C o r p o r a t e P r e s e n t a t i o n M a r c h 2 0 1 5 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
C o r p o r a t e P r e s e n t a t i o n M a r c h 2 0 1 5 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
C o r p o r a t e P r e s e n t a t i o n M a r c h 2 0 1 5 Forward-looking statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to Perpetual's business and operations that are based on management's current
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Forward-looking statements
- This presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to Perpetual's business and operations that are based on management's current expectations, estimates
and projections about its business and operations. Words and phrases such as "anticipates," "expects," "believes," "estimates," "projected," "future," "goals," "forecast," "plan," "opportunities," "upside," "will," "impact," "target," "2015 through 2016" and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements pertaining to: Perpetual's business diversification and price risk management strategies which include the transitioning from shallow gas assets to resource-style, growth orientated oil and NGL assets and divestitures to optimize value and decrease debt; projected economics for various projects; future capital expenditure levels; expected compliance with credit facility covenants in 2015 and 2016 the top strategic priorities for 2015 and beyond. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Unless legally required, Perpetual undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
- Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are: inaccuracies in the estimated timing and
amount of future production of natural gas and oil due to numerous factors including permit delays or restrictions, weather, equipment failures, delays or lack of availability, unexpected subsurface or geologic conditions, lack of capital, increases in the costs of rented or contracted equipment, increases in labor costs, volumes of oil or gas greater or lesser than anticipated, and changes in applicable regulations and laws; unexpected problems with wells or other equipment, unexpected changes in
- perating costs and other expenses, including utilities, labor, transportation, well and oil field services, taxes, permit fees, regulatory compliance and other costs of
- peration; decreases in natural gas and oil prices, including price discounts and basis differentials; difficulties in accurately estimating the discovery, volumes, development
potential and replacement of natural gas and oil reserves; the impact of economic conditions on our business operations, financial condition and ability to raise capital; variances in cash flow, liquidity and financial position; a significant reduction in our bank credit facility's borrowing base; availability of funds from the capital markets and under our back credit facility; our level of indebtedness; the ability of financial counterparties to perform or fulfill their obligations under existing agreements; write downs
- f our asset carrying values and oil and gas property impairment; the discovery of previously unknown environmental issues; changes in our business and financial strategy;
inaccuracies in estimating the amount, nature and timing of capital expenditures, including future finding and development costs; the inability to predict the availability and terms of capital; issues with marketing of natural gas and oil including lack of access of markets, changes in pipeline and transportation tariffs and costs, increases in minimum sales quality standards for oil or natural gas, changes in the supply-demand status of gas or oil in a given market area, and the introduction of increased quantities of natural gas or oil into a given area due to new discoveries or new delivery systems; the impact of weather limiting or damaging operations and the occurrence
- f natural disasters such as fires, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes and other catastrophic events and natural disasters; the high-risk nature of drilling and producing natural
gas and oil, including blow-outs, surface caterings, fires, explosions; the competitiveness of alternate energy sources or product substitutes; technological developments; changes in governmental regulation of the natural gas and oil industry potentially leading to increased costs and limited development opportunities; changes in governmental regulation of derivatives; developments in natural gas-producing and oil-producing countries potentially having significant effects on the price of gas and oil; the effects of changed accounting rules under generally accepted accounting principles and IFRS promulgated by rule-setting bodies; the amount of future abandonment and reclamation costs, asset retirement and environmental obligations; expected realization of gas over bitumen royalty adjustments; inability to execute strategic plans and realize projected economics, expectations and objectives for future operations and price risk management strategies; and the other risk factors identified in our most recent financial statements and management's discussion and analysis and Annual Informational Form and our other filings on SEDAR. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed herein also could have material adverse effects on our business and operations and on the forward-looking statements contained herein.
- Also included in this presentation are estimates of Perpetual's consolidated net debt and 2015 funds flow, which are based on the various assumptions as to production
levels, capital expenditures, and other assumptions (including price assumptions for natural gas and oil) and the effects of the West Edson property disposition. To the extent any such estimate constitutes a financial outlook, it was approved by management and the Board of Directors of Perpetual on March 12, 2015 and is included to provide readers with an understanding of Perpetual's anticipated funds flows based on the capital expenditure and other assumptions described herein and readers are cautioned that the information may not be appropriate for other purposes.
Perpetual Energy Inc.
