BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017 Ivan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017 Ivan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017 Ivan Glasenberg CEO Important notice concerning this document including forward looking statements This document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, forward looking


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BofAML Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference 2017

Ivan Glasenberg CEO

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SLIDE 2

Important notice concerning this document including forward looking statements This document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward looking statements” which are prospective in nature. These forward looking statements may be identified by the use of forward looking terminology, or the negative thereof such as “outlook”, "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "continues", "assumes", "is subject to", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "aims", "forecasts", "risks", "intends", "positioned", "predicts", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variations of such words or comparable terminology and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "should", “shall”, "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Such statements are qualified in their entirety by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations. Forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts, but rather on current predictions, expectations, beliefs, opinions, plans, objectives, goals, intentions and projections about future events, results of operations, prospects, financial condition and discussions of strategy. By their nature, forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Glencore’s control. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and may and often do differ materially from actual results. Important factors that could cause these uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those discussed in Glencore’s 2016 Annual Report. Neither Glencore nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this document will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which only speak as of the date of this document. Other than in accordance with its legal or regulatory obligations (including under the UK Listing Rules and the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and the Listing Requirements of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Limited), Glencore is not under any obligation and Glencore and its affiliates expressly disclaim any intention, obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This document shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the business or affairs of Glencore since the date of this document or that the information contained herein is correct as at any time subsequent to its date. No statement in this document is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this document should be interpreted to mean that earnings per Glencore share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per Glencore share. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities. The making of this document does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities. The companies in which Glencore plc directly and indirectly has an interest are separate and distinct legal entities. In this document, “Glencore”, “Glencore group” and “Group” are used for convenience only where references are made to Glencore plc and its subsidiaries in general. These collective expressions are used for ease of reference only and do not imply any other relationship between the companies. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer collectively to members of the Group or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies.

2

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SLIDE 3

Summary

Lomas Bayas copper mine, Chile

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Summary

  • The right commodities for the future
  • The commodities that fuel economic growth are changing as key emerging markets mature

– The transition from early to mid and late cycle commodities benefits our core assets (copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc, thermal coal)

  • Government policies and transformational shifts in technology have accelerated the economic breakeven point for electric

vehicles and energy storage systems

  • The electric vehicle revolution is underway and its impact is likely to be felt faster than expected – potentially creating material

new sources of demand for enabling underlying commodities (copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium and manganese)

  • Investment in new frontiers will be necessary to ensure supply is up to the challenge
  • Sustaining copper mine supply is increasingly challenging – mined grades continue to fall, sector reinvestment has collapsed,

exploration success has been limited and the future pipeline of projects is at pre-supercycle lows

  • Higher commodity prices and a willingness to access resources in new geographies will be required to ensure supply can feed

demand over the longer run

  • Well positioned for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead
  • Our highly cash generative defensive business model, including marketing, adapts quickly to changing conditions
  • Relentless focus on maximising value creation through balancing business reinvestment/growth and shareholder returns
  • Backed by a world-class management team, entrepreneurial culture and track record of value creation

4

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SLIDE 5

The right commodities for the future

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From despair early last year …

6

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… to emerging optimism in the new year …

7

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SLIDE 8

… to an uncertain outlook today …

8

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SLIDE 9

… there is still scope for cautious optimism in the short-term

  • Despite market concerns around Chinese monetary

tightening, a repeat of the extreme weakness seen in 2015 appears less likely given stronger external demand and higher private sector investment

  • Infrastructure contractor order data indicate positive Chinese demand

momentum through 2017

  • Key regional manufacturing data remain positive,

European manufacturing PMI at six year highs

  • Forecast 2017 demand growth remains positive
  • Supply disruptions/cutbacks support improving

fundamentals for most base metals and thermal coal Strong Q1 Chinese infrastructure contractor order intake(1)

  • 20%

0% 20% 40% 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 y/y growth 4-quarter trailing growth

9

Expansionary manufacturing conditions persist(3)

46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 USA Eurozone China

2017 demand forecasts remain positive(2)

0% 2% 4% 6% Al Cu Zn Pb Ni Iron Ore T.Coal 2003-2015 CAGR 2011-2016 CAGR 2017F

Notes: (1) Citi Research, 4 May 2017, 1Q’17 order intake up 45%y/y, Infrastructure contractor order intake in China. (2) Annual demand growth, Source: Wood Mackenzie, Morgan Stanley, Citi Research, Glencore

