Biofuel Transitions in S.E. Asia : Thailands Leading Example Samai - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Biofuel Transitions in S.E. Asia : Thailands Leading Example Samai - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Biofuel Transitions in S.E. Asia : Thailands Leading Example Samai Jai-Indr, Ph.D. Energy Specialist, Energy Standing Committee, House of Representatives, Ministry of Defense, Bangkok 22 nd July 2010 Samai@rocketmail.com Thailands

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SLIDE 1

Biofuel Transitions in S.E. Asia : Thailand’s Leading Example

Samai Jai-Indr, Ph.D. Energy Specialist, Energy Standing Committee, House of Representatives, Ministry of Defense, Bangkok 22nd July 2010 Samai@rocketmail.com

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SLIDE 2

Thailand’s Economy in 2009

  • 65 Millions Population ~1% of World; Per

capita 4,338$, (PPP : 8,500$)

  • GDP US$273 Billions (553.4 Bn, PPP)
  • Agriculture:

– 11.4 % of GDP – 40 % of Employment

  • Manufacturing:

– 44.5 % of GDP – 20 % of Employment

  • 1st Import Item : Crude Oil (15.6% of import

bill)

  • Major Agricultural Products & World

Rankings

– Rice 30.2 MT from 11 M. Ha.(1st Exporter) – Rubber 3.02 MT from 1.76 M. Ha.(1st Producer&Exporter) – Sugarcane 64.4 MT from 1.01 M. Ha.(Export 75%, 2nd) – Cassava 27 MT from 1.17 M. Ha.(Export 80% 1st) – Oil Palm 6.6 MT from 0.42 M. Ha.(3rd Producer)

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SLIDE 3

ASEAN GDP in MUSD, Current Market Prices, Data from ASEAN

Total Population : 583 Millions, Ave. GDP Per Capita : 2,581 USD (GDP PPP 5,320 USD) Total Land Area 4.4 Million Sq.km.

239,134 284,790 364,371 430,855 511,174 161,386 176,207 206,645 246,036 273,666 124,750 137,971 157,237 222,058 107,464 116,640 132,273 167,211 184,120 86,912 98,757 117,457 146,839 166,773 45,544 52,953 60,965 70,965 90,701 186,454

  • 200,000.0

400,000.0 600,000.0 800,000.0 1,000,000.0 1,200,000.0 1,400,000.0 1,600,000.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 20081/

Lao PDR Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Myanmar Viet Nam Philippines Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia

ASEAN Total GDP : 1,506 Billion USD Japan GDP : 5,100 Billion USD (2007) China GDP : 4,200 Billions USD India GDP : 891 Billions USD (2007)

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SLIDE 4

Asia has changed, Thailand has also changed :

  • Economic & Social Integration,
  • Climate Change Impact,
  • The way we live (urbanization) and the

way we work also change,

  • And so do Agriculture : The backbone !
  • Demographic Changes … Aging society

by 2025,

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SLIDE 5

Share of Transportation Fuels in Thailand (Figures in Million Litre/D) Since 2008, All HSD contains 2% of Biodiesel

53.48 53.47 50.17 51.17 48.18 50.27 20.69 17.96 16.27 15.27 10.19 8.41 0.30 1.90 3.50 4.83 9.27 12.24 13.10 14.82 16.29 18.62 21.70 22.23 0.21 0.35 0.76 2.51 4.16 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(Jan-Oct) NGV LPG Gasohol Gasoline Diesel

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SLIDE 6

LPG Demand in K.Tons (source : PTT)

1,225 1,130 1,206 1,348 1,430 1,468 1,502 1,513 1,604 1,721 1,884 2,124 2,231 2,391 284 412 325 461 556 528 588 593 720 708 807 902 1,284 1,717 275 266 314 313 335 399 435 441 450 511 602 658 585 749 112 93 91 162 248 229 210 225 303 459 572 776 666 658

  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553 Transport Industry Petrochemical Household

~20% yoy

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SLIDE 7

Securing Energy Securing Energy Resources Resources Ensure Fair Ensure Fair Energy Price Energy Price Set Renewable Set Renewable Energy as Energy as National Agenda National Agenda