BUILT TO GROW BUILT TO PROSPER BUILT TO LAST
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DIVERSIFIED RESOURCE – STYLE GROWTH – ORIENTED ENTREPRENEURIAL EXPLORER, PRODUCER & MARKETER Common shares o/s 150 million
Management ownership 25% Share price(1) $ 1.12 Trading volume(2) ~68,000 shares/day
Market capitalization $ 168 million Total Net debt(3) $ 330 million
Net bank debt(3) $ 20 million Convertible debentures $ 35 million Senior unsecured notes $ 275 million
Enterprise value $ 498 million
1) 5 day weighted average 2) Thirty day weighted average 3) 2014 year-end
- Conventional Shallow Gas
- Mannville Heavy Oil
- Bitumen
- Warwick Gas Storage
- Viking/Colorado Shallow Shale Gas
Eastern Alberta
- Edson Wilrich
- Multi-Zone Liquids-Rich Gas
- Tight Oil and Gas Exploration
Deep Basin
Production(1) 23,685 boe/d Natural Gas 123 MMcf/d Oil and NGL 2,638 bbl/d P+P Reserves(2) 105.5 MMboe Reserve to Production Ratio (P+P) (RLI)(2) 12 Years Contingent Resource – Bitumen(3) 279 MMbbl Warwick Gas Storage Capacity (gross)(4) 21.5 Bcf
(1) Q4 2014 (2) As evaluated by McDaniel as at Year-End 2014 (Proforma West Edson Sale 81.5 MMboe) (3) Best estimate as evaluated by McDaniel in 2013 (4) 30% ownership interest
Operating profile
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Diversified portfolio – built to prosper
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Spectrum of opportunities to invest through variable commodity cycles
- Mannville
- Mannville
EOR
- Heavy Oil
Exploration
HEAVY OIL
- Edson Wilrich
- Greater Edson
Multi-zone
- Edson
Secondary Zones
- Deep Basin
Exploration
LIQUIDS-RICH GAS
- Eastern
Alberta Conventional
- Viking /
Colorado Shallow Shale Gas
SHALLOW GAS BITUMEN
- Panny
Bluesky
- Liege
Grosmont & Leduc
- Other
OTHER
- Warwick Gas
Storage
- Waskahigan
Duvernay
- GOB Technical
Solutions
- Exploration
Portfolio management strategy 2015
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Entrepreneurial approach to value creation
Invest for growth
- Edson liquids-rich gas
Maximize cash flow
- Conventional shallow gas
- Warwick Gas Storage
- Eastern Alberta heavy oil
Optimize and Advance
- Mannville heavy oil
waterflood and EOR
- Viking/Colorado shale gas
- Waskahigan Duvernay
- Tight oil & gas exploration
- Bitumen
- GOB technical solutions
MEDIUM AND LONG TERM VALUE STRATEGIES PROVEN DIVERSIFYING GROWTH STRATEGIES CASH FLOW GENERATORS
2015 Top Five Strategic Priorities
- 1. Grow Greater Edson Liquids-Rich Gas Production,
Cash Flow, Inventory, Reserves and Value
- 2. Optimize Value of Mannville Heavy Oil
- 3. Maximize Value of Shallow Gas
- 4. Refine Elements of Production Growth Strategy
For 2017 to 2020
- 5. Reduce Debt and Improve Debt/Cash Flow Ratio
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Strategic priorities focus our activities
- 1. Key Priority
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Grow Greater Edson liquids-rich gas production, cash flow, inventory, reserves and value
1-34 Gas Plant Capacity 60 MMcf/d 16-10 Compressor Capacity 30 MMcf/d
Inventory of 180 locations of which 130 gross (104 net) are booked in reserve report Defining optimal spacing through infill well performance may lead to additional inventory
Edson Wilrich liquids–rich gas
Sales Pipeline to Alliance To Rosevear Plant (15% WI) 10-3 Gas Plant Capacity 30 MMcf/d (Q3 2015 start-up) Pipeline To Edson Deep Cut Plant 1 3 2 1 2 3 4
Pre-2014 Horizontal Well 2014 Horizontal Well 2015 Q1 Planned Drill 2015 Q2/Q3 Proposed Well East Edson JV Lands
West Edson Transaction Summary
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Capture upside potential through TOU shares while managing downside risk Swap of West Edson property for 6.75 million Tourmaline Shares
- Market Value of ~$256.5 million
- 24 MMboe of reserves
- 7.2 MMboe (29%) proved and probable developed producing
- 16.8 MMboe undeveloped reserves requiring ~$124.5 million of future development capital over 7-10 years
- 5,750 boe/d of production (95% gas)
- 2015 negative funds flow impact of ~$15 - $20 million
- Closing on or around April 1, 2015
Use of Proceeds
- Systematically manage obligations associated with convertible debentures, bank debt, senior notes etc.
