cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition 2 Key Stakeholders - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

2 Key Stakeholders Convening Agenda | 10.24.2019 Background Summary of Scenarios​ Key Findings​ Next Steps​ Q & A cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

3 Clean Energy Transition Institute Independent, nonpartisan Northwest research and analysis nonprofit organization with a mission to accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy. Provide information and convene stakeholders. Identifying deep decarbonization strategies​ Analytics, data, best practices​ Nonpartisan information clearinghouse Convenings to facilitate solutions cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

4 Evolved Energy Research Energy consulting firm addresses key energy sector challenges accelerated by changing policy goals and new technology development.​ Developer of planning tools to explore economy-wide decarbonization and electricity system implications​ National and sub-national deep decarbonization studies 2016 study for State of Washington Office of the Governor​ 2018 study for Portland General Electric cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

5 Background cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

6 Why a Northwest Deep Decarbonization Study? Common set of assumptions to inform decisions about how the clean energy transition could unfold over the coming decades Unbiased, analytical baseline for the region Variety of pathways to lower carbon emissions​ Surface trade-offs, challenges, and practical implications of achieving mid-century targets​ Broaden conversations about actions needed cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

7 Study Questions How does the energy sector need to transform in the most technologically and economically efficient way?​ How does electricity generation need to be decarbonized to achieve economy-wide carbon reduction goals?​ What if we can’t achieve high electrification rates?​ What is the most cost-effective use for biomass? What if biomass estimates are wrong?​ What would increased electricity grid transmission between the NW and CA yield? cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

8 Scope Scope​: WA, OR, ID, MT All Energy Sectors Represented: ⁻ Residential and commercial buildings ⁻ Industry ⁻ Transportation ⁻ Electricity generation​ Evaluating holistically provides an understanding of cross-sectoral impacts and trade-offs cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

9 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Context Oregon and Washington GHG Emissions (MMTCO 2 e Energy-related CO 2 emissions comprise more than 80% of all GHG emissions in Oregon and Washington. cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

10 Sources of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions​ Oregon and Washington Energy CO 2 Emissions (MMTCO 2 e) cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

11 Study Emissions Target 86% reduction in energy-related CO2 below 1990 levels by 2050​ Applied to each Northwest state independently instead of regionally​ Consistent with economy-wide reduction of 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 Allows for reductions below 80 percent for non-energy CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions, where mitigation feasibility is less understood relative to energy cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

12 Northwest Deep Decarbonization Target 86% reduction in energy-related CO 2 emissions is required to achieve overall NW target. cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

13 Modeling Approach cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

14 Approach to Decarbonizing Energy Supply Least-cost, optimization framework Already applied in certain industries to plan for future energy needs​ Modeling determines optimal investment in resources Fuel and supply-side infrastructure decisions determined simultaneously while considering constraints, such as electricity system reliability and biomass availability cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

15 High-Level Description of Modeling Approach Model calculates the energy needed to power the Northwest economy, and the least-cost way to provide that energy under clean energy goals Constrained by clean energy goals Model of Supply energy Northwest Northwest reliably at least energy needs economy cost 1: Model 2: Model Generation Residential calculates calculates Electricity energy energy Transmission Commercial Liquid Fuels needs supply Storage Industrial Gaseous Fuels Fuel supply Transportation Carbon cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

16 Overview Explores multiple pathways for decarbonizing the NW energy system Addresses policy questions and potential implementation challenges in the context of economy-wide carbon limits ⁻ Central Case represents our core deep decarbonization pathway (DDP) ⁻ Additional DDP cases developed as sensitivities to the Central Case ⁻ Reference Case (BAU) developed to compare the DDP cases against​ Allows for a better understanding of across the energy system, assuming: ⁻ Alternative levels of electrification​ ⁻ Mandates (100% clean electricity) or prohibitions (no new gas plants) ⁻ Constraints on the use of biomass​ ⁻ Further electricity sector integration between the Northwest and California cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

17 Eight Pathway Scenarios Examined No New Gas Plants Business as for Electricity Usual Increased NW-CA Central Case Transmission 100% Clean Limited Biomass Electricity Grid for Liquid Fuels Limited Electrification Pipeline Gas for & Efficiency Freight Vehicles cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

18 Overview of Central Case cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

19 Five Decarbonization Strategies Deployed Energy Electricity Fuel Electrification Carbon Efficiency Decarbonization Decarbonization Doubles from Capture Per capita 96% Clean by 2050 23% to 55% 70% decrease 1/2 fuel; 1/2 energy sequestered decreases 50% cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

20 Business as Usual vs. Central Case In the Business as Usual Case emissions trajectory falls far short of the 2050 reduction goal, while the Central Case meets the mid-century energy CO 2 emission target of 86% below 1990 levels. cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

21 Final Energy Demand In the Central Case energy demand is down 34% and electricity consumption is up more than 50% in 2050. cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

22 Buildings: Energy Efficiency & Electrification Impacts Decline in building energy intensity for commercial and residential buildings from 2020 to 2050. cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

23 Carbon-Free Electricity Amount of electricity generation and the generation mix for electricity supply in the Central Case. cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

24 Transportation: Rate of Adoption and Fuel Mix The rate of vehicle adoption as a percentage of annual sales by fuel type from 2020 to 2050 in the Central Case. cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

25 Electricity: Emissions and Generation Electricity emissions decline: electricity generation increases. cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

26 Decarbonizing Diesel, Jet, and Pipeline Gas The composition of the liquid and gaseous fuel supply mix in the Central Case in five-year increments from 2020 to 2050. cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

27 Electricity Sector: New Generation Resource Build The Northwest region would build 95 gigawatts of new electric generation in the Central Case. cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

28 Insights from Alternative Pathways cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

29 100% Clean Electricity Generation Case In the 100% Clean Pipeline Gas, 2050 (TBtu) Electricity Grid Case, decarbonized pipeline gas Decarbonized can fully supply power ( Demand from 100% plants. clean electric grid) Share of gas-fired generation decreases from Fossil 3.7% to 1.7% due to incremental renewables and energy storage deployment​ cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

30 Limited Demand-Side Transformation Case Limited Demand-Side Sector Subsector Central Case Transformation Case 90% battery electric 45% battery electric Light-duty vehicles 10% plug-in hybrid 5% plug-in hybrid electric electric Medium-duty trucks 60% battery electric 30% battery electric Transportation Heavy-duty trucks 50% battery electric 20% battery electric Primarily air source One-half of the Central Space Conditioning heat pump Case Primarily heat pump One-half of the Central Water Heating Buildings water heater Case Electrification adoption One-half of the Central Various similar to NREL EFS Case ‘High scenario' Industry cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

31 Limited Efficiency & Electrification Energy demand declines by 21% in the Limited Electrification and Efficiency Achieved Case vs. 34% in the Central Case. Less energy demand reduction means greater investment in fuels, some of which need to be decarbonized with expensive biofuels and synthetic fuels cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

32 If No New Gas Plants Case Change in Installed Capacity Relative to Central Case, 2050 (MV) cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition

33 Increased NW-California Transmission 4,500 MW new capacity 7,000 GWH increased exports $11.1B NPV savings Changing supply mix​ cleanenergytransition.org @CETransition