Climate Change at Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve: Preliminary - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Climate Change at Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve: Preliminary Results Adam Fenech Climate Lab @ University of Toronto 11 March 2011 Special Considerations Data used is from Canadas National Climate Data and Information Archive
Adam Fenech Climate Lab @ University of Toronto 11 March 2011
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Step 1 Build History
Observational Data
Step 5 Relative Risk Assessment
Impacts of Climate Change
Step 4
Climate Change Environmental Predictions
10 eco-sectors Step 3 Build Future
Model Output
Step 2 Evaluate and Select Climate Model
Rapid Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change (RAICC)
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5 6 7 8 9 1 9 6 8 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 7 1 9 8 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 8 2 1 2 4 2 7
Year
degrees Celsius
1.13°C
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2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year Temperature (°C)
Tmax = 1.66°C Tmean = 1.13°C Tmin = 0.61°C Tmean driven by Tmax!
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‐10 ‐5 5 10 15 20 25 30 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Tmax (°C) DJF MAM JJA SON
0.8°C 1.4°C 1.4°C 3.2°C Tmax driven by DJF
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2 2.5 3 3.5 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year mm/day
0.06 mm/day
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1 2 3 4 5
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year mm/day DJF MAM JJA SON
Overall 0.06 mm/day SON 0.6 mm/day
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DJF, 36 MAM, 32 JJA , 28 SON, 33
Precipitation Frequency by Season FABR 1968 to 2009
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year % days per season DJF MAM JJA SON
Overall 3% JJA 9%
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4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year mm/day DJF MAM JJA SON
Overall 0.6 mm/day JJA 1.88 mm/day
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10 20 30 40 50 1 9 6 8 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 8 2 3 2 8 Year # days
1970 MAM, JJA 2009 SON
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35 60 85 110 135 1 9 6 8 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 8 2 3 2 8 Year mm
1968 SON 2004 JJA
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4 days/year 1983, 1988, 2005
10 20 30 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year # of days >30°C
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5 10 15 20 25 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year # of days <-20°C
6 days/year 1968, 1976, 1989, 1994, 2003
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4 days/year
150 160 170 180 190 200 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year # of days
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17 days/year
20 40 60 80 100 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 Year # of days
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A1 - The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. The A1 family of scenarios is characterized by:rapid economic growth; a global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines; the quick spread of new and efficient technologies; a convergent world – income and way of life converge between regions; and extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. There are subsets to the A1 family based on their technological emphasis: A1FI - an emphasis on fossil-fuels; A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources; and A1T - emphasis on non-fossil energy sources. A2 - The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by:a world of independently operating, self-reliant nations; continuously increasing population; regionally oriented economic development; and slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income. B1 - The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically
but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy; population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1; reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies; and an emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.
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4 days/year during past 40 years 33 days/year by 2100
150 175 200 225 250 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year # of days Observed A2 A1B B1
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17 days/year over past 40 years 30 days/year by 2100
25 50 75 100 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year # of days Observed A2 A1B B1
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Eco-sector Indicator Formula Main Source Tourism Premium Golf Days Annual sum of days where daily Tmean>18°C and Tmean<28°C, * 80.7% where Pdaily >0 and <2.5mm, *64.7% where Pdaily >2.5mm and <5mm, *0 where Pdaily >10mm, and *0 where previous day’s Pdaily >20mm Scott and Jones ,2006 Water Quality Waterborne Disease Outbreaks Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 90th percentile Ptotal, Tmin>0°C; and Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 2*standard deviation of Ptotal, Tmin>0°C Curriero et al., 2001 Auld et al., 2001 Forests Southern Pine Beetle Annual sum of days where daily Tmin <-16°C Ungerrer et al., 1999 Built Environment Pavement Damage Due to Frost Depth Annual sum of 0°C – daily Tmean Raymond et al., 2003 Biodiversity West Nile Virus Annual sum of days where daily Tmean >30°C Dohm et al., 2001
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Eco-sector Indicator Formula Main Source Human Health Salmonella Poisoning Annual sum total of % where for every °C of daily Tmean > - 10°C, *1.2% Fleury et al., 2006 Fisheries Macro- invertebrate Change Average 2-decade Tmean minus previous average 2-decade Tmean divided by 1.5°C * six percent Burgmer et al., 2007 Energy Cooling/Heati ng Degree Days Annual sum of days where Tmean >18°C (cooling); Annual sum
Diaz and Quayle, 1980 Transportation Road Accidents Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 0 mm, *2.4% Keay and Simmonds, 2007 Agriculture Corn Heat Units (Ymax + Ymin) ÷ 2 where: Ymax = (3.33 x (Tmax-10.0))-(0.084 x (Tmax-10.0)2) (If values are negative, set to 0); Tmax = Daily maximum air temperature (°C); Ymin = (1.8 x (Tmin-4.4)) (If values are negative, set to 0); and Tmin = Daily minimum temperature (°C) Brown and Bootsma, 1997
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Past and Future Premium Golf Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100
40 60 80 100 120 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year # of days Observed A2 A1B B1
1 day/year in past 40 years projected 22 days/year by 2100
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Past and Future Potential Pine Beetle Killing Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100
10 20 30 40 50 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year # of days Observed A2 A1B B1
14 days/yr in past 40 years projected 17 days/yr by 2100
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1 968 1 978 1 988 1 998 2008 201 8 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098
Year Frost Index (000s) Observed A2 A1B B1
18% over 40 years projected 49% by 2100
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Past and Future Potential Risk of West Nile Virus Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100
15 30 45 60 75 90 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year # of days Observed A2 A1B B2
5 days/year in past 40 years projected 32 days/year by 2100
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Premium Golf Days 1 day/year in past 40 years projected 22 days/year by 2100 Potential Pine Beetle Killing Days 14 days/yr in past 40 years projected 17 days/yr by 2100 Pavement Damage 18% over 40 years projected 49% by 2100 Risk of West Nile Virus 5 days/year in past 40 years projected 32 days/year by 2100
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