Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

Implications for Developing Climate Resilient Agriculture Programs

Uganda CCVA Lessons: Design, Implementation and Stakeholder Engagement

Patricia Caffrey Uganda CCVA Team Leader and ARCC Chief of Party

Guiding Research Questions

VA Goal: Show how current climate patterns shape—and how future climate patterns may influence—key crop value chains and livelihoods of households in six FtF districts

• f Uganda that depend on them.

EXPOSURE: How will climate change impact selected crop value chains? SENSITIVITY: What impacts will climate change and variability have on a representative range of Ugandan rural livelihoods? ADAPTIVE CAPACITY: How will farmers adapt in response to climate change impacts on the study crops?

V = f (Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity)

Study Districts and Agro-Ecological Diversity

An Interdisciplinary Approach

Reducing Uncertainty Through Integrated Design and Active Collaboration

David Miller, Technical Advisor for Africa

Distribution of Agricultural Livelihoods

Mixed Livestock Crops Mixed Livestock Crops

Integrated Research and Partners

Exposure Sensitivity Assets (AC1) Stress (AC2) Resilience Deficit Asset Deficit Exposure Sensitivity Assets (AC1) Stress (AC2) Resilience Deficit Asset Deficit

Northern Sub-Zone Southern Sub-zone

Historical Vulnerability

Further from the center = greater vulnerability. – Agriculture – Mixed – Livestock

Western Honduras Agro-ecological Assessment Design

John Parker Assessment Team Leader

Study Area: Dry Corridor Region

Socio-ecological Resilience Research Framework

Climate Change May Shift the Ecosystem “Envelope” of Suitability

Mali Climate Change Vulnerability “Hot Spot” Mapping

Alex de Sherbinin Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)

Mapping Based on the IPCC Framework Vulnerability mapping integrates spatial variability in:

–Climate / biophysical systems –Human and economic system sensitivity

• Climate change exposure,

sensitivity and adaptive capacity are all spatially differentiated

• Mapping can illuminate key

vulnerabilities in the coupled human-environment system

• Mapping can inform where

adaptation may be required, though not necessarily what needs to be done

Exposure Layer

+

Sensitivity Layer

+

Adaptive Capacity Layer

=

Vulnerability

• Created separate

maps for:

– Exposure – Sensitivity – Adaptive Capacity

Mali Climate Vulnerability Mapping

Bamako

• Created separate

maps for:

– Exposure – Sensitivity – Adaptive Capacity

• Created separate

maps for:

– Exposure – Sensitivity – Adaptive Capacity

• Created separate

maps for:

– Exposure – Sensitivity – Adaptive Capacity

• Aggregated these

into an overall vulnerability index

Lessons Learned

• The maps were very well received by USAID/Mali

– Poster-sized maps of results and input layers were requested for a climate change programming meeting in October 2013 – Maps helped USAID staff with different portfolios (e.g., health, agriculture) to visualize how climate change vulnerability intersected with their portfolios – The maps assisted with geographic priority setting

• It is important to provide full documentation of data and

methods, and to communicate uncertainty

Questions?

The ARCC Portal and Continued Learning on Climate Change Adaptation

Leif Kindberg Knowledge and Learning Manager

Learning and Communications

Vulnerability Assessments, Technical Papers, etc. http://community.eldis.org/ARCC/

ARCC’s Home Online

Learning Resource Links ARCC’s Eldis Portal: http://community.eldis.org/ARCC/ ARCC’s Databases and Maps: http://www.usaid.gov/data AgriLinks Library http://agrilinks.org/library

Uptake and Use of CCVA Results for Climate- Resilient Agriculture Programming in Uganda

Rita Laker-Ojok Value Chain Specialist

Areas of Uptake

The CCVA Informed:

• USAID programming
• New project design for the donor
• National policy formulation
• Local government planning
• Agriculture research prioritization

Participatory Dissemination of Results

Monitor Impact on LG plan & perf. Include CC indicators in District

• Assess. Tool

Champions train local committee TOT for local champions Sensitize LG on CC Main- streaming

Building Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Planning at Local Gov. Level

USAID EEA Add MoFED NPA MoLG takes Ownership Add MAAIF MoLG MWE Continue Add OPM under CC strategy Share CCVA Report

Phase 1 Phase 4 Phase 3 (b) Phase 5 Phase 3 Phase 2

Initial 6 Pilot Districts

Rollout to 6 FAO Districts and 34 FtF Focus Districts

Designing Assessments To Be Used: Early Indications Of Uptake In The Senegal Assessment

Mamadou Baro University of Arizona

The Study Zone

Senegalese Institute for Agricultural Research Center for Ecological Monitoring

Knowledge Brokers and Champions

Local Planning

Promoting Climate Resilient Livelihoods in Eastern Senegal to reduce the vulnerability of food systems to climate change Next Steps Shared our findings with a diverse array of local stakeholders

Uptake and Use of the CCVA in Honduras

Isaac Ferrera USAID/Honduras

Drought and Floods in Honduras

Institutional Framework on Climate Change

Cloud Forests: Water Sources

Land Cover Dry Corridor Alliance Zone of Influence

Adaptation Pathways

Mali Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping: Uptake and Use

Alex Apotsos USAID, Climate Change Advisor On behalf of: USAID/Mali

Uptake

Final Vulnerability Map Population Density Malnutrition Rates USAID/Mali Program Geographies

Credibility, Salience, and Legitimacy

Salience Credibility Clarity/Simplicity Legitimacy

Our processing involved the following steps. We converted all the original (raw) spatial data layers into grids at a common 30 arc-second (approximately 1

• sq. km) resolution. We chose this grid cell size

because it was the resolution of our highest- resolution data sets (flood frequency and soil organic carbon), and we felt that the interpolated surfaces for a number of our point-based data sets (e.g., the Demographic and Health Survey cluster-level data, conflict data, and health facilities data) could achieve a better representation of spatial variability at 1 sq.

• km. Yet it is worth noting that the climate and

anthropogenic biomes data layers are at a spatial resolution of 5 to 6 arc-minutes (approximately 10-11 km on a side at the equator); and the poverty index and infant mortality are only available for administrative units (communes and cercles, respectively).

CDCS Resilience Strategy GCC Program Design

Photo: Gray Tappin, USGS

Limitations

Data Quality Analysis Indicators

Maps only as good as data and analytic method used (Garbage in = Garbage out) Knowledge Brokers/Champions Wonderful communication and visualization tool, but still just a tool

Lessons Learned

Questions?

Gallery Walk Tables

Food Security (Agriculture, Livestock, Fishing) and Climate Change 1 Ecosystem-dependent Livelihoods and Climate Change 2 Water Resources and Climate Change 3 Planning, Institutions, Conflict and Climate Change 4 Exploring Methods in Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments 5

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

Implications for Developing Climate Resilient Agriculture Programs