Chinas Long March towards Sustainable Growth? Ari Van Assche - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Chinas Long March towards Sustainable Growth? Ari Van Assche - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 08, 2023 437 likes •557 views

Chinas Long March towards Sustainable Growth? Ari Van Assche Department of International Business 1 China: Engine of the World Economy Contribution to global GDP growth, 2007-2016, selected countries, % 50 40 30 20 10 0 China

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China’s Long March towards Sustainable Growth?

Ari Van Assche Department of International Business

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China: Engine of the World Economy

10 20 30 40 50 China United States India Indonesia Japan Brazil

Contribution to global GDP growth, 2007-2016, selected countries, %

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Data Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

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Perspiration Inspiration

Two Types of Growth

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50 55 60 65 70 75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Population share of working age (15-64), %

China Canada

Favorable Demographics…

Data Source: United Nations Population Division

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High Savings Rate…

10 20 30 40 50 60 China Japan France Canada United States Italy United Kingdom

Gross Savings as % of GDP, G7 countries, 2015

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Data Source: World Bank

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FDI attractor…

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20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

China's foreign direct investment inflows and outflows, 1980-2015, $million

Inward Outward

Data Source: UNCTAD

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Favorable Demographics Reversed

50 55 60 65 70 75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Population share of working age (15-64), %

China Canada

Data Source: United Nations Population Division

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Favorable Demographics Reversed

50 55 60 65 70 75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Population share of working age (15-64), %

China Canada

Data Source: United Nations Population Division

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China’s Not so Cheap Workers

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Avoiding the Middle Income Trap?

  • PIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain
  • OTHER: Mauritius, Equitorial Guinea,

Israel, Puerto Rico

  • ASIAN TIGERS: Hong Kong,

Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan Source: World Bank (2012)

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WHY CHINA CAN’T INNOVATE (HBR, 2014) “The problem is not the innovative or intellectual capacity of the Chinese people, which is boundless, but the political world in which their schools, universities, and businesses need to operate, which is very much bounded.”