Climate change frustration WHAT ROLE FOR THE PUBLIC SCIENTIST? - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate change frustration WHAT ROLE FOR THE PUBLIC SCIENTIST? - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 23, 2022 296 likes •1.37k views

Climate change frustration WHAT ROLE FOR THE PUBLIC SCIENTIST? Lesley Hughes It is time to stop waffling so much and say that the evidence is pretty strong that the greenhouse effect is here.' What did we know when? Why should we

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Lesley Hughes

Climate change frustration

WHAT ROLE FOR THE PUBLIC SCIENTIST?

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“It is time to stop waffling so much and say that the evidence is pretty strong that the greenhouse effect is here.'’

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What did we know when? Why should we care? Why is the message so hard? How should scientists respond?

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Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier 1768-1830

"Remarques Générales Sur Les Températures Du Globe Terrestre Et Des Espaces Planétaires” (1824)

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John Tyndall 1820-1893

1859: generally credited as being the first to correctly measure the relative infrared absorptive powers of nitrogen, oxygen, CO2, methane, water vapour, thus proving the Greenhouse Effect existed

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Eunice Newton Foote 1819-1888

1856: research presented to conference that “The highest effects of the sun’s rays I have found to be in carbonic acid gas”

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Arvid Högbom 1857-1940

First to quantify sources of CO2 emissions (human and natural) to understand the carbon cycle

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Svante Arrhenius 1859-1927

1896: realised that Högbom’s calculations meant that human influences could eventually lead to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 – coined term “Greenhouse Effect” 2 x CO2 ~ 5-6oC Predicted warming of the earth….in thousands of years

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Guy Callendar 1897-1964

1938: promoted the idea that rising CO2 would promote warming (eventually known as the Callendar Effect) but thought this would be beneficial, delaying “the return of the deadly glaciers”

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Charles Keeling 1928-2005

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5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

N=294,837

  • No. papers with (global warming) or (clim* change) in Web of Science 1981-2017
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IPCC First Assessment Report (1990)

  • “…warming of the globe of 0.3 – 0.6oC has

taken place over the last century”

  • “Emissions resulting from human activities

are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse”

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Second Assessment Report (1995)

"the observed trend in global mean temperature over the past 100 years is unlikely to be entirely natural in

  • rigin. …..... these results point

towards a human influence on global climate”.

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Third Assessment Report (2001)

“New and strong evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributed to human activities”

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Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

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Fifth Assessment Report (2013)

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented

  • ver decades to millennia”

“Human influence on the climate system is

  • clear. It is extremely likely (95-100%

probability) that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951-2010”

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…most scrutinised report in history?

  • 3 Working Group Reports + Synthesis report
  • ~2500 pages
  • 4 drafts
  • 800 authors (from 3000 nominations)
  • 142,631 comments
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Why should we care?

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alarmist əˈlɑːmɪst/

noun 1.1. someone who exaggerates a danger and so causes needless worry or panic adjective 2.2 Creating needless alarm or panic

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7000 years ~40 years

Climate changing 170 times faster (70s to 2016) than in previous 7000 years

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http://www.climate-lab- book.ac.uk/2016/spiralling-global- temperatures/

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2016: another record year

  • 2017 third warmest

year in history

  • Warmest non El

Niño year

  • 16 of the 17

warmest years

  • ccurred since 2000
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Glaciers are retreating

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1941

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1950

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2004

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  • Himalaya-Hindu Kush mountain range & Tibetan Plateau
  • Source of 10 major river systems, providing water for >

1.3 billion people – nearly 20% of world population

  • Warming 2X global average, 500 glaciers already gone
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Polar ice is melting

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Sea level rise is accelerating

Pace has tripled since 1990s

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  • 50% Australian coastline vulnerable to recession by 2100
  • In Sydney, 1-in-100 year flood could occur every day by 2100
  • For 110cm m slr: >$200 billion assets at risk
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Oceans 30% more acidic than pre-industrial

