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Beyond 2011: assessing alternatives to a traditional census Local - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Beyond 2011: assessing alternatives to a traditional census Local Authority Research and Intelligence Association (LARIA) conference, 22 February 2012 Head of Demography Division National Records Scotland (NRS) NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Beyond 2011: assessing alternatives to a traditional census Local Authority Research and Intelligence Association (LARIA) conference, 22 February 2012

Head of Demography Division National Records Scotland (NRS)

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Overview

  • Background
  • Statistical options
  • Use of admin data sources
  • Record linkage
  • How we protect privacy
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Key Drivers

  • Cost and viability of traditional census
  • User needs and expectations: quality and efficiency
  • New opportunities: technology and data
  • House of Commons Treasury Committee Report

‘Counting the Population’, 2008

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

McLelland Review

‘Although sensitive to information protection and privacy issues, the citizen would expect that public bodies will share and move information across internal boundaries, particularly where there is an advantage to the citizen or the community when this happens’

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Purpose and Scope

  • To explore the potential of improving the quality of

population and socio-demographic statistics after the 2011 Census

  • To report in 2014 on feasibility research (phase 1),

followed by a longer term programme of work to pilot, and implement an alternative model(s) Successful Scottish Spending Review bid, Sept 2011

  • Assessing alternatives to the census
  • Wider data linkage framework to support social policy

research Office for National Statistics (ONS) Beyond 2011 programme for England & Wales established April 2011

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Beyond 2011 : Statistical options

Aggregate analysis 100% linkage to create ‘statistical population spine’ (Intermediate) Sample linkage e.g. 1% of postcodes Address register + Survey Administrative data options Traditional Census (long form to everyone) Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period) Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample) Headcount + Annual Survey (US model) Census

  • ptions

Survey

  • ption(s)
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Record Linkage

  • The traditional census involves a number of data

collections and uses identified records and record linkage in the production process

  • Census uses: Scottish Longitudinal Study, Scottish

Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study

  • Organisational and technical infrastructure for the

traditional census can be applied

  • This project: a wider range of sources set up for other,

administrative purposes which can be joined together

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Data sources being considered

  • NHS Central Register
  • Community Health Index
  • Higher Education Student Record
  • Further Education Student Record
  • School Census
  • Electoral Register
  • Department of Work and Pensions (DWP)/Her Majesty’s

Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Customer Information System (CIS)

  • National Insurance No allocations to migrant workers
  • Surveys
  • Address registers (Census and One Scotland Gazeteer)
  • Other local data
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

CENSUS Population Data

Socio demographic

Attribute Data

Coverage Assessment

  • incl. under & over-coverage
  • by survey and admin data?

SOURCES FRAME DATA ESTIMATION OUTPUTS

Population estimates

Address Register Household

Communal Establishments Adjusting for missing data and error Adjusting for non response bias in survey (or sources) Maintained national address gazetteer – provides frame for population data & surveys All National to Small Area

Attribute estimates

Population distribution provides weighting for attributes Interactional Analysis E.g. TTWA Longitudinal data

Household structure etc

Quality measurement

Beyond 2011 – statistical options

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Population Data

Socio demographic

Attribute Data

Coverage Assessment

  • incl. under & over-coverage
  • by survey and admin data?

Socio demographic

Survey(s)

SOURCES FRAME DATA ESTIMATION OUTPUTS

Admin Source Population estimates

Address Register Household

Communal Establishments Adjusting for missing data and error Adjusting for non response bias in survey (or sources) Surveys to fill gaps Commercial sources? Maintained national address gazetteer – provides frame for population data & surveys All National to Small Area

Admin Source Admin Source Comm Source

increasing later?

Attribute estimates

Population distribution provides weighting for attributes Interactional Analysis E.g. TTWA Longitudinal data

Household structure etc

??

Quality measurement

Beyond 2011 – statistical options

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Challenges in using admin data

  • Collected for specific purpose, rules and definitions used

not usually consistent with the needs of estimating resident population

  • Coverage: geographic or demographic
  • Timing and currency: variable
  • Quality (completeness, accuracy, consistency): often

unknown

  • No cross-systems consistency
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) population counts compared with NRS Mid-Year population estimates: 2010, Council areas, % difference

  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

S C O T L A N D A b e rd e e n C ity A b e rd e e n s h ire A n g u s A rg y ll & B u te C la c k m a n n a n s h ire D u m frie s & G a llo w a y D u n d e e C ity E a s t A y rs h ire E a s t D u n b a rto n s h ire E a s t L

