CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015 Presented by Mr. Sung Bonna September - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015

Presented by Mr. Sung Bonna

September 2015

PART I: CAMBODIA ECONOMICS OVERVIEW

Since 1999

DEVELOPMENT PROJECT IN PHNOM PENH

3

Since 1999

FACTOR EFFECT TO REAL ESTATE

4

Economic Interest Rate Population Political

Since 1999

• I. POPULATION GROWTH

5

Total Population in Cambodia: 15,394,276 Phnom Penh: 1,445,902 Source: Ministry of Planning Data as of: April 2015

• Based on this statistic show that in average

the population growth approximate 11%.

• To compare between 2015 and 2010 the

population growth in Cambodia increase around 10%.

• In Phnom Penh increased around 32% in

2015 compared to 2010 and around 9% compared to 2008.

11,437,656 13,395,682 14,248,812 15,394,276 999,804 1,327,615 1,095,397 1,445,902

• 2,000,000

4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 1998 2008 2010 2015

Population Growth in Cambodia 1998 to 2015

Cambodia Phnom Penh

Since 1999

• II. CAMBODIA GDP GROWTH RATE

6

Source: ADB Data as of: September 2015 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 e 2015 e 2016

5.90% 6.00% 7.20% 7.20% 7.30% 7.00% 7.20%

GDP Growth Rate

• In 2015 as an estimation the GDP will be growth approximately 7% again due to

the expansion of garment manufacturing, construction, and services in particular tourism, finance and real estate services.

Since 1999

• III. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI)

7

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Agriculture Industry Service Tourism Agriculture Industry Service Tourism 2014 5months 2015

Capital Investment in Q1 2015

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Agriculture Industry Service Tourism Agriculture Industry Service Tourism 2014 5months 2015

Number of Project Investment in Q1 2015

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Capital Investment Q1 2015: 2,872.7 million USD Number of Project Investment: 37 Projects Source: CDC

• Regarding to the report from the Council for Development of Cambodia found that FID of first

three months 2015 (approximately 2,872.7 million USD) has increased 5 times compared to the same period of 2014 (approximately 446 million USD).

Since 1999

• IV. NUMBER OF TOURIST ARRIVAL

8 Source: Ministry of Tourism, Cambodia Data as of June 2015

• Due to the report from Ministry of Tourism of Cambodia in 2014 number of tourist increase

around 7% compare to 2013 which contribute approximate 2.7 billion USD (Increased 7%) to GDP

• f Cambodia.
• For six months of 2015 number of tourists have arrived Cambodia approximate 2.3 million tourists

increased around 4.6% compared the same period in 2014.

• 500,000

1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun-2015

Number of Tourist Visit in Cambodia

Since 1999

NUMBER OF BUILDING & FLOORS

9

100 200 300 400 500

From 5 - 9 Floor From 10 - 19 Floor From 20 - 29 Floor From 30 - 39 Floor From 40 Floor up

310 67 3 5 1

407 187 22 8 4

Number of Building

2014 2015

Source: Ministry Land Management Urban Planning and Construction Data as of Q1 2015

Average Percentage Changed 63%

• In 2015, the building which approve to

construct from 5-9th floor increase approximate 30% while the huge amount of building construction from 20-29th floor increase approximate 600% compare to 2014.

• For 2nd Quarter 2015 the total capital

investment equal 808 million USD.

$- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 2015 Millions

Capital Investment

Since 1999

AVERAGE CREDIT INTEREST RATE

10

22.7% 18.5% 15.3% 16.8% 16.1% 16.4% 18.4% 18.9%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Million USD 500 Million USD 1,000 Million USD 1,500 Million USD 2,000 Million USD 2,500 Million USD

Loan in Real Estate Sector

Total Loan Loan in Real Estate Sector 18.6% 23.1% 22.3% 22.4% 23.1% 22.8% 19.4% 11.8% 15.9% 16.3% 15.8% 16.2% 16.7% 16.0% 15.8% 16.4% 17.2% 15.4% 11.6% 11.4% 11.5%11.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Average Credit Interest Rate per Annum

Reil USD

Source: National Bank of Cambodia Data as of Jun 2015

• Due to Report from NBC in Cambodia has 36 commercial

banks, 11 Special Banks, 41 MFIs.

