Brookfield Renewable Partners
Investor Meeting September 29, 2016
Brookfield Renewable Partners Investor Meeting September 29, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Brookfield Renewable Partners Investor Meeting September 29, 2016 CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information, within the meaning of Canadian securities laws and
Brookfield Renewable Partners
Investor Meeting September 29, 2016
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information, within the meaning of Canadian securities laws and “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, “safe harbor” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and in any applicable Canadian securities regulations, concerning the business and operations of BEP. Forward-looking statements may include estimates, plans, expectations, opinions, forecasts, projections, guidance or other statements that are not statements of fact. Forward-looking statements in this presentation include statements regarding BEP’s investment strategy, the quality of BEP’s assets and the quality and resiliency of the cash flow they will generate, BEP’s anticipated financial performance, future construction of assets, contracted portfolio, technology diversification, acquisition opportunities, expected completion of acquisitions, future energy prices and demand for electricity, economic recovery, achieving long-term average generation, project development and capital expenditure costs, energy policies, economic growth, growth potential of the renewable asset class, the future growth prospects and distribution profile of BEP and BEP’s access to capital. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “plans”, “expects”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “potentially”, “tends”, “continue”, “attempts”, “likely”, “primarily”, “approximately”, “endeavours”, “pursues”, “strives”, “seeks”, “targets”, or variations of such words and phrases, or statements that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “should”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved. Although we believe that our anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements and information in this presentation are based upon reasonable assumptions and expectations, we cannot assure you that such expectations will prove to have been correct. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and information as such statements and information involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievement expressed or implied by such forward- looking statements and information. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated or implied by forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the following: we are not subject to the same disclosure requirements as a U.S. domestic issuer, the separation of economic interest from control; the incurrence of debt at multiple levels within our organizational structure; being deemed an “investment company” under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940; the effectiveness of our internal controls over financial reporting; changes to hydrology at our hydroelectric stations, to wind conditions at our wind energy facilities or to crop supply or weather generally at any biomass cogeneration facility; counterparties to our contracts not fulfilling their obligations; increases in water rental costs (or similar fees) or changes to the regulation of water supply; volatility in supply and demand in the energy market; the increasing amount of uncontracted generation in our portfolio; industry risks relating to the power markets in which we operate; increased regulation of
inability to maintain, governmental permits; equipment failures; dam failures and the costs of repairing such failures; force majeure events; uninsurable losses; adverse changes in currency exchange rates; availability and access to interconnection facilities and transmission systems; health, safety, security and environmental risks; disputes, governmental and regulatory investigations and litigation; our operations being affected by local communities; fraud, bribery, corruption, other illegal acts or inadequate or failed internal processes or systems designed to prevent such acts; our reliance on computerized business systems; advances in technology that impair or eliminate the competitive advantage of our projects; newly developed technologies in which we invest not performing as anticipated; labour disruptions and economically unfavourable collective bargaining agreements; our inability to finance our operations due to the status of the capital markets or our inability to effectively manage our foreign currency exposure; operating and financial restrictions imposed on us by our loan, debt and security agreements; changes in our credit ratings; changes to government regulations that provide incentives for renewable energy; our inability to identify sufficient investment
development of greenfield projects; delays, cost overruns and other problems associated with the construction, development and operation of our generating facilities; arrangements we enter into with communities and joint venture partners; Brookfield Asset Management Inc.’s (“BAM”) election not to source acquisition opportunities for us and our lack of access to all renewable power acquisitions that BAM identifies; we do not control all of our operations; our ability to issue equity or debt for future acquisitions and development projects is dependent on capital markets; foreign laws or regulation to which we become subject as a result of future acquisitions in new markets; the departure of some or all of BAM’s key professionals; our relationship with, and our dependence on, BAM and BAM’s significant influence over us; and risks related to changes in how BAM elects to hold its ownership interests in BEP. We caution that the foregoing list of important factors that may affect future results is not exhaustive. The forward-looking statements represent our views as of the date of this presentation and should not be relied upon as representing our views as of any date subsequent to September 29, 2016, the date of this presentation. While we anticipate that subsequent events and developments may cause our views to change, we disclaim any obligation to update the forward-looking statements, other than as required by applicable law. For further information on these known and unknown risks, please see “Risk Factors” included in our Form 20-F. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING USE OF NON-IFRS MEASURES This presentation contains references to Funds From Operations (also referred to in the presentation as “FFO”), which is not a generally accepted accounting measure under IFRS and therefore may differ from definitions of Funds From Operations used by other entities. We believe that this is a useful supplemental measure that may assist investors in assessing the financial performance and the cash anticipated to be generated by our operating portfolio. Funds From Operations should not be considered as the sole measure of our performance and should not be considered in isolation from, or as a substitute for, analysis of our financial statements prepared in accordance with IFRS. References to BEP are to Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. together with its subsidiary and operating entities unless the context reflects otherwise. All amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise specified.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
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Table of Contents
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Overview 5
SACHIN SHAH, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Power Markets – Where Do We Go From Here? 15
STEPHANE LANDRY, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT MARKET RESEARCH
Growth Objectives 24
SACHIN SHAH, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Colombia Investment 32
SACHIN SHAH, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
High Quality Cash Flows 40
NICK GOODMAN, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
What Are We Here to Talk About?
