Atty. Elias Jose M. Inciong President United Broiler Raisers - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

November 20, 2018

• Atty. Elias Jose M. Inciong

President United Broiler Raisers Association

OUTLINE

• I. Quick Broiler Facts
• II. Industry Performance 2016 to 2017

Markets and Prices Input Costs Drivers of Growth

• III. Issues and Trends

Inputs, Sourcing, and Costs Markets (Current and New) Logistics and Costs Competition/Competitiveness Others (Socio-economic condition)

• IV. Outlook

Performance

1980s:

At age 56 days: Average LiveWeight - 1.4-1.6 kgs Feed Conversion Ratio – 2.1-2.3 Harvest Recovery - 90-92%

1990s:

At age 45 days: ALW – 1.55-1.65 FCR – 2.00 HR-94- 95%

2000 - 2004:

At age 42 days: ALW - 1.7-1.75 kgs FCR – 1.9-2.0 HR - 94-95%

2005 - up:

At age 33-34 days: ALW – 1.80-2.0 FCR – 1.65- 1.75 HR-94-96%

2000 - 2004:

At age 42 days: ALW - 1.7-1.75 kgs FCR – 1.9-2.0 HR - 94-95%

2005 - up:

At age 33-34 days: ALW – 1.80-2.0 FCR – 1.65- 1.75 HR-94-96%

Performance improved because of the ff.:

• 1. Genetic improvement using

information technology to enhance selection

• 2. Better nutrition
• 3. Better management

Broiler Facts

Difference between Broiler and Layer Operations:

• 1. Broiler Parent Stocks produce the Day-
• ld-chick (DOC)that becomes your

fried chicken, adobo, tinola etc.

• 2. Laying hens require no males to

produce table eggs.

• 3. There is NO overlap between the two
• perations.

Broiler Facts

Types of Operations:

• 1. Integrated/National – full value chain

Breeder/Feedmill/Broiler/Processing/Market Broiler – Internal and/or Contract Growing

• 2. Independent (“commercial”)/Regional –

may be integrated or only in certain segments of the value chain

• II. Industry Performance

• 1. In 2017, volume of chicken production

grew by 4.26% while value increased by 4.54%. (PSA data)

• 2. Farmgate prices declined by 0.96%

from PhP82.25 to PhP81.46. Wholesale prices also declined from PhP116.33 to PhP115.73.

• 3. Retail prices, however, were higher by

2.94% (High – PhP150.80 Low – PhP126.47)

Broiler Data 2017

Source: BAI Task Force Price and Volume Watch

Source: BAI Task Force Price and Volume Watch

CHICKEN MEAT IMPORTATION CY 2018 Sum of Weight(KG) Month Meat Description Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Chicken Chicken Cuts 399,812 457,568 717,917 579,611 1,508,353 2,089,044 1,922,726 1,056,104 1,490,896 Chicken Leg Quarter 4,152,125 2,661,587 4,448,879 5,535,627 6,695,516 6,239,583 5,948,764 5,377,596 4,190,590 Deboned 14,825,911 11,123,322 14,666,743 16,877,284 21,285,236 18,673,276 16,121,123 13,781,735 15,339,053 Fats 26,400 211,200 212,400 79,200 260,821 184,400 131,600 158,000 Rind/Skin 104,000 264,200 202,000 132,000 107,210 47,164 24,820 211,223 109,810 Offals 26,004 103,034 27,300 51,014 128,046 25,680 41,928 Chicken Total 19,481,848 14,559,081 20,246,739 23,439,955 29,702,815 27,360,902 24,329,880 20,583,938 21,330,277

Comparative Farmgate Prices of Chicken

Year 2 2014- 2018 2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

JAN 77.18 78.53 81.98 74.73 79.28 FEB 85.35 80.45 90.58 91.43 88.52 MAR 82.27 61.71 84.77 89.35 86.59 APR 84.18 61.24 76.48 90.96 76.24 MAY 86.42 79.42 94.31 92.43 93.62 JUN 93.64 84.32 92.16 81.62 92.23 JUL 96.15 88.49 90.87 84.19 95.46 AUG 97.88 84.85 76.91 60.57 99.71 SEPT 81.26 81.72 67.60 56.27 77.10 OCT 85.50 79.98 71.53 93.25 79.24 NOV 83.91 77.67 70.78 88.57 DEC 81.19 82.26 79.20 92.11