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Coral reefs are bleaching

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  • 2016-17: catastrophic bleaching on Great Barrier Reef
  • 93% individual reefs affected
  • 50% mortality of bleached coral
  • $7 billion
  • >60,000 jobs
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Europe: 2003 70,000 premature deaths

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Russia: 2010 56,000 premature deaths

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Black Saturday 2009: 173 deaths

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  • More than 370 deaths from heat-related

causes during preceding week

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North Atlantic hurricanes increasing

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2015: 19 million people displaced 2007-2016: 46% increase in weather-related disasters

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Tipping point

noun the point at which a series

  • f small changes or

incidents becomes significant enough to cause larger, more important changes

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1-3oC

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3-5oC

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4oC

Submergence of land currently occupied by 470-760 million people

Tuvalu 4.6m Ganges megadelta, Bangladesh Maldives 2.4 m

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Beyond 5oC

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“What is the difference between a 2o and 4oC world?” “Human civilisation”

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So what are our chances?

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Carbon budget = quantity of greenhouse gas emissions that can be emitted in total over a specified time for a specified amount of warming

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2oC 1.5oC 2015

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2oC 1.5oC 2015

~ 20 years emissions left

71% spent

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2oC 1.5oC 2015

~ 20 years emissions left

71% spent

~ 3 years emissions left

95% spent

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2oC 1.5oC 2015

~ 20 years emissions left

71% spent

~ 3 years emissions left

95% spent

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>90% Australia’s known extractable coal reserves must stay in ground

Unburnable coal

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Global Carbon Budget, released 13/11/17

2% increase in 2017

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  • highest CO2 or at least 5 million

years

  • Last time CO2 was this high, sea

levels ~20m higher than present and global temperatures 2-3oC higher

  • Paris pledges only one third of

what is needed for 2oC target

Emissions Gap Report 2017

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Carbon pricing

Carbon price imposed Carbon price repealed

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Climate Action Tracker estimates Australia on track to increase emissions 27% on 2005 by 2030 “Australia stands out as having the largest relative gap between current policy projections for 2030 and the INDC target”

Australia’s commitment

26-28% reduction on 2005, by 2030 (Climate Change Authority recommended 40-60% target)

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Australia

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Why is the message so hard?

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It’s complicated

probability may could uncertain likely

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It’s scary

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It’s sad

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Often presented as “only” an environmental problem

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It can seem like a long way off….

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….....or happening to someone else

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The tap keeps running after you turn it off

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There are loud & powerful voices, ideology, and $$$ arrayed against

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(Some of) the media continues to focus on the false debate

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There are other important concerns

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Tragedy of the commons problem like no other

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Survey 2017 2,660 Australians across the country including 600 each in QLD, NSW and VIC, and 400 each in SA & WA

http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/ TCI0004_COTN_2017_final_version.pdf

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How should scientists respond?

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Key messages

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Is this how you feel? (http://www.isthishowyoufeel.com/this-is-how-scientists-feel.html)

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angry furious frustrated

  • verwhelmed

discouraged powerless desperate nightmare

  • utraged

nobody’s listening perplexed dismayed depressed sad scared

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angry furious frustrated

  • verwhelmed

discouraged powerless desperate nightmare

  • utraged

nobody’s listening perplexed dismayed depressed sad scared hope

  • ptimistic

unwilling to give up

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5 things I’ve learnt

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5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

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  • 1. More information doesn’t

necessarily mean more understanding …..& more understanding doesn’t necessarily mean more action

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  • 2. Need to continually search for more

meaningful (local) narratives

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  • 2. Need to continually search for more

meaningful (local) narratives

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advocacy ˈadvəkəsi/ ….......is not a dirty word Noun public support for or recommendation

  • f a particular cause or policy

3.

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  • 4. Need to overwhelm the negative with

the positive…....

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….and emphasise the achievable

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  • 5. We cannot be effective alone
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www.climatecouncil.org.au www.facebook.com/climatecouncil

climatecouncil

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1988 2015

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activist ˈaktɪvɪst/ noun a person who campaigns to bring about political or social change.

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