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Renewables is a high growth sector What should investors consider in their decision making? How do we think about value? All cash flows are not created equal!
Overview
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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Hydro Wind Solar Other
Global Renewable Capacity Additions (GW)*
* Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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9
What is Quality?
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Long duration cash flow streams that are not reliant on subsidies Strong cash margins through cycles Proven technologies with minimal risk of obsolescence Long-term track record of delivering superior returns Significant growth potential
Who We Are BEP is a Global Leader in Renewable Power Generation
POWER ASSETS
Located in 15 power markets across 7 countries
PERPETUAL GENERATION
Situated on 82 river systems with significant resource diversification
TRACK RECORD
As a publicly listed company
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Global Scale with Local Expertise
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We have integrated operating platforms on three continents with local operating, development and power marketing capabilities
Colombia
~$5 billion AUM 3,032 MW 690 employees
Europe
~$1 billion AUM 587 MW 110 employees
North America
~$17 billion AUM 5,901 MW 1,100 employees
Brazil
~$3 billion AUM 1,142 MW 410 employees
$1.30 $1.38 $1.45 $1.55 $1.66 $1.78 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 $1.80 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
We Continue to Deliver Long-Term Value
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Distribution Growth
Annualized Total Return1 1 yr 3 yr 5 yr 17 yr BEP.UN (TSX) 13% 20% 17% 16% BEP (NYSE) 13% 12% 11% N/A S&P Global Clean Energy Index (1%) 3% (5%) N/A S&P 500 Utilities Index 20% 14% 12% 7% Alerian MLP Index (6%) (5%) 4% 12%
1 Source: Bloomberg, including reinvestment of dividends at August 31, 2016.
~7% CAGR
Price Performance
Our objective remains to deliver long-term total returns of 12-15% to shareholders
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BEP Delivers High Quality Cash Flow with Significant Upside
Over 90% of cash flow generated by hydro assets Inflation-linked contracted cash flows 6,800 MW internalized development pipeline Strategic exposure to rising energy prices Targeting $500-$600 million of annual investment providing 12-15% total returns
Power Markets – Where Do We Go From Here?
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Why Are Energy Prices Low?
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Build Cost ($/MWh) Capacity Factor Hydro Wind Nuclear CCGT Coal Solar
Wholesale Market Subsidy Market Delivered Electricity Cost
system operators
profitability
setter status
mediocre returns
The Impact Has Been Devastating For Most…
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Nuclear Coal CCGT Wind/Solar
Hydro Keeps Generating Cash Flow Through the Bottom
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Hydro
Early Signs That Change Is Coming
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Subsidies continue to be at risk Direct contracting is circumventing broken markets Pressure on climate initiatives is growing
Our hydro portfolio is well positioned to benefit from these changing dynamics
Where Would You Rather Be Invested?
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Least Desirable Most Desirable
CCGT
Perpetual ~60 Years ~25 Years ~25 Years
NUCLEAR
WIND/ SOLAR
~40 Years COAL Carbon producing Non-carbon producing
Where Have We Been Investing?
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– Exposed to coal retirement and stringent renewable standards – We have been buying assets at the bottom of the price cycle
– Tremendously undersupplied markets – Scarcity of capital
replacement cost
This provides investors with strong downside protection and significant upside
Review of Our Other Core Markets
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Brazil Colombia Europe
Growth Objectives
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Growth Strategy
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1. Use our global scale and investment capabilities to move capital where it is scarce 2. Invest $500 - $600 million per year to acquire assets that require operational expertise and deliver outsized returns 3. Focus on the highest quality hydro assets 4. Deliver ~200 MW per year of our proprietary development pipeline 5. Cautiously expand into new technologies and geographies
Embed the business with long-term cash flow streams with upside
Our Global Scale
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BEP Operations BAM Office
UK, Europe, Middle East Asia North America South America Australia
Fully Integrated Platforms Monitoring
We See Value Differently
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Current Market Dynamic Brookfield Approach
BEP
Contracted Wind & Solar
Merchant Hydro Development Arbitrage Restructurings Capital Markets North America Australasia Europe Latin America
A Unique Mix of Investment and Operational Capabilities…
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Merchant Hydro Invested ~$2 billion into U.S. hydro assets buying at the cyclical bottom Development Arbitrage Developed 1,200 MW of our 1,600 MW portfolio at +15% returns Capital Markets / Restructuring Identified a disconnect between public/private asset valuations and accumulated 25% exposure to TerraForm Power on a value basis Moving Capital Freely Invested $600 million into Brazil in 2015 in the midst of recession Invested $900 million into Ireland in 2014 at the peak of the Eurozone crisis Invested over $3 billion into Colombia in early 2016 when currency had dropped ~45%
Surely There is No More Hydro Left to Buy?
