Carl Parker U3A presentation on 12th July 2018 - prcis What is - - PDF document

Carl Parker U3A presentation on 12th July 2018 - précis What is Terrorism? How did we get to where we are today and what risks does it present to us?

Introduction - Background of working for 10 years as Prevent coordinator in Croydon - Prevent being one of the streams of the governments overall CONTEST counter-terrorism strategy. An overview of the main characteristics of terrorism followed, with the caveat that much of this does not apply to Islamic State (discussed later), which should be considered as a proto-state that employed terrorist tactics.

• It is asymmetric warfare which is waged by a very small group that would
• therwise have little to no influence. By employing acts of extreme violence they

draw attention to themselves and generate a reaction out of all proportion to their size.

• There is reverse asymmetry because governments are bound by social, moral, legal,

and political constraints that are irrelevant to the ideologically driven terrorist.

• Terrorists will be driven by an all encompassing ideology that polarising positions.

There are no grey areas.

• Terrorists cannot and do not wish to engage in normal, democratic political
• processes. They do not believe in electoral processes and representative democracy.
• Targets for terrorists are for the most part civilians. They wish to induce a feeling

that no-one is safe at anytime, in anyplace - creating a climate of fear that is massively disproportionate to the reality of the threat.

• It creates a climate where governments may be pressured to react by its citizenry

and will in any case feel compelled to put measures in place to protect its citizens.

• Due to their small size terrorist groups cannot engage militarily with a government

they oppose.

• The end justifies the means. Achieving the goal is worth any price and we should

bear this in mind when terrorists are considered as madmen. They are very sane.

The primary aims of terrorism were considered. Ideologies can be considered, broadly, under two headings: temporal and transformational. Temporal aims are those that can be achieved within existing frameworks. E.g. the IRA sought the unification of the Six Counties with the Irish Republic. While not prepared to engage in the political process it recognises that the British Government exists and has to be negotiated with. Lenin’s dismissal of a terrorist as “A liberal with a bomb” conforms to this idea. These terrorists share the idea that a government canoe negotiated with. Transformational ideologies are like Lenin, revolutionary in that the seek to

• verthrow an existing order. Thus Al Qaeda and other Islamist groups do not seek
• negotiation. They seek the destruction of the existing world order which would be

replaced by the Caliphate and the fulfilment of apocalyptic prophecies would follow

• n from this.

Three historical groups were considered as the length of time terrosrism has existed was discussed.

• The Sicarii - who were a splinter group of the Zealots, opposed to the Roman
• ccupation of Judea. It literally means “Dagger men” after the curved blades they

carried to attack individuals seen as collaborators or as representatives of the Roman Empire. Attacks always took place in crowded places. As with today’s terrorists that had an awareness of the value of publicity - and the creation of a climate of fear.

• The Hashishin. The name does not derive from hashish, which they didn’t use at
• all. It is from the Arabic “Asasyun” - people of principle. They were Shia Muslim

sect that looked to establish a pure form of Islam and were active from the 11th to 13th centuries. Again they favoured acts of terror in public places.

• The Thugis. A secret Hindu cult - worshippers of the goddess Kali. Derivation of
• ur word ‘thug’. They were a group of robbers and murderers, active from the 13th

to 19th centuries. Very codified practice of attacks. It is estimated that they killed around half a million people over 600 years. Various historians assert they were first example of state sponsored terrorism . Something I don’t agree with. The term Terrorism.

Came from “the Reign Of Terror”, during the French Revolution 1789 - 99). This was violence from above, with those in power wanting to take violence off the streets and place it in the hands of the revolutionary government. The reign of terror lasted for about a year from 1793 to 1794. The Jacobin club v Royalists & Girondins. Led by Robespierre, Danton St. Just and others, who in turn died violently themselves. “…the basis of popular government during a revolution is both virtue and terror; virtue, without which terror is baneful; terror, without which virtue is powerless. Terror is nothing more than speedy, severe and inflexible justice…” Maximilian Robespierre - February 1794 Anarchist terror A mostly forgotten terrorist campaign, as pervasive as Islamist terrorism is today. As with Islamism, there was no coherent organisation - but there was a common aim

• f abolishing government to establish ‘perfect freedom’.

