Climate Change Mitigation in China Challenges and Policies in the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change & Development Policy 28-29 Sept., 2012, Helsinki, Finland Climate Change Mitigation in China Challenges and Policies in the Process of Industrialization and Urbanization Jiahua Pan Institute for
Institute for Urban & Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences jiahuapan@163.com
UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change & Development Policy 28-29 Sept., 2012, Helsinki, Finland
Emissi
Challe
Urbanization
Industrializa
Opport
Mitiga
conclu
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/.
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Mt CO2
China
UK Brazil India Japan US
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 CO2 Emission per capita ( ton CO2/person) 20.000 15.000 10.000 30.000 35.000 GDP per capita, $US 25.000 45.000 40.000 5.000 China UK Italy Germany France India Brazil South Africa
Data Source： 1.CO2 Emission data is from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center(CDIAC) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory 2011，include emission from fossil fuel combustion and Cement process 。 2.GDP Data is from World Bank Database 2012，Price is 2010 dollar constant price。 3.Data of CO2 Emission from fossil fuel combustion from CDIAC and IEA are basically Consistent， Error is in 1%.
Post-industr. Late stage Medium stage Early stage Pre-industr.
unit 2009 % world
2011
raw steel mt 568 568 46.6 46.6 684 684 steel mt 696 696 ～50 50 883 883 cement bt 1.63 1.63 >50 >50 2.09 2.09 aluminum mt 12.85 12.85 35 35 17.68 17.68 copper mt 4.13 4.13 25 25 5.18 5.18 coal bt 3.05 3.05 45 45 3.52 3.52 Chemical f. mt 66.0 66.0 35 35 62.17 62.17 unit 2009 % world
2011
automobile m 13.79 13.79 25 25 18.41 18.41 computer m 182 182 60 60 320 320 Color TV m 98.99 98.99 48 48 122.31 122.31 refrigerator m 59.30 59.30 60 60 86.99 86.99 Air conditioner m 80.78 80.78 70 70 139.12 139.12 Mobile phone m 619.0 619.0 50 50 1,133.0 1,133.0 Chemical fiber m 27.3 27.3 57 57 33.9 33.9 Cotton fiber m 23.9 23.9 46 46 29.0 29.0
cities
Consumer behaviour: End of 2011: automobile fleet totals 105.8 million, 16.4% increase over the previous year. Private vehicles 78.7 million; households cars: 43.2 million, 25.5% more than 2010.
20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
1 9 4 9 1 9 5 1 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 2 1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Urban Population 城镇（%） Rural Population 乡村（%） Urban Population（10000） 城镇（万人） Rural Population(10000) 乡村（万人）
0.0E+00 2.0E+12 4.0E+12 6.0E+12 8.0E+12 1.0E+13 1.2E+13 1.4E+13 1.6E+13 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
US EU （France,UK,Ge rmany） 中China India
单位：美元 current USD http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?page=1
census
date conducted
Growth rate per yr (%) Family size (no.) Urban. Rate (%) % 0-14 yrs % 60 yrs & above total population (M)
6th
1st Nov 2010
0.57% 3.10
49.68% 16.60% 8.87% 1,371 5th
1st Nov 2000
1.07% 3.44
36.09% 22.89% 6.96% 1,295 4th
Jul 1990
1.48% 3.96
26.23% 27.69% 5.57% 1,160 3rd
1st July 1982
2.10%
20.6% 1,032 2nd
30th June 1964
18.4% 40.4% 5.5% (60 yrs) 723 1st
30th June 1953
13.26% 574 Source: population census bulletin, various years
5 10 15 20 25 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 年份 中国 美国 欧盟 印度
2011 in China: total primary energy consumption 3.48 btce, 7.0% increase over 2010
2012-07-21: Jingshi Junction, Beijing 2012-06-23: Hezhou, Guangxi
Drought in
Shandong
Province, 2011
2020 CO2 reduction targets
Per unit GDP reduction of CO2 by 40%—45%, as compared to 2005 level Share of non-fossil fuel energy over primary energy consumption: 15%； Increase in forested area by 40 m ha as compared to 2005 level; timber
volume increase by 1.3 billion cubic meters, as compared to 2005 level
12th five year (2011-2015) plan mandatory targets
Cut of Conventional environmental pollutants
Forest cover increase to 21.66％, timber volume increase by 600 m cubic
meters
Energy and CO2 emission
Non-fossil fuel energy: increase in share from 8.3% in 2010 to 11.4% 2015
regions provinces Energy intensity targets Group Group I I Tianj Tianjin, in, Sh Shangh anghai, J ai, Jian iangsh gshu, Z u, Zhejia hejiang ng and and Guang Guangdon dong 18% 18% Group Group II II Beiji Beijing, ng, He Hebei, bei, Lian Liannin ning a g and S nd Shando handong ng 17% 17% Group Group II III Shanx Shanxi, Jil i, Jilin, Heilo in, Heilongj ngjian iang, g, Anhui, nhui, Fu Fujia jian, n, Jiang Jiangxi, xi, He Henan, nan, Hube Hubei, Hun i, Hunan, Chong an, Chongqin qin, , Sichu Sichuan and an and Sha Shaanxi anxi 16% 16% Group Group IV IV Inner Inner Mo Mongo ngolia, lia, Guan Guangxi gxi, G , Guizh uizhou, Y
unnan, an, Gansh Ganshu u and Ning nd Ningxia xia 15% 15% Group Group V V Haina Hainan, Tib n, Tibet, Qingh et, Qinghai and ai and Xin Xinjiang jiang 10% 10%
Energy efficiency
super- super- critical thermal power, mandatory shutdown of small scale generation units
automobile: from Euro I to Euro IV and V in 10 years
Buildings codes
renewable energy
China became the largest investor in renewable energy market, with 48.9 billion USD in 2010, consisting 28% of the world investment.
Wind: China has 42.3 GW of wind power; surpassed the US in terms of total installed capacity. China has become the world’s largest producer of wind energy equipment.”
Solar:
Hydropower: China’s Hydro power installation increased 5.3% in 2010, the newly added installation consists 50% of the world total installation in 2010.
Bio-gas:
forestation
Sources:UNDP2010 Report on Renewable Energy; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association (CREIA);
Source: IEA, 2011, China National Statistic Yearbook 2011
per capita CO2 10.47 14.89 13.36 7.9 4.89 6.23 4.84 8.27 3.38 19.8 5 10 15 20 25
beijing tianjin shanghai chongqing hainan China world EU developing US
long term
Energy efficiency measures Renewable energy utilization Forest sinks
incentives, regulation
Climate compatible development for climate
Transforming the energy system for securer
Consumption ethics: sustainable and low carbon,
Integration: pollution control, low carbon,
Working together: global efforts