2016 UPDATE ON CLASS SIZE, OVERCROWDING, AND CAPITAL PLAN: P .S. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Leonie Haimson for P.S. 39K PTA Class Size Matters March 31, 2016

2016 UPDATE ON CLASS SIZE, OVERCROWDING, AND CAPITAL PLAN: P .S. 39, DISTRICT 15 AND CITYWIDE

Class Size reduction: a proven reform

• Lowering class size is only of only four K-12 reforms cited by Institute
• f Education Sciences as increasing student learning shown thru

“rigorous evidence.”

• Students in smaller classes get better test scores, higher grades, are

more engaged & less likely to “act out”, more likely to graduate from HS and from college with a STEM degree, own their own home and have a 401K years later.

• Disadvantaged students & students in color gain twice the benefits
• That’s why lowering class size is one of very few reforms shown to

narrow the achievement gap.

• Yet NYC students have class sizes much larger than those in the rest
• f NYS, where average is 20-22 students per class in all grades.

* Other three K-12 evidence-based reforms include one-on-one tutoring by qualified tutors for at-risk readers in grades 1-3, Life-Skills training for junior high students, and instruction for early readers in phonemic awareness and phonics.

CFE decision and C4E law in 2007 required smaller classes

• State’s NY’s highest court in Campaign for Fiscal

Excellence case: NYC students deprived of constitutional right to an adequate education because of excessive class sizes

• In 2007, the state Contracts for Excellence law passed,

requiring NYC schools to reduce class size in all grades.

• The state-approved DOE plan called for lowering class

size reduction to an average of no more than 20 students per class in grades K-3, 23 in 4-8th grades and 25 in HS.

What happened instead?

• Yet class sizes increased sharply instead of declining

since 2008 –result of city and state budget cuts

• More than 350,000 NYC school kids are crammed into classes
• f 30 or more this year
• Also, UFT and DOE also dropped a 20-yr agreement to cap class

sizes at 28 in grades 1-3 in 2011.

• Number of children in classes of 30 in grades K-3 have doubled
• ver the past five years
• Yet Chancellor Farina has said that she is concerned that class

sizes can be “too small.”

Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2008-Fall 2015, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

Class sizes in P .S. 39 have increased in grades K-3 by 47.7% since 2008 and are now far above C4E goals

17.2 18.1 21.0 21.5 22.4 23.0 26.2 25.4 20.4 21.6 23.0 23.8 24.6 25.2 25.1 24.9 21.4 22.1 22.9 23.9 24.5 24.9 24.7 24.6 20.5 20.3 20.1 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9

17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0

2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 P.S. 39 and D15 K-3 Class Size Averages compared to Citywide and C4E goals

P.S. 39 D15 Citywide C4E goals

*P.S. 39 only serves grades 4-5 Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2008-Fall 2015, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

Class sizes in PS 39 have increased in grades 4-5 by 20% since 2009 and are now far above C4E goals

23.5 22.3 23.3 24.3 24.5 24.5 27.5 26.8 23.6 24.1 25.0 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.5 25.3 25.8 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.7 24.6 23.8 23.3 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 P.S. 39 and D15 K-8* Class Size Averages compared to Citywide and C4E goals

P.S. 39 D15 Citywide C4E target

26.1 26.2 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.7 26.8 26.7 26 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5

23 23.5 24 24.5 25 25.5 26 26.5 27

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Citywide HS class size trend compared to C4E goals Citywide Actual C4E Target

*DOE’s methodology for calculating HS averages has changed year to year Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-Fall 2015, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

Class sizes citywide have increased in High School since 2007 and are now far above C4E goals

24,417 35,137 45,242 45,442 48,440

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Trend of K-3 Students in classes of 30 or more

The number has nearly doubled in the past five years

Data Source: DOE Citywide Class Size Distribution data, 2011-15

Examples of large elementary school class sizes in District 15

33 32 32 32 32 32 31 30 30 29 29 28 28 28

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

D15 Third Grade

32 32 32 31 30 29 29 28 28 28 28 27 26 26 26 26 26

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

D15 Second Grade

32 31 31 31 29 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 26 26 26

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

D15 First Grade

28 27 27 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

5 10 15 20 25 30

D15 Kindergarten

* P.S. 39 in red

School overcrowding also increasing at PS 39, in D15 and citywide

• Citywide, schools have become more overcrowded over last six

years.

