Climate Change in the West Kootenay Trends and Projections Overview - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Change in the West Kootenay Trends and Projections Overview - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 19, 2024 24 likes •627 views

Climate Change in the West Kootenay Trends and Projections Overview Introduction to climate science Climate change over the last century Projections of future climate Probability based risk management Probability of The Bell Curve

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SLIDE 1

Climate Change in the West Kootenay Trends and Projections

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SLIDE 2

Overview

Introduction to climate science Climate change over the last century Projections of future climate Probability – based risk management

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SLIDE 3

The Bell Curve Low High Average Probability of

  • ccurrence

24 30 18 1 6 21

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SLIDE 4

Increase in Mean Temperature Cold Hot Average Historical Climate Probability of

  • ccurrence
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SLIDE 5

Less cold weather Historical Climate New Climate More hot weather Cold Hot Average More Record hot weather Increase in Mean Temperature Probability of

  • ccurrence
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SLIDE 6

More hot weather More cold weather Increase in Variance Cold Hot Average Historical Climate New Climate More record cold weather More record hot weather Probability of

  • ccurrence
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SLIDE 7

Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance Cold Hot Average Historical Climate Probability of

  • ccurrence
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SLIDE 8

Less change In cold weather Cold Hot Average Historical Climate New Climate Much more hot weather and record hot weather Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance Probability of

  • ccurrence
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SLIDE 9

Northern Hemisphere Land Summer Temperature

Extremely Cold Cold Normal Hot Extremely Hot

1951-1980 Base period More frequent Summer temperatures In the Northern Hemisphere

About 80% of summers are hot and extremely hot compared with mid-20th century

Modified from New York Times, July 28, 2017

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SLIDE 10

Trends and Variability

Credit: Teddy TV and NRK

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SLIDE 11

Climate Change: Long-term trends or major shifts in climate (multi-decadal to century-scale)

Average Annual Temperature over the last century

3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Temperature oC

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SLIDE 12

*

Spatial Variability

*

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SLIDE 13

*

Spatial Variability

*

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SLIDE 14

* * *

Spatial Variability

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SLIDE 15

* *

Spatial Variability

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SLIDE 16

*

Spatial Variability

* * *

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SLIDE 17

*

Spatial Variability

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SLIDE 18

SW Basin Climate Stations

Local Climate History

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SLIDE 19

Temperature oC

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature

  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

GRFRKS WARFLD CSTGR FAUQR CRSTN KASLO

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SLIDE 20

6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature

Temperature oC +2.8oC/Century +1.5oC/Century

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SLIDE 21
  • 8.0
  • 7.0
  • 6.0
  • 5.0
  • 4.0
  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0

Temperature oC +2.1oC/Century +3.2oC/Century

SW Basin Mean Winter Temperature

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SLIDE 22

16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0

Temperature oC +1.1oC/Century +3.2oC/Century

SW Basin Mean Summer Temperature

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SLIDE 23

350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050

Precipitation (mm) +226mm/Century +152mm/Century

SW Basin Mean Annual Precipitation

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SLIDE 24

50 100 150 200 250 300

SW Basin Mean Seasonal Precipitation

Precipitation (mm) Winter -38mm/Century Fall +100mm/Century Summer -69mm/Century Spring +156mm/Century

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SLIDE 25

1922 1958 2017 2018

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SLIDE 26

1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

20 70 120 170 220 270 320 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 Precipitation (mm) Temperature (oC)

SW Basin Temperature vs Rain (JJA)

COOL & WET HOT & DRY

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SLIDE 27

1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20 70 120 170 220 270 320 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 Precipitation (mm) Temperature (oC)

SW Basin Temperature vs Rain (JJA)

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SLIDE 28

1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20 70 120 170 220 270 320 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 Precipitation (mm) Temperature (oC)

SW Basin Temperature vs Rain (JJA)

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SLIDE 29

Fire Danger Rating – Aug 12, 2017

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SLIDE 30

6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5

Temperature oC

9.0oC

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature

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SLIDE 31
  • 8.0
  • 7.0
  • 6.0
  • 5.0
  • 4.0
  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0

Temperature oC

  • 4.5oC

SW Basin Mean Winter Temperature

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SLIDE 32

20 40 60 80 100 120

June 19, 2013. Rainfall = 98.4 mm 20th Century June Precipitation = 65.0 mm June 19-21, 2013 Rainfall = 121.2 mm (approx 2 x June monthly average in three days)

Kaslo Daily Precipitation – 1920-2013

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SLIDE 33
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SLIDE 34

100 80 60 40 20

  • 20

Emissions from fossil fuels and cement (GtCO2/yr) Historical emissions Business as usual

