bpa resource program draft results

BPA Resource Program Draft Results May 10, 2018 B O N - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N BPA Resource Program Draft Results May 10, 2018 B O


  1. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N BPA Resource Program Draft Results May 10, 2018

  2. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Agenda Time Mins Agenda Item 9:00 - 9:10 10 mins Introductions and Agenda Review 9:10 - 9:15 5 mins Project Overview Recap of Model Inputs: 9:15 - 10:15 60 mins • Load Forecast • CPA • DR Potential Assessment 10:15 - 10:45 30 mins Needs Assessment Overview and Results 10:45 - 10:55 10 mins Break 10:55 - 11:15 20 mins Overview of Optimization Model 11:15 - 11:50 35 mins Draft Outputs and Results 11:30 - 11:45 10 mins Wrap Up and Next Steps 2 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only

  3. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N BPA Resource Program  The BPA Resource Program • Begins with a forecast of BPA load obligations and existing resources and then determines needs • Identifies and evaluates potential solutions to meeting those needs • Energy efficiency, demand response, market purchases, wind, solar, gas plants, etc. • Outlines potential strategies for meeting those needs  The Resource Program is not • A decision or policy document such as an Administrator’s Record of Decision • A requirement of law or a regulating body such as FERC or NERC 3 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only

  4. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Resource Program Overview 4 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only

  5. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Previous Workshops  Kick Off Meeting – March 2017  End Use Load Forecast – June 2017  CPA Kick off – May 2017  CPA Methodology – September 2017  Needs Assessment and Optimization Model Methodology – November 2017  CPA Results Brownbag – March 2018 5 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only

  6. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N End Use Load Forecast

  7. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Implementing End-Use Forecasting  Goal: Implement End-Use forecasting to provide a frozen efficiency forecast for the BPA Resource Program • Process that is transparent to and involves our customers • Consistency with the Council forecast data • Representative of the BPA Power contractual obligation • Integrates with our other BPA forecasting and planning activities  Results: Contracting and Schedule complications required a small implementation in 2017 • Eleven customers had end-use (Statistically Adjusted End-use) models created due to delay on ITRON product • Remaining approximate 140 used existing time series process on pre-conservation energy 7 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only

  8. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Forecast results Frozen Efficiency and 2017 Expected Case  Frozen Efficiency 12000 forecast 2018-2040 annual growth rate 10000 averages 0.9%  Approximately 600 8000 aMW different in aMW 6000 Frozen Efficiency 2040 Expected Case  Both will change as 4000 we refine the 2000 forecasting method over time 0 8 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only

  9. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N SAE Methodology Benefits  We learned and confirmed several things during this implementation process • The process leverages work already done in the region using Council modeling details while tailoring it to the BPA service territory • The requisite review of the forecast is more thorough because of additional assumptions to consider – Leads to a comprehensive review of economy activity by BPA staff – Review of additional assumptions when having local area discussions about the forecast – Augments thought process used in econometric approach • Results are very utility specific 9 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only

  10. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Items to address over time  Model Council forecast using this approach and see what results it produces to make sure we calibrate correctly to Council details  Determine method to provide link and details for future Conservation Potential Assessments  More work on customer specific reliable detail/data  Create common vocabulary in region  Arrange for details on distributed generation  Work on data sources to leverage for or develop transmission level detail 10 Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only

  11. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Needs Assessment

  12. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Needs Assessment Overview  The Needs Assessment provides forecasts of Federal system energy, capacity, and balancing reserve needs • Considers federal system resources and load obligations  These results inform later steps of the Resource Program process  The Needs Assessment methodology is largely unchanged from previous Resource Programs • Expanded to a 20 year continuous forecast • Updated to a frozen efficiency load forecast 12

  13. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Needs Assessment Metrics  Annual Energy • Evaluates the annual energy surplus/deficit under 1937-critical water conditions  P10 Heavy Load Hour • Evaluates the 10 th percentile (P10) surplus/deficit over heavy load hours by month, given variability in hydro generation, loads, and Columbia Generating Station output  P10 Superpeak • Evaluates the P10 surplus/deficit over the six peak load hours per weekday by month, given variability in hydro generation, loads, and Columbia Generating Station output  18-Hour Capacity • Evaluates the ability to meet the six peak load hours per day over three-day extreme weather events assuming median water conditions  Balancing Reserves • Evaluates the ability to meet forecasted balancing reserve demand in the BPA balancing authority area 13

  14. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Results Summary – Energy  Annual Energy deficits begin in fiscal year (FY) 2021 and grow to 850 aMW by 2039  The largest P10 Heavy Load Hour deficits occur in winter, the first half of April, and fall • January has the largest deficits (650 aMW in FY 2020 and 1,850 aMW in FY 2039)  The largest P10 Superpeak deficits occur in winter, the first half of April, and late summer/fall • Near load-resource balance in FY 2020 and deficits grow to 1,000 aMW by FY 2039 • The P10 Superpeak deficits are smaller than the P10 Heavy Load Hour deficits in most months, with the second halves of April and August being the exceptions 14

  15. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Results Summary – Capacity & Reserves  Winter is 18-Hour Capacity surplus over the study horizon, while summer is surplus in FY 2020 and deficit thereafter (550 MW in FY 2039) • The summer 18-Hour Capacity deficits are smaller than the P10 Superpeak deficits  Demand for balancing reserves in the BPA balancing authority area is not expected to reach 900 MW of incremental reserve over the study horizon 15

  16. B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Results: Annual Energy  Key assumptions: • Hydro generation based on 1937-critical water conditions • Loads and Columbia Generating Station output reflect expected values 16

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