Attacks on major figures, such as Czar Alexander II, French President Carnot, Empress Elizabeth of Austria, Spanish PM Canovas del Castillo and President William McKinley of USA. These were major, headline attacks. Many bombs in many countries killing civilians. Notable attacks at St Lazare station in Paris and on Wall Street in New York. These attacks on civilians undermined the credibility of the cause. The parallel rise in civil liberties. And the legalisation and growth of trade unions with the consequent establishment of workers rights all served to bring the terrorism campaign to and end. Anarchist terror formed the background to Joseph Conrad’s novel The Secret Agent. Other terrorist causes In late Victorian times Fenian terrorism was active and predated the campaigns o the IRA. Assassination of Franz Ferdinand by Gavrilo Princep set off chain of actions that precipitated WW1 In the post war era the most notable activity took place in the Middle East with the activities of Haganah/The Stern Gang in Palestine in support of the establishment of the state of Israel (bombing of King David Hotel in Jerusalem referred to) and reaction by Palestinian groups spoken of.

Terrorism from the 1960s into the 1970s Development of mass communication and ability of travel quickly and freely around the world led to developments in 1960s and 70s. Noted that terrorist action in support of various ideologies around the world took place. Black September and the attack and murder of Israeli athletes at Munich Olympics in 1972 was spoken of. Noted how presence of world press amplified the story and gave the terrorists a worldwide audience. The Armed Revolutionary Group bombed Bologna station in support of their extreme right wing cause. Again massive publicity around the world. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (GC) noted for their activities in attacking aircraft and it was suggested that they were the real perpetrators of the Lockerbie bomb. What do terrorist groups have in common? While primary causes of terrorist activity are many and various, there are a number of secondary motives that they have in common - revenge, renown and reaction Revenge - for real or imagined slights. A significant number of attacks take place on anniversaries of earlier actions - eg McVeigh and Oklahoma City bombing on anniversary of ending of Waco siege. The 7/7 bombers on London transport claimed, in martyrdom videos, they were acting in revenge for UK involvement in Iraq. Reaction - Publicity gives terrorists validation - it is their communication to the

• world. Their action demonstrates their existence and strength and it seeks to provoke

a reaction. There is often a huge difference between the reaction they expect & the reaction that

• ensues. Bin Laden anticipated the collapse of the US economy after the 9?11 attack,

but instead the war on terror continues to this day. Governments have to defend their citizens - so a quick response is expected Renown - terrorists need publicity - but also seek glory - for their group and their

• wn personal glory.

e.g the Munich Olympics attack 1972 (see above)

9/11 gave Al Qaeda & Osama bin Laden worldwide renown Personal glory - all killed in course of an action become revered figures within the

• movement. The IRA named “patriot dead” who were remembered and glorified.

Families of “martyrs” receive support from organisation - money and an enhanced status within their community. Being a wanted man validates an activists position as a true patriot. How can terrorists carry out such evil acts? They see their actions as moral, in defence of a cause and the regimes they act against are the embodiment of evil. The act aims to redress social, economic or political unfairness. A suicide mission demonstrates moral superiority. The bomber has such a strong belief s/he is prepared to die for it. In a single act all three secondary motives are manifested; exacting revenge, attaining renown and eliciting a reaction. It is important to remember they are not insane. Their reasoning and morality may be totally at odds with our values, but there is a logic to their activities. How or why does a terrorist campaign end? It was noted that terrorist campaigns do eventually end. Anarchist terror (above) lasted over 60 years. Given the variety of ideologies, that they would not be expected to end in the same way. When campaigns end it will probably be attributable to one of he following causes: Negotiation and co-option into the political process - (P)IRA, ETA The aims of the campaign are achieved - Irgun, African National Congress Base support for the campaign alienated through extremity of violence - GIA Decapitation of the leadership - Sendero Luminoso, Red Army Fraction cf. Al Qaeda and how death of bin Laden has not brought en end to Al Qaeda Extermination of the group - Tamil Tigers

Motivation for the cause evaporates or it becomes a historical irrelevance - anarchist terror, Weather Underground Reorientation of the groups aims - FARC Failure - infighting, fractionalisation - Combat 18 The roots of Islamism Post WW1 the Ottoman Empire and the Caliphate both came to an end Abdul a’la Maududi (a Pakistani) and Hassan al-Banna (an Egyptian) Muslim

• Brotherhood. Both saw need for Islam to return to fundamental principles.

