Bank of America Merrill Lynch Paper, Packaging & Builders - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Paper, Packaging & Builders Conference

December 10, 2015

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or

projection in the forward-looking information.

• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or

making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form,

annual MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be
• presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s

annual and quarterly MD&A.

2

Notices

Company Overview

Norbord Snapshot

• Leading manufacturer of wood-based panel products
• Largest global producer of Oriented Strand Board (OSB)

– Installed OSB capacity of 8.0 Bsf-3/8” (1) (2) – Installed panel capacity (including particleboard & MDF) of 8.9 Bsf-3/8” (1) (2) – Approximately 2,600 employees at 17 plants across the US, Canada and Europe

• Listed on the TSX (“NBD”)
• Report in US dollars and in accordance with IFRS
• LTM Q3-2015 sales of $1.5 billion (2)

4

Company Overview

North America Europe

Oriented Strand Board (OSB) Particleboard Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF) Furniture

Europe 20% Canada 37% US 43%

8.9 Bsf-3/8” (1)(2)

Panel Capacity by Region

(1) Does not include the 600 MMsf-3/8” Grande Prairie, Alberta Line 2 (“GP2”) expansion project (2) Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth

$- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500

West Fraser Louisiana-Pacific Norbord Canfor Corp. Interfor Western Forest Products Conifex

Enterprise Value ($USmm)

The Leading Global OSB Company

5

Company Overview

Top 10 Global OSB Producers Enterprise Value

Source: Bloomberg and company filings. Enterprise values as at October 30, 2015

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Norbord Louisiana-Pacific Georgia-Pacific Weyerhaeuser Kronospan Huber Tolko KronoSwiss Egger Martco

OSB Capacity (Bsf-3/8")

Norbord’s Products

6

Company Overview

OSB – 90% of Capacity

• Norbord’s operations now include 15 OSB mills and two other plant locations in the UK producing particleboard,

MDF and related value-added products

• New home construction
• Repair and remodel
• Light commercial construction
• Industrial applications

Particleboard – 6% of Capacity

• New home construction
• Repair and remodel
• Furniture
• Fixtures

MDF – 4% of Capacity

• Furniture
• Fixtures
• Mill work

Industry Overview

Typical Uses for OSB Products

8

Industry Overview

Wall Sheathing Webstock Flooring Rimboard Door Header Roof Window Header Garage Door Header

• OSB is an innovative, affordable and environmentally “sustainable” structural panel

– Serves many of the same uses as plywood, but produced at a lower cost

• Norbord expects OSB will continue to capture market share from plywood

– Currently, OSB represents 67% of total North American structural panels

Global OSB Industry

9

Industry Overview

Industry OSB Capacity (MMsf-3/8”)

10 20 30 North America Europe South America Asia Norbord operates in the two significant global OSB producing regions

Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings

Kronospan 39% KronoSwiss 20% Egger 12% Sonae 7% Smartply 5% Kalavela 4% Others 2%

Industry Capacity 8 Bsf-3/8”

North American & European OSB Industries

10

Industry Overview

Louisiana-Pacific 22% Georgia-Pacific 19% Weyer- haeuser 11% Huber 8% Tolko 8% Martco 3% Other 3%

Industry Capacity 28 Bsf-3/8”

North American OSB Industry

26%

Source: Company documents and other public filings – installed industry capacity

European OSB Industry

11%

Norbord is a significant player in both key markets

Demand Growth Ahead in Both Key Markets

11

Industry Overview

OSB Share of Structural Panels

Source: FEA and Norbord Estimates

0% 25% 50% 75% 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

North America Europe

US Housing Recovery is Real

12

Industry Overview

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015F US Housing Starts (mm) U.S. Housing Starts Underlying Demand

Favourable long-term OSB industry fundamentals

US Housing Starts and Underlying Demand

1.5 mm Over-Built

21.4 22.8 24.0 24.8 25.9 26.9 28.0 28.6 29.2 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.9 27.1 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.0 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% – 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Effective Demand / Capacity Capacity (Bsf-3/8") Effective Capacity Mothballed Capacity Effective Demand / Capacity

North American OSB Demand and Capacity

3.7 mm Under-Built

Source: US Census Bureau and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); As of October 2015

North American Capacity Restarted to Meet Growing Demand

13

Industry Overview

39 Mills in Operation 8 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed North American OSB Installed Capacity: Norbord Mill 6 Mills (Re)started in 2013

Source: Company documents and other public filings

Attractive North American OSB Price Outlook

14

Industry Overview

North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); As of September 2015

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Annual Average NC Price US$ per Msf 7/16" Historical Price Forecasted Price

15-year average: $229

• OSB prices are tied to demand for building products, which is influenced by the general economy,

demographics and the need for housing

• With US housing recovering, OSB prices are projected to rise above trend

Core European Housing Markets Recovering

15

Industry Overview

50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Housing Starts (000’s) UK +9% in 2014 Germany +4% in 2014

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

European OSB Share of Structural Panels

Source: National House Builder Confederation (NHBC), Construction Products Association (CPA) & Bundesbank

• Significant growth opportunity – OSB accounts for only ~8% of the structural panel market in Japan

compared to >60% in North America

543 556 505 517 430 460 465 487 550 489 693 729 556 577 358 353 369 396 430 403 1,236 1,285 1,061 1,093 788 813 834 883 980 892 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Wooden All Other

