Barclays CEO Energy-Power conference Royal Dutch Shell plc Ben van - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Barclays CEO Energy-Power conference Royal Dutch Shell plc Ben van - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Barclays CEO Energy-Power conference Royal Dutch Shell plc Ben van Beurden Chief Executive Officer September 7, 2016 Ben van Beurden Chief Executive Officer Royal Dutch Shell plc Definitions & cautionary note Reserves: Our use of the
Ben van Beurden Chief Executive Officer
Royal Dutch Shell plc
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016
Definitions & cautionary note
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society
- f Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 2P + 2C definitions.
Resources and potential: Our use of the term “resources and potential” are consistent with SPE 2P + 2C + 2U definitions. Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. Shales: Our use of the term ‘shales’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this release “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this release refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This release contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these
- statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing
management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this release, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. There can be no assurance that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this release are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this release and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this release, September 7, 2016. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this release. With respect to operating costs synergies indicated, such savings and efficiencies in procurement spend include economies of scale, specification standardisation and operating efficiencies across operating, capital and raw material cost areas. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this release that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016 4
Strategy
“Let’s make the future”
Leader: : value + influence Reducing our carbon intensity Shared value with society
World-class investment case STRATEGIC
Focus portfolio on resilient positions Invest in advantaged projects Value chain integration
FCF/share + ROCE growth Conservative financial
management
OPERATIONAL
Reset cost and capital spending First class execution projects +
- perations
Unrelenting focus on HSSE and
licence to operate
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016
Industry context
Substantial + long lasting shifts in energy landscape
2005 2010 Q1 2016 2000 2050
$
From 7 to 9 billion by 2050 75% will live in cities Global energy demand to double between 2000 & 2050 World needs more energy; less CO2 New sources New energy carriers New business models OPEC, shales, shorter price cycles Requires new value creation models Global population Growth in oil & g gas demand Energy s system in transition Customer choice Continued oil price volatility Changing resources access
5
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016
Re-shape Shell
Driving strategy in multiple time horizons
Relentless portfolio io hig igh-gradin ing
Strong free cash flow and returns Cash engines: today Growth priorities: 2016+ Future opportunities: 2020+ Competitive + resilient Funds dividends + balance sheet FCF + ROACE pathway Affordable growth in advantaged positions Material value + upside Managed exposure Path to profitability Cash engines 2020+
CONVENTIONAL OIL + GAS CHEMICALS OIL PRODUCTS DEEP WATER INTEGRATED GAS OIL SANDS MINING SHALES NEW ENERGIES
6
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016 7
Stronger results from smaller portfolio io
Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items
Cash engines
Example: Oil Products
Advantaged feedstock + supply Asset sales Products + brand
