrats in November

• verwhelmingly find

“We All Benefit” more convincing. Republican voters find it as convincing as “Personal Responsibility.”

Financial Consequences

37

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Base (72) Opposition (59) Persuadable (67)

A college degree is an important first step for many people to pursue their dreams, but today too many people have burdensome education debt, preventing them from even getting by, much less getting ahead or saving for the future. If we made sure people could work their way through college again, Americans would be able to save, start a business, start a family, buy a home, or simply pay their

• bills. No one ever said getting ahead would be easy, but burdensome debt from loans make it needlessly hard for many young people. We

need to reduce the burden of student loan debt and make it easier for students to work hard toward pursuing their dreams and achieving financial security and peace of mind.

important first step for many people to pursue their dreams preventing them from even getting by, much less getting ahead or saving for the future If we made sure people could work their way through college again start a family, buy a home, or simply pay their bills but burdensome debt from loans make it needlessly hard for many young people We need to reduce the burden of student loan debt and make it easier for students to work hard

Financial Consequences

3 15 37 19 25 54 75 56 Opposition Persaudable Base All Voters

38

How convincing did you find this message?

100 – very convincing Total 80-100

WHAT WORKS ✓ Quick take off. ✓ Pivots to solutions. ✓ Calling debt “burdensome” alienates

• pposition.

✓ Base and persuadables dial up on strong call to action of “reducing the burden of student loan debt and make it easier for students to work hard toward pursuing their dreams.” ✓ Strong conscious and unconscious ratings for base and persuadables. WHAT FALLS SHORT X Keeps opposition too long.

Embedded in Inequality

39

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859

Base (70) Opposition (49) Persuadable (64)

Today there are two Americas: one for the wealthy and one for the rest of us. In the wealthy America, there are elite private colleges and the comfort of knowing your kids can dream big and achieve success. For those struggling, wages stay the same or barely rise and there are endless worries your kids won’t do better. Education has always been the road to a better life, but today, affordable college often only exists for wealthy people. Public colleges should be as good as private colleges, without generating a crippling amount of debt that holds many people back. We must enable all our children to pursue a college education without the burden of debt. The full benefits of achieving a college education should be available to everyone, not just the wealthy few.

• ne for the wealthy

and one for the rest

• f us

wages stay the same or barely rise and there are endless worries your kids won’t do better Education has always been the road to a better life affordable college

• ften only exists for

wealthy people Public colleges should be as good as private college without generating a crippling amount of debt that holds many people back We must enable all our children to pursue a college education without the burden of debt available to everyone, not just the wealthy few

Embedded in Inequality

4 19 41 23 22 55 78 57 Opposition Persaudable Base All Voters

40

How convincing did you find this message?

100 – very convincing Total 80-100

WHAT WORKS ✓ Alienates opposition. ✓ Strong conscious ratings particularly with base. ✓ Base dials up during “Two America” frame setup. ✓ All dial up on “education has always been the road to a better life.” ✓ Opposition alienated by linking two Americas to higher education “affordable college often

• nly exists for wealthy people.

✓ Base and persuadables dial up for “public colleges should be as good as private college.” ✓ Strong call to action “We must enable all our children to pursue a college education without the burden of debt.” ✓ Strong call to action at the end. WHAT FALLS SHORT X Persuadables slow to dial up during “Two America’s” setup. X Dialing flat through discussion of the problem.

45 3 11 75 38 12 11 17 22 73 7 92 1 72 6 33 34 3 Only opposition voters would punish a candidate who supported proposals to allow students to pursue an education without debt, and they divide nearly evenly.

41

If a candidate for Congress supported these kinds of proposals, would that make you more or less likely to VOTE for the candidate or would it make no difference?

All Voters Base Persuadable Opposition

Total more likely Total less likely Much more likely Much less likely Makes no difference

Recommendations

Messaging Recommendations

43

Lead With Values

The more America puts into people the more we get back. We all benefit.

• Education is the road to a better life.
• Everyone should have the opportunity to complete 2- or 4-year public college without ending

up in huge debt.

Define The Problem

Focus on the cost of as the largest barrier to completing a program.

• Students should be able to work their way through college, but they cannot because family

incomes have not kept up.

• People drop out because it gets too expensive.
• The cost of an education impacts their ability to complete an education and ability to save

money. Learning should not be a privilege of a wealthy few.

• Affordable college only exists today for wealthy people.
• Debt should not have to be this hard
• The barrier of burdensome debt holds back an entire generation from pursuing their dreams.

Provide a Call to Action

We need to ensure all children can pursue their education without the burden of debt that holds them back.

• We need to recommit to higher education, better fund public colleges, and reduce the

burden of debt.

• State government should try to make it easier for more people to attend and invest to make

it affordable

Notes on Language

44

Say… Instead of…

ability to pursue dreams ability to succeed Values driven, more aspirational, less transactional, and better positions debt as a barrier in a broader context. we all benefit

• ur economy benefits,
• ur country benefits,

healthier democracy They are all good, but saying we all benefit connects with solutions on individual and societal level rooted in fairness and equality. without debt debt free Better positions debt as a barrier and doesn’t raise tax

• sensitivities. Stronger language with base and

persuadable audiences. people who are qualified and want to go Drop “and who work hard” Evoking hard work puts debate in frame that this is only about personal responsibility and can obscure from debt as barrier. sliding scale based on income aid for neediest families Provides an objective measure of fairness. education after high school college When talking about keys to success we want to be broader than just college. People are more favorable toward vocational education than college and see a role in other forms of education in helping people succeed. Debt keeps education

• ut of reach for too

many Debt contributes to worsening inequality Make this about people and the pursuit of their dreams, not a more abstract political and economic discussion.

Celinda Lake Jonathan Voss clake@lakeresearch.com jvoss@lakeresearch.com

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY

LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066