  • estimates. (3) Manufacturing PMI data, Markit for USA and Eurozone, Caxin for China.
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SLIDE 10

Longer term fundamentals are more compelling: The commodities that fuel maturing economies are changing …

  • Not all commodities are equal,

differentiation is increasingly important

  • Key emerging markets are

maturing

  • The early cycle commodities that

underpinned the supercycle boom in fixed asset investment are being displaced as demand patterns shift in favour of mid and late cycle commodities in line with rising levels

  • f income per capita
  • Our “Tier 1” commodity

portfolio of metals, thermal coal and agricultural products is well placed to benefit from this transition

10

20 40 60 80 100 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

$US GDP per capita (real 2010)

Mid cycle Late cycle GLEN Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4

Early Cycle Mid Cycle Late Cycle Iron Ore, Coking coal, Manganese

Cobalt, Oil/Gas, PGMs Diamonds, Thermal Coal, Agricultural products

Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Aluminium, Lead

Glencore most exposed to mid and late cycle commodities(2) Illustrative commodity intensity curves(1)

Early cycle

Commodities weighted by contribution to 2018F EBITDA

Notes: (1) Stylised intensity curves based on developed countries, indexed to 100 at maximum. (2) Source UBS, commodities weighted by contribution to 2018F EBITDA

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SLIDE 11
  • China’s dominance of global commodities

demand is not without precedent

  • The UK and USA accounted for levels of demand during

their industrialisiation phases that were higher than China’s share of global demand today

  • The rapid industrialisation and urbanisation of developing

economies represents a material enlargement of the global consumer base that will underpin the transition away from early cycle commodities as incomes rise

  • The looming EV/ESS revolution looks set to

unlock material new sources of demand for enabling underlying commodities

  • Rapid technology advances in battery chemistry along with

strong government support is accelerating the economic break even point of electric vehicles vs combustion engines

  • Emerging transportation sector goals aimed largely at

pollution/carbon reduction can only be met with new forms

  • f mobility

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1800 1809 1818 1827 1836 1845 1854 1863 1872 1881 1890 1899 1908 1917 1926 1935 1944 1953 1962 1971 1980 1989 1998 2007 2016

11

Share of global copper demand(1)

UK USA China

… supporting a positive long-term demand outlook

Source: (1) 18 April 2017, Bernstein European Metals and Mining: What if China were the US?, page 4.

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SLIDE 12

The electric vehicle revolution needs our commodities

  • The electric vehicle revolution is happening and

its impact is likely to be felt faster than expected

  • Virtually all automotive players now accelerating their

investment in / adoption of EV technologies

  • Governments mandating increasingly aggressive emission

targets that can only be met by alternative forms of mobility

  • Supply chains are evolving rapidly with battery

producers becoming critical players

  • EV/ESS transition will require a significant change in material

flows of the global economy including the installation / rebuild / replacement of supporting EV infrastructure

  • China emerging as the global leader in EV
  • Supported by a $361bn investment target in renewable energy

generation by 2020(4)

  • Targeting 5 million cumulative EV sales and 4.8 million

charging points by 2020(5)

  • 8% of 2018 vehicle sales potentially required to be

domestically produced EV. 2016 vehicle sales of 28 million units (EV:300k)(6) 12

The impact of electrification per vehicle: c.160kg Cu

Car (EV-ICEV)(7) + c.100kg Copper

(Contained in Cu motors and inverters for motors and charging

Battery (250kg)(7)

(NCM 1,1,1)

+ c.38kg Copper + c.11kg Cobalt + c.11kg Nickel Charging Point(5) + c.20kg Copper

  • Ambitious global targets …
  • Major countries targeting cumulative sales of 13.4 million

BEV/PHEV vehicles by 2020, and an estimated c.52 million by 2025(5)

  • … will have an outsize impact on metals markets
  • 2020e: +c.373kt Cu demand, +c.40kt Ni demand(5)
  • 2025e: +1.65Mt Cu demand, +c.210kt Ni demand(5)
  • 2035e: Rapid adoption scenario where c.95% of global vehicle

sales are EV would require: +20Mt Cu, +1.8Mt Ni, +679kt Co(7)