• As of June 2015 total loan for real estate sector approximately

2,021.83 million USD which consist of Housing Loan approximately 699.09 million USD, Construction Loan approximately 889.41 million USD and related to real estate activities approximately 433.33 million USD with an average interest 11.2% per annum for USD currency.

PART II: REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW IN CAMBODIA

Since 1999

OFFICE SPACE

12 Data as of March 2015

• The estimation of total current supply for 2015 approximately 300,000s sqm increased

approximately 15% compared to the same period 2014. If everything stability the total supply in 2018 will be increase up to 345,000 sqm.

• Average increase annually around 10%.

Sqm 50,000 Sqm 100,000 Sqm 150,000 Sqm 200,000 Sqm 250,000 Sqm 300,000 Sqm 350,000 Sqm 400,000 Sqm 2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018

Total Supply Forcasting Office Supply

Since 1999

• In 2015, the Grade “A” office has been supply around 27% in the market

while Grade “B” supply around 71% and Grade “C” around 2%.

• For 2015 the supply on Office Grade “A” increased around 10% compare to

2014 while Grade “B” declined around 10% and Grade “C” still remain unchanged.

13

OFFICE SPACE

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Grade A Grade B Grade C

Total Supply by Grade

2015 2014 2013

Since 1999

OFFICE SPACE (CON’T)

14

$- $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 Grade A Grade B Grade C $29.50 $17.50 $9.00 $26.50 $15.00 $7.50

Average Rental Price

2015 2014

Comparing Rate between Q1 2015 to Q1 2014: Grade A: 11% increased Grade B: 17% Increased Grade C: 20% increased Average Percentage Changed 48% (The price per sqm include VAT but it is not include management fee)

Data as of March 2015

Since 1999

OFFICE SPACE (CON’T)

15 Data as of March 2015

• To compare between Q1-2015 with Q1-2014 the occupancy rate has been declined about 4%.
• There some reasons for declining occupancy rate:
• Large amount of supply
• Move out to independent building
• Increasing renting price

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2015

Occupany Rate from 2006-Q1 2015

Occupancy Rate Vacant 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Occupancy Rate) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q1-2015 Q1-2014 Q1-2013

Comparing Occupany Rate by Quarter

Occupancy Rate Vacant

Since 1999

RETAIL

16 Data as of March 2015

• Total Supply 2015: Approximately 370,000 sqm
• Total Supply 2014: Approximately 350,000 sqm
• Average Percentage approximate 5% increased
• The total supply also included the Constructed building

around 14 retail.

• Just an estimation in 2018 the retail will increase

approximate 900,000sqm with projects 27 projects

Sqm 200,000 Sqm 400,000 Sqm 600,000 Sqm 800,000 Sqm 1,000,000 Sqm 2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018

Forcasting Total Supply of Retailby Year

Since 1999

RETAIL (CON’T)

17 Data as of March 2015

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Min Average Max

Rental Price for Rentail

2015 2014

• Based on research study show that rental fee has been declined in average 20% due to large

amount of supply as well as the price competition between new comer and existing retail on the market.

• The market price of renting has been change at the low level in order to attract more tenants.
• However, in range of rental fee still get the high gap between low price and high price in to 2015.

Min 7 $ 20 $ 16 $ 30 $ Average 12 $ 60 $ 30 $ 55 $ Max 18 $ 100 $ 43 $ 90 $ Range Price 2015 Range Price 2014

(The rental fee will be change based on the location of the store and class of retail)

Since 1999

RETAIL (CON’T)

18 Data as of March 2015

• Occupancy rate 74% in 2015 while in 2014 Occupancy

rate 80% declined around 6%

• There are some factors made occupancy rate to be

declined such as:

• Increasing Supply on the Market
• People expected on the quality of product due to living

standard growth.