- Fund East Edson development as appropriate
- Advance other high impact opportunities with risk-managed investment
Transaction Rationale
- Swap for exposure to upside potential in West Edson as well as the full TOU portfolio through TOU shares
- Improves liquidity
- Strengthens financial position
- Bolsters ability to manage future debt obligations
- Allows flexibility to fund capital program to capture inherent value in East Edson and other high impact assets
- Expect enhanced lending value for TOU shares relative to West Edson reserves (20% proved producing)
- Improves cost and access to capital to pursue new strategic initiatives
- Enhances ability to manage downside risk in current low commodity price environment
- Neutral to reserve-based NAV discounted at 10%
- Reduces net debt, considering TOU shares as a direct offset
East Edson JV transaction details
Perpetual Commitments
- Drill ~13 wells with $70 million of farm out capital by March 31, 2015-Complete
- Drill additional ~6 wells with $30 million of Producing Royalty sale proceeds prior to December 2015-Complete
- Construct 30 MMcf/d gas plant for September 1, 2015 onstream date (~$30 million)-On Track
- Drill an additional ~6 wells for $30 million prior to December 31, 2022
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Generating $30 to $40 million/year of free funds flow by 2016
Granted two royalties that work in combination to create a fixed, first-out wedge production GORR
- Flat ~5.6 MMcf/d plus associated
liquids of ~100 bbl/d until 2022
- Declining at 10% per year from
Jan 2023 through December 2034
Producing Royalty
- Sale of 50% GORR on July 2014
production
- Proceeds = $50 million
- $30 million in PMT escrow
Drilling Royalty
- Farm-out of undeveloped Wilrich
for $70 million
- Earned and contributed to
escrow at July closing
East Edson JV execution
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D ec 3 1,
17 new JV wells drilled – 13 on production to date Rates curtailed pending new plant commissioning in Q3 2015
- Late time data on all wells is impacted by plant capacity as we drill to fill new plant under
construction and preferentially test new wells
Greater Edson liquids-rich gas play performance
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Liquids-rich gas growth area built from 0 to over >12,000 boe/d in 5 years Infrastructure and inventory in place for continued growth
- 2,000
4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
- 2,000
4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Cumulative Production (MBoe) Boe/d
East Edson West Edson
40% net production growth in 2014
- Driven by West Edson facility expansion from 15
to 30 MMcf/d net
- Ramp up to fill existing East Edson facilities with
JV drilling
- Production growth from JV drilling partially
- ffset by sale of 50% GORR on developed
lands due to timing lag
East Edson to drive growth in 2015
- West Edson swap reduces production by 30
MMcf/d net + associated liquids effective April 1, 2015
- Drill to fill existing East Edson facilities through
16-10 compressor (25 to 30 MMcf/d)
- Construct new 30 MMcf/d East Edson plant and
bring online in Q3 2015 and drill to maintain at capacity
Potential for continued growth in 2016
- Drill to fill existing infrastructure
- East Edson - 55 to 60 MMcf/d (full year effect)
- Potential expansion at East Edson of an
additional 15 to 30 MMcf/d pending optimal development scenario assessment
- 2. Key Priority
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Optimize value of Mannville heavy oil
Eastern Alberta – Conventional heavy oil
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Q4 2014 non-core asset sale focuses activity on full scale waterflood implementation 8 Producing Mannville pools*
- 6 Lloyd, 1 Sparky, 1 Basal Quartz
- > 136 MMbbl Original Oil in Place
- > 6 MMbbl @ 5% recovery factor
- Current Production ~ 2,000 bbl/d
Low cost HZ development
- $1.1 MM single lateral HZ well
- $1.4 MM for multi-lateral HZ well
- Average initial rate ~80 bbl/d
2014 Capital Activity
- 20 gross (17.8 net) wells
- 2 (1.7 net) new pool tests successful (1 Sold)
- Increased injectors to 7 in I2I Pool
- Implemented waterflood in Upper Mannville B pool;
(3 injectors)
- Facilities for scale up of waterflood in 2015
2015 Capital Activity
- $1-2 MM of waterflood expansion
- Additional injection conversions in I2I & B pools
- Initiate injection in new pool
- Source water conversion to supply additional water
- Facility and pipeline expansion
- Drilling deferred due to low oil prices
* Post Q4 2014 non-core disposition
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T49 T50 T51 R8W4 R9 R10
- n
in as il as ce ed il ed il as
- n
Created in AccuMap™ Lan ati
2014 Development 2014 New Pool Development
Mannville
Mannville heavy oil value potential
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Highly profitable at current oil prices
Projected Economics Per Well Lloyd Sparky
Capital (D,C & T) $1.2 MM $1.2 MM NPV @ 10 % $1.6 MM $0.8 MM ROR ~ 200% ~ 95% F&D $13.50 / Boe $20.50 / Boe Payout 0.7 Year 1.2 Year Capital Efficiency ~$15,000/Boe/d ~$25,000/Boe/d Recycle Ratio 3.0 2.7 Oil over shakers while drilling Sparky development pad HZ pad site
Assumptions (McDaniel Year End 2013)
2014 Pricing
$68.90/bbl Wellhead heavy price WTI $US95/bbl, WCS $US23.5/bbl, offset $7.60/bbl
