Change in South Asia: A case study of the Indus and Ganges deltas - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Socio-economic Vulnerability of the Mangroves Ecosystem to Climate Change in South Asia: A case study of the Indus and Ganges deltas

Kashif Majeed Salik SDPI's Seventeenth Sustainable Development Conference 09-11 December 2014, Islamabad

Outline

 Purpose of the study  Background  Climate change science and community perceptions  Methodology  Results and Adaptation options

Purpose of the study

We try understand socio-economic vulnerability to climate change via:

“relating community’s perceptions with observed and projected climate change scenarios”

• 1. What are the likely drivers of community’s sensitivity to

climate change?

• 2. What are their impacts on community’s wellbeing?
• 3. How much is the coping potential?
• 4. What should be the key adaptation options for

increasing community’s resilience?

Background

• Mangrove forests are unique

and highly productive ecosystems

• Provide multitude of

environmental services and economic benefits

• Becoming increasingly

important in disaster risk reduction

 One hectare of a well-protected

and healthy mangrove ecosystem can produce from 15 kg of crabs to 400 kg of fish, mollusks, and shrimp that mature in off-shore areas (Khan, 2011).

 Export of about 85,000 metric

tones of fish (Rs7.9 billion- more then 1percent of GDP)

Climate change science & community perceptions

Air Temperature

 The observed temperature

suggests a consistent increase of mean annual air temperature by 1.47oC from 1951 to 2010

 Annual temperature will rise

to 1.15, 2.4 and 4.19 °C by F1 (2010-39), F2 (2040- 2069) and F3 (2070-2099)



Mangrove forests are dependent on

• ptimal temperatures- impact their

biophysical processes such as photosynthesis, leaf formation, root development, flowering and fruiting etc. (Nicholls et al., 2008; Belkin, 2009; Bardach, 1989) as well as increase salinity levels; decreased agriculture production

Perception of changes in past 30 years?

 51% says temperatures are increasing  70% says reduction in Mangrove

forest is due to sea intrusion & salinity

 57% says agriculture yields are

decreasing due to salinity

Precipitation

 Annual total precipitation

trend change has been estimated as -78.4 mm over the period 1951-2010

 Mean projected to increase

twice the times of the base in F1(2010-39), 1.5 times of the base in F2(2040-2069) and 1.8 F3 (2070-2099)



The erratic patterns of rain and flooding are likely to reduce ecosystem productivity due to soil erosion, phytoplankton displacement, less sedimentation deposit, soil salinity and reduction in agricultural yields (Keller et

• al. 2009)

Perception of changes in past 30 years?

 Rainfall: 86.7 % says „changed

and increased‟; 54% increase in erratic RF

 81% says Soil Fertility dec.  65 %says Soil erosion Incr.

Sea Surface Temperature

 An average warming of

0.3±0.10C per decade was

• bserved in the coastal areas of

Pakistan

 While projected increase in the

global mean SST under IPCC SERS A2 scenario is around 2.6oC by the end of 21st century (Singh and Sarker, 2002; Khanet al., 2004, 2008; Belkin, 2009; IPCC, 2007).

 Fish diversity, distribution,

abundance, phenology and its spawning season all are closely related to SST variability (William et al., 2013)

 Perception of changes in past

30 years?

 75-85 % says decreasing trend in

fish catch of all type

 73 % says fish catch sites are

changing and dispersed

Indus Delta-Keti Bundar Pakistan Ganges Delta-Dacope/Khulna Bangladesh

Vulnerability Assessment

Exposure Sensitivity Potential impacts Adaptive capacity Vulnerability

Vulnerability is defined on the basis of a system’s exposure and sensitivity to climate change, moderated by its adaptive capacity

Composite vulnerability Analysis Exposure Adaptive capacity Sensitivity

• Air temperature
• Precipitation
• Sea Surface Temperature
• Mangrove Forests
• Water and sanitation
• Fresh Water Flows
• Cost of Climatic Disasters
• Consumption Patterns
• Income Diversification
• Dependency Ratio
• Schooling or Education Level
• Infrastructure
• Assets
• Family Networks
• Migrations

CVI Sub- Indices Indicators

Exposure Variables

Temperature

 sdt- Standard Deviation of Monthly Temperatures between 1951-2010  rT1- The range between max. & mini av. monthly temperatures  Nhot- The frequency of extreme hot months (above 30oC)  Ncold- The frequency of extreme cold (below -10oC) months

