Census Transformation: progress in New Zealand NTTS, Brussels March - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Census Transformation: progress in New Zealand

NTTS, Brussels March 2015 Christine Bycroft, Statistics NZ

Christine.Bycroft@stats.govt.nz

• Population:

four and a half million

• Indigenous Māori: 15%
• Overseas born:
• ne quarter
• NZ-born in Australia: half a million
• Moved last 5 years:

half

• Travel journeys annual: five million

NEW ZEALAND

The current census

5 yearly full enumeration 2011 Census cancelled – Christchurch earthquake 2013 Census:

• hand delivery of paper forms
• 34% online response
• “no change” census

Drivers for change

Increasing cost of census

• Including more difficult to get responses

Sustainability of the current model? Opportunities from new technologies Availability of administrative data Increasing govt push for integration of data to improve public services

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Census Transformation

Strategy:

Short-term: Modernise the current census model and make it more efficient Long-term: Investigate alternative ways of producing small area population, social and economic statistics.

• different frequencies for census (5 or 10 yearly) and
• exploring the feasibility of a census based on

administrative data.

Vision: Administrative census, with survey support

2018 Census 2012 2014 2015

2023- 2026

Timeframes

Phased and iterative approach, around census cycle

Recommend long-term direction Report to cabinet 2018 Census agreed Strategy agreed Mid 2020s Census??

Modernising the survey-based census

Maintain the quality of census information Reduce the cost of collection – Canadian model

• Reduce field staff
• Mail-out majority of dwellings
• Maximise self-response, targeted non-response follow-up
• Digital by default – 70% online target
• Increased integration – Statistics NZ and across

government

• Increase use of administrative data

Challenges for 2018

Moving from ‘no change’ to very large changes

• Falling back into ‘old’ thinking

Lots of unknowns still, some things not built yet Will most people fill in their census without a personal visit? New communications needed Integration => far more dependencies

Long-term census transformation

Census information: what is essential? Legal and cross-government policy issues Public acceptability Technical investigations

• IDI: linked admin data – building for research
• Linked 2013 Census to IDI
• Methodological work: coverage survey and population estimation
• Annual large sample survey – size and cost

Will existing admin data be enough??

NZ Has

Birth, Death, Marriage registers Electoral registrations National IDs for tax, health, education Linked admin sources (IDI) Migration records Privacy Act

NZ does NOT have

Central Population Register Unique person ID used across government National address/ building / dwelling registers Mandatory address change

Overlapping data sources

Population coverage of admin sources

Minimum Quality Standard At least:

• 90% within +/- 1.5% (dark

grey)

• All within +/-5% (light

grey) Using linked administrative data available in IDI, Dec 14 refresh

• Included if recent activity in tax or health or education data (1 year)
• Removed if left NZ, using link to migration travel records

Challenges using admin sources

Population coverage without a population register => over-coverage and under-coverage Probabilistic linking using name, dob, sex Location information – out of date, missing Ethnicity – not standardised across govt Maori Descent and iwi – possible? Limited attributes from administrative sources

How to resolve??

Statistical methodologies: coverage survey and population estimation methods Large scale survey? (‘combined census’) Increase use of admin data in survey model Work across government – design in quality Census, administrative data, and government services are integrated and inter-dependent systems