Briefing on supply conditions Mark Rothleder VP, Market Quality - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Briefing on supply conditions Mark Rothleder VP, Market Quality & Renewable Integration EIM Governing Body Meeting General Session April 19, 2017

Actual net-load and 3-hour ramps are approximately 4 years ahead of the original estimate Typical Spring Day Steeper Ramps Deeper Actual 3-hour ramp belly 12,960 MW on December 18, 2016 Net Load 10,386 MW on April 9, 2017 Slide 2

Volume of curtailment increasing Curtailment (GWh) 100 120 20 40 60 80 0 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Renewable Curtailment Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Slide 3

Energy Imbalance Market helps avoid curtailment 120 450 400 100 350 80 300 Cumulative (Gwh) Curtailment (GWh) 250 60 200 40 150 100 20 50 0 0 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Renewable Curtailment Avoided Curtailment Cumulative Avoided Curtailment Slide 4

Frequency of curtailment % of real-time intervals with curtailment Slide 5

When oversupply conditions exist, prices fall facilitating transfer out of California Slide 6

Solar production complemented the hydro production during the drought years as compared to 2006, which was a high hydro year Hydro vs. Solar Production 6,000 5,000 4,000 GWh 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Jan Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May Feb Mar May Feb Mar May Feb Mar May Feb 2006 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hydro Solar Slide 7

2016/2017 hydro conditions are higher than normal Source: CDWR Slide 8

The ISO has started to forecast and communicate expectation of oversupply conditions to inform market “Market Participant Heads-Up During Mid-day on Trade Date 3/30/2017, the ISO is forecasting over-supply conditions due to mild temperatures, sunny conditions, above average winds and increased hydro run-off. To the extent the market dispatch is unable to fully mitigate the over-supply and maintain the power balance, the ISO Operators will invoke the Overgeneration Operating Procedure 2390 in Real Time.” Slide 9

QUESTIONS / DISCUSSION