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China s magnesite industry: s magnesite industry: China - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

China s magnesite industry: s magnesite industry: China resources, supply, resources, supply, & global influence & global influence Mike O Driscoll, Driscoll, Mike O Editor, Industrial Minerals Editor, Industrial


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China China’ ’s magnesite industry: s magnesite industry: resources, supply, resources, supply, & global influence & global influence

Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, Driscoll, Editor, Industrial Minerals Editor, Industrial Minerals

Impact of China on industrial minerals Impact of China on industrial minerals SME 2009 Annual Meeting & Exhibit SME 2009 Annual Meeting & Exhibit 22 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

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SLIDE 2

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

Industrial Minerals Industrial Minerals

Metal Bulletin Ltd, UK Metal Bulletin Ltd, UK

Since 1967, delivering premium Since 1967, delivering premium information on news and trends in information on news and trends in global supply and demand of global supply and demand of industrial minerals industrial minerals From mine to market: From mine to market: global non global non-

  • metallic minerals

metallic minerals intelligence intelligence

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SLIDE 3

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

Industrial Minerals Industrial Minerals

From mine to market: global non From mine to market: global non-

  • metallic minerals intelligence

metallic minerals intelligence

  • magazines

magazines

  • on
  • n-
  • line

line www.indmin.com www.indmin.com

  • events

events

  • directories

directories

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SLIDE 4

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

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SLIDE 5

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

IM ONLINE LAUNCH MARCH 2009 IM ONLINE LAUNCH MARCH 2009

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content searchable & news alerts customised by market sector market sector

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SLIDE 6

UPCOMING EVENTS 2009 UPCOMING EVENTS 2009

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

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SLIDE 7

Outline Outline

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 1. The Big Picture
  • 1. The Big Picture
  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

  • 3. Situation in China
  • 3. Situation in China
  • 4. Influence on world market
  • 4. Influence on world market
  • 5. Market outlook
  • 5. Market outlook
  • 6. Summary & conclusions
  • 6. Summary & conclusions
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SLIDE 8

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 1. The Big Picture
  • 1. The Big Picture

“ “I feel that I feel that once the Chinese government is

  • nce the Chinese government is

introducing a new tax to curb the export of introducing a new tax to curb the export of minerals, obviously they do not worry about minerals, obviously they do not worry about the competitiveness of Chinese minerals in the the competitiveness of Chinese minerals in the international market any more. international market any more.” ”

Early 2006: a leading trader commented: Early 2006: a leading trader commented:

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SLIDE 9

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 1. The Big Picture
  • 1. The Big Picture

Early 2006: a leading trader commented: Early 2006: a leading trader commented:

“ “The overseas buyer will either be The overseas buyer will either be forced to pay a significantly higher forced to pay a significantly higher price for Chinese minerals price for Chinese minerals or buy

  • r buy

from an alternative source. from an alternative source.” ”

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SLIDE 10

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 1. The Big Picture
  • 1. The Big Picture

August 2008: a western producer & consumer stated: August 2008: a western producer & consumer stated:

“ “At the end of 2009 we should be independent At the end of 2009 we should be independent regarding supply of [Chinese] DBM and FM. regarding supply of [Chinese] DBM and FM.” ” “ “A similar strategy should be the base for any A similar strategy should be the base for any serious producer of magnesia based refractory serious producer of magnesia based refractory products. products.” ”

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SLIDE 11

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 1. The Big Picture
  • 1. The Big Picture

January 2009: leading Western traders: January 2009: leading Western traders:

“ “Everything has stalled! Everything has stalled!” ” “ “Demand will be the key, as first quarter Demand will be the key, as first quarter purchase quantities are expected to be well below purchase quantities are expected to be well below normal historic levels. normal historic levels.” ” “ “Lower pricing is anticipated in 2009 Lower pricing is anticipated in 2009” ”

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SLIDE 12

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Resources Resources – – 3,319m. tonnes 3,319m. tonnes

Source: Ian Wilson (2008) Source: Ian Wilson (2008)

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SLIDE 13

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Magnesite mined Magnesite mined – – 8.36m. tonnes 8.36m. tonnes

Source: Ian Wilson (2008) Source: Ian Wilson (2008)

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SLIDE 14

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Magnesia produced Magnesia produced – – 4.1m. tonnes 4.1m. tonnes

Source: Ian Wilson (2008) Source: Ian Wilson (2008)

