Climate Change Impact Assessment over West Central Florida using - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change Impact Assessment

• ver West Central Florida

using CLAREnCE10 data from FSU

Results based on 3 GCMs and 3 CDF construction tech. for bias-correction

• Feb. 27. 2013

Syewoon Hwang, Wendy Graham

Water Institute Research

Reanalysis GCMs_future GCMs_retro. Bias-correction Application for Tampa Bay region

Hydrologic model (IHM)

Downscaling

Raw GCMs or Reanalysis Bias-corrected GCMs Observation Downscaled GCM Observation

Statistical method;

BCSD, SDBC, BCCA, BCSA, etc.

Dynamical downscaling

MM5, RSM, etc. R1, R2, ERA40, 20CR CMIP3: CCSM, GFDL, HadCM3, etc.

• MeanPrec. (Raw-CCSM+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

Presentation outline

• Data (CLAREnCE10)

– 3 dynamically downscaled GCMs – AR4 A2 scenario

• bias-correction

– 3 Different CDF development methods

• Hydrologic modeling

– Integrated Hydrologic Model – Tampa Bay region, West central Florida

• Results I: climate information

– Daily Precipitation – Daily max. and min. Temperature

• Results II: hydrologic implication

– ET estimations – Mean Streamflow, 7Q10 high/low flow GCMs_future GCMs_retro. Bias-correction Application

Hydrologic model (IHM)

Dynamical downscaling

RSM: COAPS, FSU CMIP3: CCSM, GFDL, HadCM3 <- AR4 A2 scenario

Downscaling

Assessing climate change impact on hydrology using Dynamically downscaled GCMs

Using spatially averaged, sub-basin based observation

Delta method

• 3 GCMs + Regional Spectral Model (RSM), CCSM, HadCM3, and GFDL
• Spatial resolution (10kmx10km) over southeastern US
• Variables: hourly Prec., humidity, wind speed, etc., daily Tmax/min data

– Daily bias-corrected Prec. data are available

• Retrospective simulation period: 1969-1999
• Future simulation (AR4 A2 scenario): 2039-2069

http://coaps.fsu.edu/CLARReS10/index.shtml

Data

Bias-correction (BC) Methodology

• Future Bias Correction methods: CDF mapping

CDF: 1 Precipitation

Sim_retro.

BC_retro

+

Sim_future

raw 2 raw1

• bs

Example 1

• 3 different CDFs

1. Monthly CDF (≈30 data/yr) 2. CDF for moving window (± 15 days, 31 data/yr) 3. CDF for moving window (± 30 days, 61 data/yr)

Bias-corrected Sim_future

BC-Sim_future

• I. Temperature
• Spatial distribution of mean temperature

(map comparison)

• Annual cycle of

– Monthly mean Tmax and Tmin – Differences between the simulations for 1969~1999 & 2039~2069

• MeanTmin. (Raw-HadCM3+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5

• MeanTmax. (Raw-GFDL+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5

• MeanTmin. (Gobs: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5

• MeanTmin. (Raw-CCSM+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5

Tmin spatial distribution

Observation

1969~1999

• MeanTmin. (Raw-HadCM3+RCM: 2039-2069)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 19.5 20 20.5

• MeanTmax. (Raw-GFDL+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 19.5 20 20.5

• MeanTmin. (Raw-CCSM+RCM: 2039-2069)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 19.5 20 20.5

• Approx. +2`C =
• Approx. +2`C =
• Approx. +2`C =

2039~2069 CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

14.5˚C 18.5˚C

Tmax spatial distribution

• MeanTmax. (Gobs: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 27 27.5 28 28.5 29 29.5 30

• MeanTmax. (Raw-CCSM+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 27 27.5 28 28.5 29 29.5 30

Observation

1969~1999

• MeanTmax. (Raw-HadCM3+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 27 27.5 28 28.5 29 29.5 30

• MeanTmax. (Raw-GFDL+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 27 27.5 28 28.5 29 29.5 30

