Briefing on Enrollment Projections & Class Size Report Cintia - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
briefing on enrollment projections class size report
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Briefing on Enrollment Projections & Class Size Report Cintia - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 26, 2024 16 likes •340 views

Briefing on Enrollment Projections & Class Size Report Cintia Johnson Assistant Superintendent, Administrative Services John Chadwick Assistant Superintendent, Facilities and Operations Lionel White Director, Facilities Planning January

slide-1
SLIDE 1

January 19, 2017

Briefing on Enrollment Projections & Class Size Report

Cintia Johnson Assistant Superintendent, Administrative Services John Chadwick Assistant Superintendent, Facilities and Operations Lionel White Director, Facilities Planning 1

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Presenting Data

  • Cite the data source(s)
  • Describe the methodology
  • Quality Assurance measures
  • Transparency of data/information
  • Respond to questions

2

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Class Size

3

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Policy 20‐1.300 Ensures the provision of class sizes that support the effective delivery of the instructional program to all students.

Class Size

4

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Operational Definition

Planning Factors:

  • Building blocks for the APS budget,

specifying the level of most resources needed to run the schools. Planning factors often, but not always, are expressed as ratios of resources to students (for example, student/teacher ratio, textbook funds per student, student/counselor ratio).

5

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Data Sources

  • Class Size Report from Student Information

System

  • Planning Factors

6

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Terms / Calculations Used

Kindergarten

  • One teacher ‐ maximum class size 24
  • One assistant for 16 + students

First – Fifth Grade

  • Number of students divided by planning factor while taking into account

recommended maximum class

Middle School

  • Per 23.4 general education students with an adjustment to extrapolate 5 teacher

periods to7 student periods, and an added factor for mainstreaming special education students

High School

  • Per 25.4 general education students with an adjustment to extrapolate 5 teacher

periods to 7 student periods, and an added factor for mainstreaming special education students. (Enrollment is adjusted to accommodate students taking courses at the Career Center. 7

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Quality Assurance Process

Data reviewed by:

  • Class report is provided by Information

Services

  • Confirmation by Administrative Service

8

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Class Size Report

Source: Student Information System Report Generated Using January 12, 2017 Enrollment

9

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Class Size at 27 or More: 2016‐17

Source: APS Statistics Report Generated Using January 18, 2017 Enrollment

10

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Class Size at 27 or More: 2016‐17

Source: APS Statistics Report Generated Using January 18, 2017 Enrollment

11

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Class Size Range: 2016‐17

Source: APS Statistics Report Generated Using January 18, 2017 Enrollment

12

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Annual Website Postings

  • Class Size Report

November

13 Source: APS Statistics

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Short‐Term Planning

  • Assess student variance across the schools
  • Identify student distribution in classes
  • Addresses scheduling needs and student

selection of courses

Long‐Term Planning

  • Analysis of student course selection

How Data is Used

14

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Enrollment Projections

15

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Enrollment Projections

  • Policy 40‐1.06 Budget Direction
  • Policy 40‐1.07 Operating Budget Development
  • Policy 40‐1.08 Capital Improvement Plan
  • PIP 50‐1.1 Capital Program Implementation

16

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Operational Definition

Enrollment Projections:

  • Measure future growth by

extrapolating current trends and applying statistical techniques.

17 Source: Arlington Community Facilities Study

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Internal Data Sources:

Information Services

  • September 30th Membership Report
  • Used to develop 3‐year average cohort transition rate

Finance and Management Services

  • Pre‐K Enrollment Data

Student Services & Special Education

  • Pre‐K Special Education Data

18

slide-19
SLIDE 19

External Data Sources

Community Planning, Housing & Development

  • Residential housing development data
  • County population data
  • Housing stock / Home Sales

Virginia Department of Health

  • Arlington County “resident” birth data
  • Use birth five years prior, to project kindergarten cohort

Affordable Housing Developers

  • Future affordable residential units planned or under

construction

19

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Terms / Calculations Used

Birth to Kindergarten Ratio (BK Ratio)

  • Historic “resident” birth rates in Arlington County, five years prior, are used to project future incoming cohorts
  • Example: Resident births in SY 2011 divided by current KG cohort on September 30, 2016 equals Birth to Kindergarten Ratio

Cohort Transition Ratio

  • The likelihood of a student advancing from one grade to the next based on historical three‐year cohort transition averaging
  • f cohorts using historic “official count” information.
  • Example: Grade 12 cohort in SY 2016 divided by Grade 11 cohort in SY 2015 equals Cohort Transition Ratio

Student Generation Factor (SGF)

  • Attempts to predict the number of students a residential housing development would generate after constructed and
  • ccupied.
  • Example: Students divided by Housing Units equals Student Generation Factor

Student Yield from Future Housing

  • Students from recently completed residential housing units are added equally in year 1 and year 2 of the projections.
  • Students from residential development projects currently under construction are added equally in years 3 through year 5 of

the projections.