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SLIDE 15

Shandong magnesite Tibet magnesite Liaoning magnesite Bayuquan port

Resource & production location Resource & production location

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SLIDE 16

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Source: Ian Wilson (2008) Source: Ian Wilson (2008)

Haicheng Dashiqiao Belt Haicheng Dashiqiao Belt

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SLIDE 17

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Haicheng Dashiqiao Belt Haicheng Dashiqiao Belt

Source: Ian Wilson (2008) Source: Ian Wilson (2008)

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SLIDE 18

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Huaziyui mine, Liaoning

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SLIDE 19

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Pailou Mine, Liaoning

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SLIDE 20

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Pailou Mine, Liaoning

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SLIDE 21

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Pailou Mine, Liaoning

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SLIDE 22

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Pailou Mine, Liaoning

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SLIDE 23

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Trucking ore from Pailou Mine, Liaoning

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SLIDE 24

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

CCM Shaft kilns, Pailou, Liaoning

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SLIDE 25

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

CCM shaft kilns, Liaoning

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SLIDE 26

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

“Valley of the Kilns”, Haicheng, Liaoning

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SLIDE 27

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

DBM shaft kiln, Dashiqiao

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SLIDE 28

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Fusing CCM, Dashiqiao, Liaoning

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SLIDE 29

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Fused magnesia ingots, Dashiqiao, Liaoning

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SLIDE 30

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Breaking up FM ingots, Dashiqiao, Liaoning

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SLIDE 31

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Bagged powdered DBM, Haicheng-Dashiqiao, Liaoning

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SLIDE 32

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Loading DBM, Bayuquan, Liaoning

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SLIDE 33

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 2. China
  • 2. China’

’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry

Tunnel kiln & DBM refractory bricks, Dashiqiao, Liaoning

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SLIDE 34

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 3. Situation in China
  • 3. Situation in China
  • Depletion of quality resources

Depletion of quality resources

  • Poor mine planning/extraction

Poor mine planning/extraction

  • Fuel/power costs & availability

Fuel/power costs & availability

  • Olympic Games ban impact

Olympic Games ban impact

  • Export smuggling curtailed

Export smuggling curtailed

  • Streamlining supply base

Streamlining supply base

  • Domestic demand priority

Domestic demand priority

  • Resource & capacity investment

Resource & capacity investment

  • Export quota reduced by 45,000t

Export quota reduced by 45,000t

  • Export tax, VAT, licence fee

Export tax, VAT, licence fee

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SLIDE 35

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 4. Influence on world market
  • 4. Influence on world market
  • Shortage of supply

Shortage of supply

  • Capacity expansions in West

Capacity expansions in West

  • Grade diversification, restart

Grade diversification, restart

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SLIDE 36

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 4. Influence on world market
  • 4. Influence on world market

Capacity expansions in West Capacity expansions in West

Baymag CCM,DBM,FM Mag de Rubian CCM Magnezit CCM,DBM,FM Bommag DBM,FM Kumas DBM,FM Magnesita DBM RHI-Jinding DBM Tata Ref. DBM Qmag CCM, DBM,FM DSP CCM MMMS CCM Premier CCM Penoles CCM,FM

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SLIDE 37

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 4. Influence on world market
  • 4. Influence on world market

Capacity expansions in West Capacity expansions in West Bringing on stream by 2010 Bringing on stream by 2010 1.2m. DBM 1.2m. DBM 120,750 FM 120,750 FM 384,000 CCM 384,000 CCM

MMMS, Manistee, USA

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SLIDE 38

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 4. Influence on world market
  • 4. Influence on world market
  • Shortage of supply

Shortage of supply

  • Capacity expansions in West

Capacity expansions in West

  • Grade diversification, restart

Grade diversification, restart

  • M&A activity, PE interest

M&A activity, PE interest

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SLIDE 39

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 4. Influence on world market
  • 4. Influence on world market

M&A activity, PE interest M&A activity, PE interest

  • M&A

M&A

  • UCM,

UCM, Imerys Imerys

  • Minco,

Minco, Penoles Penoles

  • Morton Salt,

Morton Salt, MMMS MMMS

  • Calmag,

Calmag, Bomex Bomex

  • Slovmag,

Slovmag, Magnezit Magnezit

  • Dalmia/Eswar

Dalmia/Eswar

  • LWB,

LWB, Magnesita Magnesita

  • Magnohrom,

Magnohrom, XXX? XXX?

  • SMZ,

SMZ, XXX? XXX?

