B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N BPA Resource Program Draft Results May 10, 2018
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Agenda Time Mins Agenda Item 9:00 - 9:10 10 mins Introductions and Agenda Review 9:10 - 9:15 5 mins Project Overview Recap of Model Inputs: 9:15 - 10:15 60 mins • Load Forecast • CPA • DR Potential Assessment 10:15 - 10:45 30 mins Needs Assessment Overview and Results 10:45 - 10:55 10 mins Break 10:55 - 11:15 20 mins Overview of Optimization Model 11:15 - 11:50 35 mins Draft Outputs and Results 11:30 - 11:45 10 mins Wrap Up and Next Steps 2 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N BPA Resource Program The BPA Resource Program • Begins with a forecast of BPA load obligations and existing resources and then determines needs • Identifies and evaluates potential solutions to meeting those needs • Energy efficiency, demand response, market purchases, wind, solar, gas plants, etc. • Outlines potential strategies for meeting those needs The Resource Program is not • A decision or policy document such as an Administrator’s Record of Decision • A requirement of law or a regulating body such as FERC or NERC 3 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Resource Program Overview 4 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Previous Workshops Kick Off Meeting – March 2017 End Use Load Forecast – June 2017 CPA Kick off – May 2017 CPA Methodology – September 2017 Needs Assessment and Optimization Model Methodology – November 2017 CPA Results Brownbag – March 2018 5 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N End Use Load Forecast
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Implementing End-Use Forecasting Goal: Implement End-Use forecasting to provide a frozen efficiency forecast for the BPA Resource Program • Process that is transparent to and involves our customers • Consistency with the Council forecast data • Representative of the BPA Power contractual obligation • Integrates with our other BPA forecasting and planning activities Results: Contracting and Schedule complications required a small implementation in 2017 • Eleven customers had end-use (Statistically Adjusted End-use) models created due to delay on ITRON product • Remaining approximate 140 used existing time series process on pre-conservation energy 7 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Forecast results Frozen Efficiency and 2017 Expected Case Frozen Efficiency 12000 forecast 2018-2040 annual growth rate 10000 averages 0.9% Approximately 600 8000 aMW different in aMW 6000 Frozen Efficiency 2040 Expected Case Both will change as 4000 we refine the 2000 forecasting method over time 0 8 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N SAE Methodology Benefits We learned and confirmed several things during this implementation process • The process leverages work already done in the region using Council modeling details while tailoring it to the BPA service territory • The requisite review of the forecast is more thorough because of additional assumptions to consider – Leads to a comprehensive review of economy activity by BPA staff – Review of additional assumptions when having local area discussions about the forecast – Augments thought process used in econometric approach • Results are very utility specific 9 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Items to address over time Model Council forecast using this approach and see what results it produces to make sure we calibrate correctly to Council details Determine method to provide link and details for future Conservation Potential Assessments More work on customer specific reliable detail/data Create common vocabulary in region Arrange for details on distributed generation Work on data sources to leverage for or develop transmission level detail 10 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Needs Assessment
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Needs Assessment Overview The Needs Assessment provides forecasts of Federal system energy, capacity, and balancing reserve needs • Considers federal system resources and load obligations These results inform later steps of the Resource Program process The Needs Assessment methodology is largely unchanged from previous Resource Programs • Expanded to a 20 year continuous forecast • Updated to a frozen efficiency load forecast 12
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Needs Assessment Metrics Annual Energy • Evaluates the annual energy surplus/deficit under 1937-critical water conditions P10 Heavy Load Hour • Evaluates the 10 th percentile (P10) surplus/deficit over heavy load hours by month, given variability in hydro generation, loads, and Columbia Generating Station output P10 Superpeak • Evaluates the P10 surplus/deficit over the six peak load hours per weekday by month, given variability in hydro generation, loads, and Columbia Generating Station output 18-Hour Capacity • Evaluates the ability to meet the six peak load hours per day over three-day extreme weather events assuming median water conditions Balancing Reserves • Evaluates the ability to meet forecasted balancing reserve demand in the BPA balancing authority area 13
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Results Summary – Energy Annual Energy deficits begin in fiscal year (FY) 2021 and grow to 850 aMW by 2039 The largest P10 Heavy Load Hour deficits occur in winter, the first half of April, and fall • January has the largest deficits (650 aMW in FY 2020 and 1,850 aMW in FY 2039) The largest P10 Superpeak deficits occur in winter, the first half of April, and late summer/fall • Near load-resource balance in FY 2020 and deficits grow to 1,000 aMW by FY 2039 • The P10 Superpeak deficits are smaller than the P10 Heavy Load Hour deficits in most months, with the second halves of April and August being the exceptions 14
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Results Summary – Capacity & Reserves Winter is 18-Hour Capacity surplus over the study horizon, while summer is surplus in FY 2020 and deficit thereafter (550 MW in FY 2039) • The summer 18-Hour Capacity deficits are smaller than the P10 Superpeak deficits Demand for balancing reserves in the BPA balancing authority area is not expected to reach 900 MW of incremental reserve over the study horizon 15
B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Results: Annual Energy Key assumptions: • Hydro generation based on 1937-critical water conditions • Loads and Columbia Generating Station output reflect expected values 16
Recommend
More recommend