Operating Costs
$6.23/Boe (first year) & $12.60/Boe (lifetime)
Average Well
Lloyd IP 120 bbl/d to 75 bbl/d after year 1 Sparky IP 85 bbl/d to 44 bbl/d after year 1
2P Reserves
90 Mbbl per Lloyd well 60 Mbbl per Sparky well
Royalties
5% for first 18 months on Crown; variable on Freehold
Waterflood and enhanced oil recovery
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Waterflood value created through reduction in primary production decline
Working Interest 66.7% OOIP: 35 MMbbl Cum Prod’n + McDaniel P+P: 1.5 MMbbl
(4.2% recovery) technical recovery
19 Horizontals to date (100-200 m
spacing)
Implementing Waterflood 7 injectors on line end 2014 4 injectors scheduled for 2015 Reservoir simulation and lab work for
waterflood/polymer flood underway
Sparky Mid Type Log 100/09-32-050-08W4/00 6 m OIL PAY
Sparky Mid Sand > 24 % DENSITY POROSITY
Mannville I2I Waterflood Pool
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Oil Rate, m3/d (Gross Production)
Upper Mannville I2I Pool
Estimated Waterflood Production vs. Primary Production
Oil Rate - Waterflood, m3/d Oil Rate - Primary, m3/d
Preliminary waterflood response
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Positive initial waterflood response in two pools with inclining production Mannville I2I North End Wells Group Plot: GOR dropping; Indications of oil increasing Mannville B: Fluid rates increasing; Oil production increasing
Gas Mcf/d Water bbl/d Oil bbl/d
Waterflood and enhanced oil recovery scope
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Large scope for increased reserves and value through waterfloods and possible polymer floods
Select Pools OOIP (MMbbl) Cumulativ e production to YE 2014 (MMbbl) P+P Reserves booked at YE 2014 (MMbbl) Implied Recovery Factor (%) Expected Primary Recovery (5-8% (MMbbl) Potential with Secondary Recovery and EOR (10-15%) (MMbbl)
Sparky I2I(2) 35 0.6 0.8 4.0% 1.8 – 2.8 3.5 – 5.3 Upper Mannville A 60 2.0 1.9 6.5% 3.0 – 4.8 6.0 – 9.0 Upper Mannville B 17 0.4 0.4 5.0% 0.8 – 1.3 1.7 – 2.5 Upper Mannville T8T 10 0.1 0.6 7.3% 0.5 – 0.8 1.0 – 1.4 Total 121 3.1 3.7 5.6% 6.1 – 9.7 12.1 - 18.2
5.0 X
Mannville heavy oil play performance
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Investment recovered and free cash flow exceeding capital spending Transitioned from growth to value in 2014
- Drilling capital reduced
- Rationalized smaller
pools
- Investing in facilities for
waterflood
Significant value to be created through waterflood & EOR
- Full scale waterflood
implementation in 2015
- Initial production loss
due to conversion of producers to injectors
- Forecast waterflood
response in late 2015
- Scoping polymer flood
costs and potential
1) 2014E capital offset by $21.6 MM in disposition proceeds; disposition production highlighted in red
(1)
- $20
$30 $80 $130 $180 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Cumulative Capital ($MM) Capital ($MM)
- 1,000
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
- 1,000
2,000 3,000 4,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Cumulative Production (MBoe) Production (Boe/d) $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Cumulative Cash Flow ($MM) Operating Cash Flow ($MM)
- 3. Key Priority
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Maximize value of shallow gas
Conventional shallow gas
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Invested $11 MM in 2014 to hold production to < 5% decline Production addition cost of <$10,000 per flowing boe/d (first 12 months)
Belly River Viking Grand Rapids Lower Mannville Pre Cretaceous Unconformity
Legacy asset base characteristics
East Central and Northeast Alberta Cretaceous and Devonian sweet shallow gas < 800m Current production: ~ 60 - 65 MMcf/d Base declines < 15% Multiple stacked zones and play types Extensive plant and pipeline infrastructure with
material unutilized capacity
Low base royalty rate of ~ 5% at <$5/Mcf High fixed operating costs driven by municipal taxes
and large number of low volume wells
Netbacks highly leveraged to natural gas prices
Operational Focus
Facility optimization projects, workovers and uphole
recompletions payout in months
- Low cost production and reserves adds
(<$10,000/boe/d; <$1.00/Mcf)
Fixed operating cost reductions
- Metering, municipal taxes
Prospecting for tight reservoirs in high resource
potential traps that now can be exploited with horizontal wells and multi-stage frac technologies
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Viking/Colorado shallow shale gas
Belly River Play Fairway Cardium/ Colorado Wells Perpetual Lands Historical Viking Reserves Proved Undeveloped Probable Undeveloped Reserves Proven Non-Producing Prospect Inventory 5 Yr
>130 TCF Resource In Place
OGIP estimated average 16 Bcf/section 300m gas saturated shale section
6 prospective zones
Viking
- Booked reserves
12 Bcf PNP booked in recompletions Historical 2P reserves of 100+ Bcf removed
from bookings due to price revisions
Proven development and capital
commitment could drive substantial future bookings
Colorado Group
- > 1 TCF potential recoverable resource
Average 435 MMcf / well gross HZ development at ~8+ wells / section
- Over 1,200 net prospective sections
- Extensive plant and pipeline infrastructure
- Develop Colorado with Viking and
Mannville sands to reduce costs and enhance economics
