Budget Forecasting and Simulation Presented to: River Valley School - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Budget Forecasting and Simulation

Presented to:

River Valley School District

December 8, 2016

A powerful financial planning tool that can be used for:

• 1. Development of a multi-year financial plan
• 2. Scenario comparisons and “what-if” analysis
• 3. Detailed budget and performance analysis
• 4. Budget preparation and upload to accounting system
• 5. Budget distribution and stakeholder reporting

Data Elements

• General Ledger data from FY12 through FY17
• Projections are based off of FY17 General Ledger
• Calculators are used for
• Enrollment and Membership
• General State Aid, Revenue limit, and Tax Levy
• Salaries and Benefits
• All other assumptions are based on percentage increases over

the current budget amount and may include one-time and recurring adjustments entered by the district

• All assumptions are determined by the district

Resident In-District

• Projected using the 5-year cohort survival method
• APL (Applied Population Laboratory) projections used for

incoming 4K and 5K class sizes

• Projected to decrease by 125 students over the next 5 years
• APL projects a 133 student decrease over the next 5 years

Resident Open Enrollment

• Projected to remain level with current year (97 students)

Non-Resident Open Enrollment

• Projected to remain level with current year (50 students)

Enrollment and Membership

Revenues

Revenue growth is primarily a function of student enrollment and per pupil revenue limit increases established annually by the State

• Per Pupil Revenue Limit Increase - $0 for FY17, $0 for subsequent years
• Per Pupil Categorical Aid – Decrease from $250 to $150 in FY18 and remains at $150

in subsequent years Equalized assessed valuation

• FY17

+2.12% actual

• FY18-22

+2.27% State valuation increased by 2.27% and is projected to grow at the same rate as the district in subsequent years

Expenditures

Salaries

• Salaries - 2.5%
• Plus $40K/year for credit advancement
• Staffing - Remains flat, no change

Benefits

• Health Insurance – Increase capped at 5.0% per year (District’s cost)
• Dental Insurance – Increase capped at 2.5% per year (District’s cost)

Costs controllable by the District are projected to remain at current spending levels. Utilities are projected to increase by 2.0% per year Purchased transportation is projected to increase by 2.0% per year District Insurance (Liability, Property etc.) projected to increase by 2.0% per year

Observations and Additional Considerations

• FY17 mill rate decrease is due to a combination of two key variables:
• 1. FY16 levy ($675K) includes the last Fund 39 debt service payment
• 2. FY17 and FY18 levy includes $600K Energy Efficiency Exemption, does

not carryforward to FY19

Observations and Additional Considerations (continued)

• Tonight’s projections are a “starting point” to the budgeting and planning

process.

• Collaboration and consensus on assumptions is an important part of the

process