It was of benefit to the world and so should become a world religion, but more significantly saw Islam as a political struggle. Syed Qutb in the 1940s and 50s followed. Notable work - Milestones 1) called for establishment of a vanguard to reclaim Islam 2) embraced the concept of Takfir and said a leader who does not impose Sharia law is an apostate. It was this think that ultimately led to the assassination of Egyptian president Anwar Sadat. Takfiris believed they were entitled to kill anyone and everyone who stood in their way - it is a divine duty. Islamists perceive the west is trying to destroy Islam. Growth of Islamism. Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979. This turned into the Cold War by proxy - US funnelled money to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) who passed it on to mujahideen. ISI set up training camps. An estimated 80,000 passed through. ISI also channeled weapons supplied by US. After Soviets left ISI continued to support Islamist groups across Asia (Mumbai attack by Lashkar-e-Toiba supported by ISI). It is 99.99% certain they knew bin Laden was in Abbottabad and it is probable that they located him there. Supported Taliban’s seizure of power in Afghanisatan. Initially supported the Pakistan Taliban, but they went out of their control and it now sees ISI as enemy.

Influence of Abdullah Azzam, a Palestinian who published a fatwa “Defence of the Muslim Lands”(1979) This called to the “Ummah” the worldwide Muslim congregation to come and fight in Afghanistan to defend Muslim land. Osama bin Laden responded in 1984 and travelled to Pakistan. Azzam and Osama bin Laden establish Services Office in Peshawar, Pakistan. ‘Afghan Arabs’ emerge. Role of Afghan Arabs has been overstated. They were attached to Mujahideen groups. Afghanis not impressed with their fighting prowess. The development of Al Qaeda - started as a bureaucratic exercise to keep track of arrivals and where people were sent. OBL was well funded - family civil engineering company background - which led to competition for his favour and attention among competing jihadi groups. Eventually led to AQ merger with Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Battle of Jaji - May 1987. One action attributable to Afghan Arabs. Fight against Soviet Special Forces. The Soviet Union withdrew completely by February 1989. Azzam - Assassinated in November 1989, as result of factionalism with jihadist movement. Sudan - Islamist coup in June 1989. Invitation to bin Laden to settle there, which was accepted on 1992. OBL made offer to Saudi govermnent to become guards of Holy cities of Mecca and

• Medina. This was rejected.

Bosnia The call once more to the umma. Many with experience of fighting in Afghanistan answered the call. Manifestation of Islamist terrorism With the first Gulf War Oil was enraged at present of US troops in Saudi Arabia, though they were confined to their bases and had nothing to do with Mecca and Median. OBL issued two Fatwas.

The first was in 1996 - against US because of troops in Saudi Arabia. OBL alone in issuing this. A second fatwa was issued in1998 - This was in the name of World Islamic Front for Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders and had five signatories representing other jihadi groups as well as AQ. AQ attacks on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in August 1998 was followed by the attack on the USS Cole in Aden harbour AQ not the only active jihadist group. The Luxor massacre in 1997 by Islamist group al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya resulted in 62 people being killed. Parallel terrorist threats Given US already alerted to Islamist threat after World Trade Centre attack in 1993 which was inspired by the “Blind Sheikh” - Omar Abdul Rahman - who was a resident of Jersey City. Virulently anti-American. Attack was carried out by Rams Yousef who planted van bomb in car park below WTC. Resilience of the structure foiled the attack, though substantial damage done. US intelligence and counter terrorism resources directed to very real internal threat. Oklahoma City April 19th 1995 - attack on Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building. Carried out by Timothy McVeigh, Terry Nichols and others. It marked the anniversary of 1993 Waco siege. Offices of among others DEA and

