Climate Change, Transport and Cities David Banister Professor of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change, Transport and Cities

David Banister

Professor of Transport Studies and Director of the Transport Studies Unit School of Geography and the Environment Oxford University, UK.

Presentation for CODATU2015 – Energy, Climate Change and Air quality Challenges: The Role of Urban Transport Policies in Developing Countries - 3rd February 2015

Presentation Outline

• 1. Cities and Growth
• 2. Cities and Change
• 3. Reflections and Prospects

Sense of place and sustainable transport Speed and scale of change City resilience Public transport cities

• 4. Conclusions and challenges

Population growth rates, migration and provision of infrastructure 1900 2000 2030 2050 13% 47% 60% 67% 0.25 Billion 2.8 Billion 5.0 Billion 6.4 Billion 1.8 Billion 6.0 Billion 8.2 Billion 9.5 Billion

• 1. Cities and Growth: Transport in

Global Cities – the new agenda

City Size Number of Cities Population in Cities (millions) 1965 2010 2020 2030 1965 2010 2020 2030 >10 million 5-10 million 1-5 million 500k – 1 million 300k-500k <300k 3 12 112 152 201 663 23 40 373 487 628 1607 36 50 472 592 742 1778 41 63 558 731 832 1922 49 80 212 105 78 660 370 285 742 339 238 1598 588 333 931 410 285 1791 730 434 1128 509 319 1938 Total 1143 3158 3760 4147 1184 3572 4338 5058

Growth in Cities and in Urban Population

Based on UN (2015) DESA data

The Growth in Mega Cities

Reached 2025 levels in 8 years, not 18 years – as shown here Currently (2014) 29 cities >10 million

The Pearl River Delta

Mega City Regions – High Speed Rail Connectivity - China

Nine large cities will coalesce – mega city region – 30 million. Huge infrastructure investment ($300 billion – 2011-2017) – with 3100 miles of rail so that travel times between any centre will be under 60 mins – close links to Hong Kong (7 million)

• 1. Global risk – floods,

winds, sea surge

• 2. Urban planning and

governance

• 3. Opportunity and

engagement – but also homelessness, crime, poverty – need for energy, water, waste, pollution controls – reuse of industrial land - regeneration

• 2. Cities and Change

High proportion of the total population are at risk of flooding, including Bangladesh (46%), Egypt (38%) and Vietnam (55%) London Olympics – 2012 Before After

City Resilience + Climate Change

Cities and vulnerability – 40% world cities (1-10m) and 20/29 mega cities coastal – storm surges, river flooding and intensity of rain.

• 3. Reflections and Prospects

Sense of Place and Sustainable Transport

Eight sustainability dimensions

• 1. Three energy themes
• 2. Three for more local production
• 3. Place strategies
• 4. Transport strategies

Place Strategies – to promote the human dimension – driving

• ther strategies –

engagement practices Transport Strategies – quality fast transit along corridors – dense TODs – pedestrian and cycle strategies and infrastructure – EV infrastructure – green wall boundary to prevent further urban growth

Speed and Scale of Change: Population Growth in Five World Cities

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Year

City Population (million) London Shanghai Beijing New York Tokyo

Shanghai’s residential population (2010) was 23.02 million, increasing by 6.28 million since 2000. Including

• nly Shanghai hukou, the population was 14.12 million

(2010) and this has decreased for the past 18 years. Beijing’s residential population (2010) was 19.61 million, which exceeds the target population for 2020 (18 million), and its hukou population was 12.46 million.

Harbin – October 2013

Air Pollution – Major Health Problem for Cities

Shanghai – December 2013

Mercer Ranking 2014 by Quality of Life and Trips % Walk Cycle Public Transport Total

• 1. Vienna

2010

• 2. Zurich

2001

• 3. Auckland

2008

• 4. Munich

2008

• 5. Vancouver

2007

• 6. Dusseldorf

2004

• 7. Frankfurt

2004

• 8. Geneva

2010

• 9. Copenhagen

2004

• 10. Bern

2001 28 8 13 28 17 27 11 11 49 6 11 5 5 2 14 3 3 5 7 36 11 36 63 8 21 17 30 31 39 17 29 54 69 74 23 63 37 60 47 57 66 71 76

Notes: The dates refer to the transport data in the table. Vancouver has two figures, one for the city and the other (higher) for the downtown, and Geneva has a combined figure for walk and cycle. Sources: http://www.imercer.com/products/2014/quality-of-living.aspx and various datasets

Public Transport Cities and Active Transport

Investment in Public Transport, Walk and Cycle - Integration

Transit Oriented Development – BRT Corridor Curitiba Transport Development Area Canary Wharf London

New York City - Broadway at Times Square in 2007 and 2009

Copenhagen: Carbon neutral by 2025 68% of residents cycle >1 per week 90% think the city is a good place for cyclists Cyclists seriously injured have fallen by >60% since 1996 Benefits = speed, convenience, health costs

• 1. Governance and Decision Making
• 1. Speed that the land use system can respond to change
• 2. Flexibility in planning horizons and cross sectoral

cooperation

• 3. New agenda requires agility, vision and leadership
• 2. Sustainable Development and Decoupling
• 1. Broader interpretations of development – linked to SD: to

include ecological footprints, HDI, Gini coefficients and renewable energy

• 2. Cities of in-migration, economic growth and potential

doubling of motorised vehicles every 5-7 years – need for absolute decoupling of transport growth from economic growth

Four key elements for sustainable transport and urban development

• 3. Space: Capacity and Yield

Management

Investment in Public Transport and Demand Management

Transformational Change – 3 Ideas

• 1. Shrink the car – space and parking
• 2. Rethink the car – new mode of city

transport – shared and leased

• 3. Use available capacity in cars, vans,

buses and trains – empty space Technological change is really about social processes

• 4. People and Participation
• 1. Engagement of stakeholders throughout the

debate to explain, raise expectations and to deliver change in a positive way;

• 2. Increasing use of internet and social media

to achieve this and through giving people choices – online voting for change – ‘people power’.

The internet based economy allows activities to take space almost anywhere, even whilst

• travelling. But despite all these overlapping

changes and the complexities that this leads to, there is still a need for face to face contact – this is the new rationale for cities