• Customers need modernization of facilities and good

design.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2015 2014 2013

Occupancy Rate of Retail in Phnom Penh

Occupancy Rate Vacant

Since 1999

APARTMENT

19

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Chamkamorn Daun Penh Toul Kork 7 Makara Chroy Chong… Sen Sok Mean Chey Russey Keo Dangkor

Supply by Location

2015 2014

• Year 2015, Total Supply 5,500 Units
• Year 2014, Total Supply 4,400 Units
• Year 2013, Total Supply 3,600 Units

Average Annually Percentage Changed 20%

• Khan Chamkarmon is a leading supply among other

Khan in Phnom Penh around 50% of total supply.

Data as of June 2015

Units 1,000 Units 2,000 Units 3,000 Units 4,000 Units 5,000 Units 6,000 Units 2015 2014 2013 Total Supply Apartment In Phnom Penh by Year

Since 1999

APARTMENT (CON’T)

20

$- $1,000.00 $2,000.00 $3,000.00 $4,000.00 $5,000.00 Studio 1 Bed 2 Beds 3 Beds Penthou se Grade A $1,450.00 $1,625.00 $2,175.00 $2,500.00 $5,000.00 Grade B $1,050.00 $1,150.00 $1,625.00 $1,750.00 $2,350.00 Grade C $525.00 $650.00 $1,050.00 $1,600.00 $1,650.00

Average Rental Price in 2015

Grade A Grade B Grade C $- $500.00 $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 $3,500.00 $4,000.00 $4,500.00 $5,000.00 Studio 1 Bed 2 Beds 3 Beds Penthous e Grade A $1,450.00 $1,625.00 $2,200.00 $2,750.00 $4,600.00 Grade B $1,050.00 $1,325.00 $1,750.00 $2,550.00 $2,350.00 Grade C $512.00 $875.00 $750.00 $1,250.00 $1,750.00

Average Rental Price in 2014

Grade A Grade B Grade C

Data as of June 2015

• To compared rental price between 2015

with 2014 it has been declined around 3%.

• For Grade “A” rental price still remain

unchanged in average.

• For Grade “B” rental price has declined

around 10% while Grade “C” increased around 8%.

• Factor to make rental fee declined:
• Increasing amount of supply
• More competitive with Condominium

after completed construction.

• Price competition among the market.

Since 1999

APARTMENT (CON’T)

21 Data as of June 2015

2015Occupancy rate 92% 2014 Occupancy rate 93% Average Percentage Changed -1%. Anyways for these three consecutive year the occupancies rate of Apartment still 90% to 95%

92% 93% 95% 8% 7% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Q2-2014 Q2-2015 Q2-2013

Occupancy Rate of Apartment

Occupancy Rate Vacancy

Since 1999

• Due to the large amount of starting construction project in 2014 approximately 14 projects, for

2015 approximate 22 projects has been launched to sale.

• Based on this starting in average for one project spent around 3 to 4years to completed. It effect

to the amount of the supply in 2017 and 2018 around 3 times to compare with current amount

• f supply (approximate 3,600 units in 2015).
• In average increasing by year around 50% for annually. In 2018 condominium increase up to

15,000 units.

22

CONDOMINIUM

Projects 10 Projects 20 Projects 30 Projects 40 Projects 50 Projects 60 Projects

2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018

Number of Completed Condominium Project by Year

Units 5,000 Units 10,000 Units 15,000 Units 20,000 Units

2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018

Number of Completed Condominium Project by Units

Since 1999

CONDOMINIUM

23

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Project Development by Location

2015 2014

• Due to our observation found that Khan Chamkarmon and Toul Kor is the leading

area in condominium development follow by Khan Chroy Chang Va and Sen Sok.