• ATF. Also a children’s day care centre. 168 people killed (19 were children) and 680

injured. Other threats such as The Unabomber (active from 1978 - 95) and the Atlanta Olympics bomb attack (1996) also served to divert attention from Islamist threat. The Islamist threat announced to the world The September 11th 2001 attack on the World Trade Centre and Pentagon announced the threat to the world. Osama bin Laden’s immediate aim of bringing down the US economy failed, but he succeeds in other unforeseen ways. Military costs alone of “War on Terror” to the US amount to $2.1 trillion. The indirect costs around the world probably more than double that.

On top there are the tens of thousands of lives lost. The “War On Terror” succeeds in creating more terrorists AQ is immeasurably bigger and more widespread now than in 2001 Guantànamo Bay has caused worldwide resentment and questions the legitimacy of stated US aims. With the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent dismantling of Ba’ath party and the demobilisation of the Iraqi army US created a situation it cannot control. Any initial gains from deposing Saddam Hussein lost when water and electricity supplies regularly failed and when shops are empty of food and other necessities. This led to the alienation of Iraqi population which was compounded with civilian victims of drone strikes. In the struggle against the US forces a Jordaniam Abu Musab al Zarqawi established Al Qaeda in Iraq. AQI was guided by the manual “The Management of Savagery” written by Abu Bakr

• Naji. This discussed the need to create and manage nationalist and religious violence

and the provocation of military responses from the superpowers in order to recruit and train guerrilla fighters and to create martyrs. The imposition of savagery led to resentments in the population and together with US funding this led to “The Surge” in 2007 and the defeat of AQI. The US blundered with the creation of Camp Bucca. This was an internment camp that saw up to 100,000 people pass through its gates over 6 years. The innocent were arrested along with the guilty and it also led to Ba’athist party functionaries meeting up with jihadists. The Baathists offered jihadists organisational skills and military

• discipline. Jihadists offered Baathists a new found purpose.

The Islamic State emerges In the wake of the Arab Spring, two organisations rose from among many competing for primacy in Syria. These were Al Nusra & what was to become ISIS (it evolved from AQI and underwent a number of name changes). Islamic State was not a terrorist organisation - it was a proto-state that engaged with terrorist tactics (though in its present degenerated state can probably be considered as a terrorist organisation per se).

The characteristics that distinguished IS from a terrorist organisation were it had military & civilian arms of government. There was a standing army of thousands of troops that engaged in direct armed conflict. There was a form of legal system & a judiciary The state both levied taxes and controlled prices It had a basic medical and social care system and an education system (albeit extremely restricted in what it taught) As a state it derived income - from the sale of oil (ironically its biggest customer was the Syrian state with which it was in direct conflict), selling looted antiquities on the black market, taking hostages and raising ransoms either from nation states (officially this never happened) or from the families of hostages, taxes on non-Muslims who would be allowed to practice their religion upon receipt of payment. It was in its early days primarily anti Shi’ite (the near enemy) rather than the west (the far enemy). Contrast with AQ - AQ never controlled any territory At the time of Arab Spring it was never more than a few hundred strong It saw the re-establishment of the Caliphate as long term aim. It had no military capability and could not engage in a fixed battle. It was concerned with the far enemy - the United States, Europe and other areas of the world it saw as anti Islam. The “Takfir” doctrine revived. In declaring opposing Islamic regimes as apostates, they were excommunicated and this became legitimised as targets by IS. IS also launched a propaganda offensive with hundreds of items being published on lie in addition to their online magazine Dabiq (named after an area in Syria where a prophecy declared the forces of Islam would meet the forces of Rome, characterised as the west generally, where Islam would emerge victorious and this would mark the ultimate victory and the “End Of Days”). There engaged in the production of high quality videos using and abusing much western imagery as well as producing gruesome films of unremitting savagery.

