BREXIT : Preparing for the uncertainty Welcome! Julian Clay EMC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
BREXIT : Preparing for the uncertainty Welcome! Julian Clay EMC Economic condi)ons Will Hobbs - Barclays Head of Investment strategy Europe surrounding BREXIT Strategy in an uncertain Chris White environment Strategy Growing
BREXIT : Preparing for the uncertainty
Julian Clay EMC
Welcome!
¢ Economic condi)ons surrounding BREXIT Will Hobbs - Barclays
Head of Investment strategy – Europe¢ Strategy in an uncertain environment Chris White
Strategy¢ Growing sales through uncertainty John Blackburn
Sales¢ Managing finances in uncertain )mes Ross Chris)e
Finance9.30am Q&A 10.00am Finish
The end of the world?
How sure can we be…?
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
Mark Twain (Josh Billings)
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
5 Global real GDP
Beware statistics…
Measuring the economy is not easy
8 Source: Fastfordmag Brexit
UK – doing ok
UK – doing ok
Brexit – likely unhelpful...
Brexit – the return of the euro crisis? (part 1)
Brexit – the return of the euro crisis? (part 2)
Global trade to GDP
Source: Datastream, Barclays Global poverty reduction
Source: World Bank, Datastream, Barclays 20 40 60 80 100 East Asia and Pacific excl. high income countries South Asia LatAm and Caribbean excl. high income countries 1981 2012 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP, % of pop) Contribution to world GDP growth
US GDP and import growth
Source: Datastream, Barclays Does the US president matter?
Source: Blinder and Watson, Barclays 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Truman-2 Eisenhower-1 Eisenhower-2 Kennedy- Johnson Johnson Nixon Nixon-Ford Carter Reagan-1 Reagan-2 Bush I Clinton-1 Clinton-2 Bush II-1 Bush II-2 Obama-1 GDP growth by presidential term (%, 1945-2012) US labour market – wages picking up
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Oct-06 Jun-09 Mar-12 Nov-14 US average hourly earnings: total private US average hourly earnings: total nonfarm production and nonsuprvisory US Employment Cost Index: total compensation Atlanta Fed median wage growth tracker Year on year (%) Interest rates can rise a long way...
“This is my long-run forecast in brief. The material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely. Within a century or two, all nations and most of humanity will be at or above today's Western living standards… … I also speculate, however, that many people will continue to think and say that the conditions of life are getting worse.”
Julian Simon, “The State of Humanity”
22 Disclaimer
This document has been issued and approved by Barclays Bank PLC. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent or warrant its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. This document does not constitute a prospectus, offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell securities and is not intended to provide the sole basis for any evaluation of the securities or any other instrument, which may be discussed in it. All estimates and opinions included in this document constitute our judgement as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice. This document is not a personal recommendation and you should consider whether you can rely upon any opinion or statement contained in this document without seeking further advice tailored for your own circumstances. This document is confidential and is being submitted to selected recipients only. It may not be reproduced or disclosed (in whole or in part) to any Chris White EMC Consultant Business Development and Strategy
Strategy in an uncertain environment
UK Business Confidence Monitor Q1 2017
“As uncertainty con/nues to prevail and shocks are the new normal, it is no surprise to see business confidence remaining sta/c and in nega/ve territory.”
UK Business Confidence
Technology
Uncertainty…what uncertainty??
World economy Trump Compe))on Exchange rates General elec)on BREXIT Globalisa)on Infla)on Climate change N.Korea
Rachel Naomi Remen Author, MD, US Medical Expert
“The willingness to consider possibility requires a tolerance of uncertainty”
A clear enough future Alterna)ve futures A range of futures True ambiguity
A B C LEVEL 1 A single view of the future LEVEL 2 Limited set of possible future
LEVEL 3 Range of future
LEVEL 4 Not even a range of future
Planning through four levels of uncertainty
Source: Those awfully clever people at Harvard Business School Three strategic positions during uncertainty….
Shape the future
Play a leadership role in your sector
Adapt to the future
Win through speed and agility – grab
Reserve the right to play
Invest enough to stay in the game but avoid commitments.
Source: Those awfully clever people at Harvard Business School Focal Issue Create the ‘Scenario team’
Scenario planning - a common sense planning tool
“By having an awareness of what could happen, you are beBer able to prepare for what will happen”.
IdenJfy driving forces
?
Scenario planning – what are your ‘driving forces’?
Poli)cal Economic Social Technological Legal Environmental
Focal Issue Create the ‘Scenario team’
Scenario planning - a common sense planning tool
“By having an awareness of what could happen, you are beBer able to prepare for what will happen”.
IdenJfy driving forces IdenJfy criJcal uncertainJes Develop plausible scenarios Define implicaJons and strategies
?
Top 5 scenario planning tips
Don’t make decisions based just
you already know Beware of giving too much weight to unlikely events Don’t assume the future will look like the past Combat
confidence and excessive
Encourage free and
debate
“By having an awareness of what could happen, you are beBer able to prepare for what will happen”.
John Blackburn EMC Sales Strategy Consultant
Growing sales through uncertainty
UK Business Confidence Monitor Q1 2017
“Sales growth, both domes/c and export, is expected to expand at a faster rate than last
not be translated into faster growth in profits”
UK Business Confidence
Opportunity or risk?
Is there an opportunity to change and challenge the status quo?
Managing change
Shock Anger Fear Acceptance Percep1on Commitment Denial Performance TIME Work load
Growing sales revenue and increasing your margins
critical areas
1 - Review your sales staff
2 - Inspect your customer base
3 – Re-energise your value proposition
4 – Promote standards and activity….‘FIT for BREXIT ’
5 – Record & reward… Make it fun !
Ross Christie EMC Finance Strategy Consultant
Managing finances in uncertain times
"For most companies, there will be a renewed emphasis on controlling costs and managing cash."
UK Business Confidence Monitor Q1 2017
UK Business Confidence
“I have a plan so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it Mr Fox”.
Sourcing strategy
Strategic financial planning?
Benchmarking Investment Outsourcing key func)ons Process & Systems
Cost control Is critical
Cash Management Tips
Gather varied and alternative inputs
Julian Clay EMC Sales strategy consultant
Q&A?
Implementation
“never let a good crisis go to waste”
An EU ‘Founding Father’
In conclusion
Thank you