Preserving Environment Preserving Environment coupled with Energy coupled with Energy Development and Development and Consumption Consumption

Encouraging Encouraging Energy Energy Conservation Conservation

1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5

Oil Natural Gas Electricity Alternative Energy E85 Ethanol based oil Bio Diesel NGV Wind /Solar /

Biogas/ Biomass/ Small Hydro energy

Conservation

Measure

Efficiency Standard Encouraging Private

Investment

Price structure

reflect its genuine cost

Develop Services

Quality

Safety in Energy

Related business

Green house

Emission Reduction

Support CDM

Projects Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy

Thailand Thailand’ ’s Energy Policy s Energy Policy

Presented to the Parliament on Dec 30th 2008

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SLIDE 8

Drivers

  • Agriculture Diversification

– Alternative end-use from food/feed market – Less labour intensive – Higher Productivity

  • Rural Job Creation
  • Bridge Building I : ASEAN/GMS Cross-

Border Trades

  • Bridge Building II : Low Carbon Society
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SLIDE 9

From NESDB

1960 2009 2027

Labour Force : 36 M strong, but…. Thailand will move into an ‘aging society’ by 2025, window of opportunity is closing..

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SLIDE 10

Landuse / Arable Area in Thailand 2007 48% Rice Paddy

3,609,998 , 3% 63,551,124 , 48% 27,249,969 , 21% 28,626,646 , 22% 1,236,938 , 1% 1,132,083 , 1% 2,290,823 , 2% 2,593,136 , 2% ที่อยูอาศัย ที่นา ที่พืชไร ที่ไมผลและ ไมยืนตน ที่สวนผักและ ไมดอก ที่ทุงหญา เลี้ยงสัตว ที่รกราง เนื้อที่ทําการ เกษตรอื่นๆ

Rice Paddy Year Crops Perennials

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SLIDE 11

Average Farm Holding

Net Farm Crop Income USD/Ha/Yr Data from OAE, MOAC

  • 500.00

1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00

Rubber Palm Cane Cassava Rice Maize

USD/Ha./Yr.

Average Farm Holding in Thailand ~ 3 Ha./Household Poverty Line = 524 USD/person/yr = 2,100 USD/Household/yr 3.7 3.7 Mln

  • Mln. HH

. HH Poverty Line : 700 USD/Ha./Yr. Poverty Line : 700 USD/Ha./Yr.

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SLIDE 12

Food&Energy Crop Price Statistics in Thailand Data from OAE, MOAC.

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 THB/Kg. Palm FFB THB/Kg Cassava Root THB/Kg Cane Price THB/Kg Palm FFB THB/Kg 1.83 1.8 1.79 1.71 2.05 2.03 2.17 3.37 2.21 1.66 1.19 2.3 2.34 3.11 2.76 2.39 4.07 4.23 3.64 3.88 Cassava Root THB/Kg 0.82 0.77 0.6 0.71 1.16 0.91 0.71 1.3 0.83 0.61 0.77 1.04 0.89 0.88 1.37 1.21 1.38 1.73 1.32 1.93 Cane Price THB/Kg 0.42 0.34 0.38 0.46 0.41 0.39 0.44 0.51 0.47 0.46 0.50 0.44 0.45 0.42 0.58 0.69 0.64 0.62 0.75 0.84 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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SLIDE 13

Energy Crop Plantation Areas in Thailand (M.Ha., data from OAE, MOAC) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 M.Ha.

Oil Palm Cassava Cane

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SLIDE 14

Food/Feed/Fuel Crop at Farmgate Values in Million Baht (Data from OAE,MOAC)

15,021 12,010 12,693 17,712 18,337 17,152 22,528 29,134 31,760 44,229 24,964 24,053 25,475 26,106 34,827 23,918 25,785 32,789 43,962 40,940 7,543 5,549 4,875 9,203 11,472 16,115 13,807 16,049 26,007 38,189

  • 20,000

40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 M.B

OilPalm Cane Cassava

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SLIDE 15

New Equation into the old ag. commodity

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SLIDE 16

New Equation into the old ag. commodity

Oil Palm Price FFB (Data from DIT,MOC)

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Th.B./Kg.