• ave. 86.24

78.39 81.43 82.96 86.80

10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

JAN FEB MARAPR MAY JUN JUL AUGSEPTOCT NOV DEC

SOURCE : DeltaMan

COMPARATIVE FARMGATE PRICES OF CHICKEN Year 2014-2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Weekly Farm Gate Prices of Broiler

Year 2014- 2018

MONTH 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 5-Jan 70.56 82.18 86.24 67.10 69.89 12-Jan 69.57 81.39 80.88 64.71 66.00 19-Jan 81.37 77.07 81.60 68.50 86.83 26-Jan 82.00 73.47 79.18 85.22 94.39 2-Feb 82.40 72.38 86.88 88.12 95.75 9-Feb 90.22 77.00 91.13 95.00 95.44 16-Feb 92.79 82.93 93.63 94.00 86.15 23-Feb 84.87 85.00 89.07 92.17 81.54 2-Mar 73.50 76.87 88.47 84.55 85.06 9-Mar 80.53 66.50 88.44 80.67 88.28 16-Mar 82.20 58.78 86.89 89.21 89.21 23-Mar 82.71 59.84 86.95 89.69 83.81 2-Apr 83.65 52.94 76.81 93.59 76.94 6-Apr 83.83 52.35 69.63 93.59 68.54 13-Apr 87.72 50.44 61.60 93.31 73.67 20-Apr 85.39 65.43 75.13 92.62 85.81 27-Apr 82.61 76.74 84.11 89.06 90.58 4-May 81.47 78.74 91.93 88.83 95.59 11-May 86.67 80.67 96.50 91.00 95.69 18-May 86.14 80.47 95.25 91.13 93.50 25-May 87.88 79.10 93.71 93.89 89.71 1-Jun 92.07 79.82 91.40 85.67 92.22 8-Jun 94.47 83.14 90.62 78.63 98.47 18-Jun 94.00 86.87 91.63 81.38 88.41 22-Jun 93.64 87.43 95.00 79.32 89.82 27-Jun 90.97

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 06-Jul 94.27 90.76 96.22 83.75 94.13 13-Jul 96.27 91.13 92.38 84.45 90.93 20-Jul 95.50 89.47 87.15 84.38 97.82 27-Jul 98.54 82.60 87.73 76.73 99.12 03-Aug 98.92 84.20 80.53 67.79 101.94 10-Aug 98.50 82.29 78.35 72.68 103.07 17-Aug 96.66 84.07 75.07 44.66 94.12 24-Aug 96.56 88.84 73.69 39.07 71.36 31-Aug 82.79 87.61 69.94 58.07 88.22 07-Sep 74.80 78.94 66.56 57.15 82.33 14-Sep 81.27 83.19 70.00 56.93 79.16 21-Sep 86.16 77.13 65.79 70.13 69.81 28-Sep 90.29 74.83 65.71 91.13 85.67 05-Oct 90.57 82.56 68.65 92.23 82.24 12-Oct 88.21 83.13 77.00 92.64 79.00 19-Oct 72.92 79.40 68.93 97.00 78.22 26-Oct 81.38 77.52 59.92 98.61 77.50 02-Nov 83.94 78.67 73.07 84.21 70.07 09-Nov 83.92 78.13 70.60 78.81 16-Nov 75.28 76.21 68.67 89.63 23-Nov 83.91 76.00 68.07 91.88 30-Nov 85.31 78.78 69.44 98.90 07-Dec 81.56 83.79 81.94 91.88 14-Dec 76.71 84.21 84.13 98.90 21-Dec 79.54 85.2 81.29 99.50 28-Dec 80.12 82.12 72.15 81.67

Cost of production for broiler ranges from P82-84/kl

1) Yellow Corn 2) Soya 3) Rice bran, Fish meal, Wheat, Copra meal, Coco oil, amino acids 4) Pharmaceuticals, biologicals,

• rganics

5) Day-old-chicks (DOCs)

Comparative Prices of Yellow Corn

Year 2014- 2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan 12.95 15.75 14.10 14.30 14.27 Feb 13.73 14.69 14.40 13.83 15.08 Mar 13.52 14.40 14.35 13.54 16.06 Apr 13.61 14.20 15.28 13.43 15.95 May 14.90 14.13 14.91 13.39 16.22 Jun 15.20 13.12 14.86 13.28 17.82 Jul 15.80 13.60 14.56 13.07 18.19 Aug 16.35 14.30 14.23 13.10 19.95 Sep 16.00 13.80 14.50 12.91 22.17 Oct 15.73 13.70 14.00 13.18 19.09 Nov 15.67 13.40 15.30 13.00 Dec 16.03 13.43 14.75 13.67 AVE. 14.96 14.04 14.60 13.39 17.48