2007 2015 Global weighted average refining margin (RHS) Oil products earnings Million barrels/day $ billion $ per barrel
- 20%
- 30%
+25%
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016
25 50 2011 2013 2015
8
Cash engines
Example: Integrated Gas
IOC leadership posit
itio ion
Global footprin
int
Va
Value from optio ionality
Million tonnes per annum
LNG volumes
Capacity at year-end in million tonnes per annum
Liq iquefaction ion capacit ity
2015 Shell LNG liquefaction volumes Shell LNG sales volumes LNG Peru QG-4 Atlantic LNG Oman Sakhalin Malaysia Sabine Pass Equatorial Guinea Pluto NWS Brunei QCLNG Gorgon Nigeria Shell + BG 16H1 extrapolated Equity capacity Long-term offtake agreement Spot offtake in 2015 Deliveries in 2015
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016 9
Growth priorities
Example: deep water
Shell + BG deep water growth
Brazil Gulf of Mexico Other
Lowerin ing g capit ital in intensit ity
$ per boe break-even cost (examples)
Reducin ing g dril illin ing costs
# drilling days
2014 baseline Current
- 30%
- 40%
Current 2013/14 baseline Variable spread rate + drilling materials cost
$ thousand
Deliv
ivering g world class development funnel
Reducin
ing g break-even: : new proje jects ~$45/ ~$45/bbl bbl
2009 BC-10 2014 Mars B Gumusut-Kakap 2010 Perdido 2005 Bonga 2001 Brutus 1999 Ursa 1997 Ram Powell 1996 Mars 1994 Auger
Brazil Pre-salt Coulomb Appo Vito Kaikias
Current estimate - under construction Previous estimate Current estimate - pre-FID Example Gulf of Mexico
Under construction
Malikai Coulomb Appomattox Brazil pre-salt
Thousand boe per day
2016 Stones
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016 Production excludes divested assets (2013-14) and BG Haynesville addition (2016H1)
Future opportunities
Example: shales
$ million per well 4 8 12 2013 2014 2015 2016H1
Average dril ill and complete costs – LRS wells
$ billion 2 4 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Capit ital in investment
~12 billion boe
Resources
Thousand boe per day 125 250 2013 2014 2015 2016H1
Productio ion
Materia
ial resource + potentia ial ~12 bil illio ion boe
25% liq
iquid ids, , 75% gas
Reducin
ing g costs + im improvin ing capit ital effic icie iency
Western C Canada Gas Western C Canada LRS Appalachia ia Permia ian Argentin ina Ha Haynesvil ille
- 60%
+35% Liquids Gas Reserves Contingent resources -
- ther
Contingent resources - development pending Prospective resources
- 50%
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016
Manage down-cycle
Financial performance
$ billion
Earnin ings + ROACE
$ billion
Div ivid idend, buyback + gearin ing
$ billion
Cash flow
Prio
iorit ities for cash: :
Debt reductio
ion
Div
ivid idends
Buybacks + capit
ital in investment
%
- 5
5 10 15
- 10
10 20 30 2012 2013 2014 2015 16Q2 4Q rolling
- 15
15 30 45
- 15
15 30 45 2012 2013 2014 2015 16Q2 4Q rolling 10 20 30 10 20 2012 2013 2014 2015 16Q2 4Q rolling CFFO Cash investment Free cash flow (RHS) Dividend declared Buyback End period gearing (RHS) Upstream Integrated gas Downstream ROACE (RHS) Corporate/Other % %
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016 12 * $60 oil price scenario 2018 (2016 RT Brent)
Manage down-cycle
Pulling levers to manage financial framework
2016 2016-18 levers
Divestments Reduce capital investment Reduce
- perating
costs Deliver new projects
Reducing our cash break-even Further options available +/- $10 Brent = ~5 billion CFFO
$ $ billion 20 2015 15 baseline: : Shell + + BG 2016 2016 2017 2017-20 2018 8 potential Operating costs 46 Trend to 40 (underlying) Multi-billion p.a. Capital investment 36 ~29 25-30 Divestments 6 + 5 6-8 in progress 30 over 2016-18 Projects start-up post-2014 (CFFO) n/a ~$2 billion ~10 billion by 2018*
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016 13
Manage down-cycle
Divestments
Integrated gas split out from Upstream from 2011 onwards
$ billion
Div ivestment program
$30 bil
illio ion 2016-18 18
Progressing
g $6-8 bil illio ion 2016
5-10 countrie