Targeting 2016 Development
- Refining frac technology
- Monitoring competitor performance and
costs to define economics
- 4. Key Priority
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Refine Elements of Production Growth Strategy For 2017 to 2020
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Future production growth potential
Inventory captured and risk assessment on track for future production growth Growth trajectory depends on commodity prices, capital and play performance
SWAP for TOU SHARES shifts baseline for production growth
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Bitumen
527 net sections (329,000
net acres) of oil sand leases
Various formation targets
and ultimate recovery methods
7 potential project areas
with varying potential
Over 3 billion bbls OBIP
independently recognized at Liege and Panny
278 MMbbl contingent
resource
467 MMbbl additional
prospective resource
Perpetual OS Leases Fireflood Projects CSS Projects Primary Projects Oil Pipelines SAGD Projects Electric Heaters
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Bitumen – Panny Bluesky
Excellent reservoir quality in Bluesky homogeneous shoreface sand facies
Vertical Wells Existing Horizontal Well
8 m Bitumen 10 m Bitumen Roads Natural Gas Pipeline Oil Well Effluent Pipeline Perpetual Gas Plant Perpetual Oil Sands Rights Other Perpetual Lands
Low rate cold flow without solvent or thermal assistance Average pay thickness 11 m Low viscosity bitumen
- ~15,000 cp at 25oC
- 50,000 cp at 11oC reservoir temp
- Highly mobile at ~70oC
Panny Bluesky Resource Assessment (McDaniel P50)
- 755 MMbbl Discovered OBIP
- 132 MMbbl Contingent Resource
- 17.5% recovery factor applied
utilizing horizontal cyclic steam Resource to support >15,000 bbl/d commercial project for 20 to 25 years LEAD Technology pilot proceeding
- Electric heat with water and/or
solvent
- ERCB application approved
- IETP funding in place
- 30% capped at $5.5 million
- Phase 1 cyclic heat stimulation test
initiated in 2015
LEAD process technology pilot Low pressure electro-thermally assisted drive
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Electrical heating cable with water injection for mobility and pressure support
First stage of pilot planned for 2015 – Cyclic Heat Stimulation
$3-5 million capital net of 30% IETP funding Evaluating heater technology and validating reservoir model
Second stage of pilot an additional $20 to $30 million
Guided by first stage learnings 2017 potential start-up
Initial 10,000 to 15,000 bbl/d development by 2019 if pilot successful
Drilling-intensive technology allows for scalability without large upfront capital commitment of steam projects Modelled recovery factor is >50%, encouraging increasing scope for commercial project
Top Gas
Heaters / Injectors
Oil
Producer
Pilot Project Configuration
- 5. Key priority
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Reduce Debt and Improve Debt/Cash Flow Ratio
Transactions Closed in 2014 West Central AB undeveloped land $ 3 million Gas over bitumen monetization $ 23.2 million Mannville non-core $ 21.6 million East Edson JV net proceeds $ 120 million
- Producing royalty sale $ 50 million
- Drilling royalty farm-in $ 70 million
2014 Summary Total disposition proceeds $ 97.8 million JV Partner Funds Received $ 70 million Total proceeds $ 167.8 million Proceeds for debt reduction $ 67.8 million Proceeds dedicated to JV spending $ 100 million
Debt reduction
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Targeting additional asset sales for further debt reduction
Balance sheet
Net Bank Debt: $20 million(1)
- Borrowing base on credit facility - $105 million
- Next semi-annual redetermination – April 2015
- $3 million of restricted cash remaining in escrow for East Edson JV
Senior Unsecured Notes: $275 million
- 7 year Notes issued March 2011
- Coupon rate - 8.75%; Maturity date - March 2018
- New $125 million 5 year Notes issue closed in July 2014
- Coupon rate - 8.75%; Maturity date - July 2019
Convertible Debentures: $35 million
- Redeemed $25 million in cash on Dec 31, 2014
- Repayable in cash or equity at Perpetual’s discretion at par on or after December 31, 2014
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Over 80% of debt has term into 2018 Total Net Debt: $332 million at December 31, 2014 Market value of 6.75 million TOU shares ~$256.5 million
TSX Symbol Amount Outstanding Coupon Rate Conversion Price Maturity Date 5 Day Weighted
- Avg. Trading
Price PMT.DB.D $99.9 million 7.25% $7.50 January 31, 2015 $100.50 PMT.DB.E $35.0 million 7.00% $7.00 December 31, 2015 $100.10
REPAID AUGUST 26, 2014
(1) Year-end 2014
2014 Capital spending
- 2014 Exploration and Development Capital = $116 million
- $68 million of further capital spending funded by JV Partner escrow
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2014 Capital focused on proven diversifying plays
Q1 - Q3 2014 Wells Capital Q4 2014 Wells Capital Total Wells Capital West Central Liquids-Rich Gas
(1)
13 gross (6.6 net) $ 62 MM 4 gross (2.5 net) $ 17 MM 17 gross (9.1 net) $ 79 MM
East Edson JV
(2)
4 gross (4.0 net) $ 19 MM 10 gross (10.0 net) $ 50 MM 13 gross (13.0 net) $ 69 MM
Mannville Heavy Oil
20 gross (17.8 net) $ 23 MM $ 3 MM 20 gross (17.8 net) $ 26 MM
Eastern Shallow Gas and Other
Recompletions/ Workovers/ Optimization $ 5 MM $ 5 MM $ 10 MM
