SLIDE 1
- 8
- 6
- 4
- 2
2 4 6 8 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 2015 Difference from 20th Century Average (°F)
- Upper
Coast Seasonal Temperature Anomalies
- Tmax
+ & solid, Tmin
- &
do ed
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
Change, and Harvey John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Change, and Harvey John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Extreme Weather, Climate Change, and Harvey John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University Texas State Climatologist Upper Coast Seasonal Temperature Anomalies Tmax + & solid, Tmin -
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Basis of Climate Prediction
- Past observed changes
- Climate model projections
- Basic physical understanding of climate
system
SLIDE 4
Three out of three
- Higher temperatures
– More extreme highs – Fewer extreme lows
- Extreme rainfall
– More extreme rain – More dry days, droughts
- Sea level rise
SLIDE 5
- 1
- 0.5
0.5 1 1.5 2 1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 Global Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C) Base Period: 1980-1999
HadCRUT surface GISTEMP surface NGT surface BEST surface RCP8.5 avg Texas 5yr
+4.5 °F +3.4 °F +2.2 °F +1.1 °F 0 °F
- 1.1 °F
IPCC sensitivity range Lewis & Curry range Average model
- utput
Local increase? 5-year Average Texas Temperatures
SLIDE 6
Other Relevant Changes
- Decreased soil moisture (2 out of 3)
- Increased flooding (it depends)
- Decreased streamflow (it depends)
SLIDE 7
John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University 7
SLIDE 8
Probability of Harvey
- Probability of a tropical cyclone in
southeast Texas
- Given a storm, the probability that such a
storm will be a major hurricane
- Given a major hurricane, the probability
that the hurricane will stall
- Given a stalled hurricane, the probability of
massive rain
SLIDE 9
Probability of Harvey
(blue = less likely, red = more likely)
- Probability of a tropical cyclone in
southeast Texas
- Given a storm, the probability that such a
storm will be a major hurricane
- Given a major hurricane, the probability
that the hurricane will stall
- Given a stalled hurricane, the probability of
massive rain
SLIDE 10
Probability of Harvey
(blue = less likely, red = more likely)
- Probability of a tropical cyclone in
southeast Texas
- Given a storm, the probability that such a
storm will be a major hurricane
- Given a major hurricane, the probability
that the hurricane will stall
- Given a stalled hurricane, the probability of
massive rain
SLIDE 11
Probability of Harvey
(blue = less likely, red = more likely)
- Probability of a tropical cyclone in
southeast Texas
- Given a storm, the probability that such a
storm will be a major hurricane
- Given a major hurricane, the probability
that the hurricane will stall
- Given a stalled hurricane, the probability of
massive rain
SLIDE 12
Probability of Harvey
(blue = less likely, red = more likely)
- Probability of a tropical cyclone in
southeast Texas
- Given a storm, the probability that such a
storm will be a major hurricane
- Given a major hurricane, the probability
that the hurricane will stall
- Given a stalled hurricane, the probability of
massive rain
SLIDE 13
Probability of Harvey
(blue = less likely, red = more likely)
- Probability of a tropical cyclone in
southeast Texas
- Given a storm, the probability that such a
storm will be a major hurricane
- Given a major hurricane, the probability
that the hurricane will stall
- Given a stalled hurricane, the probability of
massive rain
SLIDE 14
The climate change debate
- A: “It’s all bad”
- B: “It doesn’t exist, the science is wrong,
and it’s good anyway”
- Reality: We’ve figured out a lot of stuff.