Data as of June 2015

Since 1999

CONDOMINIUM (CON’T)

24

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Grade A Grade B Grade C

Project Completed by Grade

2015 2015

Grade A: 22% Increased Grade B: -26% Decreased Grade C: 61% increased Average Percentage Changed 57% (Compared between 2015 and 2014)

Data as of June 2015

Since 1999

CONDOMINIUM (CON’T)

25

$- $500.00 $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00

Selling Price in Sqm for CBD Area

2015 2014 $- $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00 $1,400.00 $1,600.00 $1,800.00 Sen Sok Chroy Chong Var Mean Chey Chbar Ampov Dang Kor

Selling Price in Sqm for Outskirt Area

2015 2014

Data as of June 2015

Average Market Price for Primary Market:

• CBD: Min: $1,200/sqm, Max: $4,100/sqm,

Average $2,400/sqm

• Outskirt: Min $800/sqm, Max: $2,500/sqm,

Average: $1,300/sqm (Compared between 2015 and 2014)

Since 1999

CONDOMINIUM (CON’T)

26

Average Percentage Changed -3%

Data as of June 2015 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2015 2014 2013

Sale Result on Condominium Project

Sale Result Vacant

• Based on the interview with sellers of the projects found that sale result of the project still

remaining good it approximately 69% in 2015 sold out it has been declined around 3% compared to the same period 2014.

• Factor make sale result good:
• Regulation of Cambodia allow foreigner to buy condominium from the fist floor up.
• Low interest and supporting loan from developers and some banks.
• High expectation of advantage from ASEAN Economic Integration for Cambodia.
• Very good on method of payment.

Since 1999

• Regarding to survey found that in average for these 2 years number of

projects increase around 20% per year.

• By number of houses increased in average around 30% for these 2 years.
• The total supply of 2015 is approximately 47,000 houses increased

approximate 15% compare to 2014 approximate 41,000 houses.

27

BOREY

108 Projects 134 Projects 150 Projects

Projects 20 Projects 40 Projects 60 Projects 80 Projects 100 Projects 120 Projects 140 Projects 160 Projects

2013 2014 2015

Number of Borey Projects

27,000 Houses 41,000 Houses 47,000 Houses Houses 10,000 Houses 20,000 Houses 30,000 Houses 40,000 Houses 50,000 Houses

2013 2014 2015

Number of House in Borey Project

Since 1999

BOREY

28 Data as of September 2015

Borey is a type of compound flat or villa which provide good securities and other infrastructures.

• Outskirt city is the most popular to construct Borey.
• Khan Sen Sok and Russey Keo still the leading location for construction

Borey for comparing market supply by location.

• Around 25% construct in Sen Sok and 18% in Russey Keo, 16% in Chbar

Ampov in 2015.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Borey Project Supply by Khan

2015 2014 2013

Since 1999

BOREY (CON’T)

29 Data as of September 2015

2015: 81% Sold Out 2014: 77% Sold Out 2013: 75% Sold Out Average Percentage Changed 5% Increased

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2013 2014 2015

Sale Result on Borey

Sold Out Vacant

Since 1999

LAND MARKET PRICE

30

• In 2014, the land market price in average for the whole year increase approximately

5% to 10% if we compare from quarter to quarter.

• Certainly the land market price in the 1st quarter 2015 approximately increased about

30% for Commercial and 45% for Residential compared to the same period of 2014.

$- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Land Market Price in Phnom Penh for Q1 &Q2 2015

Commercial Residential

Since 1999

LAND MARKET PRICE (CONT’)

31

⁻ In the first quarter 2015 compared to the end of 2014 the land market price approximately increase in average 5% and it seem to be stable in the 2nd quarter 2015 (about 2% to 3% increased).

$- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2014 2015

Land Market Price in Phnom Penh for Q1 &Q2 2015

Commercial Residential

Since 1999 32

Since 1999 33

Since 1999 34

Since 1999 35

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