BC Hydros LTAP and the Long-Term Electricity Transmission Inquiry - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

BC Hydro’s LTAP and the Long-Term Electricity Transmission Inquiry

Presentation to the BCUC Preliminary Workshop Randy Reimann

BC Hydro Manager, Resource Planning April 17, 2009

C14-2 SECTION 5 TRANSMISSION INQUIRY EXHIBIT

Overview

• BC Hydro:

– Who We Are – What We Do

• Energy Planning Today: A 20 year plan
• The Long-term Transmission Inquiry: Looking

forward 30 years

Who We Are

• A Crown Corporation
• Established in 1961
• Over 5,000 employees
• Receive guidance from the provincial government through

several policy instruments, including a Shareholder’s Letter of Expectations and BC Energy Plan.

• BC Hydro is regulated by the British Columbia Utilities

Commission (BCUC) under the Utilities Commission Act.

What We Do

• BC Hydro's primary business activities are the

generation and distribution of electricity.

• Transmission of that electricity is facilitated by the

BC Transmission Corporation on behalf of BC Hydro and other power providers in B.C.

• BC Hydro serves customers in an area containing

about 94% of British Columbia's population

Our System

• BC Hydro operates 30 hydroelectric facilities and three natural

gas-fired thermal power plants.

• About 90% of the province's electricity is produced by major

hydroelectric generating stations on the Columbia and Peace river systems and in the Coastal Region.

• BC Hydro's thermal power plants and Independent Power

Producers contribute the remaining 10 per cent of generation.

• BC Hydro also serves 17 communities – known as non-

integrated areas – that are not linked to our transmission network.

Meeting B.C.’s Future Electricity Needs

• BC Hydro is planning now to meet future energy needs in B.C.

Building more Reinvesting in existing assets, $3.4 billion in next two years; considering new

• ptions for firm energy

Conserving more Power Smart; energy efficiency standards for buildings; smart metering, rate incentives; public campaigns Buying more IPPs/renewable resources; clean power call; standing offer program; bioenergy call

BC Hydro & BCTC Overview

• BCTC plans, operates and manages BC Hydro’s

transmission system

• BC Hydro requests transmission service from BCTC

through the Network Integration Transmission Service (NITS) process

• BC Hydro’s transmission service requests are based
• n a base resource plan and contingency resource

plans (CRPs) that result from its Long-Term Acquisition Plan (LTAP)

2008 LTAP Context - Summary

• BC Hydro required to file long-term resource plans

with BC Utilities Commission (BCUC) under Utilities Commission Act (UCA)

• 2008 LTAP Considerations

– Update of 2006 Integrated Electricity Plan (IEP)/LTAP – BCUC 2006 IEP/LTAP Decision

• Need for new resources accepted (further work on Burrard needed)
• More work required on assessing risk

– 2007 Energy Plan

• Target to acquire 50 per cent of BC Hydro’s incremental resource needs through

conservation by 2020

• Thermal generation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be fully offset or

sequestered

• 90% clean or renewable generation
• Province to be electricity self-sufficient by 2016

–Special Direction 10

– UCA Amendments

LTAP Process

Step 1 - Establish Objectives Step 2 - Load Resource Balance Step 3 – Resource Options Inventory Step 4 – Develop & Evaluate Portfolios Step 5 – Portfolio Trade-Off Analysis Step 6 – Long- Term Acquisition Plan Attributes Load Forecast Key Risks and Uncertainties

Energy Planning Engagement

2 0 0 5 I E P S t a k e h o ld e r & F i rs t N a t i o n s E n g a g e m e n t R e g io n a l F ir s t N a t io n s P ro v in c ia l I E P C o m m it t e e R e s o u r c e O p ti o n s W o rk s h o p s B r o a d P u b l ic R e s o u r c e O p t io n s R e p o rt R e g io n a l F ir s t N a t io n s P ro v in c ia l I E P C o m m it t e e B r o a d P u b l ic 2 0 0 5 IE P / A c t io n P la n S u rv e y / W e b s i te R e g io n a l I n f o r m a t io n S e s s io n s a n d W o rk s h o p s S e le c t e d C o m m it t e e t o u n d e rt a k e f a c i lit a t e d d e c is i o n s a n a ly s is p ro c e s s O p e n s e s s i o n t o p ro v id e b ro a d re v ie w o f in p u t s t o t h e I E P p ro c e s s I n p u t a s r e q u e s t e d

