Bhutan Monsoon Prediction JJAS 2015 Prepared by Tayba Buddha - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Bhutan Monsoon Prediction JJAS 2015 Prepared by Tayba Buddha - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 10, 2023 136 likes •268 views

Bhutan Monsoon Prediction JJAS 2015 Prepared by Tayba Buddha Tamang Meteorology Division Department of Hydro Met Services April 2015 6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA Data set Station wise forecast 1996-2014 Over all JJAS Bhutan

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Bhutan Monsoon Prediction JJAS 2015

Prepared by Tayba Buddha Tamang Meteorology Division Department of Hydro Met Services April 2015

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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Data set

  • Station wise forecast – 1996-2014
  • Over all JJAS Bhutan forecast – 1996-2014
  • Gridded data CFS2 – 1982-2015 - April

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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Station wise forecast

  • 1996-2014 JJAS
  • Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)
  • Goodness index = 0.129

Sl no Station Lat Lon 1 Bhur 26.90703 90.43106 2 Damphu 27.00946 90.12201 3 Pling 26.85628 89.38659 4 Sipsu 27.00896 88.87832 5 Bumthang 27.54548 90.75377 6 Dagana 27.09680 89.85873 7 Trongsa 27.50369 90.50551 8 Zhemgang 27.21507 90.65883 9 Punakha 27.58061 89.86480 10 Wangdue 27.48909 89.89807 11 Deothang 26.85977 91.46328 12 Mongar 27.27920 91.23576 13 Pemagatshel 27.03180 91.43053 14 Kanglung 27.27803 91.50153 15 Tyangtse 27.61523 91.49691 16 Haa 27.38653 89.27869 17 Paro 27.38714 89.41948 18 Thimphu 27.44156 89.66277

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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Results Stations

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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Results Stations

  • Forecast Deviation 3.2%
  • Above Normal Forecast – probabilistic

forecast

  • Paro & Thimphu – (-ve) deviation
  • Dagana and Paro (–ve) deviation but

Above normal forecast

Sl no Station % Dev_Forecast B N A 1 Bhur 5.0 26 31 43 2 Damphu 0.3 25 29 46 3 Pling 6.8 24 32 44 4 Sipsu 2.4 24 32 44 5 Bumthang 5.4 25 30 45 6 Dagana

  • 13.4

30 33 37 7 Trongsa 5.2 28 29 43 8 Zhemgang 4.8 26 31 43 9 Punakha 6.8 29 31 40 10 Wangdue 0.6 27 31 42 11 Deothang 15.3 22 33 45 12 Mongar 6.4 26 28 46 13 Pgatshel 1.9 23 33 44 14 Kanglung 4.3 24 32 44 15 Tyangtse 4.4 25 29 46 16 Haa 2.0 27 32 41 17 Paro

  • 6.4

30 32 38 18 Thimphu 6.1 28 31 41 Average +3.2

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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Over all Bhutan forecast

  • 1996-2014 JJAS
  • Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)
  • Goodness Index=0.216

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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Results

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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Results

  • Forecast = 6.149% deviation
  • BNA = 24 24 52

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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  • Goodness index =0.278

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

CFS2_prcp_Apr_JJAS- Forecast

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Results

  • Forecast of above below

normal in northern Bhutan

  • Normal rain in southern

region

  • Above normal in eastern

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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Conclusion

Bhutan Monsoon 2015

  • Station wise forecast= Above normal monsoon (normal range)
  • Over all combined Bhutan monsoon= Above Normal (normal range)
  • CFS2
  • Below normal - northern
  • Normal – Southern
  • Above Normal - Eastern
  • Good performance from Average Bhutan monsoon rain combined
  • Bad performance on individual station

Consensus

  • General forecast for Bhutan = normal rainfall with slightly (+) deviation

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA

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THANK YOU

6th SASCOF April 2015, DHAKA