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70% of US hydro plants are in the hands of the private sector presenting a $35 billion investment opportunity in the US alone (not including what we already own!) Nearly 75% of plant owners own only one facility supporting our tuck-in strategy
Private Utility Non-Utility Industrial Cooperative
Private U.S. Hydro Ownership
Unaddressed Opportunity Current Outreach
Global Hydro Opportunity Remains Large
$340 billion* ~$35 billion*
* Brookfield estimates based on publicly available capacity data and $2 million/MWh valuation assumption
6,800 MW
5,550 1,250 Early Advanced
Development Pipeline
30 15% 75% 10% Hydro Wind Solar
Focused on growing and advancing our development pipeline as a source of future growth at outsized returns
35% 25% 40% North America LATAM Europe
Development Stage Technology Region
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Colombia Investment
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Stable government, rule of law and respect for capital Competitive, transparent power markets Entry point with good long-term fundamental value Ability to build meaningful scale over time Established local capital markets
Why We Like Colombia
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Investment Recap Brookfield led consortium has acquired a 99.6% stake in Isagen, a high quality, strategic Colombian hydroelectric portfolio
3,032 MW portfolio of irreplaceable hydro assets providing critical supply
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Acquired initial 57.6% stake from Government and increased ownership to 99.6% via two mandatory tender
~$5 billion enterprise value transaction Attractive entry point into undersupplied market with growing demand
Portfolio of Exceptional Hydro Facilities 6 assets totalling 2.7 GW of recently-built, well maintained and modernized large-scale hydro assets
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Perpetual Franchise
High quality assets with low annual capital requirements
National Generator
Providing critical infrastructure within Colombia
Replacement Value
Opportunity to acquire assets at 50% discount to replacement cost
Sogamoso
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Sogomoso (840 MW, largest reservoir in Colombia)
Deeply Undersupplied Market
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1. ~50 million people served by an installed energy capacity of 16,000 megawatts 2. 3-4% long-term annual GDP and power demand growth (~450 MW/year of new capacity required) 3. Ability to freely contract with regulated utilities and large consumers Annual Domestic Electricity Demand (GW)*
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Average Demand Peak Demand Forecast * Source: XM Compañía Expertos en Mercados S.A. E.S.P., Brookfield
$90 $85 $75
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 CCGT Coal Hydro
Low High
Underwritten Energy Price Range
Attractive Entry Point
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Colombia Cost of New Entry ($USD/MWh)* COP/USD Historical Exchange Rate
1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Isagen Average Cost
$115 $110 $105
* Source: Brookfield
Business Plan
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Brookfield’s business plan focuses on unlocking value by targeting key value levers within the platform to drive ~20% nominal returns Operational Optimization Power Marketing Greenfield Development Capital Structure
High Quality Cash Flows
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98% 2% Return On Capital Return Of Capital
Return On vs. Return Of Capital
42 65% 35% Return On Capital Return Of Capital
Hydro Wind/Solar
Assumes:
95% 5% Return on Capital Return of Capital
We Provide the Highest Quality Cash Flows
43 88% 12% Hydro Wind 85% 15% Investment Grade Non-Investment Grade
BEP Distributions Technology Quality
Assumes:
perpetual assets
Why Is This Important?
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Sustainable Distribution Equity Base Grows Over Time Pursue Accretive Transactions
When building a long-term business to support growing distributions into perpetuity, return
Combined with Our Stable Financial Profile…
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Stable and Growing Margins Highly Contracted Cash Flows Conservative Capital Structure
BEP maintains a robust balance sheet and stable cash flow profile with a focus on downside protection
at investment grade metrics
And Significant Liquidity…
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Debt & Preferred Equity Capital Recycling Common Equity
BEP has proven access to capital markets but we focus on funding growth in the most accretive manner for shareholders
Creates a Compelling Investment Proposition
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Sustainable distribution with 5% to 9% annual growth
Positioned to benefit from climate change policy Investment grade balance sheet 95% return on capital Proven M&A track record Internal development pipeline Exposure to rising power prices
BEP should trade at a premium to its peers
Peer Trading Yields
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4.4% 4.3% 5.6% 5.9%
* Average yield based on market prices at August. 31, 2016
The Discount Grows if You Consider the Real Yield
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Current Yield* Assumed Return on Capital Dividend Return
YieldCos Brookfield Renewable
BEP provides the highest quality distribution over the long-term 200 bps
X X = =
* Average yield based on market prices at August. 31, 2016
Yield Sensitivity
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Yield Value Potential Return
Our Shares Trade at a Discount to Intrinsic Value
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(EV / EBITDA Multiples)
Low High North American Hydro 16.0x 18.0x LATAM Hydro 11.0x 13.0x Wind 11.0x 13.0x BEP Average 15.0x 17.0x NAV / Share $ 34.00 $42.00 Implied Yield 5.2% 4.2% Potential Return ~15% ~40% This excludes the value of our development pipeline which could add $2.00 to $3.00
Putting All the Pieces Together
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We are singularly focused on delivering 12%-15% total returns per share We have the longest track record in the sector We trade at a ~$5-$10 discount compared to intrinsic value Our investable universe is unmatched