  • th

ia n E a s t R e n fre w s h ire E d in b u rg h , C ity

  • f

E ile a n S ia r F a lk irk F ife G la s g

  • w

C ity H ig h la n d In v e rc ly d e M id lo th ia n M

  • ra

y N

  • rth

A y rs h ire N

  • rth

L a n a rk s h ire O rk n e y Is la n d s P e rth & K in ro s s R e n fre w s h ire S c

  • ttis

h B

  • rd

e rs S h e tla n d Is la n d s S

  • u

th A y rs h ire S

  • u

th L a n a rk s h ire S tirlin g W e s t D u n b a rto n s h ire W e s t L

  • th

ia n

Local Authority

O v e r c

  • u

n t % a g e

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

NHSCR population counts compared with NRS Mid- Year population estimates: 2010, age, % difference

  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% All Ages 0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 - 89 90+ Age groups Overcount %age

Glasgow City Aberdeen City Perth & Kinross Shetland Islands

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

DWP CIS population counts compared with NRS Mid-Year population estimates: 2010, Council areas, % difference

  • 20.0%
  • 15.0%
  • 10.0%
  • 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

S C O T LA N D A berdeen C ity A berdeenshire A ngus A rgyll & B ute C lackm annanshire D um fries & G allow ay D undee C ity E ast A yrshire E ast D unbartonshire E ast Lothian E ast R enfrew shire E dinburgh, C ity E ilean S iar F alkirk F ife G lasgow C ity H ighland Inverclyde M idlothian M

  • ray

N

  • rth A

yrshire N

  • rth Lanarkshire

O rkney Islands P erth & K inross R enfrew shire S cottish B

  • rders

S hetland S

  • uth A

yrshire S

  • uth Lanarkshire

S tirling W est D unbartonshire W est Lothian

Local authority O v e rc

  • u

n t % a g e

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Main conclusions

  • No source uniquely capable
  • f providing a solution
  • Need to use in combination
  • Good understanding of the

relevant quality characteristics is a key prerequisite

HESA Electoral register Other Local Data CIS NHSCR School Census Resident Population

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

The research: process and objectives

  • Link each source with the 2011 census to help

understand coverage and quality

  • Build a prototype ‘statistical population spine’ (a count by

age, sex and small area) by merging two or more sources

  • Assess against a benchmark.

– Two options: prototype is independent of the 2011 census (may not be possible for a while) or prototype uses census information (more likely in the short term)

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Record Linkage

  • Bring together records which are likely to belong to the

same person

  • In the absence of universal person ID number using

Name Address (postcode) Date of Birth Gender and a history of name and address where available

  • The only way to ensure that people with records in more

than one source are not double-counted

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Protecting privacy and confidentiality: legal safeguards

  • 1920 Census Act
  • Statistics and

Registration Service Act 2007

  • Data Protection Act
  • Human Rights Act
  • Confidentiality provisions:

unlawful disclosure of personal data is a criminal offence

  • Purpose: processing for

statistical purposes only. No feedback to

  • riginating administrative

systems or use for

  • perational purposes
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Protecting privacy and confidentiality: technical and organisational measures

  • 1. Compliance with Her Majesty’s Government (HMG) Security

Policy Framework: technical, procedural and physical security controls; independent review of security and Information Assurance (IA) process for census 2011 published on the NRS website: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/census/censushm2011/policy- and-methodology/index.html

  • 2. Separation of matching and content data: analysis on de-

identified data

  • 3. Minimum data travel: single transfer to NRS required
  • 4. Personnel: security induction and vetting, follow-up training
  • 5. Access control policies
  • 6. Statistical disclosure control for outputs
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Protecting privacy and confidentiality: Public engagement and acceptability

  • Legal compliance is not enough, not just about data

protection

  • Viability of a potential alternative solution or the

traditional census itself is dependent on public trust

  • Public acceptability research, consultation and

transparency of approach; increase awareness and understand concerns as part of the Privacy Impact Assessment (PIA) process

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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Summary

  • Clear public benefit
  • Minimum information necessary would be used and

processing would be tightly specified

  • Under strict legal constraints
  • Technical and organisational measures in place to

protect confidentiality

  • Transparency and Public Awareness being carried out
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NATIONAL RECORDS OF SCOTLAND preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future

Not just a privacy threat

  • ‘Persons, households and firms can live in peace, they

are not harassed with unnecessary inquiries. Data security is better because of the reduction in the number

  • f persons handling the data… Only the computer ‘sees’

the data because it is all in an electronic format’. Register Based Statistics in the Nordic Countries, UN 2007

  • ‘There is evidence that the public is more relaxed about

privacy, particularly as a value to be traded off against good or improved public service, than experts and privacy campaigners often realise (cf. Kelsey 2009, Bradwell 2010)’ Kieron O’Hara Review of Privacy and Transparency, 2011