Climate change and hydrological extreme events Risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec Ralf Ludwig for the ClimEx group ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017
2 ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 Partnership
Background Major flood events in Bavaria Major flood events in Québec 1999/2002/2005/2013/2016 1996/2011/2017 « Extreme precipitation events over most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will very likely become more intense and more frequent. » - IPCC AR5 report ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 3
Research gaps • Confirm knowledge on whether and how climate change contributes to higher magnitudes and frequencies of extreme events • Distinguish between the effects of natural variability and a ‘ clear’ climate change signal • Develop a pool of methods for improved analysis of hydro- meteorological extreme events • Adapt regional water resources management effectively to the risks associated with such dynamical changes ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 4
Proj ect Rationale • A practical example of variability (from a statistical approach)… the Danube Schulz & Bernhard, 2016 ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 5
New Challenges • Use high-resolution RCM data for an improved identification of (potential) hydro-meteorological extreme events 95th percentile of daily precipitation in the reference period 1970-2000 (EURO-CORDEX Proj ekt, RCM HIRHAM (EUR44 und EUR11) ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 6
New Challenges • Downscaling of a large scale single GCM ensemble to determine the natural variability in extreme events (and separate from climate change signal) [here: CES M1 (30) over Northern Quebec] 7 ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017
New Challenges • Use high-resolution hydrological modeling to better understand the processes and patterns leading to hydrological extreme events • The question of scale imposes great challenges to modeling, computing … process understanding! • New type of study requires the powers of High Performance Computing (HPC) • The example from the past vs. the present & future… ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 8
Proj ect structure - workflow Module A: Module B: CLIMATE HYDRO Module Z: Information Technology / Super Computing ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 9
Proj ect structure - workflow WaSiM (500m, 3h), (HBV) SCALMET (from 12km to <1km) QQM (+ LS, LIS, …) CRCM5 (+ Euro ‐ CORDEX), 0.11° CanESM2 (+ Euro ‐ CORDEX) RCP 8.5 ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 10
Climate model domains European Domain North American Domain ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 11
Climate model domains European Domain North American Domain ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 12
13 ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 Québec domain Hydrological model domains Bavarian domain
Module A –CLIMATE ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 14
Natural variability? How does it look like in a Large S cale S ingle Model Ensemble? With 50 model members, we are practically increasing the database 50 ‐ fold; e.g. to estimate the robustness of natural variability in the time frame of 1981 ‐ 2010, we possess not 30 but 1500 (model years) in high temporal and spatial resolution (1 ‐ 3h, 12km) estimation of rare extreme events in a given time period becomes much more robust… ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 15 Time (days since 1950-01-01)
First results over NE-America 50 possible future changes for PRC (in % ) between 2030-2049 and 1980-1999 over Eastern North America from CanES M2-CRCM5 at a 12-km resolution ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 16
17 ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 First results over Europe (1991-2010)
First results over Europe (1991-2010) ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 18
First results over Europe (1991-2010) ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 19
First results for Bavaria (1960-2100) • Climate change signal and natural variability in the S M- LS -ensemble for Bavaria (1960-2100) • Increasing seasonal variability in precipitation (increase of P in winter, decrease in summer) • Increasing daily variability • S trong temperature increase *2075-2100 currently postprocessed ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 20
First results on a catchment scale (Rott) Monthly mean of daily precipitation (extremes) ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017
Hourly precipitation values for summer (JJA) in the Eastern Alpine Foreland for 1995- Extreme precipitation (valid? ) 2014: Observations (26), MOF (39), CRCM5 (146 tiles, 12km), REMO (234 tiles, 10km) ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 22
Module B –HYDRO ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 23
S cales in hydrological modeling? • Extreme events and temporal resolution… ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 24
S cales in hydrological modeling? • Extreme events and temporal resolution… ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 25
S cales in hydrological modeling? • Extreme events and spatio-temporal resolution… ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 26
S cales in hydrological modeling? • Extreme events and spatio-temporal resolution… high flows HQ ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 27
First hydrological model applications Rott (Ruhstorf = 1049 km²) MQ 9.2 m³/s MHQ 124 m³/s HQ 295 m³/s Iller (Kempten = 955 km²) MQ 46 m³/s MHQ 378 m³/s HQ 884 m³/s ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 28
First hydrological model applications • First results using HBV – Ex. Rott (gauge Ruhstorf); 10 runs per box ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 29
First hydrological model applications • First results using HBV – Ex. Rott (gauge Ruhstorf); snow driven events ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 30
First hydrological model applications • First results using HBV – Ex. Iller (gauge Kempten) ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 31
First hydrological model applications • First results using WaSiM – Ex. Iller (gauge Kempten) ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 32
Module Z – IT ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 33
High Performance Computing • Regional Ensemble Climate modeling – CanES M2-CRCM5 • Data storage and archiving • Calibration of hydrological models (global, local) • Visualisation of model results ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 34
High Performance Computing Visualization (Europe in May 1999; CRCM5 driven with Reanalysis data ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017 35
Thank you! visit us at: www.climex-project.org ICTP Trieste – 16 June 2017
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