Total
$ 109 MM $ 75 MM $ 184 MM 1) Excludes Perpetual operated spending funded by East Edson JV partner escrow funds but includes PMT escrow funded activity 2) East Edson JV Partner funded activity only
2015 Capital spending
- 2015 Q1 capital spending of $45 million
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Spending for remainder of 2015 will be finalized after Q1 with a view to increased certainty of commodity prices and funds flow
Q1 2015 Wells Capital West Central Liquids-Rich Gas
(1)
7 gross (5 net) $ 42 MM
Mannville Heavy Oil
Waterflood facilities $ 1 MM
Eastern Shallow Gas and Other
Recompletions/ Workovers/ Optimization $ 1 MM
Panny Pilot
2 gross (2.0 net) $ 1 MM
Total
$ 45 MM 1) Includes PMT escrow funded activity of ~$3 million but excludes $1 MM of remaining JV partner escrow funded activity 2) Excludes abandonment and reclamation spending of ~$3 million
- Full year capital budget to be determined in Q2 pending commodity prices
- Estimate another $10 to $40 million for remainder of year
Investment Thesis
Reserve distribution
35
Reserve growth in higher value diversifying assets
Sum of the parts
36
Trading at <half of reserve-based net asset value
Key investment highlights
High Quality Assets
Asset base repositioning for resource-style and diversification successful
Edson Wilrich liquids-rich gas inventory well-defined
Mannville heavy oil delivering diversified cash flow with material secondary recovery potential
Prospects for short and long term growth from resource-style plays
Increasing percentage of higher netback production in asset mix Exposed to TOU asset base through West Edson swap for shares
Track Record of Operational Performance
Execution and operational excellence in chosen strategies
Funded to Execute
80% of debt has term into 2018 and beyond
Multiple ‘levers’ available to manage remaining PMT.DB.E convertible debenture maturity in 2015
Pursuing further asset dispositions to continue to reduce outright debt leverage
Liquidity to execute capital plan
Value
Trading significantly below ‘Reserve-Based’ Net Asset Value High impact value potential from medium to long term assets Tremendous leverage to any gas price cycle recovery in 2015 and beyond 37
Spectrum of opportunities to grow and prosper
Additional Information
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Susan L. Riddell Rose President & CEO Cameron R. Sebastian Vice President, Finance & CFO 3200, 605 – 5 Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta Canada T2P 3H5 800.811.5522 TOLL FREE 403.269.4400 PHONE 403.269.4444 FAX info@perpetualenergy.com EMAIL
WWW.PERPETUALENERGYINC.COM
39
Important information about the presentation
Non-GAAP Measures
This presentation contains financial measures that may not be calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). Readers are referred to advisories and further discussion on non-GAAP measures contained in the "Non-GAAP Measures" section of our most recent management's discussion and analysis.
IP rates
Initial production or IP rates contained in this presentation are based the length of the specific production tests disclosed herein and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance
- r ultimate recovery. Initial production rates disclosed herein are based on 3 days of initial production and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery.
Financial Outlooks
Included in this presentation are estimates of Perpetual's future cash flow and debt levels, which are based on the various assumptions as to production levels, capital expenditures, commodity prices and other assumptions disclosed in this presentation. To the extent such estimates constitute a financial outlook, they were approved by management of Perpetual in July 2014 and are included to provide readers with an understanding of Perpetual's anticipated financial position and readers are cautioned that the information may not be appropriate for
- ther purposes.
Reserves, Resource and F&D Disclosure
Unless as otherwise noted, reserves and resource information included in this presentation is based on independent evaluations prepared by McDaniel and Associates Consultants Ltd. in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 ("NI 51-101") using McDaniel's forecast prices and costs. All of Perpetual's contingent resources currently have an "undetermined" economic status as sub-classification into economic and uneconomic categories has not been evaluated. Contingencies affecting the classification of the resources include corporate development plans, the need for regulatory approval, and the need to perform an economic study regarding production. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources. Please refer to "Notes Pertaining to the Reporting of Bitumen Contingent Resource" in Perpetual's Annual Information Form dated March 7, 2014 for applicable definitions and risk factors pertaining to Perpetual's reserve and resource disclosure. Perpetual's F&D costs are disclosed under the heading "Finding and Development Costs" in Perpetual's February 4, 2014 press release. Please refer to this press release for additional disclosure pertaining to Perpetual's F&D costs. The aggregate of exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and the change in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year.