Biodiesel Biodiesel Project initiation Project initiation

15yr REDP 15yr REDP B2 Mandate B2 Mandate

National National Biofuel Biofuel Strategy Strategy

B3 B3 Ma Ma nda nda te te

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SLIDE 17

Sugarcane Area and Production in Thailand (Data : OAE)

  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1 9 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8

  • 10,000

20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Planted areas(1000 rais) Production(1000 tonnes)

6.25 6.25 Rai Rai = 1 Ha. = 1 Ha.

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SLIDE 18

Cassava Area and Production in Thailand (Data:OAE)

  • 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1 9 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8

  • 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Planted areas(1000 rais) Production(1000 tonnes)

6.25 6.25 Rai Rai = 1 Ha. = 1 Ha.

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SLIDE 19

Oil Palm Production in Thailand

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2 4 6 8 10 12 Plantation Area (M.Ha.) FFB Production (M.Tons)

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SLIDE 20
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SLIDE 21
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SLIDE 22

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million Litre/ Day 66%

45%

28% 16%

3%

20%

Total 2022 = 96 ML/ d

15% 5%

9% 5%

Diesel

Gasoline

NGV Replace Diesel NGV Replace Gasoline Bio Diesel Gasohol

Total 2008 = 60 ML/ d

Alternative Energy Targets for Road Transport Sector of Thailand 2008 -2022

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SLIDE 23

Gasoline and Gasohol Consumption in Thailand, ML/Day

5 10 15 20 25 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 ( J a n

  • O

c t ) Gasoline 91 Gasoline 95 Gasohol

61% 60% 61%

62%

39%

31% 20%

16%

1%

9% 18%

23% 60% 40%

0.05%

55% 5%

40%

64%

33.5%

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SLIDE 24

Biodiesel Consumption Volume (Apr

  • l. 2010)
  • B5 Volume Sale 21.56 ML/ day (B100 1.078 ML/ day)
  • Diesel(B2) Volume Sale 24.82 ML/ day (B100 0.496 ML/ day)
  • Total volume of B100 1.574 ML/ day
  • B3 Mandate since June 1st, 2010 : B100 Vol. 1.9 ML/ day

Update: Sep. 09

628,481 1,072,845 1,701,326

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000

Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Liter/ Day

B100 in B5 B100 in B2 Total B100

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SLIDE 25

Biodiesel Consumption in Thailand ML/day

1,072,844.81 628,481.36 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10

B100 in B2 B100 in B5

B3 Mandate since June 1 B3 Mandate since June 1st

st, 2010

, 2010

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SLIDE 26

Ethanol Production in 2010 Ethanol Production in 2010 19 Plants : 2.9 ML/day 19 Plants : 2.9 ML/day Consumption : 1.3 ML/day Consumption : 1.3 ML/day

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SLIDE 27

Oleochemical Plant, Rayong

Vertical integration among petroleum refiners & oil palm complex (TOL-PTTCh, PBC-RPC, BCP

BDF Plants : 14 BDF Plants : 14 Production capacity : 5.9 ML/day Production capacity : 5.9 ML/day Consumption : 1.9 ML/day Consumption : 1.9 ML/day

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SLIDE 28

Glycerol

Solid Fuel pellet

Empty Fruit Bunch

Power Power Power Power

Oil seeds

ENERGY ISLAND

BDF Production Unit

Glycerol

BIODIESEL

Vegeta ble oil

Oil Extraction

Manure

Palm Fronds Gasification

Quality Control

Palm BDF for Farm Truck Agri machines

BDF

Farm Truck Use up to 100% Biodiesel

Single Cylinder Engines น้ํามันสบูดํา

  • Palm and JCL Plantation
  • JCL Toxicity Test

Animal Feed Cake

Biorefinery Concept

Single Cylinder Engines BDF

Small&Smart Small&Smart Solution Solution

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SLIDE 29

Oil Palm Expansion in Acidic Areas FFB Yield 30 Tons/Ha. in 2008 FFB Yield 36 Tons/Ha in 2009. Planted Oct.2004

