Big Houses, Small William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Big Houses, Small William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Board of Directors Big Houses, Small William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Households Dianne Mercier James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Office of Energy and Plannings 20th Annual Todd I. Selig Spring Planning & Zoning

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Board of Directors

William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Kimon S. Zachos “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

Big Houses, Small Households

Office of Energy and Planning’s 20th Annual Spring Planning & Zoning Conference Whitefield, NH Saturday, May 3, 2014

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New Hampshire’s Housing Environment is Changing

  • New Hampshire’s population growth is slowing down, with

fewer new migrants

  • Job growth is slow and job quality is poor
  • Elders are an increasingly larger share of owners and renters
  • Young home buyers are challenged by slower economic

growth and stricter lending standards

  • Recent trend away from ownership and towards rental

housing

  • Dichotomy of NH growth means different regions have

different problems

  • General public, town officials and business are not aware of

issues affecting NH’s housing

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Housing Needs and Production

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NH Job Growth Slowing Down

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Economic Dichotomy in NH

  • Job growth above 2%

in South.

  • Below 2% almost

everywhere else.

  • North County job

base shrinks.

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NH Wages Also Higher in South

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NH Growth Slowing Down - Population

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Density Varies by Region

  • More people per town

in South and Seacoast

  • West and North more

rural, with exception

  • f cities.
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Fewer Young Owners

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Current Housing Production Slows

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NH Rental Housing Stock is Much Older

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Dichotomy in NH

  • 2 out of 5 housing

units in NH are more than 40 years old.

  • Half of the housing

units in the West and North Country are more than 40 years

  • ld.
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Expected Increase in Older Population

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Will Mean an Increase in Older Home Owners

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And More Senior Renters

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NH Housing Stock – Slower Construction

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Housing Production Needs by Region

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Housing Affordability is a Mixed Picture Right Now

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Home Prices Have Fallen Since 2005

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Declines in Prices and Interest Rates Affect Affordability

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But Rental Prices Have Continued to Rise

New Hampshire Rents – NHHFA Surveys

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And Renter Median Income Growth Slower Than for Home Owners

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55,000 NH Renters Pay More than 30% of Income

  • n Housing

And Low Income renters have the highest burden

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Market Perceptions and Preferences

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Market Perceptions: Realtors, Builders, Lenders

  • The NH market is lagging the MA market recovery;
  • Recovery in NH is spotty, favoring readily accessible

communities;

  • Rigid zoning, low density provisions, high impact

fees, and slow approval process are dampening development of innovative housing solutions;

  • Communities remain skeptical of new development’s

benefits and wary of its public sector costs;

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Market Perceptions and Preferences: Young Households

  • Net outmigration;
  • Have diverse solutions to housing needs;

– Doubling up – Living with parents – Commuting long distances – Leasing out bedrooms if home is owned

  • Preference for urban lifestyle
  • Housing not an investment;
  • Mediocre job quality is taking its toll

– 2/3 of NH recent job growth pays below average wages;

  • Student debt

– 75% of NH graduates have debt – Averages $32,900 in NH—highest in the country

  • New Qualifying Mortgage standards (43% debt to income ratio) could be a

problem;

  • ? Generation renters?
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Market Perceptions and Preferences: Aging Boomers

  • Fastest growing demographic;
  • Strong preference to age in place;
  • Inadequate savings/pensions to retain current lifestyle;
  • Affordability is stressed-out

– particularly for senior renters; – Assisted living ($60,000 per year) and nursing homes ($80,000 per year) are expensive options;

  • Declining home prices reduce equity;
  • Funding shifting to in-home services, but slowly;
  • Who will buy their units…declining households <age 65
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Market Perceptions and Preferences: Workforce and Affordable Housing

  • Significant affordable housing issue in the state due, in

part, to inferior job growth;

  • Rental market is tight with rising rents jeopardizing

affordability;

  • Workforce housing is becoming more accepted by

communities but not across the board;