> +4oC

Paris Agreement pledges

~ +3oC

Major emission reductions

~ +2.5oC

Paris Agreement goals

~ +2oC

2017

Global Emissions Scenarios to 2100

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SLIDE 35

Why a few degrees matter

4-5oC

2012 Last Glacial Maximum

Source: Zurich University of Applied Sciences Source: NASA

e.g. Heinemann et al., 2014 Annan et al., 2013 Shakun et al 2012 Annan & Hargreaves, 2015

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SLIDE 36

Nov 28, 2017 – “Although you will not see this much in the media, climate model projections have turned out to be exaggerated if not spectacularly wrong”

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SLIDE 37
  • 0.75
  • 0.25

0.25 0.75 1.25

Temperature (oC)

Berkeley Earth vs CMIP 5 - Mean Annual Temperature

  • 0.75
  • 0.25

0.25 0.75 1.25

Temperature (oC)

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SLIDE 38

"The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks."

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SLIDE 39

Science, Vol. 189, No. 4201 (Aug. 8, 1975), pp. 460-463

  • 0.50
  • 0.40
  • 0.30
  • 0.20
  • 0.10

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30

NASA Mean Annual Temperature

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SLIDE 40

Wuebbles, D.J., et. Al., 2017

US Global Change Research Program

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SLIDE 41

Castlegar Mean Annual Temperature RCP4.5

+2.6oC

Mean 1961-1990

8.8oC

Mean 2041-2070

11.3oC

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SLIDE 42

Castlegar Mean Annual Temperature RCP8.5

+3.2oC

Mean 1961-1990

8.8oC

Mean 2041-2070

12.0oC

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SLIDE 43

Castlegar Mean Annual Precipitation

+7% to +5%

Mean 1961-1990

713mm

Mean 2041-2070

766-877mm

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SLIDE 44

Winter Precipitation +9% to +8% Winter Temperature +2.8 to +3.2 oC

Warmer Wetter Winters

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SLIDE 45

Hotter, Drier Summers

Summer Temperature +2.5 to +3.5 oC Summer Precipitation

  • 15% to -14%
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SLIDE 46

Castlegar days per year above 25oC

+36 Days

Mean 1961-1990

70 days

Mean 2041-2070

106 days

Mean 2041-2070

99 days

+30 Days

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SLIDE 47

More extreme precipitation

Maximum 1-day precipitation +17% to +15%

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SLIDE 48

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature

Frequency

  • C

25 5 15 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Mean 7.7 oC 20th Century climate

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SLIDE 49

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature

Frequency 1961-1990 Baseline 7.8 oC 25 10 5 15 20 20th Century climate Mean 7.7 oC Projected climate during 2050s RCP 4.5 2.6 oC

  • C

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 10.4 oC

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SLIDE 50

6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature

+2.8oC/Century Temperature oC 2071 10.4oC (RCP4.5)

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SLIDE 51

Basin Mean Annual Temperature

72

Mean Annual Temperature Hotter, Drier Summers Warmer Wetter Winters More Extreme Precipitation

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SLIDE 52

Basin Mean Annual Temperature

73 73

Basin MAT = 1.5 oC Basin MAT = 4.9 oC

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SLIDE 53

It’s real, it’s a problem, it’s coming - NOW WHAT?

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SLIDE 54

Lcap

Localized Climate Analysis and Prediction

The CRC Lcap software package takes the planning process beyond the general climate projections and facilitates quantitative, probability-based planning for specific business and/or community infrastructure and operations.

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SLIDE 55

There is uncertainty around the range of model projections. Which model should we choose? The worst choice is to assume stationarity City of Edmonton - Highest Maximum Temperature

39oC

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SLIDE 56

1) All Models: Probability

  • f exceeding 39oC

Edmonton -Model Selection – Hottest Day ‘No Regrets’ ‘Worst Case’

Probability (%)

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SLIDE 57

Edmonton Mean Annual Temperature

Variability Trend

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SLIDE 58

1) Replication of

  • bserved variance

2) Replication of

  • bserved trend

Edmonton -Model Selection – Hottest Day

Historical Climate (AHCCD) Ensemble Median

MIROC5 RCP8.5 MPI ESM LR RCP8.5

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SLIDE 59

5 10 15 20 25

Edmonton - Probability of Exceeding 39 oC

MIROC5 MPI_ESM_LR SYN PROB

Probability (%) Probability >39oC exceeds 5%

~ 2055 - 2060

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SLIDE 60

Lcap

Localized Climate Analysis and Prediction

NOW WHAT? START PLANNING!