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SLIDE 30
  • Farm Co-op,
  • Conversion technology,
  • Microgrid
  • B100 Own-use,
  • Animal Feed- farm use,
  • Sell excess to refiners

for food,fuel,

  • Small & Smart =

Beautiful & Competitive

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SLIDE 31

Blender B100 Plant

Total Cost : 2.5 - 3 B/kg Fixed Cost : 5% - 8% Variable Cost : 92% - 95% Transportation Cost : 0.3 B/Kg

Farmers Oil Extraction Plant

Conversion Cost: 1.5 B/L Conversion Cost : 4 B/L

FFB 5.5 kg CPO 1.05 kg B100 1 L

Note: FFB – CPO Conversion Rate = 18%, CPO – B100 Conversion Rate = 95%

B100 Cost Structure

B100 28.84 FFB 25.00 FFB 25.33 CPO 27.89 CPO 30.49 B100 34.21

FFB 4.56 B/kg FFB 3.79 B/kg

From V. Sriyanyongwat, Next Gen. Biofuels 2009, Bangkok.

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SLIDE 32

32

Climate change Shifting of geopolitical power to Asia Energy crisis: emerging alternative energies Population/aging society/ urbanization Resource crisis: land, food, waste, water ICT changes life style Econ crisis: towards managed capitalism Green economy: economy, society, and environment

Change : Megatrends

ที่มา: ฝายแผนกลยุทธและนโยบาย สก.

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SLIDE 33

2550BE 2007CE

2560BE 2017CE

2555BE 2012CE

Bio-Ethanol Roadmap

E10 Impact to Engine, Parts, Emissions Crop Dev. For inc. sugar/starch content Agricultural Zoning Optimized Anhydrous Ethanol Prod. Tech. Ethanol from canejuice, molasses, cassava Optimized Hydrated Ethanol Prod. Tech. Clean Production of Ethanol Cellulosic Alcohol Technology Bioenergy & Biomaterial Synergy Automotive Industry Dev : E85 - FFV E85-E100 for Agricultural&Industrial Machines E20/E85 Impact to Engine, parts, Emissions Enzyme & Yeast Tech. Development Optimized Production Tech Crop for sugar/ biomaterials Crop Improvement for Bio-Process Sugar / Starch Platform Biorefinery 2nd Generation Biofuels E20/FlexFuel for motorcycles

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SLIDE 34

2017

Biodiesel Roadmap

Oil Crops Var. Improvement/ Breeding Pre/Post Harvest / Zoning /Agronomy High-value extractn from CPO Veg.Oil Extraction Proc. Dev. BDF QA/QC Optimized Prod. Process BDF Production / Zerowaste Glycerine Utilizatn Tech. Heterogeneoes Catalyst Bioplastic

  • Prod. Tech.

Impact of B100 with Farm Truck B100 Agri. Engine Tech. Co-product Dev. JCL Toxicity Issues Process for Lignin Conversion

  • Agri. Machines Dev.

BDF/ Syn Diesel Tech. BDF : Fatty Acid Ethyl Ester

2560BE 2017CE

2555BE 2012CE 2550BE 2007CE

Bioenergy & Biomaterial Synergy B10,B20 Impact to Engine, parts, Emissions B5 Impact to Engine, parts, Emissions B2/B100 Impact to Engine, parts, Emissions BTL/BDF convergence Oil Crops for Rice Paddy High yield Palm oil

  • Mol. Biology Convergence
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SLIDE 35

Way forward

  • Roles & significance of Small Holder Best Practice : Small &

Smart Solutions,

  • Some of the extreme poverty : ‘Bottom Billions’, < 1 USD

(PPP) / day are in the Greater Mekong Subregion….Too ill, too weak, too poor, too deep in political conflict to climb up the ladder of Development,

  • Small Holder Empowerment = Poverty Reduction
  • Biofuel can be the 1st step, then congregate and develop
  • nto higher values products :starch, sugar and
  • leochemical platform,
  • Capacity buildings & (Fair) Trade instead of Food Aid
  • ASEAN Common Market 2015.
  • South-South Actions
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SLIDE 36

The Green-belt and the Bottom Billions