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Jan FebMar AprMayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec

Source:Deltaman

COMPARATIVE PRICES OF YELLOW CORN YEAR 2014- 2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Comparative Prices of U.S. Soya

Year 2014- 2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan 29.58 24.00 23.63 22.70 23.65 Feb 29.45 24.00 23.25 22.81 24.76 Mar 29.10 23.96 23.00 22.90 26.65 Apr 29.20 21.91 21.40 22.83 27.14 May 29.97 20.75 23.50 22.74 27.12 Jun 30.50 21.08 23.70 21.36 27.44 Jul 29.32 24.75 24.70 21.73 27.08 Aug 28.00 25.20 23.33 22.90 26.88 Sep 27.75 25.26 22.60 22.57 26.19 Oct 27.75 24.25 23.00 22.77 24.61 Nov 27.83 23.93 22.90 22.91 Dec 27.95 24.00 23.00 23.09 AVE. 28.87 23.59 23.17 22.61 26.15

9.00 12.00 15.00 18.00 21.00 24.00 27.00 30.00 33.00

SOURCE: DeltaMan

COMPARATIVE PRICES OF US SOYA Year 2014-2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Comparative Prices of D.O.C.

Year 2014 -2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

JAN 16.45 23.86 23.35 23.16 35.87 FEB 22.56 24.88 23.63 24.89 36.70 MAR 25.60 25.19 25.23 27.75 37.20 APR 25.75 15.86 26.75 30.10 35.60 MAY 25.75 20.00 28.09 32.20 28.46 JUN 24.50 21.80 28.66 32.29 28.73 JUL 25.33 25.14 29.38 29.39 30.90 AUG 25.32 24.61 29.71 23.73 31.25 SEPT 29.55 25.77 26.39 15.59 33.49 OCT 33.60 27.46 25.93 26.74 32.40 NOV 36.10 30.39 26.77 37.61 DEC 30.60 25.08 25.42 38.25

• ave. 26.76

24.17 26.61 28.48 33.06

• 5.00

10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00

JANFEBMAR APR MAY JUNJUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC SOURCE : Deltaman

COMPARATIVE PRICES OF DOC

Year 2014 - 2018

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Population/ GDP growth – per capita consumption of chicken Professional support Food Safety Act Convenience Exports Competition

• III. Issues and Trends

Climate Change Short-term: Impact of El Nino/La Niña Increase demand for commodities from China, India, and other developing countries Mitigation: Local production of corn, coco oil, molasses

1) Domestic – Greater segmentation Public/Wet Markets, HRIs, Convenience (Cooked e.g. lechon manok) market Impact of RA 10611 The Food Safety Act: Better choices for the consumers. Culling of poor performers. 2)Exports – competition based on

• ffering greater value and not on

lower price because of subsidized competitors or export of excess.

1) Power and Fuel – lower fuel costs 2) Transportation concerns – feed raw materials from the port, new charges 3) Local Government impositions – passing through fees, BFP requirements, and security of tenure of agricultural activities

1) Domestic Farm gate – elastic Wholesale and Retail – inelastic UBRA request with DTI to impose SRP during times of

• versupply so that consumers will benefit from market

conditions 2) International At present tariff rates, we are import competitive. Moreso, when Food Safety standards are in place. Domestic Support (subsidies) as enabler of smuggling AEC/ WTO/TPP - no profiling of domestic support (subsidies and incentives)

1)Environmental Issues (Dry Facility) 2)Water (for crops and people) 3)Credit 4)Crop Insurance 5)National Land Use Plan 6)Sustainability (Corn-Soya paradigm)

1) US demand for slow-growth chicken 2) Laboratory Meats 3) Plant-based “Meats”

1) Impact of NCD and mycotoxins 2) Possible disruptions from new entrants 3) Corn-Cassava Situation (land use) 4) Stricter regulatory regime 5) Tougher climatic conditions 6) Despite all of the above, we will still have more chickens. It remains the meat of the future.

“Globally, agriculture faces unprecedented challenges such as increases in the demand for livestock-based foods in Asia, climate change that threatens to decrease production capacity in many places around the world, and increasing demand due to continuing rapid population growth in some poor countries.”

(United States Council on Agricultural Science and Technology, Issue Paper, January 2010)