  • Higher commodity prices are required to

incentivise reinvestment to offset a declining resource and aging asset base

Source: (1) Autocar, 27 February 2017, Norway to phase out petrol and diesel cars by 2025. (2) The Guardian, 18 April 2016, Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol and diesel ban by 2025. (3) The Independent, 1 May 2017, India to make every single car electric by 2030 in bid to tackle pollution that kills millions. (4) Reuters, 5 January 2017, China to plow $361 billion into renewable fuel by 2020. (5) Exane BNP Paribas, 18 April 2017, Electric dreams (are made of these). (6) FT, 30 April 2017, Carmakers grapple with China’s electric vehicle drive. (7) Bernstein European Metals and Mining, 18 April 2017, The Electric Revolution, Part 2: Raw Material Bottlenecks and commodity winners in the green economy.

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SLIDE 13

The supply challenge

Copper anodes, Townsville refinery, Australia

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SLIDE 14

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E

Sustaining copper mine supply is progressively more challenging

0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018e 2022e 2026e 2030e 2034e 2038e

14

Mined copper grades continue to decline(1) … Sector reinvestment has collapsed (1,2) …

Average copper grade processed

Source: (1) Bernstein European Metals and Mining, 8 March 2017, Copper & Gold – Not a production wall … it’s a production cliff! (2) Selected producers includes Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Glencore, Vale, First Quantum, South 32, Antofagasta. Estimates for 2016-2018 based on company guidance and approved projects only.

Aggregated capex/EBITDA for selected major producers

Average

Exploration has been increasingly unsuccessful (1) …

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1901 1920 1939 1958 1977 1996 2015

Growth rate in global copper resource base by year of discovery – 5yr y/y rolling average y/y change

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SLIDE 15

50 100 150 200 2000 4000 6000 8000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sustaining copper mine supply is progressively more challenging

15

5000 10000 15000 20000 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Supply is peaking in 2018 and declines thereafter at 3.5% CAGR with no reinvestment (3)

$bn capex copper

Copper capex (LHS) Copper mine supply

Source: (1) Copper mine project pipeline comprises the total production volume of projects categorised as highly probable and probable by Wood Mackenzie’s Global copper long-term outlooks from 2001 to 2016, indexed change from 2001. (2) Annual average LME cash copper price, source Wood Mackenzie and Bloomberg. (3) Bernstein European Metals and Mining, 8 March 2017, Copper & Gold – Not a production wall … it’s a production cliff!

LME Copper (LHS $/t)(2) Copper mine project pipeline (RHS indexed 2001=100)(1)

Copper mine project pipeline now below pre-supercycle lows

kt copper

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SLIDE 16

A declining resource base and aging assets will require miners to access new resources in key new geographies to meet future demand

16

Mexico

Copper, Iron Ore, Thermal Coal, Zinc

Colombia

Thermal Coal

Ecuador

Copper

Venezuela

Copper, Thermal Coal, Nickel

Turkey

Copper

Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Guinea

Iron Ore

Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon

Oil & Gas

Mozambique

Thermal Coal

South Africa

Iron Ore, Thermal Coal, Coking Coal, Zinc, FeCr, Nickel, Diamonds

Tanzania

Nickel

Panama

Copper

Ukraine

Iron Ore, Thermal Coal, Coking Coal, Agriculture

Republic of Congo

Iron Ore

DR Congo

Copper, Cobalt, Diamonds

Botswana

Copper, Nickel, Diamonds

Russia

Copper, Nickel, Iron Ore, Thermal Coal, Coking Coal, Zinc, Agriculture

Mongolia

Copper, Thermal Coal, Coking Coal

Iran

Copper, Iron Ore, Zinc

Philippines, Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia

Copper, Nickel

Indonesia

Thermal coal, Coking coal, Nickel

India

Copper, Iron Ore, Zinc, Thermal coal, Nickel, Agriculture

China

Copper, Thermal Coal, Coking Coal, Iron Ore, Zinc, Nickel, Aluminium, Agriculture

Brazil

Copper, Iron Ore, Nickel, Agriculture

Argentina

Copper, Agriculture

Poland

Copper, Agriculture

Zambia

Copper

Kazakhstan

Copper, Zinc, Iron Ore, FeCr,

  • il
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SLIDE 17

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We already have a footprint in many of these countries (and a track record of navigating challenging jurisdictions) …