• More than 556,000 students citywide (53% of NYC’s student

population) were in overcrowded buildings last year.

• Elementary schools average building utilization rate citywide is

103.5% (mean) and 107% (median) as of 2014-2015 school year.

• D15 elementary schools were at 117.5%.
• PS 39 was at 145%.

P .S. 39 and District 15 Utilization figures*

D15 buildings and P .S. 39 utilizations were higher than citywide averages last year

*Calculated by dividing building enrollment by the target capacity **assuming same building capacity is in 2014-15 Source: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book and Registration Information from ATS found here; http://schools.nyc.gov/SchoolPortals/15/K039/AboutUs/Statistics/register.htm

145% 117.5% 103.5%

100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% 130% 135% 140% 145% 150%

P.S. 39 Building Utilization 2014-15 D15 Elementary School City Wide Elementary School

162%

100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 170%

Estimated P.S. 39 Building Utilization as of March, 2016**

Proposed new capital plan vs. needs for seats

• New proposed capital plan has about 49,000 K12 seats (compared to 33,000 in

May plan) – at an additional total cost of nearly $1 billion.

• DOE now admits real need of approximately 83,000 seats (compared to DOE

estimate in May of 49,245).

• Thus DOE is only funding 59% of need for seats according to its own projected

need.

• Many of those seats remain unsited even as to borough and district.
• CSM estimates real need is over 100,000 seats, based on enrollment

projections and existing overcrowding –

• About 40,000 seats needed in just those districts with utilization averages over

100%, plus 60K-70K more for projected enrollment growth.

Overcrowding in District 15 and Brooklyn HS’s

• 25 ES and MS school buildings in CSD 15 are over-utilized

according to DOE data.

• About 4,622 seats are needed for these buildings to reach

100% utilization.

• In Brooklyn, 16 high school buildings are overcrowded
• 9,303 additional seats needed in these HS schools to reach

100%.

*IS/PS Schools are counted as Elementary Schools, and Secondary Schools are counted as Middle Schools Sources: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book and Registration Information from ATS found here; http://schools.nyc.gov/SchoolPortals/15/K039/AboutUs/Statistics/register.htm

25 D15 ES & MS school buildings are above 100% Utilization

*4,622 seats needed to reduce these buildings to 100% - not counting

enrollment projections but only 3,840 in cap plan

119% 132% 134% 106% 124% 167% 117% 146% 150% 149% 155% 153% 192% 114% 114% 117% 112% 137% 109% 115% 103% 145% 128% 144% 133%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

*IS/PS Schools are counted as Elementary Schools, and Secondary Schools are counted as Middle Schools Source: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book

16 Brooklyn HS buildings above 100% Utilization

*9,303 seats needed but NO HS to be built in Brooklyn in cap plan

122% 127% 115% 104% 104% 124% 186% 124% 160% 113% 121% 122% 141% 135% 129% 159%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%

*IS/PS Schools are counted as Elementary Schools, and Secondary Schools are counted as Middle Schools Source: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book

3,190 692 456 456 3,016 640 912 2,593 991 3,840 1,000 4,869 912 456 4,869 2,221 924 972 1,920 4,536 1,736

• 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31

Total Funded K-8 Seats In January 2016 Capital Plan by District 3,840 seats in D15

