BP 4Q 2017 RESULTS
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BP ACQUISITION OF BHP’S US ONSHORE ASSETS
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BP ACQUISITION OF BHP’S US ONSHORE ASSETS
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BP ACQUISITION OF BHPS US ONSHORE ASSETS 1 1 BP 4Q 2017 RESULTS - - PDF document
27 July 2018 BP ACQUISITION OF BHPS US ONSHORE ASSETS 1 1 BP 4Q 2017 RESULTS BP ACQUISITION OF BHPS US ONSHORE ASSETS 1 Craig Marshall Group Head of Investor Relations 2 2 BP 4Q 2017 RESULTS BP ACQUISITION OF BHPS US ONSHORE
BP 4Q 2017 RESULTS
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BP ACQUISITION OF BHP’S US ONSHORE ASSETS
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27 July 2018
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BP ACQUISITION OF BHP’S US ONSHORE ASSETS
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Group Head of Investor Relations
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Forward-looking statements - cautionary statement In order to utilize the ‘safe harbor’ provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the ‘PSLRA’), BP is providing the following cautionary statement. This presentation and the associated slides and discussion contain forward-looking statements – that is, statements related to future, not past events – relating to the acquisition of BHP’s Permian, Eagle Ford and Haynesville assets, including statements regarding the amount and timing of the consideration and how it will be funded; plans and estimates of net investment; plans and estimates of optimization, growth options and synergies; the potential for significant value creation including capital efficiency, optimised development and additional resource potential, with further upside at higher prices; plans and expectations regarding production and resources and their growth and growth in returns and free cash flow; plans and expectations regarding growing sustainable free cash flow and distributions to shareholders over the long term; the strategy to grow gas and advantaged oil; plans and expectations regarding the financial framework and accommodating the transaction within the existing financial frame, including in relation to organic capital expenditure, gearing within a 20-30% band and the expectation that ROACE will exceed 10% by 2021; expectation that the transaction will be accretive on an earnings and cash flow basis; expectations
involve risks and uncertainties because they depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of BP. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including the actions of regulators and the timing of the receipt of governmental and regulatory approvals, the timing of bringing new fields onstream, future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, OPEC quota restrictions, operational problems, general economic conditions, political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world, changes in laws and governmental regulations, regulatory or legal actions including the types of enforcement action pursued and the nature of remedies sought, exchange rate fluctuations, development and use of new technology, the success or otherwise of partnering, the actions of competitors, trading partners, creditors, rating agencies and others, natural disasters and adverse weather conditions, changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions, wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage, and other factors discussed in the “Cautionary Statement” in BP’s Annual Report and Form 20-F 2017 as filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. This document contains references to non-proved resources and production outlooks based on non-proved resources that the SEC's rules prohibit us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures in our Form 20-F. This form is available on our website at www.bp.com. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330 or by logging on to their website at www.sec.gov Recon
ns to to GAAP - This presentation also contains financial information which is not presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). A quantitative reconciliation of this information to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP can be found on our website at www.bp.com. July 2018
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Chief Financial Officer TRANS NSACTION ON OVERVIE IEW