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SLIDE 18

…comprising a large-scale low-cost asset portfolio of the right “Tier 1” commodities …

18

2016 Copper Cobalt Zinc Lead Nickel FeCr Coal Glencore own source production(1) 1.4Mt 28kt 1.1Mt 294kt 115kt 1.5Mt 125Mt total

115.4Mt Thermal

Idled capacity c.0.4Mt c.0.20kt c.0.5Mt c.100kt Global mine supply(2) 20Mt c.97kt 12.4Mt 5.3Mt 2.0Mt c.10.8Mt 864Mt

Thermal Coal

Production ranking(3) Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Top 3 Full mine cost(4) 87c/lb By-product 16c/lb

  • 5c/lb with Au Cr By-product

265c/lb $18/t margin Average price(1) 220c/lb $12/lb 95c/lb 85c/lb 436c/lb 90c/lb $57/t Cost quartile(5) 1st By-product 1st By-product 1st/2nd 1st

High margin seaborne supplier

Marketing volumes sold(1) 3.5Mt c.38kt 2Mt 900kt 221kt 2.2Mt 108Mt

Source: (1) 2016 Preliminary results. (2) Source Morgan Stanley – The Price Deck 2Q 2017 for 2016 total Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni and Thermal Coal supply. Macquarie Commodities Compendium, 19 January 2017 for FeCr and Co. (3) Wood Mackenzie for Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn. SNL for Co. AME for Thermal coal. Heinz H Pariser for FeCr. Glencore estimate for coal. (4) See slide 21 of Preliminary Results 2016 presentation for basis of calculation. Full mine cost includes all cash costs to allow reconciliation and generation of EBITDA. (5) Glencore estimates

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SLIDE 19

… underpinned by a highly cash generative marketing business with global reach

  • Our marketing activities involve the physical

movement of commodities to where they are in most demand

  • We generate earnings as a fee-like income from

physical asset handling and arbitrage, as well as blending and optimisation opportunities

  • Lower sensitivity to commodity prices and volatility
  • Marketing is countercyclical from a cash flow perspective, as

funding requirements are highly linked to commodity prices. The business requires less working capital during periods of falling prices, which helps mitigate the generally negative effects of lower prices on our industrial assets

  • Virtually all our marketed volumes are hedged or pre-sold to

minimise price exposure. Our use of hedging instruments results in profitability being overwhelmingly determined by volume activity and associated value-added supply chain margins, and other marketing conditions, rather than by the absolute flat price itself

  • A low cost of capital, stable cost base and low

capex requirements underpin resilient and high returns on equity

19

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 F

Long-term Guidance range: +2017: $2.2-$3.2bn

Marketing Adjusted EBIT ($M)

Guidance: $2.3bn to $2.6bn

Reduction to reflect the sale

  • f 50% of

Glencore Agriculture

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SLIDE 20

Investing for the future

Drag line, Tweefontein coal mine, South Africa

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SLIDE 21

Investing for the future

Earnings genuinely diversified by activity, commodity, currency and geography (1)

21

Leading low cost portfolio

  • f “Tier 1” commodities

positioned to feed the changing needs of maturing economies

  • Key supply positions in the

commodities (copper / cobalt / nickel) that underpin the looming EV/ESS revolution

  • Major producer/trader of other mid and

late cycle commodities such as zinc, thermal coal and agricultural products

  • Significant copper and zinc capacity

awaiting restart

North America South America South Africa CIS Australia Europe Other Africa Copper Zinc Ferro alloys Agri Oil Marketing Nickel Coal

Notes: (1) 2016 Adjusted EBITDA split calculated pre-coal hedging impact and corporate overheads. Geographic split based on operating asset EBITDA.

