Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security Implications for Developing Climate Resilient Agriculture Programs

Uganda CCVA Lessons: Design, Implementation and Stakeholder Engagement Patricia Caffrey Uganda CCVA Team Leader and ARCC Chief of Party

Guiding Research Questions VA Goal: Show how current climate patterns shape — and how future climate patterns may influence — key crop value chains and livelihoods of households in six FtF districts of Uganda that depend on them. EXPOSURE: How will climate change impact selected crop value chains? SENSITIVITY: What impacts will climate change and variability have on a representative range of Ugandan rural livelihoods? ADAPTIVE CAPACITY: How will farmers adapt in response to climate change impacts on the study crops? V = f (Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity)

Study Districts and Agro-Ecological Diversity

An Interdisciplinary Approach

Reducing Uncertainty Through Integrated Design and Active Collaboration David Miller, Technical Advisor for Africa

Distribution of Agricultural Livelihoods Mixed Livestock Crops Mixed Livestock Crops

Integrated Research and Partners

Historical Vulnerability Northern Sub-Zone Southern Sub-zone Exposure Exposure Resilience Resilience Stress (AC2) Sensitivity Stress (AC2) Sensitivity Deficit Deficit Asset Assets (AC1) Assets (AC1) Asset Deficit Deficit Further from the center = greater vulnerability. – Agriculture – Mixed – Livestock

Western Honduras Agro-ecological Assessment Design John Parker Assessment Team Leader

Study Area: Dry Corridor Region

Socio-ecological Resilience Research Framework

Climate Change May Shift the Ecosystem “Envelope” of Suitability

Mali Climate Change Vulnerability “Hot Spot” Mapping Alex de Sherbinin Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)

Mapping Based on the IPCC Framework Vulnerability mapping integrates spatial variability in: – Climate / biophysical systems – Human and economic system sensitivity • Climate change exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity Exposure Layer are all spatially differentiated + • Mapping can illuminate key Sensitivity Layer vulnerabilities in the coupled + human-environment system Adaptive Capacity • Mapping can inform where Layer adaptation may be required, = though not necessarily what Vulnerability needs to be done

Mali Climate Vulnerability Mapping • • • • Created separate Created separate Created separate Created separate maps for: maps for: maps for: maps for: – Exposure – Exposure – Exposure – Exposure – Sensitivity – Sensitivity – Sensitivity – Sensitivity – Adaptive Capacity – Adaptive Capacity – Adaptive Capacity – Adaptive Capacity • Aggregated these into an overall vulnerability index Bamako

Lessons Learned • The maps were very well received by USAID/Mali – Poster-sized maps of results and input layers were requested for a climate change programming meeting in October 2013 – Maps helped USAID staff with different portfolios (e.g., health, agriculture) to visualize how climate change vulnerability intersected with their portfolios – The maps assisted with geographic priority setting • It is important to provide full documentation of data and methods, and to communicate uncertainty

Questions?

The ARCC Portal and Continued Learning on Climate Change Adaptation Leif Kindberg Knowledge and Learning Manager

Learning and Communications

ARCC’s Home Online Vulnerability Assessments, Technical Papers, etc. http://community.eldis.org/ARCC/

Learning Resource Links ARCC’s Eldis Portal: http://community.eldis.org/ARCC/ ARCC’s Databases and Maps: http://www.usaid.gov/data AgriLinks Library http://agrilinks.org/library

Uptake and Use of CCVA Results for Climate- Resilient Agriculture Programming in Uganda Rita Laker-Ojok Value Chain Specialist

Areas of Uptake The CCVA Informed: • USAID programming • New project design for the donor • National policy formulation • Local government planning • Agriculture research prioritization

Participatory Dissemination of Results

Building Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Planning at Local Gov. Level  USAID Add MoLG takes  EEA  MoFED Ownership  NPA Phase 3 Phase 1 Phase 4 Monitor Champions Sensitize TOT for Impact on Share train local Include CC LG on CC local LG plan & CCVA committee indicators Main- champions perf. Report in District streaming Assess. Tool Phase 3 (b) Phase 5 Phase 2  Continue Add Add  OPM  MAAIF  MoLG under CC  MWE strategy

Initial 6 Pilot Districts

Rollout to 6 FAO Districts and 34 FtF Focus Districts

Designing Assessments To Be Used: Early Indications Of Uptake In The Senegal Assessment Mamadou Baro University of Arizona

The Study Zone

Knowledge Brokers and Champions Senegalese Institute for Agricultural Research Center for Ecological Monitoring

Local Planning

Promoting Climate Resilient Livelihoods in Eastern Senegal to reduce the vulnerability of food systems to climate change Next Steps Shared our findings with a diverse array of local stakeholders

Uptake and Use of the CCVA in Honduras Isaac Ferrera USAID/Honduras

Drought and Floods in Honduras

Institutional Framework on Climate Change

Cloud Forests: Water Sources

Dry Corridor Alliance Zone of Influence Land Cover

Adaptation Pathways

Mali Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping: Uptake and Use Alex Apotsos USAID, Climate Change Advisor On behalf of: USAID/Mali

Uptake Final Vulnerability Map Population Density Malnutrition Rates USAID/Mali Program Geographies

Credibility, Salience, and Legitimacy Credibility Salience CDCS Resilience Strategy GCC Program Design Clarity/Simplicity Legitimacy Our processing involved the following steps. We converted all the original (raw) spatial data layers into grids at a common 30 arc-second (approximately 1 sq. km) resolution. We chose this grid cell size because it was the resolution of our highest- resolution data sets (flood frequency and soil organic carbon), and we felt that the interpolated surfaces for a number of our point-based data sets (e.g., the Demographic and Health Survey cluster-level data, conflict data, and health facilities data) could achieve a better representation of spatial variability at 1 sq. km. Yet it is worth noting that the climate and anthropogenic biomes data layers are at a spatial resolution of 5 to 6 arc-minutes (approximately 10-11 km on a side at the equator); and the poverty index and infant mortality are only available for administrative units (communes and cercles, respectively). Photo: Gray Tappin, USGS

Limitations Wonderful communication Indicators and visualization tool, but Analysis still just a tool Data Quality Maps only as good as data and analytic method used (Garbage in = Garbage out) Knowledge Brokers/Champions

Lessons Learned

Questions?

Gallery Walk Tables Food Security (Agriculture, Livestock, Fishing) and Climate Change 1 Ecosystem-dependent Livelihoods and Climate Change 2 Water Resources and Climate Change 3 Planning, Institutions, Conflict and Climate Change 4 Exploring Methods in Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments 5

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security Implications for Developing Climate Resilient Agriculture Programs