SLIDE 1 Climate Change and beyond - the EU project "Climate for Culture"
Grant agreement No. 22 6973 (2009 - 2014)
EU CHIC Meeting
Olimje, Slovenia 30-31 May 2011 Johanna Leissner, Fraunhofer Gesellschaft
SLIDE 2 How do we care for the welfare of future generations? CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
Earth's CO2 Home Page 391.76 ppm atmospheric CO2 for February 2011 Preliminary data released March 8, 2011 (Mauna Loa)
SLIDE 3
- To keep global warming below 2°C, the world will need to halve its
emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by 2050 (compared with 1990 levels).
- Europe has to invest 270 billion € per year for changing industrial
production, renovating buildings and creating CO2-free mobility (Commissioner Hedegaard)
EU plan for a competitive low- carbon economy by 2050 to fight climate change
8 March 2011
SLIDE 4 Climate change impact on cultural heritage
Direct Indirect
- building envelope - T, rH, wind-driven rain, wind speed, solar
radiation, sea level rise and land slide, frost/thaw cycles ...
- building interior - changing indoor conditions ...
- low carbon economy and energy problem, scarcity of resources,
financial crisis, budget restrictions in the public sector
- destabilization of political systems and societies (climate
refugees)
- demographic change / change of interest / no visitors
- destruction, abandoning of land - danger of landslides
SLIDE 5
- High resolution climate modelling
- n a regional scale
- Development of hygrothermal
building simulation software
stakeholder contributions
- Economic impact report like the
Stern Review
Project cornerstones
SLIDE 6 Climate modelling - A1B scenario
Assumptions
growth
population until 2050, decline after 2050
- rapid introduction
- f new and more
efficient technologies
sources
A1B
SLIDE 7
Changes in number of days with TMAX > 30° C
Hot Days A1B
SLIDE 8
Changes in number of days with P < 0.1 mm
Dry Days A1B
SLIDE 9
Changes in number of days with TMAX < 0° C
A1B Ice Days
SLIDE 10
- The climate will change in Europe
even if the 2° goal can be reached!
- Warming up to 3°C, but almost no change in P (< 10%)
- The increase in temperature is regionally different with up to
4 °C in winter in Scandinavia and 3 °C in summer in Southern Europe
- Less ice and cold days (~20-30),
more hot days (but only ~20 compared to > 40 in A1B) more dry days (but only ~10 compared to > 25 in A1B) no change in number of wet days adaptation is needed (but options and costs depend on the level of climatic changes) even more mitigation is needed (to limit climatic changes)
SLIDE 11 Distribution of Case Studies so far
Collection of data from Europe & Egypt climate microclimate building
KYBERTEC Ltd. 2010
SLIDE 12 Climate classification maps Baseline 1960-1989 vs Far Future 2070-2099
by Melanie Eibl, 2011
SLIDE 13 Measured data for a historic building in 2009
?
Hygrothermal building simulation and simulation of global climate change 2010 - 2100
by Ralf Kilian, 2009
Simulation for 2100
SLIDE 14 Church in Roggersdorf – WUFI Plus Simulation
- one-zone, no HVAC
- long term meteorological data
- interior climate measurement
- good knowledge about building structure
SLIDE 15 Source: Google Maps
Distance to Fraunhofer IBP Holzkirchen = 5 km Fraunhofer IBP
SLIDE 16
Detection of new damages in 2009
SLIDE 17
Indoor Environment in St. Margaretha
SLIDE 18 Comparison of measured and simulated exterior data
comparable?
do we have to compare?
statistical methods?
SLIDE 19 by Florian Antretter, 2011
Comparison of measured and modelled data for a building- first results
SLIDE 20
Application of modelled long-time exterior data
less times with temperatures below 0 °C increase in mean level of interior temperature
SLIDE 21 Users Heating HVAC / Infiltration Heat Buffering Moisture Buffering (Interior Surfaces)
Mitigation, Adaptation and Preservation Strategies
Selected existing and innovative methods:
- Conservation heating
- Dehumidification
- Local Wall Heating (Temperierung)
- Controlled ventilation / air exchange
- Equal Moisture Sorption Control
- Passive Control (Insulation, Infiltration, …)
- …
SLIDE 22
Analysis and Decision Support System
SLIDE 23
The Climate for Culture approach
SLIDE 24
- 1. Fraunhofer Gesellschaft zur Förderung der angewandten Forschung e.V., Germany
- 2. Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic
- 3. Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche-Istituto di Scienze dell'atmosfera e del Clima, Italy
- 4. University of Zagreb, Croatia
- 5. Institute of Electronic Structure and Laser, IESL/FORTH, Greece
- 6. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany
- 7. Technische Universität München, Germany
- 8. Eindhoven University of Technology, Netherlands
- 9. University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
- 10. Gradbeni Institut ZRMK, Slovenia
- 11. Gotland University, Sweden
- 12. Andreas Weiß, freelance conservator-restorer, Germany
- 13. Engineering Consulting & Software Development, Poland
- 14. Krah & Grote Measurement Solutions, Germany
- 15. TB Käferhaus GmbH, Austria
- 16. Haftcourt Ltd. UK/Sweden
- 17. ACCIONA, S.A, Spain
- 18. Bayerische Verwaltung der staatlichen Schlösser, Gärten und Seen, Germany
- 19. Bayerische Staatsgemäldesammlungen – Doerner Institut, Germany
- 20. National Trust for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, UK
- 21. Kybertec Ltd., Czech Republic
- 22. Glasgow Caledonian University, UK
- 23. Center for Documentation of Cultural & Natural Heritage, Egypt
- 24. Jonathan Ashley-Smith, Consultant for Conservation Risk Assessment, UK
- 25. Institut National du Patrimoine, France
- 26. London School of Economics & Political Science, UK
- 27. Fondazione Salvatore Maugeri - Clinica del Lavoro e della Riabilitazione, Italy
SLIDE 25
Chancellor Merkel 2006:"Wir dürfen unsere Zukunft nicht verbrauchen!" [We must not use up our future]
Cultural heritage is a non-renewable resource we must take action now! Cultural heritage 2010 Cultural heritage 2100?
?