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Growing sustainable free cash flow and distributions to shareholders
THE BP PROPOSITION Building on proven operating capability and adding to incumbent positions Safe, reliable and efficient execution
A distinctive portfolio fit for a changing world
Growing gas and advantaged oil and actively managing the existing portfolio Value based, disciplined investment and cost focus
Accommodated within existing financial framework Creates value and is accretive for shareholders Acquisition of BHP’s US onshore assets
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(1) $55/bbl Brent price (2017 real), $3.00/mmBtu Henry Hub (2017 real), $14/bbl RMM (flat) (2) Earnings per share, operating cash flow per share and free cash flow per share are accretive post integration. Calculated at $55 /bbl WTI (2018 real), $2.75 /mmbtu Henry Hub (2018 real) (3) Free cash flow proxy = Underlying EBITDA + DD&A + EWO – organic capital expenditure, at $55/bbl Brent (2017 real) (4) Deferred consideration paid in cash in six equal instalments over six months following completion. BP intends to finance this through equity issued over the duration of the instalments
▪ Access to liquids-rich Permian and premium Eagle Ford and Haynesville basins ▪ Reinforces position as a top
▪ Over $350m pre-tax annual synergies
~190mboed
production
~470,000
acres
~4.6bn
boe resource
$15-17bn
gearing
>10%
ROACE1 by 2021
▪ Accretive to earnings and cash flow per share2 ▪ Proceeds from divestments to fund up to $5-6bn further buybacks ▪ Additional $1bn pre-tax free cash flow3 in 2021
Purchase price
Additional divestments
Net investment
Cash consideration
deferred4
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Purchase price Barlow assets Synergies Capital efficiency Additional resource potential Environment $45 WTI $2.25 HH $65 WTI $3.25 HH $55 WTI $2.75 HH BHP US
assets Further upside potential Base case $10.5bn
Attractive NPV1 and near-term value delivery
Upstream Midstream
(1) NPV = Net present value at 10% discount rate, $55/bbl WTI, with a Midland discount of $7/bbl near term and around $2/bbl longer term, $2.75/mmBtu Henry Hub (2018 real). Indicative values only
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(1) $55/bbl Brent price (2017 real), $3.00/mmBtu Henry Hub (2017 real), $14/bbl RMM (flat) (2) Earnings per share, operating cash flow per share and free cash flow per share are accretive post integration. Calculated at $55 /bbl WTI (2018 real), $2.75 /mmBtu Henry Hub (2018 real)
Organic capital expenditure maintained at $15-17bn Capital discipline Gearing remains within 20-30% Balance sheet strength 2021 ROACE target remains >10% at $55/bbl1 Focus on returns Accretive to earnings and cash flow per share measures2 Value creation
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Chief Executive, Upstream UPSTREAM
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Onshore
model Synergies >$350m Capital efficiency
in mid-2020s
SAFETY QUALITY EXECUTION GROWING GAS AND ADVANTAGED OIL RETURNS LED GROWTH
High graded gas portfolio >4bn bbls high quality resources
+$1bn pre-tax free cash flow2 in 2021 Oil price leverage
& capital flexibility
>20% IRR1
with
(1) Single well post-tax IRRs, calculated at $55/bbl WTI and $2.75/mmBtu Henry Hub (2018 real) (2) Free cash flow proxy = Underlying EBITDA + DD&A + EWO – organic capital expenditure, at $55/bbl Brent (2017 real)
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11 3 6 9 12 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1
Development costs
$/bbl
Unit production costs
$/bbl
Headcount
‘000s 35%
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H2018
54%
3 6 9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
35%
1
(1) Estimated full-year 2018 based on current Lower 48 portfolio
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20 40 60 80 100 120 2016 2017 2018 2019 Gross production (mboed)
Haynesville production
Forecast Actuals
(1) Post-tax IRR, calculated at $2.75/mmBtu Henry Hub (2018 real)
BP Lower 48: Texas Haynesville-Bossier
▪ Production from 0 to 50mboed in 2.5 years ▪ Projected 2018 exit rate of ~90mboed
Secured ultra deep gas opportunity in 2016
▪ Engineered for high porosity & high pressure shale ▪ Operated 7 rigs in 2Q18
Developed novel completion techniques