Well positioned for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead

  • Highly cash generative

defensive business model, including marketing, that adapts quickly to changing conditions

  • Relentless focus on maximising

value creation through balancing business reinvestment/growth and shareholder returns

  • Backed by a world-class

management team, entrepreneurial culture and track record of value creation

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SLIDE 22

22

Power generation, Raglan Nickel, Canada

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SLIDE 23

Historical sector performance

Nickel crowns, Nikkelverk, Norway

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SLIDE 24

Post 2006 – sector chased expected volume growth

15 20 25 30 35 40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2022F

  • Excessive focus on demand forecasting
  • Metal demand assumed to almost double 2005-2020
  • Emerging market urbanisation
  • 2x long-term historic growth trend
  • Bubble charts became the norm
  • Many shareholders/analysts were cheerleaders
  • Increasingly marginal projects proposed and approved
  • “If I don’t someone else will” supply mantra
  • Fear of missing out on higher prices/market share
  • Market rewarded growth pipelines however tenuous
  • 8%-12% CAGR volume growth targeted
  • To match expected volume growth
  • Everyone else’s supply assumed to be “constrained” amid

extreme shortages of people/mills/trucks etc

  • Managements failed to notice the contradiction

24

The global copper market was forecast to double in size by 2020 (Mt Cu)

2008 Forecast global copper market (1) 2016 Q4 Forecast global copper market (2)

Notes: (1) Source industry peer presentation. (2) Wood Mackenzie Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2016, annual copper demand

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SLIDE 25

Resulting in a sustained period of over-investment …

25

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Precious: $211bn Base Metals: $206bn Bulks: $149bn Diversifieds: $496bn

Sector invested more than $1 trillion of capex(1) ...

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

… and significantly increased supply in most commodities(2) …

+110% Aluminium +80% Iron ore +79% Thermal coal +72% Lead +79% Coking coal +47% Copper +47% Nickel +45% Zinc

Notes: (1) Cumulative capex from 2003 segmented by company type, Source: Citi Research, Morgan Stanley. (2) Annual supply indexed to 2003, Source Citi, Morgan Stanley, Wood Mackenzie, USGS

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SLIDE 26

… leading to sustained deflation 2011-2015 …

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

26

… helping to lower mining unit costs (1) ... … along with commodity prices (2) …

Copper Iron ore Zinc Thermal coal Copper Aluminium Nickel Met Coal Iron ore Thermal Coal Zinc

Notes: (1) C1 cash costs (50th percentile) indexed to 2003, Source Bernstein, Wood Mackenzie, Morgan Stanley. (2) Indexed to 2003, Source: Citi, Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, Wood Mackenzie. (3) Sector annual free cash flow from 2003 to 2015 defined as operating cash flow less reported capex. Source Citi Research, Factset

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SLIDE 27

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Aluminium Copper Zinc Lead Nickel Iron Ore Thermal Coal 2003-2015 CAGR 2011-2016 CAGR

27

Notes: (1) Sector annual free cash flow from 2003 to 2015 defined as operating cash flow less reported capex. Source Citi Research, Factset. (2) Annual demand growth, Source: Wood Mackenzie, Morgan Stanley, Citi Research, Glencore estimates.

  • 20

20 40 60 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

… generating just $370bn of free cash flow(1) …

$bn operating cash flow less capex

… despite demand growth (2)

… and weak cash flows, despite healthy demand growth

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SLIDE 28

Appendix

Cobalt, Mutanda mine, DRC

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SLIDE 29

Our business model We move commodities from where they are plentiful to where they are needed … … sourcing physical volumes from our industrial assets and third parties that we market around the world … … to generate margin

  • pportunities that underpin a

high-return low-risk business with a 40+ year track record of profitability

29

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SLIDE 30

Fully integrated from mine to customer

  • Scale and commodity diversity
  • Proven ability to respond rapidly to

changing industry dynamics

  • Core competences in commodity

marketing, logistics, risk management and financing

  • Leading industrial asset portfolio of

the right commodities for the future along with strong growth prospects

  • Diversified position across multiple

commodities, suppliers and customers

  • World-class management team,

entrepreneurial culture and track record of value creation

30

Exploration Mining / Producing Processing / Refining

Blending & Optimising / Logistics

Marketing & Trading Exploration Mining / Producing Processing / Refining

Blending & Optimising / Logistics

Marketing & Trading

Traditional Miner Trader

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SLIDE 31

A strong investment grade balance sheet

  • Capital structure repositioned to provide greater

balance sheet strength and flexibility

  • Net funding and Net debt reduced by $14.7bn and $14.1bn

respectively to $32.6bn and $15.5bn over the last 18 months

  • $2.6bn of executed bond tenders in October and December 2016

caps post-2017 maturities at c.$3bn in any one year (down from $4-$5bn)