  • Move up market is weak;
  • Rigid zoning and development controls;
  • Shortage of professional guidance in rural communities;
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Senior Housing

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US Population Is Aging

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NH Following Suit

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85+ Accelerates After Year 2025

  • 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

NH Senior Population

65 to 74 75 to 84 85 & older

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Seniors Portion Increases from 1in 5 to 1in 3

19% 22% 34%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

2000 2010 2025

Senior Households as a % of NH Occupied Units

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Senior Owner Growth Exceeds Renter Growth

Age 65+ Change 2010-25 % Change Owner 71,279 83% Renter 19,994 77% Total Age 65+ 91,273 81% Total Under Age 65

  • 19,572
  • 5%

Total Households 71,701 14% NH Occupied Housing Units (Households) By Age

69,185 86,151 157,430 22,213 26,059 46,053 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 2000 2010 2025

Households Age 65+ By Tenure

Owner Renter

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Mismatch With the Inventory—Small Households, Large Units— Downsizing to What?

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

Bedroom Count in Owner Occupied Units

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Most Seniors Want to Age in Place

Source: AARP, 2010

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Most Seniors Do Age In Place

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At Current Ratios, Nursing Home and Assisted Living Demand Will Rise Sharply

3,700 4,400 7,400 5,800 7,000 11,300

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

2000 2010 2025

Living Arrangements of NH Senior Population

Assisted Living Long Term Care

Ratios may fall, but boomers may retire in their vacation homes

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Limitations on Aging in Place

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Issue: Nearly Half of Seniors Have a Significant Disability

Households % of Senior Households Vision Difficulty 3,570 8.0% Hearing Difficulty 9,818 22.0% Physical Difficulty 11,380 25.5% Cognitive Difficulty 4,463 10.0% Selt-Care Difficulty 3,302 7.4% Independent Living Difficulty 7,006 15.7% With At Least One Disability 44,626 42.1% Total Households Age 65+ 106,000 Source: ACS, 2011 Cited in AARP State Housing Profiles, 2011 Senior Households With At Least One Disability

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Issue: Incomes are Low— 20% of Senior Renters Below Poverty

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Issue: Overpayment Is Significant

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Now 1 Out of 5 Overpaying Renters are Seniors

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Issue: Low Density Community Setting—Difficult to Provide At- Home Services

In Principal City 24% Metropolitan Suburb 42% Rural Micropolitan 28% Rural 6%

Geographic Distribution of NH Senior Population

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Fewer Caregivers per Senior

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Issue: Housing Characteristics-- Preferences Don’t Match Supply Aging in Place Need:

  • Low maintenance, smaller,

efficient units

  • First floor bedroom and bath
  • No stairs into unit
  • Wider entry and bathroom

doors

  • Adapted bathrooms and

kitchens

  • Higher electrical outlets
  • Levers, not knobs
  • Access to public transportation

Supply Inventory:

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NH’s Changing Environment Has Consequences

  • New Hampshire’s population

growth is slowing down

  • Job quality is poor
  • Elders will be increasingly

larger share of owners and renters

  • Young home buyers are

challenged

  • Recent trend away from
  • wnership and towards rental
  • Different problems in different

regions

  • General public, town officials

and business are not aware of issues affecting NH’s housing

  • Fewer new households, and

fewer families

  • Overpayment problems for low

income renters

  • Elder overpayment, and Elders

not aware of options available

  • Future home owners not aware
  • f ownership pitfalls and

advantages

  • Multi-family production

shortages

  • Geographic diversity more

important than urban core.

  • Town officials not comfortable

changing existing regulations.

Environment Consequences

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New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies

Want to learn more?

  • Online: nhpolicy.org
  • Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
  • Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
  • Our blog: policyblognh.org
  • (603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

Board of Directors

William H. Dunlap, Chair David Alukonis Eric Herr Dianne Mercier James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Kimon S. Zachos