Beyond Robotization, Automation & Digitalization Lawrence Jeff - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Beyond Robotization, Automation & Digitalization Lawrence Jeff Johnson Deputy Director Research Department Trends in the World of Work: What kind of growth? World GDP growth rates by component 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4%
Lawrence Jeff Johnson Deputy Director Research Department
Source: Economic Intelligence Unit
World GDP growth rates by component
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Private consumption Government consumption Gross Investment External balance growth in real GDP
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Global employment (billion) Own- account workers and contributing family workers Wage and salaried workers Employment Pre-crisis trend
Current and estimated jobs gap in the World
Estimated/Forecast
59 mn 59 mn
Source: ILO data from October 2015
1.4 bn (53%) 1.5 bn (49%) 1.5 bn (46%) 1.6 bn (46%) 1.2 bn (44%) 1.4 bn (49%) 1.6 bn (51%) 1.8 bn (52%)
Source: ILO data from October 2015
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(billion) Unemployment Own-account workers and contributing family members Unemployment rate Own-account workers and contributing family members (%)
Own-account workers and contributing family members and Unemployment levels (million) and rates (%) in the World
6.1 10.4 10.3 16.2 29.0 29.6 29.8 40.2 43.5 51.7 64.7 70.6 5.5 6.9 10.1 10.1 6.5 9.2 12.1 4.5 5.8 4.4 7.4 4.1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Unemployment Own-account workers and contributing family members
Source: ILO data from October 2015
Own-account workers and contributing family members and Unemployment as share of labour force (%)
1.4 BILLION
vulnerable workers
3.4 million unemployed
Source: ILO Trends Econometric Models, April 2017
10 20 30 40 50 60 2005 2015 2020
Percent
Vulnerable employment and unemployment rates (%)
Unemployment Vulnerable employment
Source: Elaboration of data from ILO World Employment and Social Outlook 2015: The changing nature of jobs Note: Most common year 2012 (43 countries); between 2012-14 for 56% of the countries, 2010-11 for 26% and 2006-09 for 18%.
Employment by status and contract type (%, latest available year)
26.4 76.7 13.7 5.7 12.9 9.3 14.4 7.5 12.3 0.6 16.5 4.5 2.4 3.4 2.3 1.2 34.9 9.0 40.1 60.5 11.1 1.0 13.1 20.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0
Total (90 countries) High income Middle income Low income
% total employment
Employee: permanent Employee: temporary Employee: no contract Employer Own-account Unpaid family workers
Trends in the World of Work:
Source: ILO data from November 2015, definition from Autor et al. (2003) and Jaimovich and Siu (2012)
Change in the occupational employment share by type of
1.5 2.1
3.7
0.2
0.7 2.4
0.0
6.3 4.2 3.5 6.5 2.3 2.2 2.4 6.1 3.9 6.3 0.7 3.5
Changes in employment shares (pourcentage point) Routine Occupations Manual non-routine occupations Cognitive non-routine occupations
Note: Change in employment shares, in percentage points; *: forecasts after 2016 Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, Nov 2016
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 High skilled Medium skilled Low skilled High skilled Medium skilled Low skilled High skilled Medium skilled Low skilled High skilled Medium skilled Low skilled Low income Low-Middle income Upper-Middle income High income
Changes in employment shares
(in percentage points)
Job polarization across the world
Level of economic development Dark colours: 2000-2013 Light colours: 2013-2020 Dark colours: 2000-2013 Light colours: 2013-2020
Source: ILO Trends Econometric Models, November 2016
2 4 6 8 10
World Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and Caribbean Northern America Arab States Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia and the Pacific Southern Asia Northern, Southern and Western Europe Eastern Europe Central and Western Asia
Change in employment share by skill level (percentage points)
Shift of skill requirement of occupations, 2000-2017 (percentage points)
Low skill Medium skill High skill
Innovation Demographic change Gender composition
inequalities Rising income inequalities Scarce natural resources & climate change Transition to greener economies Globalisation & fragmented production
Four conversations around the initiative Four conversations around the initiative
1
High Level Global Commission High Level Global Commission
2
International Labour Conference International Labour Conference
3
2016 2017 2018 2019
Future of Work
Work and society Organization of work and production Decent jobs for all Governance
Monitoring and analysis of major global trends (with focus on women and youth) Global supply chains and trade Technological changes, innovation, and employment relationships Inclusive growth and policy coherence Structural transformation for more and better jobs Green jobs and the impact of climate change
UN system Universities & Research Institutes Think Tanks Policy makers Regional and country
Changing World of Work
Witwatersrand, South Africa