Dave Hansen Univ. of MN Climate change and MN forests Lee E. Frelich Director, The University of Minnesota Center for Forest Ecology Vice President, Eastern Native Tree Society freli001@umn.edu John Knuerr
Minnesota will likely have the summer climate of NB and KS by the end of the century. This will cause northward range shifts of ca 300 miles for most tree species
Balsam ¡fir ¡abundance: ¡ ¡ Current ¡FIA ¡compared ¡to ¡ ¡ predic8ons ¡for ¡high ¡ ¡ emissions ¡scenario ¡ Source: ¡USDA ¡Climate ¡and ¡Tree ¡Atlas ¡ Current FIA abundance Predicted high scenario
Forest cover of central North America (green) DeFries, R., M. Hansen, J.R.G. Townshend, A.C. Janetos, and T.R. Loveland (2000), 1 Kilometer Tree Cover Continuous Fields, 1.0, Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 1992-1993. It is possible that the prairie-forest-border will move 300 miles to the north and east by 2100, deforesting an area 2X the size of California
Biome map of Minnesota by MNDOT Boreal (spruce-fir-jack pine) forests of the north will be replaced by: • Red maple & other hard- woods on deeper soils • Oak savanna on shallow or sandy soils
The BWCAW today Photos: Minneapolis Star Tribune, Lee Frelich
And the BWCAW tomorrow The Prairie Enthusiasts Photos: Ben Kimball, Prairie Enthusiasts, Paul Ojanen Molly McGovern
Losers U.S. Endangered Species Program Ruth Sullivan Parks Canada U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Peter Mirejovsky Winners
Warmer climate, More frequent and longer Longer growing season droughts CO2 fertilization Warmer and Exotic earthworms drier soil spread faster Lower soil N deposition nutrient status More deer Several factors will Kill seedlings reinforce the impacts More fires and prevent reproduction of warmer temperatures More wind storms Kill adult trees Savannification and lack of replacement Pests and diseases spread faster Frelich and Reich 2010 Frontiers in Ecology and The Environment
Photo: Dave Hansen More drought = trees under stress and forest dieback Minnesota North Shore 2010. Photo: Dave Hansen
Native insects play a major role in forest change Benign native insects can have outbreaks in a warmer climate. For example, mountain pine beetle in British Columbia—a native insect that caused massive tree mortality over 30 million acres of lodgepole pine forest, and could threaten jack pine in MN
Wind plus fire = major forest transformation Nick ¡Fisichelli ¡and ¡Roy ¡Rich, ¡Cavity ¡Lake ¡Burn, ¡Seagull ¡Lake, ¡July ¡2007. ¡ ¡ ¡ Photo: ¡Dave ¡Hansen, ¡University ¡of ¡MN ¡
1990 Deer causing ‘Savannification’ of forest--increasing deer density in Sylvania Wilderness from 1990 to 2006 2006
Base of balsam fir, stage 5 earthworm invasion BWCAW, July 2011. Photo: Doug Wallace
We are observing these changes in the forest now Layne Kennedy Lee Frelich and clones at work during Ham Lake Fire, Seagull Lake, May 6, 2007
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