• MeanTmax. (Raw-CCSM+RCM: 2039-2069)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 30 30.5 31 31.5 32 32.5 33

• Approx. +3`C =
• MeanTmax. (Raw-HadCM3+RCM: 2039-2069)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 30 30.5 31 31.5 32 32.5 33

• Approx. +3`C =
• Approx. +2`C = MeanTmax. (Raw-GFDL+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 29 29.5 30 30.5 31 31.5 32

2039~2069 CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

27˚C 30 ˚C

Raw results

1.1 Mean daily Tmax & Tmin

5 15 25 35 45 mean temperature ('C)

CCSM

5 15 25 35 45 mean temperature ('C)

HadCM3

5 15 25 35 45 mean temperature ('C)

GFDL

• bs_Tmax
• Retro. _Tmax

Future_Tmax

• bs_Tmin
• Retro. _Tmin

Future_Tmin

Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin

5 15 25 35 45 mean temperature ('C)

CCSM

5 15 25 35 45 mean temperature ('C)

HadCM3

5 15 25 35 45 mean Tmax ('C)

GFDL

Bias-corrected results

Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin

1 2 3 4 mean change of raw Tmax ('C)

Raw results

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL 1 2 3 4 mean change of raw Tmin ('C)

Raw results

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

Raw results

1 2 3 4 mean change of BC Tmax ('C)

Bias-corrected results

CCSM monthly CCSM ±15 CCSM ±30 HadCM3 monthly HadCM3 ±15 HadCM3 ±30 GFDL monthly GFDL ±15 GFDL ±30 1 2 3 4 mean change of BC Tmin ('C)

Bias-corrected results

CCSM monthly CCSM ±15 CCSM ±30 HadCM3 monthly HadCM3 ±15 HadCM3 ±30 GFDL monthly GFDL ±15 GFDL ±30

Bias-corrected results

1.2 Mean temperature change: 2039~2069 – 1969~1999

Tmax Tmin

• II. Precipitation
• Spatial distribution of mean precipitation

(map comparison)

• Annual cycle of

– Monthly mean precipitiation – Differences between the simulations for 1969~1999 & 2039~2069

2.1 Raw Precipitation results

• MeanPrec. (Gobs: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9

• MeanPrec. (Raw-CCSM+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

• MeanPrec. (Raw-HadCM3+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5

• Raw CCSM results

significantly underestimate the mean precp. by 2.5mm

• ver the region
• Raw HadCM3 and GFDL

results overestimate by 1~2mm

• Based on the future

scenario, precipitation may decrease or increase

• MeanPrec. (Raw-GFDL+RCM: 1969-1999)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5

Observation

1969~1999 CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

3.9mm 3.3mm

= =

1.8mm 0.8mm

≠

Way off!! underestimated

• MeanPrec. (Raw-CCSM+RCM: 2039-2069)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

• MeanPrec. (Raw-HadCM3+RCM: 2039-2069)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5

• MeanPrec. (Raw-GFDL+RCM: 2039-2069)
• 83
• 82.5
• 82
• 81.5
• 81

27 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5

2039~2069

> ≅ <

Even lower

Raw results

2.2 Mean daily precipitation

2 4 6 8 mean precipiatation (mm)

CCSM

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 2 4 6 8

HadCM3

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 2 4 6 8

GFDL

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 2 4 6 8

HadCM3

Bias-corrected results

2 4 6 8 mean precipiatation (mm)

CCSM

• bs

Retro._monthly CDF Retro._Moving window CDF (±15) Retro._Moving window CDF (±30) Future_monthly CDF Future_Moving window CDF (±15) Future_Moving window CDF (±30)

2 4 6 8

GFDL

2.3 Mean precipitation change: 2039~2069 – 1969~1999

• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec mean change of raw precip. (mm)

Raw results

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

wet projection dry projection Rainy wet season

• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec mean change of BC precip. (mm)

Bias-corrected results

CCSM monthly CCSM ±15 CCSM ±30 HadCM3 monthly HadCM3 ±15 HadCM3 ±30 GFDL monthly GFDL ±15 GFDL ±30

Raw results Bias-corrected results

• III. Hydrologic implications
• Annual ET, ET fraction (ET/Precip.)
• Mean streamflow
• Design flow estimations

Integrated Hydrologic Model

• TBW and SWFWMD commissioned the development and application of an integrated surface

water/groundwater model for the Tampa Bay Region.

