Atmospheric Chemical Composition, Climate, and Societal Implications - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Atmospheric Chemical Composition, Climate, and Societal Implications - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Atmospheric Chemical Composition, Climate, and Societal Implications Steven C. Wofsy Harvard University HIPPO images by Bruce C. Daube Presented to 40 th Annual Meeting of the Global Monitoring Division, ESRL, National Oceanic & Atmospheric

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Atmospheric Chemical Composition, Climate, and Societal Implications Steven C. Wofsy Harvard University

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Presented to 40th Annual Meeting of the Global Monitoring Division, ESRL, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Admin. 15 May 2012

HIPPO images by Bruce C. Daube

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Abstract Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2 , CH4 and N2 O are largely under human control, affecting climate and global atmospheric chemical processes. This talk discusses measurements of these gases in two major aircraft campaigns: HIAPER Pole‐to‐Pole Observations program (“HIPPO”, sponsored by NSF and NOAA) and CalNEX (sponsored by NOAA and CARB), and their synergy with measurements at NOAA surface, tower, and aircraft profile stations. New information on the drivers of long‐term changes in the global atmosphere are explored, emphasizing interpretation of data for CO2 and other GHGs from the NOAA network, and new information on CH4 emissions in the Arctic region.

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GV launch in the rain, Anchorage, January, 2009 (HIPPO-1)

HIPPO: NCAR Gulfstream V "HIAPER"

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HIPPO_2 Nov 2009 HIPPO_3 Mar-Apr 2010 HIPPO_1 Jan 2009 preHIPPO Apr-Jun 2008

HIPPO itinerary

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Part 1. CO2 at the global scale: The Network, CarbonTracker, and atmospheric “global fine structure”

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CO2 CarbonTracker along the HIPPO flight track

Courtesy Colm Sweeney/Anna Karion

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CO2 CarbonTracker compared to HIPPO cross section

Mar 2009 Aug 2009 Aug 2011 Mar 2009

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January 2009 March 2010 August 2011

Seasonal transport of CO2 through the middle and high latitude troposphere has strong isentropic character, and in winter, a jet stream component. (B. Stephens, H1 science team meeting).

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Network design study using Carbon Tracker

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Part 2. CH4 (and other stuff) in the Arctic

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GLOBAL METHANE SOURCES, Tg a-1 [IPCC, 2007] ANIMALS 80-90 LANDFILLS 40-70 GAS 50-70 COAL 30-50 RICE 30-110 TERMITES 20-30 WETLANDS 100-230 BIOMASS BURNING 10-90 Sink: oxidation by OH (lifetime of 10 years)

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500 1000 1500 ‐4000 ‐2000 0 Age (yrs BP) CH4

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HIPPO Profiles over the Arctic Ocean and North Slope ( n = 96 )

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Photos: S. Wofsy

August, 2011

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UT NN GGLAT GGLON ALT m To C 74520 1467 75.04469 ‐161.5916 653.708 ‐4.736278 UT NN GGLAT GGLON ALT m To C 74580 1469 75.11114 ‐161.5076 403.508 ‐3.894623 UT NN GGLAT GGLON ALT m To C 74640 1473 75.17651 ‐161.4241 257.740 ‐3.14 UT NN GGLAT GGLON ALT m To C 77280 1481 78.70973 ‐156.4544 3854.904 ‐25.08

Photos from 19 Aug 2011

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Photos: S. Wofsy

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73.6 N, Aug 2011 HIPPO‐5 Wind dir 0 150 300

CH4

CO

Θe RH

Wind Dir (deg)

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pollution: 0.3 ppb CH4 /ppb CO could account for at most ~0.6 ppb ΔCH4

CO2 CH4 CO 82N 15 April 2010 ΔCH4 = 0.15 x ΔCO2 r2=.83

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82N 15 April 2010

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385 386 387 CO2 CH4 1880 1890 1900

ΔCH4 = 0.12 x ΔCO2

30 34 38 O3

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Slide from: E. A. Kort Relationships between tracers with distinct sources: A tool for understanding large scale sources and sinks of GHGs.

Arctic pollution Arctic

  • cean

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Non‐pollution sources of CH4 fill the whole Arctic… Is this excess due to marine emissions? Do ocean sources respond to changes in ice cover?

CH4 Mar 2010 CH4 Aug 2011 CO Mar 2010 CO Aug 2011

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CH4

HIPPO

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Arctic Pollution 6‐8 km, all year round…

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Black C (NOAA SP2) CO (Harv/Aerodyne/NCAR )

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Summary: The Arctic

The HIPPO data show:

  • Dense pollution

at both very high and low altitudes in the Arctic. Unexpected distributions of Black Carbon (NOAA SP-2; radiative forcing?). (Not shown here).

  • Sources of CH4

in the Arctic from from the ocean surface, significant compared to fossil fuel extraction and land surface. … and a lot more

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Photos: by; B. C. Daube & J. V. Pittman

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Stepping back: If you set the goal to monitor the atmosphere, globally or regionally, for science and policy, what are the considerations for science strategy and design of networks?

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N2 O in the atmosphere: where does it really come from?

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Concentrations of atmospheric N2 O have been increasing since the end of the 18th Century

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NOAA HATS/Elkins

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PRESENT-DAY GLOBAL BUDGET OF ATMOSPHERIC N2 O (1535 TgN )

SOURCES (Tg N yr-1) 16 (13 - 19) Natural 10 (5 – 16) Ocean 3 (1 - 5) Tropical soils 4 (3 – 6) Temperate soils 2 (1 – 4) Anthropogenic 8 (2 – 21) Agricultural soils 4 (1 – 15) Livestock 2 (1 – 3) Industrial 1 (1 – 2) SINK (Tg N yr-1) Photolysis and oxidation in stratosphere (τ = 127 yr) 12 (10 - 14) ACCUMULATION (Tg N yr-1) 4 (3 – 5)

A budget can be constructed, but uncertainties in sources are large !

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HIPPO-5 Aug 2011 HIPPO-4 Jun 2011 HIPPO-1 Jan 2009

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CalNEX NOAA P‐3 at Ontario, CA June 2010

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Examples of CalNEX flights and N2 O data (NOAA P3, 2010)

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nmol m‐2 s‐

1

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Flux Model Results (Optimized using CalNEX aircraft data) Total (est) = 0.12 TgN/yr Edgar 4.0 Flux Model Total = 0.026 TgN/yr

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Do you want greenhouse gases with that, sir?

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Summary: N2 O

Analysis of data from HIPPO and CalNEX flights, and NOAA surface stations and tall towers, shows:

  • Global sources are stronger (2x) in the tropics than

given in inventories, and the influence is invisible to surface stations (see next slide for CO2 ).

  • Agricultural sources in the US are 2x to 4x bigger

than in current inventories.

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An optimal Earth observing system includes a diversity of data types and very tight control of data quality.

5/23/2012 49 Courtesy: Arlyn E. Andrews

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CO2

78N 02 Nov. 2009

385 386 387 ppm 1880 1890 1900

CH4

CH4 :CO2 = .0085