Radicalisation or Recruitment? There is a strong argument that this propaganda

• ffensive succeeded in drawing recruits to join the Islamic State, with our necessarily

radicalising them. Once in the state they might then become radicalised. IS influence became more widely spread with Boko Haram in West Africa and al Shabaab in East Africa pledging bayat (oaths of fealty) to IS. Today IS has suffered a 98%+ loss of territory. It’s army of around 40,000 men is now down to fewer than 3,000. However the Caliphate idea has not totally collapsed and IS still maintains an online propaganda presence. It is still high quality but quantity much reduced. Terrorism in the UK in the 20th Century In the 20th century Irish terrorism was the main problem on the UK mainland - it was a campaign which we found comprehensible in terms of aims and demands. The Birmingham pub bombs in November 1974 marked the beginning of the main

• nslaught on the mainland.

What we saw with the IRA was an evolution in tactics - from targeting civilians (which the IRA leadership came to realise had a detrimental effect on its campaign) to economic targets such as buildings in the City of London. While the targets were

• stensibly economic this did not preclude civilian casualties and deaths.

Attacks with notable civilian death tolls included the bombs planted in Warrington and Omagh. For citizens of the UK the terrorist threat became normalised - we came to accept bag searches etc. There were also minor groups such as The Angry Brigade, the Animal Liberation Front and Sons of Glyndwr. There was also far right activity as manifested thorough the actions of David Copeland, the “London Nail Bomber”. The Birmingham pub bomb murders saw the first anti-terrorist legislation introduced – Prevention of Terrorism Act 1974. It remained in law until 1989. The IRA campaign came to an end in 1997 with the Good Friday Agreement negotiated by the Blair government. Dissident groups remain active. Terrorism in the UK in the 21st Century

Normal members of community - dying for people in a place they had never visited. The July 7th 2005 attack was a profound shock. The attack was carried out by “homegrown” suicide bombers. These were heretofore normal members of the community who died for people in a place they had never visited. The attacks on London transport saw 52 deaths and more than 800 people injured in the four bombing attacks. The subsequently released “martyrdom” videos of two of the bombers showed their motivations, despite government denials that foreign policy had anything to do with the attacks. “We are at war and I am a soldier” - Mohammad Sidique Khan in his videotaped statement. “…until you pull all your troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq, …and until you release all Muslim prisoners from Belmarsh… know that if you fail to comply with this then know that this war will never stop.” - Shehzad Tanweer in his videotaped statement. The failed July 21st 2005 attack was independent and nothing to do with July 7th although intelligence analysis indicates that some members of both groups may have met in terrorist training camps in Pakistan. The attacks led to the introduction of the Prevention of Terrorism Act 2005. This act introduced the unpopular and divisive Control Orders which placed restrictions on individuals without any legal process being gone through. It also led to the introduction of the CONTEST counter-terrorism strategy. The wide range of terrorist attacks in the UK in the 21st was very6 briefly looked at. These included a number AQ inspired attacks or attempted attacks Richard Reid, the “shoe bomber” - December 2001 Abortive fertiliser bomb plot 2004 Abortive 2006 Transatlantic airline attack Abortive Tiger Tiger attack -> Glasgow airport attack 2007 Nicky Reilly - Giraffe restaurant, Exeter 2008

Andrew Ibrahim, Bristol, July 2009 (arrested before he could initiate attack) Umar Abdulmutallab - “underpants bomber” - December 2009 Roshonara Choudhry - attempted murder of Stephen Timms MP - May 2010 Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale - murder of Lee Rigby - May 2013 The situation with IS has changed radically, with the call to stay home rather than try to travel to Iraq/Syria. “If you can kill a disbelieving American or European… or an Australian, or a Canadian, or any other disbeliever from the disbelievers waging war, including the citizens of the countries that entered into a coalition against the Islamic State, then rely upon Allah, and kill him in any manner or way however it may be… If you are not able to find an IED or a bullet, then single out the disbelieving American, Frenchman, or any of their allies. Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him”

• Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, 22nd September 2014

An extreme right wing threat remains as manifested by: The murder of Mohammed Saleem in Walsall. He was murdered by Pavlo Lapshyn who had also planted bombs. Jo Cox MP who was the victim of long time extreme right wing activist Thomas Mair Makram Ali, at the Finsbury Park mosque who was murdered by Darren Osborne, who had self radicalised thorough immersion in extreme right wing websites. The failure of the press to publicise extreme right wing activity was highlighted through the case of Ian & Nicky Davidson who were members of the Aryan Strike Force and had successfully produced ricin. They had been arrested, charged, tried and convicted with virtually no press coverage given to the case. This contrasted with the Wood Green “ricin plot” which was highly publicised, yet no evidence of even an attempt to produce ricin was discovered. Much publicity was given to multiple

• arrests. Far less publicity was given to all but one being released without charge. One

person was convicted on charges that had nothing to do with the original arrests. The risk of being a victim of a terrorist attack.

Consideration was given to the fear-mongering against the reality of the risk of being a victim of a terrorist attack. This chart was considered. While publicity is given from time to time of terrorists trying to produce and employ atomic or biological weapons, which if successful would have massive impact, the probability is very low. The need for physicists, metallurgists, engineers, the creation

• f extremely expensive specialised equipment plant etc or the need for biochemists,

virologists, biologists and again of extremely expensive specialised plant and equipment make the probability low. However the probability of being a victim of even a so-called “lone wolf” remain extremely small. Far lower than being the victim of a traffic accident. Finally future risks were considered. Hamza bin Laden, son of Osama is emerging. He is currently a figurehead and to gain credibility and traction he needs to establish himself which may be achieved through a spectacular attack. He emerged in March 2017 with a radio broadcast and subsequent videos. He is looking to re-establish AQ as the pre-eminent jihadi organisation. He probably has a better chance than the dour Ayman al-Zawahiri, who succeeded Osama bin Laden, but is not charismatic at all.

Other risks might arise from the animal rights movement. Should this happen, it is likely to be a campaign targeted against economic targets, because attacks people would be against their ethos. One other area could be as a result of climate change - a war for water. In Europe we could see a flight from Mediterranean countries northward as the area becomes uninhabitable (based on the projection that in years to come that the south of England could become as warm as the south of France). Fresh water could become a very scarce resource, with demand soaring and sources becoming protected and rationed. A brief and very selective bibliography was shown. Al Qaeda by Jason Burke - published in 2004 so predates 7/7. A very good introduction to the birth and diversification of the organisation. Also by the same author are The 9/11 Wars as well as The New Threat From Islamic Militancy. The Looming Tower by Lawrence Wright - a brilliant and Pulitzer Prize winning account of how the 9/11 attacks were formulated and implemented and how the US intelligence agencies between them had the information to halt the attacks but failed to share that information. What Terrorist Want by Louise Richardson - a former Harvard academic, who with her upbringing in Northern Ireland could have become a terrorist herself. She is now Vice Chancellor of Oxford since 2015 We Love Death As You Love Life - Britain’s Suburban Terrorists by Raffaello Pantucci - Director of International Security Studies at Royal United Service

• Institute. Pantucci examines the roots of Islamist extremism in the UK and how it

evolved, looking at the main actors and the ideologies and grievances that led to today’s situation. Brothers In Arms Camille Tawil - journalist working for Arabic newspaper Al Hayat. Tawil looks at the history and conflict between various jihadist groups from the 1980s on and how the growth and influence of AQ came to be. How Terrorism Ends by Audrey Kurth Cronin - Professor at the American University in Washington DC. Cronin is a highly respected academic who has analysed how very different terrorist campaigns cand and do come to an end. Killing in God’s Name by Jessica Stern. Stern is a professor at Boston University. She risked life in obtaining interviews with some very violent people. She examines terrorism under a number of different religious flags.

Islamist Terrorism in Europe by Petter Nesser. Nesser is a Norwegian academic who examines the development of Islamist militancy across Europe over more than twenty years.