Precipitation

 Ndry- The frequency of extreme dry month in spring(less than 5 ml total

precipitation/month) and summer (0 ml total precipitation/month

 sdP- Standard Deviation of monthly total precipitation

Sea Surface Temperature

 sdT- Standard Deviation of Yearly sea surface temperatures

Sensitivity Variables

Mangrove Forests



Degradation of mangroves in Keti Bandar



Accessibility to Mangroves



Mangroves used per month as fuel Health



Share of households relying on unprotected water sources



Population deprived of sanitation facility Fresh Water Flows



Change in Fresh Water flows



Effect of unavailability of Fresh water on Agriculture



Effect of unavailability of Fresh Water on Fish



Frequency of sea intrusion or inundation



Frequency of Natural Climatic Disasters Cost of Climatic Disasters



Intensity of Natural Climatic Disasters



Estimated per capita economic costs of these disasters



Percentage of population financially aided by different agencies

Adaptive capacity variables

Consumption Patterns



Household Consumption per Capita Income Diversification



Herfindahl index of income diversification (higher value, more diversification) Dependency Ratio



Ratio of total number of people and number of people earning in a family Schooling or Education Level



People educated above secondary level



Percentage Share of Literate People Infrastructure



Access to Basic Services



Nature of Dwellings Assets



Number of the Assets owned by the community members Family Networks



Level of cooperation within the family network within the village



Level of cooperation within the family network outside the village Migrations



Extent of Migration due to natural Disasters



Extent of Migration because of economic reasons

CVI Calculation



Categorization of vulnerability Levels

(Adopted and transformed from Comer et al. 2012 and Hammill et al. 2013)

Index value Scale Exposure/ Vulnerability Sensitivity/ Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity/ Vulnerability CVI

0.0≤ CVI ≤0.3 Low/ Low Low/Low Low/ Very high Low 0.31≤ CVI ≤0.5 Medium/ Medium Medium/ Medium Medium/ High Medium 0.51≤ CVI ≤0.7 High/ High High/ High High/ Medium High 0.71≤ CVI ≤1.0 Very High/ Very High Very High/ Very High Very High/ Low Very High

Results & Adaptation options

Exposure Indicators

Vulnerability Indus Ganges Low 0.0≤ CVI ≤0.3 1) Index representing exposure of drought Medium 0.31≤ CVI ≤0.5 1)Frequency of extreme hot and cold months; 2)Variability

• f total precipitation

1)Average precipitation; 2)Range between maximum and minimum temperature; 3) Index representing frequency of cyclone; 4)Frequency salinity beyond which drinking water is not potable High 0.51≤ CVI ≤0.7 1)Variability of Temperatures; 2) Average Diurnal Temperature Range; 3) No of extreme dry days; 4) Variability

• f Sea Surface Temp

Very High 0.71≤ CVI ≤1.0 1) Average temperature;

Sensitivity variables

Vulnerability Indus Ganges Low 0.0≤ CVI ≤0.3 1)Estimated per capita economic costs of these disasters; 2)Mangroves used per month as fuel; 1)Share of population below 5 year of age; 2)Share of population above 65 years of age; 3)Estimated per capita economic cost of these disasters: Medium 0.31≤ CVI ≤0.5 1)Accessibility to Mangroves 1)Percentage of population without access to improved toilet facility; High 0.51≤ CVI ≤0.7 1)Frequency of sea intrusion or inundation; 1)Frequency of natural climate disasters; 2)Share of population relying on unprotected water sources Very High 0.71≤ CVI ≤1.0 1)Degradation of mangroves; 2)Unprotected water sources; 3)Population deprived of sanitation Facility: 4)Effect of Fresh Water flow

• Agri. & Fish; 5)Frequency of Natural

Climatic Disasters; 6)Percentage of population financially aided by different agencies 1)Percentage of population without access to improved water source; 2)Percentage of population victims of salinity intrusion; 3)Intensity of natural disasters;4) Percentage of population financially aided by different agencies

Adaptive capacity variables

Vulnerability Indus Ganges Low 0.0≤ CVI ≤0.3 1)Household Consumption per Capita; 2)Income diversification; 3)Dependency ratio; 4)Education above secondary; 5)% of Literate people; 6)Access to basic services; 1)Percentage of population with access to electricity; 2) Dependency ratio; 3)Nature

• f dwellings

Medium 0.31≤ CVI ≤0.5 1) Assets ownership; 1)Employment rate; 2)Percentage of births attended by skilled birth attendants; High 0.51≤ CVI ≤0.7 1)Literacy rate; 2)Household consumption Very High 0.71≤ CVI ≤1.0 1)Nature of dwellings; 2)cooperation within family within and outside village; 3)Migration 1)Percentage of children aged 2-23 months immunised against major disease; 2)Level of cooperation within locality