Projected Economics
This presentation includes estimates of projected economics or value potential for Perpetual's Mannville heavy oil and West Edson Wilrich liquids rich gas assets. Estimates of "projected capital", "NPV@8 and 10%", "ROR", "F&D", "capital efficiency" and "recycle ratio" are provided in respect of these assets. These terms referenced in this presentation are estimates by Perpetual of future results based on the indicated assumptions and are by their nature projections which are different than terms calculated in accordance with NI 51-101, which are historical calculations. These estimates have been provided as Perpetual believes they provide a reasonable estimate of the future economics of Perpetual's Mannville heavy oil and West Edson Wilrich liquids rich gas value. These terms do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by NI 51-101, the COGE Handbook or CSA Notice 51-324 and therefore these measures, as defined by Perpetual, may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. These estimate constitute forward-looking information and therefore reflects several material factors, expectations and assumptions and is subject to a number of risk factors. See "Forward-Looking Information" above for further information.
Mcf equivalent (Mcfe)
Mcf equivalent (Mcfe) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. In accordance with NI 51-101 a Mcfe conversion ratio for oil of 1 Bbl: 6 Mcf has been used, which is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not necessarily represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. As the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
Net Asset Value
In relation to the disclosure of net asset value ("NAV") in this presentation, the NAV presented herein is what is normally referred to as a "produce-out" NAV calculation under which the current value of Perpetual's reserves would be produced at forecast future prices and costs and do not necessarily represent a "going concern" value of our company. The value is a snapshot in time and is based on various assumptions including commodity prices and foreign exchange rates that vary over time. It should not be assumed that the NAV represents the fair market value of Perpetual.
Appendix
East Edson type curves
41
Recent drills on average exceed McDaniel typecurves
East Edson – NE Type Curve*
- DC&T $5.45 MM
- IP 3.6 MMcf/d
- 19 bbl/MMcf NGL
- Reserves 2.4 Bcfe sales/well
- NPV10 $0.7 MM ($3.4 MM Jan 1, 2014)
- ROR 15% (ROR 50% Jan 1, 2014)
- 31 (25.4 Net) P+PUDs booked
- 1 additional prospect inventory
East Edson – SW Type Curve*
- DC&T $5.55 MM
- IP 5.5 MMcf/d
- 13.5 bbl/MMcf NGL
- Reserves 3.2 Bcfe sales/well
- NPV10 $2.5 MM ($5.0 MM Jan 1, 2014)
- ROR 28% (ROR 50% Jan 1, 2014)
- 63 (60.5 Net) P+PUDs booked
- 7 additional in prospect inventory
*McDaniel Jan 1, 2015 reserves and pricing
West Edson type curve
42
West Edson Type Curve*
- DC&T $6.5 MM
- IP 9.0 MMcf/d
- 5.25 bbl/MMcf C5+
- Reserves 5.5 Bcfe sales/well
- NPV10 $8.7 MM ($10.7 MM Jan 1, 2014)
- ROR 95% (ROR 168% Jan 1, 2014)
- 37 (18.5 Net) P+PUDs booked
- 44 additional in prospect inventory
West Edson new drills highly economic even at 2015 McDaniel price decks
*McDaniel Jan 1, 2015 reserves and pricing
Diversification – Warwick Gas Storage
43
Non-depleting, long life, diversifying asset Cash flow growth potential when spreads normalize to historical levels
- 40 Bcf Storage Reservoir
- Delta Pressure to 47 Bcf
- 10 Bcf base reserves cushion gas
in place
- Up to 25 Bcf potential working
gas capacity
- 1.2 to 1.5 cycle facility
WGSI Leases Well Site Pad Storage Facility Pipeline Horizontal Wells 2012 Hz Wells TCPL Pipeline Commercial ‘Park and Loan’
business
30 to 50 year life Grass Roots Development
Existing depleted gas pool Facility Construction 2010
19 - 21.5 Bcf working gas capacity Expansion Potential
Delta pressuring to increase working gas to
24.5 Bcf with minimal incremental costs
30% Perpetual Interest Manage WGS LP for annual fee Diversified Cash Flow
2012 & 2013 ~$11 million/year gross
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Bitumen – Liege carbonates
Excellent reservoir quality vuggy porosity in Grosmont Shell AOC Husky Laricina / Osum
3 Grosmont carbonate / Leduc OV wells drilled Combined with legacy gas wells to evaluate and
