Building a Grad Nation: Progress and Challenge in Ending the High - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Building a Grad Nation:

Progress and Challenge in Ending the High School Dropout Epidemic 2012 Update

CIVIC ENTERPRISES

Lead Sponsor Supporting Sponsor A report by

“We need to educate our way to a better economy.” Arne Duncan U.S. Secretary of Education “In the long term... the best way by far to improve economic

• pportunity and to reduce inequality is to increase the educational

attainment and skills of American workers.” Ben S. Bernanke Chairman, Federal Reserve

Education and the Economy

What’s at Stake?

• Workforce of future demands more education
• In 1973, 72% of 91 million workers required high school or less
• By 2018, only 36% of jobs for workers with high school or less
• By 2020, 75% of U.S. workforce will be high & middle-skilled
• 53% of business leaders at large companies and 67% at small companies say it is difficult

to recruit qualified employees in the U.S., despite unemployment at over 8%

• Savings to taxpayers
• Moving just one dropout to graduate status yields more than $200,000 in higher

tax revenues and lower government expenditures over his/her lifetime

• Graduating half of one class of dropouts would save U.S. taxpayers $45 billion in that

year

Civic Marshall Plan of Action

National Goals 1.90% high school graduation rate by 2020

• Cohort approach: Class of 2020 – today’s 4th graders
• Target “Dropout factory” high schools and feeder schools
• Data-driven, research-based interventions
• “Big Institutional Plays”

2.Highest college attainment rates in the world

• Double attainment rates to 6 in 10, up from 3 in 10 today

PROGRESS

• Nation’s high school graduation rate increased from 72% to 75.5% from

2001 to 2009; half a point from 75% to 75.5% from 2008 to 2009

• Wisconsin -- first state to achieve 90% goal and Vermont 0.4 shy at 89.6%

CHALLENGE

• If rate of progress from first decade of 21st Century continues during the

second, nation’ s graduation rate will be closer to 80% than 90%

• Need to accelerate progress three-fold – from 0.4 percentage points per year
• ver the last decade to 1.3 percentage points

The Latest Graduation Rate Data

10 Research-based Benchmarks

Elementary and Middle School (2012-2016)

1.

Grade level reading

2.

Chronic absenteeism

3.

Early warning systems

4.

Middle grades redesign

5.

Adult/peer tutors and mentors

High School (2017-2020)

6.

Transition supports

7.

Dropout factories

8.

Compulsory school age, coupled with supports

9.

Pathways to college and career

• 10. Dropout recovery

Civic Marshall Plan of Action

Substantially increase number of students reading with proficiency by 4th grade

Progress

• From 2000 to 2011, percent of America’s 4th-graders scoring at or above proficient in

reading increased from 29 percent in 2000 to 34 percent in 2011

• Major initiatives: the Campaign for Grade-level Reading

Challenge

• More than 65 percent of 4th-graders continue to score below proficiency in reading.

Civic Marshall Plan Benchmarks

Establish early warning systems (EWS) that track predictors of potential dropout

Progress

• EWS have grown from powerful idea into high-

priority reform effort

• 1/3 of states have all of the information

needed in state longitudinal data systems

• Successes: Big Brothers Big Sisters of Eastern

Missouri and Cape Girardeau Public Schools Challenge

• Next step is scale
• 16 states have no plans or no date set for

EWS; of those 16 that report using, only 4 report distributing to educators on a regular basis

Raise compulsory school attendance age, coupled with comprehensive supports

Progress

• 63% of states with graduation rates above national average have school age law of 17 or 18
• 12 states have recently updated their laws to 17 or 18
• Some states have followed National Conference of State Legislatures recommendations,

linking compulsory school age law with enforcement—suspending drivers licenses

• President Obama’s 2012 State of the Union

Challenge

• 18 states still permit students to drop out at 16 even though high school diploma

and some college needed for most jobs and research shows raising age contains dropouts

• Legislation introduced in majority of these 18 states

Civic Marshall Plan Benchmarks

Progress

• White House Council for Community

Solutions issued Economic Case, Opportunity Road, and Employer Toolkit to help reconnect youth to school & work

• Significant efforts underway: YouthBuild, YearUp,

Transfer Schools in NYC, and Youth Connection Charter Schools in Chicago. Challenge

• One in six, or 6.7 million of the 38.9 million youth

ages 16-24, are disconnected from school and work. They cost taxpayers $1.6 trillion and society $4.7 trillion over their lifetimes.

New Plank: Support comprehensive dropout recovery programs for disconnected youth

How to Achieve 90% High School Graduation Rate by 2020?