SMZ, Jelsava, Slovakia

  • Private equity interest

Private equity interest -

  • Magnesita,

Magnesita, GPI/Gavea GPI/Gavea

  • Qmag,

Qmag, RCF RCF

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SLIDE 40

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 4. Influence on world market
  • 4. Influence on world market
  • Shortage of supply

Shortage of supply

  • Capacity expansions in West

Capacity expansions in West

  • Grade diversification, restart

Grade diversification, restart

  • M&A activity, PE interest

M&A activity, PE interest

  • Legal challenge to China policy

Legal challenge to China policy

  • Investment in China

Investment in China

  • Alternative source emergence

Alternative source emergence

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SLIDE 41

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 4. Influence on world market
  • 4. Influence on world market

China investment, emerging alternative sources China investment, emerging alternative sources

  • Overseas investment in China

Overseas investment in China

  • RHI

RHI-

  • Jinding

Jinding

  • Tata Refractories

Tata Refractories

  • Emerging alternatives

Emerging alternatives

  • Magnezit, Russia

Magnezit, Russia

  • Quintermina, North Korea

Quintermina, North Korea

  • Elsewhere?

Elsewhere?… …Jordan, Saudi Arabia Jordan, Saudi Arabia

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SLIDE 42

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 5. Market outlook
  • 5. Market outlook

Early 2008: outlook positive for refractories Early 2008: outlook positive for refractories – – DBM, FM DBM, FM

  • 7

7-

  • 8% pa growth to

8% pa growth to 2012 2012

  • Steel, cement

Steel, cement

  • RHI:

RHI: “ “The steel The steel sector can look to sector can look to the future with the future with confidence. confidence.” ”

  • BRIC regions

BRIC regions

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SLIDE 43

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 5. Market outlook
  • 5. Market outlook
  • Late 2008: financial crisis

Late 2008: financial crisis – – economic recession economic recession

  • Market slowdown in 2009

Market slowdown in 2009 Construction Construction Automobiles Automobiles Steel Steel Glass Glass Cement Cement Refractory Refractory demand demand DBM DBM demand demand

  • Magnesia prices falling

Magnesia prices falling

  • Capacity expansion projects concern

Capacity expansion projects concern

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SLIDE 44

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 5. Market outlook
  • 5. Market outlook

Global steel output decline in 2008 Global steel output decline in 2008

2009 Steel industry expected to contract 7-8%

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SLIDE 45

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 5. Market outlook
  • 5. Market outlook

DBM price rise and fall 2002 DBM price rise and fall 2002-

  • 09

09

DBM94/95 Q1 09 price expected to drop to $450-480/t DBM90 Q1 09 price expected to drop to <$400/t

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SLIDE 46

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 5. Market outlook
  • 5. Market outlook
  • Steel bright spots: China, India, South Korea

Steel bright spots: China, India, South Korea

  • Non

Non-

  • refractory market opportunities

refractory market opportunities Environmental Environmental CCM/Mg(OH)2 CCM/Mg(OH)2 Specialities Specialities CCM/Mg(OH)2 CCM/Mg(OH)2 Hydrometallurgy Hydrometallurgy Ni laterite Ni laterite processing processing CCM Agrimarkets Agrimarkets CCM CCM CCM

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SLIDE 47

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver

  • 6. Summary & conclusions
  • 6. Summary & conclusions
  • During 1980

During 1980-

  • 90s China dominated magnesia exports

90s China dominated magnesia exports

  • Western producers diversified from DBM or exited

Western producers diversified from DBM or exited

  • 2000s saw China govt. policy of export reduction, and

2000s saw China govt. policy of export reduction, and focus on domestic markets, conserve raw materials, focus on domestic markets, conserve raw materials, export finished products, eg. refractories export finished products, eg. refractories

  • Resulting in magnesia supply shortages, rising

Resulting in magnesia supply shortages, rising prices, consumers scrabbling to secure future supply prices, consumers scrabbling to secure future supply

  • Encouraged producers outside China to expand/emerge

Encouraged producers outside China to expand/emerge

  • 2009: markets impacted by economic recession

2009: markets impacted by economic recession

  • Prices will drop, project caution, market demand

Prices will drop, project caution, market demand “ “on

  • n

hold hold” ” – – China unchanged China unchanged – – West still demands magnesia West still demands magnesia

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SLIDE 48

Thank you for your kind attention Thank you for your kind attention

China China’ ’s magnesite industry s magnesite industry Mike O Mike O’ ’Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22 Driscoll, IM, SME 2009, 22-

  • 25 February 2009, Denver

25 February 2009, Denver