▪ Post-tax IRR1 30-45% ▪ Development cost $3.45/boe
Performance metrics
Gross production
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2 4 6 8 10 12 20 40 60 80 100 Gas rate (mmscfd) Months on production
BP vs previous operator production2
Previous
BP
(1) Post-tax IRR, calculated at $2.75/mmBtu Henry Hub, $55/bbl WTI (2014 real), (2) Normalized to 6,000’ long laterals
Previous
BP-Lewis Energy JV: Eagle Ford farm-out
▪ 22 wells drilled before farm-out ▪ 21 BP-Lewis Energy JV wells drilled after farm-out
Secured farm-out in 2014
▪ Increased recovery 225% ▪ Increased initial rates 110% ▪ Increased cumulative gas at 40 months by 130%
Developed novel completion techniques
▪ Post-tax IRR1 35-45% ▪ Development cost $4.60/bbl
Performance metrics
BP
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(1) Free cash flow proxy = Underlying RCPBIT+DD&A+EWO-Organic capital expenditure, 2021 at $55/bbl Brent 2017 real (2) 2016-2021 compound annual growth rate
2016 2017 2021
14-15 Upstream Guidance Acquisition Impact
2021 pre-tax free cash flow1 Organic capital expenditure 2016-2021 production CAGR2 $13-14bn $13-14bn +$1bn Free cash flow – pre-tax1
$bn
High quality resources $1bn
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Chief Financial Officer SUMMARY
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(1) $55/bbl Brent price (2017 real), $3.00/mmtBu Henry Hub (2017 real), $14/bbl RMM (flat) (2) Earnings per share, operating cash flow per share and free cash flow per share are accretive post integration. Calculated at $55 /bbl WTI (2018 real), $2.75 /mmBtu Henry Hub (2018 real) (3) Free cash flow proxy = Underlying EBITDA + DD&A + EWO – organic capital expenditure, at $55/bbl Brent (2017 real) (4) Deferred consideration paid in cash in six equal instalments over six months following completion. BP intends to finance this through equity issued over the duration of the instalments
▪ Access to liquids-rich Permian and premium Eagle Ford and Haynesville basins ▪ Reinforces position as a top
▪ Over $350m pre-tax annual synergies
~190mboed
production
~470,000
acres
~4.6bn
boe resource
$15-17bn
gearing
>10%
ROACE1 by 2021
▪ Accretive to earnings and cash flow per share2 ▪ Proceeds from divestments to fund up to $5-6bn further buybacks ▪ Additional $1bn pre-tax free cash flow3 in 2021
Purchase price
Additional divestments
Net investment
Cash consideration
deferred4
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Group Head of Inve vesto stor r Relati ations
Chief Execu cutive, ive, Upstream am
Chief Execu cutive, ive, Lower 48 Chief Finan ancial cial Office cer
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ACQUISITION OF BHP’S US ONSHOR ORE ASSETS
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2-Year Volume
MBOE (20:1) @ 5000’
>175 125-175 75-125 25-75 <25
▪ Material position in heart of Delaware’s over-pressured and liquids-rich window ▪ Stacked benches (Bone Springs, Wolfcamp A, B, C/D)
▪ Significant potential for capital efficiency improvement with multilateral drilling ▪ BP Lower 48 team experienced in infrastructure development and liquids management
(1) Estimated post-tax IRRs for new wells at $55/bbl WTI, $2.75/mmBtu Henry Hub (2018 real)
Current production
Post-tax IRRs1 Gross drilling locations Acreage
mboed
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▪ Core acreage in both the liquids-rich Karnes Trough and Eagle Ford wet gas window ▪ Builds on BP Lower 48’s experience in the Eagle Ford ▪ Opportunity to develop with multilaterals in Eagle Ford benches and Austin Chalk ▪ Can reduce cost with Intelligent Operations model for base production and midstream
2-Year Volume
MBOE (20:1) @ 5000’
>325 250-325 175-250 125-175 75-125 25-75 <25
(1) Estimated IRRs for new wells at $55/bbl WTI, $2.75/mmBtu Henry Hub (2018 real)
Current production
Post-tax IRRs1 Gross drilling locations Acreage
mboed
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▪ Doubles BP Lower 48’s production in the Haynesville, and more than triples acreage position ▪ Builds on BP Lower 48’s material expansion of the Haynesville – the most revenue generative gas play in the US ▪ Opportunity to transfer L48 completion technology ▪ Leverages economies of scale with existing
(1) Estimated post-tax IRRs for new wells at $55/bbl WTI, $2.75/mmBtu Henry Hub (2018 real)
Current production
Post-tax IRRs1 Gross drilling locations Acreage
mboed