• The Integrated Hydrologic Model (IHM) was developed which integrates the EPA Hydrologic

Simulation Program-Fortran for surface-water modeling with the US Geological Survey MODFLOW96 for groundwater modeling.

Ross et al., 2004 (IHM theory manual)

Tampa Bay region

3.1 ET estimations

Annual average ET (mm/year) ET fraction (ET/Precp.)

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 21st 21st 21st cal. CCSM GFDL HadCM3 ET/P (%)

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 21st 21st 21st cal. CCSM GFDL HadCM3 Evapotranspiration (mm/year)

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

Retrospective simulation results

3.2 mean streamflow

(Alafia River station)

Future simulations

10 20 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

Alafia River

Obs (1989-2005) Cal (1989-2005) CCSM_20th_BC1 HadCM3_20th_BC1 GFDL_20th_BC1 10 20 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

Alafia River

Obs (1989-2005) Cal (1989-2005) CCSM_21st_BC1 CCSM_21st_BC5 CCSM_21st_BC9 CCSM_21st_delta 10 20 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

Alafia River

Obs (1989-2005) Cal (1989-2005) HadCM3_21st_BC1 HadCM3_21st_BC5 HadCM3_21st_BC9 HadCM3_21st_delta 10 20 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

Alafia River

Obs (1989-2005) Cal (1989-2005) GFDL_21st_BC1 GFDL_21st_BC5 GFDL_21st_BC9 GFDL_21st_delta

BC1: bias-correction using monthly CDF BC5: bias-correction using ±15 CDF BC9: bias-correction using ± 30 CDF Streamflow Change (Future-retro.)

• 20
• 10

10 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

Alafia River

CCSM_21st-20th_BC1 CCSM_21st-20th_BC5 CCSM_21st-20th_BC9 CCSM_21st-20th_delta CCSM_21st20th-_delta_monthly

• 20
• 10

10 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

Alafia River

HadCM3_21st-20th_BC1 HadCM3_21st-20th_BC5 HadCM3_21st-20th_BC9 HadCM3_21st-20th_delta

• 20
• 10

10 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

Alafia River

GFDL_21st-20th_BC1 GFDL_21st-20th_BC5 GFDL_21st-20th_BC9 GFDL_21st-20th_delta

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

3.2 mean streamflow

(Alafia River station)

Streamflow Change (Future-retro.)

• 20
• 10

10 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

Alafia River

CCSM_21st-20th_BC1 CCSM_21st-20th_BC5 CCSM_21st-20th_BC9 CCSM_21st-20th_delta CCSM_21st20th-_delta_monthly

• 20
• 10

10 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

Alafia River

HadCM3_21st-20th_BC1 HadCM3_21st-20th_BC5 HadCM3_21st-20th_BC9 HadCM3_21st-20th_delta

• 20
• 10

10 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

Alafia River

GFDL_21st-20th_BC1 GFDL_21st-20th_BC5 GFDL_21st-20th_BC9 GFDL_21st-20th_delta

• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec mean change of BC precip. (mm)

Precipitation Change (Future-retro.)

0.6 1.2 Obs. Cal. 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 21st 21st 21st CCSM GFDL HadCM3 7Q2_LowFlow (m3/s)

Alafia River

152 304 Obs. Cal. 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 21st 21st 21st CCSM GFDL HadCM3 7Q10_HighFlow (m3/s)

Alafia River

7Q10 high flow

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

3.3 Design flow estimation

7Qxx high (low) flow means the average maximum (minimum) flow for seven consecutive days that has probable recurrence interval of once in xx years, respectively.

