Changes in precipitation dynamics, flows, livelihoods and adaptive - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change in Nepal: Changes in precipitation dynamics, flows, livelihoods and adaptive actions

Ajaya Dixit ISET-Nepal XIV IWRA World Water Congress Enotel Resort Porto de Galinhas Brazil 26-28 September 2011

Nepal in Himalaya Mountain System (HAM) Region of highland lowland complexity landscape climate interaction is complex Dramatic elevation changes

Highly interlaced and interdependent social systems undergoing rapid changes

High mountains Middle hills Tarai

Rainfall variations at three scales

River Types Name Basin area km2 Flow in billion m3 % population Annual Wet season (J-J-A-S) Dry Season Total Snow Interflow, groundwater Snow fed* Kosi 27,863 45 36** 9 ? ? 15 Gandaki 29,626 50 40 10 ? ? 21 Karnali 41,058 44 35 9 ? ? 10 Mahakali 5,317 6.21 5 1.1 ? ? 2 Non snow fed seasonal (has flashy trbutaries) Kankai, Kamala, Bagmati, Rapti, Babai 17,000 14.5 12*** 2,0 None Groundwater in pockets 23 Non snow fed (flashy) Bering, Trijuga, Ratu, Lal Bakaiya, Rohini, Banagang, Mohana etc. 23,150 53 48**** 5 None Tarai has groundwater 30 * Non-snow fed tributaries, ** 80 % monsoon flow , *** 85 % monsoon flow, **** 90 % monsoon flow

Water Resources: Spatial, temporal and social matrix

Karnali at Chisapani 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Jan. Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Monthly mean Tinau at Dobhan 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan. Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Monthly mean

West Rapti at Jalkundi 100 200 300 400 Jan. Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Monthly mean

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 27 28 29 30

• 0.03
• 0.02
• 0.01

0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07

Annual Mean Temperature Trend (°C/year)

What are the vulnerabilities ?

Source NCVST, 2009

Climate change Temperature trend

Scenario study suggests temperature rise and precipitation uncertainty

Shrestha M. (2008)

LRMP (1984)

Lower snow fall and changes in melt rates Impacts on livelihoods Very preliminary estimate puts about 35 % of Nepal’s population (more rigorous method needed) directly dependent on snow flow.

Will affect drinking water Will affect, high-land agriculture Will affect tourism

2011 GLOF In Humla Source: ASTRID HOVDEN PhD fellow University of Oslo.

Localised loses of lives, assets, increased regional sedimentation (pulses) Lowered economic life of reservoirs Altered river behavior, lower performance of built system

WECS, 1987

Changes in regional hydrology

Observed shifting of hydrograph of Kali Gandaki

Shrestha, et al 2003

Will affect hydropower, irrigation, drinking water, groundwater systems and

• wetlands. Impact will ripple through systems

Estimates of glacial melt to overall river flow varies from 2 to 20 percent

Challenges of middle hills and Tarai More drying (Forest Fire)

Subsistence farming Losses due to drought can be



50% of winter crop in some hill districts



Already food deficit Migration is adaptation strategy, but global economy limiting factor April 24, 2009 NASA

(WECS, 1987 )

Extreme rainfall in hills

Dixit 2003

Loss of lives, assets, livelihood and increased sedimentation, systemic effects

Floods in the Tarai

To sumamrise Snow and glaciers in the larger context A Local drinking water, irrigation etc Tourism Affects local livelihood B High GLOF potential Localises loses, increased regional sedimentation C Changes in regional hydrology due to changes in snow and glacier processes D Mid hills and Tarai challenges serious and equally important

Loss of lives, assets, livelihoods and opportunities. Increased vulnerabilities Means focus on adaptation will be key

To the conceptual

• If we define adaptation as planned responses

to specific projected impacts, then specific climate-targeted responses are required.

• If we define adaptation as an ongoing,

evolutionary process within complex evolving systems, then approaches that address points

• f vulnerability within systems are important

Why ?

• High levels of uncertainty in both local and regional climate

changes, complex and poorly understood (IPCC “white” spot)

• Limited data stations (placement, lack of resources: finances

and human)

• Adaptation to climate change embedded in dynamic socio-

economic contexts with multiple change drivers -- much adaptation will be at autonomous level

• Political incentives and governance mechanism

vary greatly, and with them the ability to develop and implement “adaptive” strategies

Conclusions

• Challenges of impacts of climate change on snow and glaciers

needs to be viewed in the systemic context.

• Enabling adaptation isn’t only about improving specific

projections or planning specific strategies for responding to

• them. It is also about

– understanding the levels of certainty in climate trends, tipping points and stress indicators – communicating uncertainty as well as certainty – building resilient systems (as gateways) that enable society to shift strategies and respond flexibly as conditions change -- linked with development – piloting and testing the systemic interventions that help planned and autonomous adaptation.

Thank you and jai hos (May you all be well)