  • Committed available liquidity of $16.7bn at end of 2016,

comfortably covers bond maturities for the next five years

  • Strong BBB/Baa ratings target and maintenance

remains a top priority

  • Proactive actions in 2015/2016 demonstrate our commitment
  • Credit ratings upgraded to BBB (positive) /Baa2 (stable)
  • Targeting maximum 2x Net debt/Adjusted EBITDA

through the cycle

  • Delivery of robust cash flow coverage ratios at year end 2016:

– FFO to Net Debt of 50% – Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA of 1.51x

  • Optimised capital structure provides less risk,

more flexibility and stability of distributions

31

Net debt ($bn) FFO to Net debt

28% 29% 29% 33% 30% 26% 25% 50%

H1 2013 FY 2013 H1 2014 FY 2014 H1 2015 FY 2015 H1 2016 FY 2016

34.8 35.8 37.6 30.5 29.6 25.9 23.6 15.5

H1 2013 FY 2013 H1 2014 FY 2014 H1 2015 FY 2015 H1 2016 FY 2016

49.2 52.2 54.4 49.8 47.3 41.2 39.0 32.6

H1 2013 FY 2013 H1 2014 FY 2014 H1 2015 FY 2015 H1 2016 FY 2016

Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA Net funding ($bn)

2.8 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.9

H1 2013 FY 2013 H1 2014 FY 2014 H1 2015 FY 2015 H1 2016 FY 2016

1.51x

Targeting maximum 2x

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SLIDE 32

Maximising value creation through capital allocation

Maintain strong BBB/Baa Equity cash flows $1bn fixed Marketing distribution

  • Min. 25%

Industrial distribution M&A + Other

  • Our capital allocation framework balances preservation of our optimal

capital structure along with business reinvestment/growth and shareholder distributions

  • 2017 cash distribution of $1bn, to be paid in equal tranches in H1 and H2

2017

  • 2018 cash distribution (in respect of 2017 cash flows) will comprise:
  • Fixed $1bn base distribution reflecting the resilience, predictability and stability of

Marketing cash flows – Comfortably covered from trough cash flow generation in 2016 and further supported by structurally lower gearing and a longer/smoother bond maturity profile

  • Variable distribution representing a minimum payout of 25% of Industrial free cash

flows

  • Fixed and variable distribution components to be confirmed annually
  • Based on prevailing conditions and outlook
  • Variable distribution percentage potentially increased, as appropriate
  • In context of overall balance sheet requirements, surplus capital position and subject to

prevailing conditions & outlook

  • Cash distribution generally favoured versus buyback given inherent volatility in prices

32

1 2 3 4 5

Notes: (1) Equity cash flows defined as Adjusted EBITDA less tax, interest and other, sustaining and expansionary capex and dividends paid to minorities. (2) Fixed marketing distribution of $1bn represents c.50%

  • f pre-WC Marketing free cash flow, (3) Minimum 25% Variable distribution from Industrial free cash flow. (4) M&A + Other includes consideration around portfolio optimisation, asset monetisation, recycling and

debt reduction. Reinvestment screened against rigorous criteria.

(1) (2) (3) (4)

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SLIDE 33

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Coal, 5.8 Coal, 5.6 5 10 15 20 25 2030 New Policy 2013 Actual Renewable Bio Energy Hydro Nuclear

33

Sources: (1) Glencore analysis. (2) IEA WEO 2016. 2030 New Policy Scenario reflects policies that governments have implemented by mid-2015, as well as those that the IEA expects governments to implement over the next 25

  • years. (3) Btce : billion tonnes of coal equivalent – standardised coal quantity using coal with energy content of 7000kcal/kg or 29.31 GJ/t. Converted to metric tonnes based on global average coal energy of 4850kcal/kg nar. (4)

Platts World Electric Power Plant Database, Glencore analysis, IEA WEO 2016. Information about how our business operates, our position on climate change and how we are managing the opportunities and challenges of climate change across our business are detailed in http://www.glencore.com/assets/sustainability/doc/sd_reports/GLEN-Climate-change-considerations-for-our-business-20160613.pdf

Global primary energy demand (Btce)(2,3)