  • Students from residential development projects “approved by the county but not yet under construction” are added equally

in Years 6 through Year 10 of the projections.

  • Projected housing unit by type times SGF by type equals potential student enrollment from new residential development.

20

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Kindergarten (KG) Projections

  • Most difficult to project because preceding grade

information not available

  • Rely on birth data, historical kindergarten class size,

student yield from new housing units, also consider

  • ther sources of information including BK ratio
  • KG projections involve examining historical KG

enrollment trends and selecting appropriate methods based on individual school circumstances

  • Collaborating with County Staff to refine longer

term kindergarten projections

21

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Example KG Projection Methods

  • Three‐year rolling average
  • Five‐year rolling average
  • Three‐year weighted average
  • Five‐year weighted average

Note: School principals are always consulted and given the

  • pportunity to provide input during process for all

grades.

22

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Projections for 1st through 12th Grade

  • Easier to project because previous

enrollment history information available by grade available

  • Rely heavily on cohort transition rates,

also consider other sources of information such as student yield from new housing units

23

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Quality Assurance Process

Projections reviewed by:

  • Facilities planning staff
  • School principals
  • Independent third party

statistical specialist

24

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Percent Enrollment Change Since 2001

1.1 0.2 ‐0.1 ‐2.0 ‐1.8 0.2 1.3 4.5 3.6 5.0 2.8 3.5 3.1 5.2 2.9 3.6

‐3 ‐2 ‐1 1 2 3 4 5 6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 High Growth Rate

25

‐0.1

Source: Annual Enrollment Projection Report – December 2016

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Alternative Projection Scenarios

Fall 2016 ‐ 2026

26

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Total Enrollment from Fall 2000 to 2026

Projected to reach 32,493 Students in September 2026

18,882 19,097 19,140 19,120 18,744 18,411 18,451 18,684 19,534 20,233 21,241 21,845 22,613 23,316 24,529 25,238 26,152 27,197 27,879 28,708 29,435 30,139 30,799 31,274 31,848 32,184 32,493

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Enrollment

Projected Actuals

27 Source: Annual Enrollment Projection Report ‐‐ December 2016

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Projected Enrollment Fall 2016 to 2026

Expected to grow 6,300+ students by Fall 2026

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 High Middle Elementary PreK

28

26,152 27,197 27,879 28,708 29,435 30,139 30,799 31,274 31,848 32,184 32,493

Source: Annual Enrollment Projection Report ‐‐ December 2016

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Annual Website Postings

  • Fall Ten‐year Enrollment Projections

November/December

  • APS Annual Enrollment Projections Report

December

  • Ten‐year Capacity Utilization Chart

December

  • Spring Enrollment Projection Updates for

Following Fall March/April

29 Source: APS Statistics

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Short‐Term Planning

  • Budgeting
  • Staffing
  • ASAP / Annual Student Accommodation Plan

Long‐Term Planning

  • AFSAP / Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation

Plan

  • CIP / Capital Improvement Plan

How Data is Used

30

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Clarification

High School Boundary Change Data Analysis

Differences:

  • 1. Projections versus Actuals
  • 2. Students Attending versus Students Residing
  • 3. Student data from different School Years

Source Data November 2015 Projections January 11, 2017 HS Boundary Change Data Analysis

Website Link: Link Link Students Projected (before Boundary Changes) Students RESIDING in HS Boundary Projected enrollment for SY2020‐21 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th grade students (9/30/16) Data Source: Annual APS Enrollment Projections Report September 30, 2016 Membership Summary

Wakefield

2,320 2,418

Washington‐Lee

2,912 2,123

Yorktown

2,255 2,796

Other Programs

676 Not applicable for analysis

Total

8,163 7,337

31

slide-32
SLIDE 32

January 19, 2017

Briefing on Enrollment Projections & Class Size Report

Cintia Johnson Assistant Superintendent, Administrative Services John Chadwick Assistant Superintendent, Facilities and Operations Lionel White Director, Facilities Planning 32