2008 LTAP Engagement 2008 LTAP Engagement 2008 LTAP Public Communications Intervenors Resource Options Fort Nelson

2005/06 2007/08

2008 LTAP Components

• Expenditure Determination Requests

– Burrard – Demand-Side Management (DSM) Plan – Clean Power Call Definition – Fort Nelson – Mica Units – Site C

• Justification for Expenditures

– Load Resource Gap – Risk Framework – 2007 Electricity and Gas Price Forecasts – GHG and Renewable Energy Credit (REC) Price Forecast – Resource Options Update – Portfolio Analysis – Contingency Resource Plans

2008 LTAP Load-Resource Balance

50,000 52,000 54,000 56,000 58,000 60,000 62,000 64,000 66,000 68,000 70,000 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023 F2024 F2025 F2026 F2027 F2028 Fiscal Year (year ending March 31) Firm Energy Capability (GWh) 2008 Load Forecast Range after DSM Existing and Committed Supply Planned IPP Purchases 2008 Mid Load Forecast after DSM

2008 LTAP CRP Shortfall Risks

Risk Capacity Reduction for CRP Purposes (MW) F2017 F2028 Load Forecast Uncertainty 530 930 DSM Deliverability Risk 270 450 Burrard Unit Catastrophic Failure 150 150 Calls Capacity Reduction 50 n/a Total Reduction: 1,000 1,530

Regional Planning: Fort Nelson

• BC Hydro supplies Ft. Nelson

customers with Ft. Nelson Generating Station (FNG) and AESO

• BC Hydro is working with

project proponents to assess and update the regional load forecast

• 2008 LTAP requests BCUC

approval of expenditures to implement upgrades to the FNG

• Because of the possibility of

additional load growth, BC Hydro is advancing investigation of additional supply

Fort Nelson

Connected to Alberta grid

LTAP Process: BCH & BCTC Interactions

BC Hydro BC Hydro/BCTC BCTC

LTAP & CRPs Develop Alternative Portfolios Resource Options Portfolio Analysis BCTC Transmission System Model Transmission Project Information e.g.,

• Cost
• Land Impact

Input Schedule of Supply/DSM Resource Additions Timing of Transmission System Reinforcement Requirements

BC Hydro-BCTC Planning Processes

BC Hydro BC Hydro/BCTC BCTC

LTAP & CRPs NITS Application BC Hydro RRA NITS Study BC Hydro Inputs: Load & Resource Plans BCTC: System Studies NITS Agreement Transmission Revenue Requirement Application BCTC Capital Planning Process BCTC Capital Plan

BCUC Review

2008 LTAP Process

• 2008 LTAP submitted to BCUC on June 12, 2008
• Evidentiary Update with revised load, DSM and call

attrition information submitted December 22, 2008

• Oral hearing phases completed March 2009
• BC Hydro Written Argument submitted April 9, 2009
• Decision expected summer 2009

2008 LTAP & Transmission Inquiry Linkages

2008 LTAP Transmission Inquiry Load Forecast

• Domestic need
• 20 years
• High, Mid, Low

forecasts

• Provincial focus
• 30 years
• Scenarios

Load-Resource Balance

• 20 years
• 30 years

Electricity Resource Potential

• Update of 2006

IEP/LTAP

• Resource blocks

ranked on unit energy cost (UEC)

• Grouped by

geographic location

• Cost-effective and

probable sequence of development Market Assessment

• Self-sufficiency
• Renewable Energy

Credits (RECs)

• Access to market