Brian Dangerfield Centre for OR & Applied Statistics University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A System Dynamics model for Planning Economic Development Brian Dangerfield Centre for OR & Applied Statistics University of Salford, UK (Email: b.c.dangerfield@salford.ac.uk) FOUR PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGIES Spreadsheets Input-Output
Brian Dangerfield Centre for OR & Applied Statistics University of Salford, UK (Email: b.c.dangerfield@salford.ac.uk)
Structure Behaviour Data (Time series)
Structure Behaviour Data (Time series) Economics & Business Research using typical methodologies
Structure Behaviour Data (Time series) SD methodology
Structure Behaviour Data (Time series) SD methodology
+ Italy
No modelling methodology other than system dynamics could endogenously generate projections (red & blue) given the known behaviour from -15 yrs to now.
+20 +25 yr Typical “do nothing” scenario (result of an econometric projection?) Possible future from SD Model based on a definite intervention strategy: investment in capability. (Short term sacrifice for longer- term gain.) Possible future from SD model based on no investment in
longer term disaster.)
K- Indicators – Malaysia VS. United Kingdom 2001
1 00 20 30 40 500 60 700
Number of Computers* Tertiary Enrolment ^ Infrastructure for E- commerce~ Availability of Venture Capital ~ Total Expenditure on R&D $ Computer Power /MIP # Total R&D Personnel @ Newspaper Circulation * Mobile Telephones * Telephone Main Lines * Number of Internet Hosts * UK Malaysia
% of tertiary enrolment*30 ^ index points*100 ~ % of GDP *100 $ per 1000 inhabitants/100 # per 1000 inhabitants*100 @ per 1000 inhabitants *
Source: The World Competitiveness Yearbook 2001
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Years GDP RM Millions
ICT Infrastructure in Sarawak Demand for Knowledge Supply of Knowledge
DYNAMIC HYPOTHESIS: high-level map Primary & Secondary Education
Higher Education (Arts) Higher Education (Science) Vocational Education (Sub-professional) R & D Centres (Exemplars) Primary Industry (Agric; Forestry; Mining; M/facturing) Knowledge-based Industry & Services
High Value-added; Biotech; Medicine
Secondary Industry
(Transport; Storage; Retail; Finance & Insurance)
Broadband Cabling (Kms) Number of PC’s State Incentives
Federal Funds
ICT Infrastructure State Revenue
SUPPLY
DEMAND
COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE
F D I
Closures? Leakage Overseas? Skills/Tech Transfer Money Capital Equipment Human Resources
This is comprehensive & contains:
Secondary Education
Primary Education secondary enrolment primary enrolment
University (sciences) transition to university (sciences) secondary educ duration fraction terminating after sec education fraction terminating after primary educ primary educ duration Scientific labour available to k-firms graduation (sciences)
University (arts) transition to university (arts) total at university frac electing sciences univ educ duration initial skilled labour available to k-firms scientific recruits to R&D centres <scientific labour required per firm> <new
k-firms> Skilled ex-pats emigration
to k-firms time to average recruitment rate change frac electing sciences start of change frac electing sciences slope of change frac electing sciences <mean aging time> <population cohorts> Arts graduates on P/G courses Graduation (arts) into work repatriation
Technical education Tech labour available to k-firms technically qualifieds tech recruits to k-firms transition to tech/vocational educ <new
k-firms> <tech labour required per firm> frac electing tech educ. Tech educ duration frac converting to ICT Conversion rate <univ educ duration> <frac electing tech educ.> P/G course duration <fraction terminating after sec education> time to complete repatriation time to complete emigration skilled conversions scientific recruits to k-firms tech recruits to R&D centres <scientific recruits to k-firms>
personnel required <additions to Govt R&D centres> <additions to Govt R&D centres> <av. number of scientific personnel required> <ratio of technical to scientific personnel>
Higher transition to sciences Base run "Skilled labour available to k-firms" 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 emigration 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 "graduation (sciences)" 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 "recruits to k-firms" 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 10 20 Time (Year)
Higher % growth rate for transition to sciences is better but….higher emigration
60 45 30 15 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Time (Year) "new openings of k-firms" : Later start of shift to sciences firms/Year "new openings of k-firms" : Higher transition to sciences firms/Year "new openings of k-firms" : Base run firms/Year
A later start of the shift to sciences makes things marginally worse
Government R & D Institutes (backed by strong Higher Ed) Private sector spin-offs Foreign Multi-nationals attracted in
ICT infrastructure resources Govt R&D centres additions to Govt R&D centres centre closures Number of firms in k-industries new openings of k-firms closures of k-firms potential number
time for new firm to become fully operational scientific labour required per firm enhancement of infrastructure
resources reqd per firm <Scientific labour available to k-firms> initial ICT infrastructure resources potential number of new k-firms based
potential number of new k-firms based upon skilled labour <Time> start of infrastructure enhancement tech labour required per firm <Tech labour available to k-firms> budgeted state spending on R&D centres cost per R&D centre ratio of technical to scientific personnel F D I extra number of new k-firms from FDI
Area available for growing PO trees Area of immature PO trees Area of
PO trees area allocated for growing PO trees Area of semi-mature PO trees Area of mature PO trees conversion rate to semi-mature PO trees conversion rate to
semi-mature PO tree ageing
tree ageing annual yield from
annual yield from semi-mature PO tree unit area cost of forest clearing unit area PO planting cost unit area PO tree clearing cost PO desired planting rate PO plantation plan: lookup Area from PO tree felling planting rate of new PO trees PO tree replanting PO tree clearing cost PO land clearing cost PO tree plantation cost unit cost of managing new PO trees unit cost of managing
unit harvesting cost for semi-mature trees unit harvesting cost for mature trees unit harvesting cost for
PO fruit harvesting cost PO tree managing cost total PO fruit and kernel cost annual yield from mature PO tree <TIME STEP> <TIME STEP> <Time> unit cost of managing new PO trees: lookup <Time> <PO tree clearing cost> <PO fruit harvesting cost> <PO tree managing cost> <PO tree plantation cost> <planting rate of new PO trees> <PO tree replanting> <Area of over-mature PO trees> <semi-mature PO tree ageing> <over-mature PO tree ageing> <Area of mature PO trees>
crude palm oil product stocks palm oil production PO price palm oil fruit stocks harvesting rate of palm oil fruit palm oil production capacity PO production capacity lookup PO fruit to downstream uses palm oil price lookup palm oil kernel stocks harvesting rate for palm oil kernel palm oil kernel to downstream uses yield fraction from PO kernel PO annual sales revenue PO annual tax based revenue PO annual total costs PO sales unit cost of crude PO processing unit cost of PO kernel processing PO processing cost palm oil kernel product stocks PO kernel production ratio PO production capacity PO kernel sales <TIME STEP> PO fruit-oil conversion factor <Time> <Time> PO kernel conversion factor <TIME STEP> <Area of mature PO trees> <Area of
trees> <Area of semi-mature PO trees> <annual yield from mature PO tree> <annual yield from
trees> <annual yield from semi-mature PO tree> <total PO fruit and kernel cost> palm oil tax rate <PO price> <PO sales> <palm oil production capacity> <palm oil production>