Ci Patxot (Universitat de Barcelona) Elisenda Rentera (Universitat - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

Dec 23, 2022 236 likes •460 views

Ci Patxot (Universitat de Barcelona) Elisenda Rentera (Universitat de Barcelona) Guadalupe Souto (Universitat Autnoma de Barcelona) Questions Deep economic crisis Spain is facing has raised questions about our economic situation and our

SLIDE 1

Ció Patxot (Universitat de Barcelona) Elisenda Rentería (Universitat de Barcelona) Guadalupe Souto (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

SLIDE 2

Deep economic crisis Spain is facing has raised questions about our economic situation and our perspectives for the future:

 Have Spaniards were living beyond our means?  Can we keep our pre-crisis living standards or

do we need to change our way of life to make it economically sustainable?

Questions

SLIDE 3

 GDP decreased 1,3% in 2012  Unemployment above 25%  High public deficits since 2008, and public debt

increasing sharply

Macroeconomic outlook

SLIDE 4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Corporate Households Public

Total debt in 1995: 140%, and 270% in 2010. Private debt in 2010 is three times the 1995 level !!!!!!!!!!

SLIDE 5

 NTA converts the whole set of a given year NA in

age specific flows, giving a cross-sectional picture

f intergenerational transfers occurring in an

economy in a given year.

 NTA give us very rich information about the

consumption and production patterns in society. As these patterns are obtained by age, country demographic characteristics, not only economic

nes, can be taken into account.

SLIDE 6

LCD = ABR + TG + TF Income sources = Income uses

YL + YA + TG+ + TF+ = C + S + TG- + TF- C -YL = (YA – S) + (TG+ - TG-) + (TF+ + TF-)

SLIDE 7

 Previous equations hold both for the whole economy

and for any age group in particular.

 LCD can be positive or negative for each age group in

particular. When negative, it needs to be financed

through ABR, TG and TF.

ABR: mainly intertemporal redistribution
TG and TF: mainly intergenerational distribution

 Living standards of the whole society depend critically

n the success of working-age population to generate

enough resources to meet their own needs and non- working ages’ LCD (through TG and TF)

SLIDE 8

15000
10000
5000

5000 10000 15000 20000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 € (2000)

2000 2008

SLIDE 9

0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% of GDP

SLIDE 10

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% of GDP C LY LCD

SLIDE 11

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1908 1920 1932 1944 1956 1968 1980 1992 2004 2016 2028 2040 2052 2064 2076 2088 2100 2112 2124 2136 2148 Total DR Old DR Young DR

SLIDE 12

 Total LCD has grown between 2000-2008

despite the very favourable population age estructure

 From 2013 we will have no chances to control

LCD with demographic factors. In fact, demographic transition will represent a hard cost that only can be compensated adjusting per capita profiles

SLIDE 13

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

2000 €per capita

Consumption Labour income

SLIDE 14

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Labour Income Consumption

SLIDE 15

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95100+

€(2000)

Private Consumption Public Consumption Public Health Public Education

SLIDE 16

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95100+ public Educ private Educ public Health private Health

SLIDE 17

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

€ (current) housing M housing F food and clothes M food and clothes F leisure M leisure F transport M transport F

ther M
ther F

SLIDE 18

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Food Male Food Female Hotel and foodservice Male Hotel and foodservice Female

SLIDE 19

90,2% 69,6%

37,8%

8,6% 47,6% 21,9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%

MEN (65+) WOMEN (65+)

ABR TF TG

SLIDE 20

 Aggregated LCD in Spain has grown during the period 2000-

2008 despite the very favourable age population structure (the most favourable in two centuries)

 Looking at per capita profiles, from 2000 to 2008 an increase

in the LCD of the children and the elderly is observed, not compensated by a bigger surplus of active ages

 Private consumption profile tends to decrease with age; but

public consumption profile is clearly higher for older people (mainly because of health care profile).

SLIDE 21

 If per capita profile of LCD observed in

2008 keeps constant, the deep aging process in the next decades will lead to an unsustainable situation: working ages will not be able to generate enough resources to keep our way of life