7Q2 low flow

Conclusions

Used 3 dynamically downscaled GCMs (i.e., CCSM, Had3CM, GFDL), 3 CDF construction strategies for CDF mapping bias-correction, and monthly delta method for future scenarios

• Differences among GCM projections overwhelmed differences among bias

correction techniques.

• Temperature Results

– All GCMs successfully reproduced spatial distribution and mean climatology of retrospective daily temperature – All consistently estimated 2-3oC increase of mean temperature for future (2039~2069) under future A2 scenario.

• Precipitation Results

– Dynamically downscaled retrospective CCSM predictions are way off! – Retrospective HadCM3 and GFDL reproduce seasonal cycle of precipitation.(e.g., wet summer) – Different GCMs produced conflicting precipitation change estimates for future A2 scenarios (some higher, some lower)

Conclusions continued

• Hydrologic implications

– Even with consistent increased temperature estimates, differences among future precipitation estimates propagate into significant differences in future hydrologic predictions ( i.e. ET, mean streamflow predictions, and 7Q10 estimates). – Precipitation signal overwhelms temperature signal in predicting hydrologic implications of projected future changes.

• Q. How many GCMs are required to get an accurate

representation of range of possible future precipitation projections and thus range of possible hydrologic change?

• Q. Should we continue to use CCSM in our analysis?

Possible Future Work

• Consider other climate model products & GHG scenarios…

– NARCCAP, CMIP5, COAPS products, etc.?

• Other methodologies to downscale/bias-correct climate

model results?

– Statistical downscaling methods in order to increase number of GCMs considered?

• For other regions of Florida?

– Using hydrologic models from other agencies

Supplements

Bias-correction (BC) Methodology

• Future Bias Correction methods: CDF mapping

CDF: 1 Precipitation

Sim_retro. Sim_future

BC_retro

+

raw 2 raw1

• bs

Sim_future Sim_retro.

Bias-corrected Sim_future

BC-Sim_future

Bias-corrected Sim_future

BC-Sim_future

Example 1 Example 2

• 3 different CDFs

1. Monthly CDF (≈30data) 2. CDF for moving window (± 30 days, 61data) 3. CDF for moving window (± 15 days, 31data)

Raw results

1.3 Standard deviation (Stdev.) of daily Tmax & Tmin

2 4 6 8 STD of daily Tmax ('C)

CCSM

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 2 4 6 8

HadCM3

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 2 4 6 8

GFDL

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 2 4 6 8 STD of daily Tmin ('C)

CCSM

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 2 4 6 8

HadCM3

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 2 4 6 8

GFDL

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw

Tmax Tmin

Raw results Bias-corrected results

1.4 Mean change of Stdev. : 2039~2069 – 1969~1999

Tmax Tmin

• 1

1 STD change of raw Tmax ('C)

Raw results

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

• 1

1 STD change of raw Tmin ('C)

Raw results

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

• 1

1 STD change of BC Tmax ('C)

Bias-corrected results

CCSM monthly CCSM ±15 CCSM ±30 HadCM3 monthly HadCM3 ±15 HadCM3 ±30 GFDL monthly GFDL ±15 GFDL ±30

• 1

1 STD change of BC Tmin ('C)

Bias-corrected results

CCSM monthly CCSM ±15 CCSM ±30 HadCM3 monthly HadCM3 ±15 HadCM3 ±30 GFDL monthly GFDL ±15 GFDL ±30

Raw results

2.2 Stdev. of daily precipitation

Bias-corrected results

5 10 15 20

• std. of daily precip. (mm)

CCSM

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 5 10 15 20

HadCM3

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 5 10 15 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