Data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016

Number of seats added in the January Capital Plan

1,648 seats were added in D15

824 1,503 1,648 1,000 824 824 824 824 2,624 824

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

D2 D3 D7 D8 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31

Added Seats in the January 2016 Capital Plan By District

Data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016

Data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016

99% 100% 44% 44% 0% 53% 26% 61% 76% 63% 51% 100% 47% 37% 35% 52% 43% 37% 56% 53% 76% 52%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31

Funded Seats in Jan. 2016 Capital Plan compared to DOE's Identified Need by District (K-8 Only) – Only 51% of D15’s seat need is funded

46% 100% 0% 33% 0% 9% 0% 0% 28% 0% 7% 0% 7% 19% 0% 31% 12% 19% 35% 23% 8% 7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

D2 D3 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 D19 D20 D21 D22 D24 D25 D26 D27 D28 D30 D31 K-8 Seats in Scope/Design versus DOE Identified Need by District

*Scope/Design means that the seats are in the process of getting sited and constructed, as opposed to only being budgeted for Data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016

86% 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Staten Island HS Queens HS HS Seats in Scope/Design versus DOE Identified Need by Borough

Percent of Seats in Scope/Design* compared to DOE Identified Need

Only 15% of DOE’s Identified need are in Scope and Design

Only 7% of seats in D15

Data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016 *project in area funded for design only

Capital Plan in D15 Sub-districts

DOE identified a seat need of 2,744 in Park Slope, but only 1,464 seats are funded – about 53%, and there are no seats sited and in scope/design

2,610 2,744 2,192 1,096 1,464 1,280 113 436

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Sunset Park Park Slope Carroll Gardens/Goanus/Red Hook Doe Identified Need, Funded Seats, and Scope/design seats by sub district

DOE Identified Need Funded Seats Number in scope/design

*Class Size Matters Estimated Total Need derived from seats needed to bring district average down to 100% utilization plus Estimated Enrollment based on Housing Starts 2012-2021 and the average of consultant projections (Grier Partnership 2011-2021 and Statistical Forecasting 2011-2021.) Additional data sources: Capital Plan updated January 2016, Blue Book 2014-2015.

New Capital Plan Seats and DOE Seat Need vs Class Size Matters Estimated Need for D15

3,840 7,546 9,957

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

ES and MS New Seats from January 2016 Capital Plan DOE Identified Need from January 2016 Capital Plan Class Size Matters Estimated Total Need* New Capital Plan and DOE Seat Need vs Class Size Matters Estimated Need for District 15, Grades K-8

Problems with DOE & SCA capacity to site and build schools

• No school Seats in Park Slope are in scope/design, and only 53% of the DOE’s

identified need for the subdistrict are sited.

• After 2 years DOE still has not determined in which borough or district most of

4900 seats in “class size reduction” category will built.

• Several overcrowded neighborhoods have had schools funded in the capital plan

for over a decade without DOE siting or building a single school

• SCA/DOE has real capacity problems in terms of efficient and accurate school

siting and planning

• Overcrowding will grow worse if Mayor’s rezoning plan to accelerate

residential development is adopted

• NYC needs to come up with a better process to ensure schools are built along

with new housing – instead of always playing catch up

NYC Council should create a Commission to improve efficiency and accuracy of school planning and siting

• Among issues Commission could consider: do we need reforms to

the zoning process to lower the threshold for building new schools?

• Should the formula used to estimate impact of new housing on

schools be updated & enrollment projections be carried out more frequently?

• Should the DOE needs assessment be made transparent and

include lost seats as well as seats gained?

• Should NYC require impact fees from developers and/or use

eminent domain to site schools more frequently?

• Without reforms to the planning process, overcrowding is likely to

worsen, with school construction lagging years behind other development.

How you can help

• Sign our petition at www.classsizematters.org -

urging Mayor & City Council to expand the capital plan & form a Commission to improve school planning

• Contact Council Member Lander on the need to

build more schools and create this commission.

• Sign up for our Class Size Matters newsletter for

updates on this and other issues.