Briefing on supply conditions Mark Rothleder VP, Market Quality - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Briefing on supply conditions

Mark Rothleder VP, Market Quality & Renewable Integration EIM Governing Body Meeting General Session April 19, 2017

Slide 2

Actual net-load and 3-hour ramps are approximately 4 years ahead of the original estimate

Typical Spring Day

Net Load 10,386 MW on April 9, 2017 Actual 3-hour ramp 12,960 MW on December 18, 2016

Deeper belly Steeper Ramps

Slide 3

Volume of curtailment increasing

20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17

Curtailment (GWh)

Renewable Curtailment

Slide 4

Energy Imbalance Market helps avoid curtailment

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17

Curtailment (GWh)

Renewable Curtailment Avoided Curtailment Cumulative Avoided Curtailment

Cumulative (Gwh)

Slide 5

Frequency of curtailment

% of real-time intervals with curtailment

Slide 6

When oversupply conditions exist, prices fall facilitating transfer out of California

Slide 7

Solar production complemented the hydro production during the drought years as compared to 2006, which was a high hydro year

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2006 2014 2015 2016 2017 GWh

Hydro vs. Solar Production

Hydro Solar

Slide 8

2016/2017 hydro conditions are higher than normal

Source: CDWR

Slide 9

The ISO has started to forecast and communicate expectation of oversupply conditions to inform market

“Market Participant Heads-Up During Mid-day on Trade Date 3/30/2017, the ISO is forecasting

• ver-supply conditions due to mild temperatures, sunny

conditions, above average winds and increased hydro run-off. To the extent the market dispatch is unable to fully mitigate the

• ver-supply and maintain the power balance, the ISO Operators

will invoke the Overgeneration Operating Procedure 2390 in Real Time.”

QUESTIONS / DISCUSSION