GFDL

• bs
• Retro. _Raw

Future_Raw 5 10 15 20 25

HadCM3

5 10 15 20 25

GFDL

5 10 15 20 25

• std. of daily precipiatation (mm)

CCSM

• bs

Retro._monthly CDF Retro._Moving window CDF (±15) Retro._Moving window CDF (±30) Future_monthly CDF Future_Moving window CDF (±15) Future_Moving window CDF (±30)

Raw results Bias-corrected results

2.3 Precipitation change: 2039~2069 – 1969~1999

• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3 mean change of raw precip. (mm)

Raw results

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

wet projection dry projection Rainy wet season

• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3 mean change of BC precip. (mm)

Bias-corrected results

CCSM monthly CCSM ±15 CCSM ±30 HadCM3 monthly HadCM3 ±15 HadCM3 ±30 GFDL monthly GFDL ±15 GFDL ±30

• 10
• 5

5 10 STD change of raw precip. (mm)

Raw results

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

• 10
• 5

5 10 STD change of BC precip. (mm)

Bias-corrected results

CCSM monthly CCSM ±15 CCSM ±30 HadCM3 monthly HadCM3 ±15 HadCM3 ±30 GFDL monthly GFDL ±15 GFDL ±30

Mean change Stdev. change

3.1 ET estimations

Annual average ET (mm/year) ET rate (ET/Precp.)

50 60 70 80 90 100 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta T+1 T+2 T+3 21st 21st 21st cal. CCSM GFDL HadCM3 ±T test ET/P (%) 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta 20th_BC monthly CDF ±15 CDF ±30 CDF delta T+1 T+2 T+3 21st 21st 21st cal. CCSM GFDL HadCM3 ±T test Evapotranspiration (mm/year)

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

Retrospective simulation results

3.2 mean streamflow

(Hillsborough River station)

Future simulations

10 20 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

• Hills. River

Obs (1989-2005) Cal (1989-2005) CCSM_20th_BC1 HadCM3_20th_BC1 GFDL_20th_BC1 10 20 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

• Hills. River

Obs (1989-2005) Cal (1989-2005) CCSM_21st_BC1 CCSM_21st_BC5 CCSM_21st_BC9 CCSM_21st_delta 10 20 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

• Hills. River

Obs (1989-2005) Cal (1989-2005) HadCM3_21st_BC1 HadCM3_21st_BC5 HadCM3_21st_BC9 HadCM3_21st_delta 10 20 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

• Hills. River

Obs (1989-2005) Cal (1989-2005) GFDL_21st_BC1 GFDL_21st_BC5 GFDL_21st_BC9 GFDL_21st_delta

• 20
• 10

10 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

• Hills. MB

CCSM_21st-20th_BC1 CCSM_21st-20th_BC5 CCSM_21st-20th_BC9 CCSM_21st-20th_delta CCSM_21st20th-_delta_monthly

• 20
• 10

10 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

• Hills. MB

HadCM3_21st-20th_BC1 HadCM3_21st-20th_BC5 HadCM3_21st-20th_BC9 HadCM3_21st-20th_delta

• 20
• 10

10 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean streamflow (m3s-1)

• Hills. MB

GFDL_21st-20th_BC1 GFDL_21st-20th_BC5 GFDL_21st-20th_BC9 GFDL_21st-20th_delta

Streamflow Change (Future-retro.) BC1: bias-correction using monthly CDF BC1: bias-correction using ±15 CDF BC1: bias-correction using ± 30 CDF

7Q10 7Q2

CCSM HadCM3 GFDL CCSM HadCM3 GFDL

3.3 Design flow estimation

152 304

7Q10_HighFlow (m3/s) Alafia River

51 102

7Q2_HighFlow (m3/s) Alafia River

104 208

7Q10_HighFlow (m3/s) Hillsborough River

46 92

7Q2_HighFlow (m3/s) Hillsborough River

7Q10 and 7Q2 means the average maximum flow for seven consecutive days that has probable recurrence interval of once in ten and two years, respectively.