CVI in Indus and Ganges Delta

CVI Indus Ganges Exposure 0.521 0.437 Sensitivity 0.652 0.437 Adaptive capacity 0.564 0.484 Overall CVI 0.580 (High) 0.441 (Medium)

Adaptation options

1) Provision of safe drinking water and sanitation facilities

 Major cause of poor

health status among the Deltaic communities

 Untreated water from

canals are contaminated with industrial and agricultural effluents

Adaptation options

2) Ensuring environmental flows

 Decreased fresh water

flows greatly contributed in the degradation of the Indus delta ecology

 Ecosystem services has

shrunk causing widespread poverty & migration in deltaic areas

Adaptation options

3) Safeguard from the climatic disasters and settlements out of the risky areas

 Integrate scientific

information into planning for DRR and improve Institutional capacity

 Develop proper and safe

settlements to protect life and property as well as provision of civic facilities

Adaptation options

4) Improving education access

 Education is a key to

enhance the resilience of communities both in pre & post-disaster situations

 improving literacy rate in

the coastal areas can greatly improve the livelihood options

Adaptation options

5) Capacity development for climate preparedness and innovations

 Incapacities of

institutions have led to poor management of coastal resources

 new building and

settlement codes, insurance coverage & hazard preparedness

Thank you for the attention

Sub-Indices and their Indicators Variable Variable Description Index

• verall

Index for Agricultur e Index for Fisheries Exposure (E) 0.521 0.521 0.521 Air Temperature E1 Monthly Variability of Temperatures during 1951-2010 0.677 0.677 0.677 E2 Monthly Average Diurnal Temperature Range 0.549 0.549 0.549 E5 Frequency of extreme hot months (above 30oC) 0.41 0.41 0.41 E6 Frequency of extreme cold months (below -10oC) months Precipitation (P) E7 No of extreme dry days: Spring (P<5mm) Summer (P = 0mm) 0.555 0.555 0.555 E3 Monthly Variability of total precipitation 0.394 0.394 0.394 Sea Surface Temp. E4 Monthly variability of Sea Surface Temp. during (1951-2010) 0.542 0.542 0.542

Sub-Indices and their Indicators Variable Variable Description Index

• verall

Index for Agricultur e Index for Fisheries Sensitivity (S) 0.652 0.638 0.669 Mangrove Forests S1 Sensitivity of mangroves in Keti Bandar 0.808 0.845 0.769 S2 Accessibility to Mangroves 0.371 0.269 0.444 S3 Mangroves used per month as fuel 0.024 0.001 0.050 Water and sanitation S4 Share of households relying on unprotected water sources 0.908 0.787 0.758 S5 Population deprived of sanitation Facility 0.967 0.938 1 Fresh Water Flows S6 Change in Fresh Water flows 0.815 0.742 0.913 S7 Effect of unavailability of Fresh water on Agriculture 0.804 0.935

• S8

Effect of unavailability of Fresh Water on Fish 0.848

• 1

S9 Frequency of sea intrusion or inundation 0.649 0.610 0.692 Climatic Disasters S10 Frequency of Natural Climatic Disasters 0.959 0.924 1 S11 Intensity of Natural Climatic Disasters 0.881 0.903 0.857 S12 Estimated per capita economic costs of these disasters 0.062 0.066 0.058 S13 Percentage of population financially aided by different agencies 0.817 0.781 0.857

Sub-Indices and their Indicators Variable Variable Description Index

• verall

Index for Agricultu re Index for Fisherie s Lack of Adaptive Capacity (1-A) 0.564 0.581 0.546 Consumption Patterns A1 Household Consumption per Capita 0.081 0.057 0.105 Income Diversification A2 Herfindahl index of income diversification (higher value, more diversification) 0.141 0.161 0.122 Dependency Ratio A3 Ratio of total number of people and number of people earning in a family 0.214 0.236 0.189 Education Level A4 People educated above secondary level 0.017 0.031 A5 Percentage Share of Literate People 0.195 0.307 0.067 Infrastructure A6 Access to Basic Services 0.196 0.234 0.152 Assets A7 Nature of Dwellings 0.85 0.875 0.821 A8 Number of the Assets owned by the community members 0.65 0.453 0.875 Family Networks A9 Level of cooperation within the family network within the village 0.983 0.969 1 A10 Level of cooperation within the family network outside the village 0.883 0.844 0.929 Migrations A11 Extent of Migration due to natural Disasters 0.8 0.844 0.75 A12 Extent of Migration because of material reasons 0.783 0.719 0.857