What the Most Recent Data Tell Us

Fewer Dropout Factories

Total Number of Dropout Factories Class of 2002 2,007 Class of 2008 1,746 Class of 2009 1,634 Class of 2010 1,550

Number of Dropout Factories: 2020 Projections

at Current Rate of Progress

Number of dropout factory high schools and students attending them declines at an accelerating rate -- but much work remains

• There were 457 fewer dropout factory high schools in 2010 (1550) than 2002 (2007),

a 23 percent decline, particularly within suburbs and towns and in the South

• During this period, 790,000 fewer students attended dropout factory high schools
• The rate of decline was significantly faster between 2008 and 2010 than it was

between 2002 and 2008 in the number of dropout factories and the number of students attending them, primarily in cities

Progress is Accelerating

Progress Challenge

Change in Graduation Rates, 2002 – 2009

Half the states move forward. Half do not.

Number of Additional Graduates in 2009 National 116,706 Leading States New York 31,978 Tennessee 13,880 Florida 12,242 Georgia 8,696 North Carolina 7,969 Texas 6,657 South Carolina 4,801 Missouri 4,775 Alabama 4,693 Massachusetts 4,468 Wisconsin 4,253 Kentucky 4,205 Sub-Total 12 Leading States 108,617

Progress: Driven by Twelve States

Number of Fewer Graduates in 2009 National 116,706 Lagging States California

• 8913

Nevada

• 5512

Connecticut

• 1994

Arizona

• 1892

New Mexico

• 720

New Jersey

• 557

Utah

• 422

Arkansas

• 303

Nebraska

• 235

Rhode Island

• 53

Sub-Total 10 Lagging States

• 20,601

10 States Went the Wrong Direction

Needs to move <2,000 students Needs to move >5,000 students Needs <1% point improvement Near and Few

Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota

Near and Many

Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio

Needs >1% improvement Far and Few

Rhode Island, Wyoming

Far and Many

Arkansas, Arizona, Connecticut, California, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Virginia, Washington

Role Models

Alaska, Delaware, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Vermont Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin

Analyzing States Not Making Progress

Conclusion

• The battle to meet the national high school graduation rate goal will

be won or lost in 13 states. These states:

• have not made much progress
• have large numbers of students to get back on track to graduate
• need to improve their graduation rate by a percentage point or more per

year Arizona Arkansas Connecticut California Illinois Indiana Michigan Mississippi Nevada New Mexico Oklahoma Virginia Washington

Civic Marshall Plan State Indices Where does your state stand?

• Child Poverty Rate
• Reading and Math Proficiency
• Graduation Rate
• Dropout Factories Numbers
• College Completion Rates
• Economic Benefits

• 1. Use Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate (ACGR) to target efforts
• 2. Invest strategically in highest return efforts along graduation pipeline
• 3. Use No Child Left Behind (NCLB) waivers to target attention and resources
• 4. Raise the compulsory school age
• 5. Learn from successful models like TN and NY
• 6. Conduct a policy audit to ensure policies support graduation for all
• 7. Use longitudinal data to understand and meet school/student needs
• 8. Implement early warning systems
• 9. Measure and report on chronic absenteeism
• 10. Develop a state Civic Marshall Plan

Civic Marshall Plan 10-point State Strategy

Civic Marshall Plan Leadership Council

Policy Makers, Educators, Community Leaders, Businesses, Foundations

Alliance for Excellent Education America’s Promise Alliance American Association of School Administrators American Federation of Teachers AT&T Big Brothers Big Sisters of America Boys & Girls Clubs of America City Year Civic Enterprises College Board Communities in Schools Corporation for Public Broadcasting Council of Chief State School Officers Data Quality Campaign Deloitte Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins Forum for Youth Investment Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation George W. Bush Institute Jobs for America’s Graduates Jobs for the Future National 4-H Council National Association of Secondary School Principals National Association of State Boards of Education National Conference of State Legislatures National Council of La Raza National Education Association National Governors Association National Parent Teacher Association National School Boards Association National Urban League Pearson Foundation Public Education Network Rural School and Community Trust State Farm United Way Worldwide Voices for National Service YMCA of the USA Youth Impact Network, America’s Promise Alliance

Corporation for Public Broadcasting; American Graduate: Let’s Make It Happen! Pat Harrison, President & CEO, Corporation for Public Broadcasting

2012 Signature Examples of Big Institutional Plays

2012 Signature Examples of Big Institutional Plays

Big Brothers Big Sisters of America and United Way Worldwide Nina Sazer O’Donnell, Vice President for Education, United Way Worldwide and Max Miller, Co-CEO, Big Brothers Big Sisters of America

2012 Signature Examples of Big Institutional Plays

AT&T: Aspire Beth Adcock Shiroishi, President, AT&T Foundation