Japanese Housing Market Stable

16

Industry Overview

Japanese Housing Starts (000’s)

Source: Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

Business Strategy

Norbord’s Strategy is Well Defined

18

Business Strategy

Pursue growth in OSB

2

Own high-quality assets with low-cost positions

3

Maintain a margin-focused operating culture

4

Focus on growth customers through best-in-class service and product development

5

Allocate capital with discipline

6

Develop a world-class safety culture

1

Norbord’s Growth Focused on OSB

19

Business Strategy

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Norbord OSB Capacity (Bsf-3/8”)

Margin Improvement is an Operational Priority

20

Business Strategy

37 28 56 9 14 29 16 25 23 24

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

(1) Measured relative to prior year at constant prices and exchange rates (2) The benefits of improved productivity and a richer value-added product mix were offset by higher maintenance spending in 2013

(2)

Margin Improvement Program Gains ($ in millions) “In Control of Our Controllables”

• Margin Improvement Program

(MIP) gains help offset impact of industry-wide rising input costs:

– Increased productivity – Reduced overhead costs – Reduced raw material usage – Improved product mix

• MIP has delivered $261 million of

margin improvements over the past 11 years with minimal capital investments

• 2015 Q3 YTD MIP gains of

$34 million

(1)

Further MIP Ahead Through Identified Merger Synergies

21

Business Strategy

Operational Best Practices Corporate Overhead Sales & Logistics

Purchasing Savings Product Specialization Single Public Company

$45 Million in Annual Merger Synergies (1) As of Q3 2015, $5 million in realized synergies ($20 million annualized)

Ainsworth’s Forming Technology Operational Standardization Continuous Press Experience Order File Optimization

(1) Costs to achieve ~50%; Achievable over 18-24 months

Diversification From European & Asian End Market Exposure

22

Business Strategy

72% 24% 4%

7.1 Bsf-3/8” (1)

LTM Q3-2015 Shipments by Geography (1)

(1) Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth

• Strong North American footprint
• Stable margin operations:

– Europe – Asia-focused exports

• Provides greater diversification than

North American-based competitors

• Better positioned to weather market

cycles Europe North America Asia

Focused Customer Strategy Sets Norbord Apart

23

Business Strategy

(1) Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth

New Home Construction (Pro-Dealers) 50% Repair & Remodel (Big Box) 25% Industrial 20% Export 5% 5.4 Bsf-3/8” (1)

LTM Q3-2015 North American Shipments (1)

• New housing sales volume growing as US housing starts recover
• Industrial and export sales at more stable margins

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fcast 2016 Target Capex Greenfield Expansion

24

Business Strategy

Capex Investment (US$ millions)

• Three main priorities:

–Investing in our mills –Optimizing debt profile –Returning cash to shareholders

Capital Allocation

(1) (1) 2015 and 2016 numbers reflect Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth. (1)

Financial Overview

631 495 247 42

• 60

107 45 188 287 290 307 48

• 23

5 58 13 106 145 802 295 19

• 60

5 165 58 294 432 117 80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM Q3- 2015

Norbord Combined Adjusted EBITDA (2) Ainsworth Adjusted EBITDA (1) Norbord (excluding Ainsworth) Adjusted EBITDA

Strong Operating Cash Flow Through The Cycle

26

Financial Overview

North Central Benchmark OSB Price $369 $320 $217 $161 $172 $163 $219 $186 $271 $315 $218 $202 US Housing Starts (000s) 1,956 2,068 1,801 1,355 906 554 587 609 781 925 1,003 1,089

Total Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions) 11-year average: $277 million

(1) As disclosed in Ainsworth’s historical MD&As; converted to USD using annual average exchange rate (2) As disclosed in the Q2-2015 and Q3-2015 MD&A

Norbord Sensitivity to North American OSB Price Changes: +$10/Msf 7/16” = +$58 million Adjusted EBITDA (at full capacity) 921

Stable Results from European Operations

27

Financial Overview

• Norbord’s European operations provide greater sales and earnings diversification than
• ther North American-based competitors

European Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)

58 32 35 81 4 17 37 44 39 46 47 39 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM Q3- 2015

Strong Balance Sheet & Liquidity

28

Financial Overview

Q3 2015 Cash $ 2 Bank Lines (1) 240 A/R Securitization(2) 81 Liquidity $323 Manageable Debt Maturities (US$ millions) Strong Liquidity Profile (US$ millions) Moody’s Ba2 (Stable) S&P BB- (Stable) DBRS BB (Negative) Stable Issuer Credit Ratings

$200 $240 $315

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

7.70% 5.375% 6.25%

(1) $245 million of bank lines less $5 million outstanding letters of credit drawn at quarter-end (2) $125 million of A/R Securitization limit less $44 million drawn at quarter-end

Attractive Investment Opportunity

29

Summary

Leverage to unfolding US housing recovery

Every +$10 in NA OSB price = +$58 million in Adjusted EBITDA at full capacity

Diversification from European operations, North American industrial sales and Asian export sales High quality asset base with low operating costs Focused customer strategy and strong customer partnerships Superior margins versus peers Track record of disciplined capital allocation Strong financial liquidity and comfortable debt maturities

Norbord Inc. Suite 600 One Toronto Street Toronto, Ontario, M5C 2W4 Canada Tel: 416-365-0705 Fax: 416-365-3292 www.norbord.com