Climate Change at Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve: Preliminary - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change at Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve: Preliminary Results Adam Fenech Climate Lab @ University of Toronto 11 March 2011

Special Considerations • Data used is from Canada’s National Climate Data and Information Archive • Data is QA/QC’d but not homogenized (not the Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Data) • Archive sometimes removes very extreme values inadvertently Page 2

Rapid Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change (RAICC) Step 1 Step 3 Build History Build Future of Climate Extremes of Climate Extremes Observational Data Model Output Step 4 Step 2 Climate Change Evaluate and Environmental Predictions Select Climate Model 10 eco-sectors Step 5 Relative Risk Assessment Impacts of Climate Change Page 3

Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve Page 4

Glossary • Tmax = maximum temperature • Tmin = minimum temperature • Tmean = mean temperature • DJF = Winter • MAM = Spring • JJA = Summer • SON = Autumn Page 5

Looking Into the Past Page 6

Annual Mean Temperature Changes Annual Mean Temperature FABR 1968 to 2009 9 degrees Celsius 8 7 6  1.13 ° C 5 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 8 1 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Year Page 7

Annual Temperatures Tmean driven by Tmax! Observed Annual Temperature for Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2008 14 12 Temperature (°C) 10 Tmax =  1.66 ° C 8 6 Tmean =  1.13 ° C 4 2 0 Tmin =  0.61 ° C 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Page 8

Annual Maximum Temperatures by Season Tmax driven by DJF Seasonal Tmax FABR 1968 to 2009  0.8 ° C 30 25  1.4 ° C 20 Tmax (°C) 15 10  1.4 ° C 5 0 ‐ 5  3.2 ° C ‐ 10 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 9

Annual Total Precipitation Annual Total Precipitation FABR 1968 to 2008  0.06 mm/day 3.5 3 mm/day 2.5 2 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Page 10

Total Precipitation by Season FABR 1968 to 2008 Total Precipitation by Season Overall  0.06 mm/day FABR 1968 to 2008 SON  0.6 mm/day 5 4 mm/day 3 2 1 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 11

Precipitation Frequency SON, 33 DJF, 36 JJA , 28 MAM, 32 Precipitation Frequency by Season FABR 1968 to 2009 Overall  3% JJA  9% 50 45 % days per season 40 35 30 25 20 15 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 12

Precipitation Intensity Precipitation Intensity by Season Overall  FABR 1968 to 2009 0.6 mm/day JJA  1.88 mm/day 14 13 12 11 mm/day 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 13

Dry Days 1970 MAM, JJA 2009 SON Consecutive Dry Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2009 50 40 # days 30 20 10 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Year Page 14

1968 SON Wet Days 2004 JJA 3-day Maximum Precipitation Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2009 135 110 85 mm 60 35 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 0 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 Year 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Page 15

 4 days/year Hot Days 1983, 1988, 2005 Xtreme Hot Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2009 30 # of days >30°C 20 10 0 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Page 16

 6 days/year Cold Days 1968, 1976, 1989, 1994, 2003 Xtreme Cold Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2009 25 20 # of days <-20°C 15 10 5 0 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Page 17

 4 days/year Growing Season Growing Season Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2008 200 190 # of days 180 170 160 150 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Page 18

 17 days/year Frost Season Frost Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2009 100 80 # of days 60 40 20 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 Year Page 19

Page 20 Looking Into the Future

Emission Scenarios • Future climate cannot be “predicted” because future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions unknown • 3 primary GHG indicators – Human population – Global economy type – Energy type Page 21

Emission Scenarios A1 - The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. The A1 family of scenarios is characterized by:rapid economic growth; a global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines; the quick spread of new and efficient technologies; a convergent world – income and way of life converge between regions; and extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. There are subsets to the A1 family based on their technological emphasis: A1FI - an emphasis on fossil-fuels; A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources; and A1T - emphasis on non-fossil energy sources. A2 - The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by:a world of independently operating, self-reliant nations; continuously increasing population; regionally oriented economic development; and slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income. B1 - The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. The B1 scenarios are characterized by: rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy; population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1; reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies; and an emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. Page 22

Future Climate - Tmean Page 23

Future Climate - Tmean Page 24

Future Climate - Ptotal Page 25

Future Climate - Ptotal Page 26

 4 days/year during past 40 years Growing Season  33 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Growing Season Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 250 225 # of days 200 175 150 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year Observed A2 A1B B1 Page 27

 17 days/year over past 40 years Frost Season  30 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Frost Season Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 100 75 # of days 50 25 0 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year Observed A2 A1B B1 Page 28

Environmental Prediction Vulnerability/Opportunity Thresholds Eco-sector Indicator Formula Main Source Annual sum of days where daily Tmean>18 ° C and Tourism Premium Golf Scott and Jones ,2006 Tmean<28 ° C, * 80.7% where Pdaily >0 and <2.5mm, Days *64.7% where Pdaily >2.5mm and <5mm, *0 where Pdaily >10mm, and *0 where previous day’s Pdaily >20mm Water Quality Waterborne Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 90th percentile Ptotal, Curriero et al., 2001 Tmin>0 ° C; and Annual sum of days where Pdaily > Disease Auld et al., 2001 2*standard deviation of Ptotal, Tmin>0 ° C Outbreaks Annual sum of days where daily Tmin <-16 ° C Forests Southern Pine Ungerrer et al., 1999 Beetle Annual sum of 0 ° C – daily Tmean Built Pavement Raymond et al., 2003 Environment Damage Due to Frost Depth Annual sum of days where daily Tmean >30 ° C Biodiversity West Nile Virus Dohm et al., 2001 Page 29

Environmental Prediction Vulnerability/Opportunity Thresholds Eco-sector Indicator Formula Main Source Annual sum total of % where for every ° C of daily Tmean > - Human Health Salmonella Fleury et al., 2006 10 ° C, *1.2% Poisoning Fisheries Macro- Average 2-decade Tmean minus previous average 2-decade Burgmer et al., 2007 Tmean divided by 1.5 ° C * six percent invertebrate Change Annual sum of days where T mean >18 ° C (cooling); Annual sum Energy Cooling/Heati Diaz and Quayle, 1980 of days where T mean <18 ° C (heating) ng Degree Days Transportation Road Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 0 mm, *2.4% Keay and Simmonds, 2007 Accidents (Ymax + Ymin) ÷ 2 where: Ymax = (3.33 x (Tmax-10.0))-(0.084 x Agriculture Corn Heat Brown and Bootsma, 1997 Units (Tmax-10.0)2) (If values are negative, set to 0); Tmax = Daily maximum air temperature ( ° C); Ymin = (1.8 x (Tmin-4.4)) (If values are negative, set to 0); and Tmin = Daily minimum temperature ( ° C) Page 30

 1 day/year in past 40 years Premium Golf Days projected  22 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Premium Golf Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 120 100 # of days 80 60 40 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year Observed A2 A1B B1 Page 31

 14 days/yr in past 40 years Pine Beetle projected  17 days/yr by 2100 Past and Future Potential Pine Beetle Killing Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 50 40 # of days 30 20 10 0 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year Page 32 Observed A2 A1B B1