CNRFC Water Supply Operations Trinity River Management Working - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CNRFC Water Supply Operations Trinity River Management Working - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CNRFC Water Supply Operations Trinity River Management Working Group Meeting, September 10, 2012 California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov CNRFC Forecast Methods Ensemble Streamflow

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CNRFC Water Supply Operations

Trinity River Management Working Group Meeting, September 10, 2012

California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov

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CNRFC Forecast Methods

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Statistical Water Supply

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Community Hydrologic Processing System (CHPS) Hydrologic Models

Rain-Snow Elevation

Snow-17

Soil Model (SAC-SMA)

Unit Hydrograph

Reservoir Models (RES-SNGL)

River Routing Models

Lumped (not distributed)

Mountainous basins

 Subdivided into  Upper / Lower  Upper / Middle / Lower

TENSION WATER STORAGE FREE WATER STORAGE PRIMARY FREE WATER STORAGE TENSION WATER STORAGE TENSION WATER STORAGE SUPPLEMENTARY FREE WATER STORAGE

LOWER ZONE UPPER ZONE

DIRECT RUNOFF INTERFLOW SURFACE RUNOFF BASEFLOW SUBSURFACE OUTFLOW

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Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

16-day GFS Run Daily RFC Forecasting

  • Data Ingest
  • Data QC
  • Model Updating

Current Conditions

  • Soil
  • Reservoir Levels
  • Streamflow

Historical Time Series All Years of Record FMAP FMAT Snow Levels Mean Areal Time Series Precipitation Temperature CHPS Hydrologic Models Time Streamflow April-July

EPP3

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Trace Processing

Streamflow

Time

April-July

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AHPS/ESP Trace Analysis Interface – Create Your Own Product

Create your own product is generating

  • utput from raw traces from CHPS.

Has documentation on general ensemble theory, making selections and interpreting results.

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/ahps.php

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Forecast Generation – AHPS/ESP Trace Analysis – Create Your Own Product

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Forecast Methods

April-July Forecasts issued 1st of month January through May. Monthly breakdown for Trinity issued February through May.

For the CNRFC, emphasis will be on daily updates of water supply forecasts using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction. Forecasts will go daily out to 10 days, every four days

  • ut to 20 days, April-Jul or any other long-

term interval up to one year.

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How Precipitation Forecasts for CNRFC River Models are Made

Forecast intervals are 6-hours out to 6 days. Guidance is provided by several numerical weather prediction models that are updated every 6

  • r 12 hours.

Forecasters interpret and assess the model guidance and apply local knowledge and experience. Forecasts are made for specific point locations. There are over 25 forecast points just in northern CA. The Grid Forecast Editor tool (pictured on the right) distributes point precipitation forecasts to a 4-km grid using a technique that takes into account a precipitation climatology dataset known as PRISM.

Gridded 6-Hour Precipitation Forecast in GFE

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A single-value MAP (Mean Areal Precipitation) is calculated for each basin by averaging the forecast precipitation for all grid points that fall inside the basin boundary.

How Precipitation Forecasts for CNRFC River Models are Made

Gridded 6-Hour MAP Forecast in GFE

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Temperature MUMC1: Mumbo Basin CFRC1: Coffee Ridge BFLC1: Big Flat RRMC1: Red Rock Mtn SHMC1: Shimmy Lake TYRC1: Taylor Ridge TGSC1: Trinity Guard Stn WEAC1: Weaverville RS Trinity River

Temperature Sensors used in the CHPS Calibration for ESP

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Snow Courses used for the Trinity Basin

Shimmy Lake, Middle Boulder 3, Dynamite Meadow, Swampy John, Etna Mtn, Bear Basin (not in May), Deadfall Lakes (not in May)

DFKC1 BBSC1 SWJC1 ETMC1 DYMC1 MDBC1 SHMC1

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CNRFC Forecast Publication

Currently archived in

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply.php Probability forecasts by month were placed in a publication per request from Andreas Krause, Trinity River Restoration

  • Program. First monthly forecasts published February 2004.

Starting next water year, the CNRFC monthly publication will be discontinued. Instead, forecasts will be located

  • n the CNRFC web site and updated daily.

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/index.php?type=ensemble

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Access to Ensemble Forecasts

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/index.php?type=ensemble

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Trend Plot – Trinity Basin

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/index.php?type=ensemble

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Trend Plot – Trinity Basin

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Monthly Probability – CNRFC Website

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/index.php?type=ensemble Text output from this histogram will eventually be added

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CNRFC Forecast Publication

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply.php

Also see CADWR Bulletin 120: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/iodir_ss/b120

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CNRFC Trinity River Contacts

Contacts:

Andy Morin, andy.morin@noaa.gov, 916-979-3056 x324 Alan Haynes, alan.haynes@noaa.gov, 916-979-3056 x328

Presently, First of the month April-July Trinity River forecasts are coordinated with CADWR before release to publication.

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Questions?

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Additional Slides

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CEGC1: 10-Day Traces

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CEGC1: 10-Day Probability

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CEGC1: 10-day Accum Value

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CEGC1: 4x5 Day Probability

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CEGC1 – Mean Areal Precipitation

Trace of 60 Years of Mean Areal, 6-hourly precipitation with seasonal trend from coop observer sites.

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CEGC1 – SWE Analysis

Split level elevation boundary 5,000 ft

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CEGC1 – Inflow

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CEGC1 – Model Parameters