map resource
Stacking of 3 Grosmont units > 30 m pay Leduc reef facies also present and bitumen
saturated in places; geologically complex
Resource Assessment (McDaniel best estimate) 2,327 MMbbl bitumen in place
(Undiscovered plus discovered)
132 MMbbl Contingent Resource assigned 449 MMbbl Prospective Resource assigned 25% recovery factor applied using SAGD as
‘technology under development’
Commodity price risk management strategy
45
Protecting further destruction of 2015 funds flow is a top priority
Enhance or protect funds flow and balance sheet Enhance or protect the economics of an acquisition Enhance or protect capital program economics Capitalize on perceived market anomalies
- $20
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hedging Gain/Loss ($MM) Hedging Gain Options Premium
Commodity price risk management
46
2015 oil prices for 1,000 bbl/d at $87.50 Cdn floor Gas price management contracts to manage downside risk in summer 2015
Type of Contract Term Volumes (GJ/d) Fixed Price ($/GJ) Futures Price(1) ($/GJ) % of 2015 Natural Gas Production(2)
AECO Fixed Price Financial Apr-June 2015 92,500 $2.57 $2.53 74% AECO Fixed Price Financial July - Oct 2015 82,500 $2.56 $2.61 60% AECO Fixed Price Financial Nov - Dec 2015 7,500 $2.78 $2.90 5%
1) March 4, 2015 AECO forward prices 2) Calculated using 2015 estimated actual and deemed gas production of 124 MMcf/d and average heat content of 1.12 GJ/Mcf
Type of Contract Term Volumes (bbl/d) Fixed or Floor Price ($/bbl) Ceiling Price ($/bbl) Futures Price(1) ($/bbl) % of 2015 Oil & NGL Production(2)
WTI collars Apr- Dec 2015 1,000 CAD $87.50 CAD $95.50 CAD $71.85 37% WTI-WCS Differential Apr- Dec 2015 1,000 US ($16.88)
- US $(14.82)
37% WTI Knockout Cal 2016 1,500 US $95.40 US $104.25 US $62.82 56%
1) March 4, 2015 forward prices 2) Calculated using 2015 estimated oil and NGL production of 2,700 bbl/d
Projected 2015 funds flow
47
1) The current settled and forward average AECO and WTI prices for 2015 as of March 4, 2015 were $2.69 per GJ and US $55.69 per bbl
- 2014 Production of 20,554 boe/d
- 20,100 boe/d net of East Edson JV Royalty
- East Edson JV GORR reported as royalty expense, reducing netback
- 2015 Production of ~23,000 boe/d (19,000 boe/d proforma West
Edson transaction)
2015 Cash Flow ($ MM)
AECO (Cdn$/GJ)
2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 45.00 4.7 13.8 22.9 32.1 41.2 50.00 6.8 15.9 25.1 34.2 43.3 55.00 8.9 18.0 27.2 36.3 45.4 60.00 11.0 20.1 29.3 38.4 47.5 65.00 13.1 22.2 31.4 40.5 49.6
WTI (US$/Bbl)
- West Edson swap for TOU shares reduces 2015 funds flow by $15 - $20 MM
PDP 2PDP PNP/PUD PbNP/PbUD PDP 2PDP PNP/PUD PbNP/PbUD PbNP PNP/PUD PDP 2PDP
P+P Reserve distribution Year-End 2014
48
Mannville Deep Basin Eastern Shallow Gas
Total: 105.5 MMboe
Over 70% of reserves in West Central Alberta deep basin
P+P Reserve distribution Year-End 2014
49
Mannville Deep Basin Eastern Shallow Gas
PDP 2PDP PDP 2PDP PNP/PUD PbNP/PbUD PNP/PUD PbNP/Pbud PDP 2PDP
Total: $685 Million
Close to 50% developed producing reserves by value
FD&A and Reserve growth
50 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 AAV ERF PMT BNP DEE TOU BIR CR JOY YGR PEY KEL MQL CKE ARX QEC CJ SGY WCP TET LTS AEI PGF BNE RRX SOG
2P FD&A ($/Boe)
- 60%
- 40%
- 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% DEE YGR PMT PNE QEC KEL RRX TOU TET CJ SGY BIR PGF WCP PEY CR ERF AAV ARX BNE BNP AEI CLL PXX CKE MQL ZAR LTS SOG
2P Reserves Growth/Share (Boe/share)
Future growth and value creation 2016 - 2020
51
Longer term plans in motion for future growth through diversified portfolio
Mannville waterflood expansion Mannville polymer flood implementation New pool exploration
HEAVY OIL
Edson expansion for additional inventory development
East Edson additional downspacing Development of secondary targets including Belly River, Cardium, Second White
Specks, Viking, Notikewin, Fahler, Rock Creek, Blueridge & Duvernay Deep Basin Exploration
Waskahigan Duvernay, Columbia Fahler & Cardium, Other
LIQUIDS-RICH GAS
Optimize conventional assets with high capital efficiency production adds Viking/Colorado and tight gas growth to backfill shallow gas declines
Full scale development for growth to utilize extensive infrastructure network and