ies; ~10% of productio ion
10 20 30 2007-09 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18 Downstream/Corporate High grading ‘tail’ Infrastructure + mature positions Refocus portfolio Upstream Integrated Gas 2016 2016-2018 2018 com
- mpleted + a
+ annou
- unced
$ b $ bil illion ion Completed – MLP 0.8 – Denmark marketing 0.3 – N.Z.: Maui pipeline 0.2 – MGL IPO 0.1 – Others 0.1 Tot
- tal com
- mpleted
1. 1.5
Announced – Showa Shell ~1.4 – Brutus/Glider 0.4 – Malaysia refining ~0.2 – Anasuria cluster – Maclure Tot
- tal annou
- unced
~2 ~2.0 .0
TOTAL
~3 ~3.5 .5
In progress – Motiva JV end – N.Z.: upstream strategic review – Thailand strategic review – Selective North Sea strategic review
Div ivestments Reduce capit ital in investment Reduce
- peratin
ing costs Deliv iver new proje jects
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016
20 40 60 2013 2014 15Q2 4Q rolling 2015 16Q2 4Q rolling 2016E 2017 - 20 avg 20 40 60 2013 2014 15Q2 4Q rolling 2015 16Q2 4Q rolling Shell + BG 2016E 2017 - 20 avg $25-30 billion
14 2016 excludes BG purchase price
$ billion
Capit ital in investment
Manage down-cycle
Lower & more predictable capital investment
Planning for $25-$30 billion range $30 billion/year ceiling Trending low in range today Options to further reduce below $25 billion if warranted
Shell BG
- 25%
Div ivestments Reduce capit ital in investment Reduce
- peratin
ing costs Deliv iver new proje jects
Shell + BG C.I. on a cash basis 58 47 41 36 53 43 37 33 31 ~29 29 ~26
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016 15
Manage down-cycle
Reduce operating cost
Excluding identified items
$ billion
Operatin ing cost
10 20 30 40 50 2014 15Q2 4Q rolling 2015 16Q2 4Q rolling Shell + BG end-2016 run-rate Shell BG
Div ivestments Reduce capit ital in investment Reduce
- peratin
ing costs Deliv iver new proje jects
Substantial reductions delivered “Lower for ever” mindset + BG synergies Staff, supply chain + contractors Divestments, growth, FX impacts
- $4 billion
~40 49 46 44 42
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016 * BG organic growth from 1.1.2016 | LNG volume includes offtake
Significant oil & gas +
Downstream production under construction
Capex to free cash flow High margin / price upside
barrels
Manage down-cycle
Deliver new projects
Cash operatin
ing cost <$15/boe
Tax rate ~35%
16
Thousand boe per day* 2016-17 start-ups 2014-15 start-ups LNG volume (RHS) 2018+ start-ups Million tonnes per annum
Div ivestments Reduce capit ital in investment Reduce
- peratin
ing costs Deliv iver new proje jects
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016 Competitive financial data as published. Free cash flow: cash flow from operations less cash used in investing activities. $/ADR for European companies. ROACE underlying: European companies: CCS basis excluding identified items. US companies: reported earnings excluding special non-operating items. Capital employed on gross debt basis.
Financial dashboard
%
Gearin ing
%
ROACE
$/share
Free cash flow per share
%
Total shareholder return
10 20 30
Q211 Q212 Q213 Q214 Q215 Q216
- 30
- 15
- 10
10 20 30
Q211 Q212 Q213 Q214 Q215 Q216
- 10
- 5
5 10
Q211 Q212 Q213 Q214 Q215 Q216 10 20 3 years to Q2 2016 12 months to Q2 2016 Shell Peer group
Royal Dutch Shell September 7, 2016 18
Transformation
CREATE A WORLD CLASS INVE VESTMENT CASE
Improved capital efficiency: reduced investment/FCF ratio Energy transition: CO2 footprint & new energies strategy Simpler company: Exit ~10% production; 5-10 countries Less cost + fewer people with BG than Shell stand-alone: 12,500 fewer staff Capital efficiency: 2013 spending halved & $45 billion mitigated Improving our metrics: FCF/share; ROCE; net debt $30bn divestments: Innovative deals like Motiva, Showa and MLP Portfolio growth: 1 mboe/d adds $10 bln cash flow
2019-2021 average 2013-2015 average
Brent ROACE ~$60 ~10% ~$90 8% Organic free cash flow $20-25 billion p.a. $5 billion p.a.
$60 oil price scenario (2016 RT Brent