19.3Btce 23.1Btce

Installed coal generating capacity (GW) (4)

China North America Europe India Other Asia Mediterranean

Japan Taiwan

Asia dominates future coal demand

  • Drivers of seaborne coal demand

in Asia well known

  • Supply deficit supports existing

assets and demand for high- energy coal

  • Glencore assets well positioned
  • n the industry cost curve
  • Global energy demand growth

requires all fuel sources

  • IEA modelling of nationally determined

contributions shows absolute coal demand continues to grow to meet the needs of growing populations, especially in Asia

  • Overall portfolio well positioned to

respond to climate change

  • pportunities (nickel, cobalt,

copper)

  • Board-level commitment to

identify opportunities to reduce GHG footprint and respond to risks posed by climate change

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Industry natural supply decline at 5% p.a.

Seaborne coal supply decays rapidly without further investment (Mt)(1)

Glencore portfolio

29% 25%

Glencore’s coal portfolio resilience

(2)

slide-34
SLIDE 34

We are well positioned for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead

34

Earnings diversified by commodity and geography(1)

North America South America South Africa CIS Australia Europe Other Africa Coal Copper Zinc Nickel Ferro alloys Agri Oil Marketing

The right commodity mix to feed the changing needs of maturing economies Outstanding costs for our key commodities – 2017F(2) Significant growth potential: capacity awaiting restart Well capitalised asset base: modest go forward capex Strong IG balance sheet: less risk/more stability Maximizing value creation through capital allocation FCF generative across the cycle at spot prices on an annualised basis(3)

Cu

+c.400ktpa

Zn

+c.500ktpa

Cu Ni Zn Coal $4.4bn $2.8bn $0.6bn $3.8bn Spot EBITDA $14.6bn Spot FCF $6.9bn

50% ND/Adj.EBITDA FFO/ND

2013 2014 2015 2016

1.5x

Maintain strong BBB/Baa Equity cash flows $1bn fixed Marketing distribution

  • Min. 25%

Industrial distribution M&A + Other

Cu Zn Ni

Thermal Coal

89c/lb 247c/lb

$28/t

margin @ $44/t

Notes: (1) 2016 Adjusted EBITDA split calculated pre-coal hedging impact and corporate overheads. Geographic split based on operating asset EBITDA. (2) See slide 21 for production volumes underlying 2017 cost forecasts. (3) Key commodity department spot annualised EBITDA calculations based on costs on slide 11 and production from slide 21. LME spot prices as of 20 February 2017 for metals, Cal17 NEWC forward curve for thermal coal as at 20 February 2017. Spot annualised FCF calculated from Spot EBITDA after deducting cash taxes and interest of $3.6bn, capex of $4.1bn. Excludes working capital changes and distributions.

  • Key supply positions in the

commodities (cobalt/nickel) that underpin the battery chemistry likely to power future EV and storage batteries

  • Major producer of other mid

and late cycle commodities such as copper, zinc and thermal coal

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2006 2007 2008 2009pf 2010pf 2011pf 2012pf 2013pf 2014 2015 2016 +2017

c.$4bn

  • plus multi-commodity brownfield

growth options when the time is right

  • 10c/lb

10c/lb pre Au

  • Ind. Other

$0.6bn Mktg $2.4bn

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Our values

Safety

Our first priority in the workplace is to protect the health and well-being of all of our people. We take a proactive approach to health and safety; our goal is continuous improvement in the prevention of occupational disease and injuries

Entrepreneurialism

Our approach fosters the highest level of professionalism, personal ownership and entrepreneurial spirit in all our people while never compromising on their safety and well-being. This is important to

  • ur success and the superior returns we aim to achieve for all our stakeholders

Simplicity

We aim to achieve our key deliverables efficiently as a path to industry-leading returns, while maintaining a clear focus on excellence, quality, sustainability and continuous improvement in everything we do

Responsibility

We recognise that our activities can have an impact on our society and the environment. We care profoundly about our performance in relation to environmental protection, human rights and health and safety

Openness

We value open relationships and communication based on integrity, co-operation, transparency and mutual benefit, with our people, our customers, our suppliers, governments and society in general

35

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Glencore in numbers

36

Global footprint Highly Diversified Unique Market insight Breadth

  • f scale