Assessment of Vulnerability to the Health Impacts of Climate Change - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Assessment of Vulnerability to the Health Impacts of Climate Change

Peterborough City and County

Climate Change in Canada

• Since 2008, strong evidence of health risks

due to changing climate

• Local evidence is JUST starting to emerge on

impacts to health

• Increased knowledge of climate change and

vulnerabilities

• Greater efforts to increase public awareness

OPHS

• PCCHU is required to increase public

awareness of the health risk factors associated with climate change

• Vulnerability assessments should provide

information for decision makers on the extent and magnitude of likely health risks attributable to climate change

Key Threats

• Extreme Weather – heat, cold, flooding
• Air Quality and UV radiation
• Waterborne and Foodborne Illness
• Vectorborne Disease

MEME model

Demographics

• City of Peterborough, eight municipal

townships and two First Nation communities

Demographics – con’t

• 2011 – City 78,700, County 54,000, FN 1400
• To the south – agriculture, urban communities
• To the north – lakes, rivers, diverse

landscapes, seasonal recreational use

• 48,848 private dwellings (CMA) (75% owner
• ccupied)
• 23.9% minor repairs, 7.9% major repairs

Demographics – con’t

• CMA – males 48%, females 52%
• From 2006, saw a decrease in 0-14 and

increase in 65+

• Median age increased to 44.6 from 40.4
• 2030 – 28.6% will be 65+ (ONT 21.9%)

Demographics – con’t

• Education – one of the main determinants of

health at population level

• 24% of 15+ who do not have at least high

school

• 16.3% - University level (ONT 24.6%)

Vectorborne Disease

• Mosquito borne – West Nile virus, eastern

Equine encephalitis

• Tick borne – Lyme, Powassan encephalitis
• Peterborough County not risk area for Lyme
• Powassan emerging in the USA – PHAC will be

testing ticks to determine activity

VBD – Climate

• 2100 – average global temperature increase of

1.0-3.5⁰C

• Biology and ecology of vectors and hosts will

be affected and risks of disease transmission can increase

• Larvae mature faster in warm temperatures
• EEE and Powassan are evidence of northwards

expansion of VBD

VBD – Built Envr

• 25 VBD associated with changes in

urbanization, deforestation and agricultural practices

• Human encroachment into wildlife habitats
• Impervious surfaces – pooling water
• Rural – water irrigation management,

vaccination of livestock

VBD– Socio-economic

• Lower income – condition of homes (screens),

tenants, closer proximity housing (failure to remove breeding sites)

• Access to physicians
• PPM can be a financial burden
• Education level – access to information
• Outdoor employment

VBD - Demographics

• Aging population = potential for more serious

VBD cases

• 0-14 are reliant on caregivers for PPM
• 93% English speaking – educational materials

in other languages

VBD - Exposures

• Mosquitoes – anywhere
• Ticks – forests and tall grass
• Travel may increase risk
• Mosquito pools fluctuate with weather, as do

WNv positive ones

YEAR WNv Positive Mosquito Pools 2010 2011 3 2012 7 2013 1 2014

VBD - Vulnerable

• > 50 years of age, chronic disease,

immunosuppressed – mosquitoes

• Persons who work outdoors or partake in
• utdoor activities in forests/trails – ticks
• Those reliant on others for protection

(children, persons with disability)

VBD – Health Outcomes

• Mild to severe illnesses
• Missed work, missed school
• Increased strain on healthcare system

VBD - Preventative

• PCCHU education, awareness, testing,

surveillance for vectors

• Human surveillance
• City of Peterborough – larviciding, Stagnant

Water Bylaw

• MOHLTC – adulticide

emergency plan

Waterborne/Foodborne Illness

• Exposure to chemicals or microbes in drinking

water and recreational water

• Human illness indicating a food was the

source of exposure to the contaminant causing the illness – bacteria, virus, parasite, toxins

WB/FB - Climate

• WB diseases particularly sensitive to changes

in the hydrologic cycle

• Heavy rainfall can overwhelm WTP due to

increased turbidity resulting in inadequate disinfection

• Increased temperature is linked to increased

incidences of blue-green algae

Year Number of reported blue-green algal blooms in Peterborough County 2008 1 2009 2010 2 2011 3 2012 2 2013 2 2014

WB/FB - Climate

• Warm weather allows bacteria to grow more

readily in foods

• Favours flies and pests
• Floodwater can impact food supplies – silt,

sewage, oil, chemical waste

WB/FB – Socio- economic/Demographic

• Access to information on safe food handling
• Differential exposure to contaminated water
• Low income – potentially no water treatment,

limited access (transportation) for lab sampling

• Large proportion aged 65+ - most vulnerable
• Also young, chronic disease,

immunocompromised, pregnant women

WB/FB - Exposures

• Drinking water
• Rec Water
• Fish – Guidelines
• Increased public events in summer, warmer

temp food handling

• Increased consumption of fruits and

vegetables, home gardening and preserving

WB/FB – Health outcomes

• Range of symptoms from mild to severe
• Nitrate in well water – methaemoglobinaemia
• Pathogens are threat to animal health

DISEASE 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CAMPYLOBACTER ENTERITIS 36 5.4 27 3.8 30 4.0 36 5.4 33 4.6 GIARDIASIS 21 3.1 8 1.1 11 1.5 25 3.8 20 2.8 SALMONELLOSIS 27 4.0 18 2.5 27 3.6 30 4.5 29 4.0

WB/FB - Preventative

• PCCHU inspection services
• PCCHU human disease surveillance and
• utbreaks
• BWAs
• MOE oversight of drinking water systems
• Rec water testing

Air Quality and UV Radiation

• Air pollution from forest fires, dust, emissions,

smog (mainly ground level ozone and fine particulate matter)

• More than half of ONT’s smog comes from

south of the border, travelling north in wind

• Thinning of ozone layer allows for greater

exposure to UV rays

AQ and UV - Climate

• Air pollution episodes in Canada are predicted

to get longer and more severe with climate change

• Increases in emissions also causes changes in
• ptimal growing conditions, increased heat

stress, threat of new pests, extreme weather

• Four-fold increase in forest fires

in USA

AQ and UV – Built Envr

• Planning and design of smart design

communities – reduced emissions

• Maintain forests, wetlands – important in

removal and storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide

• Agricultural products and forestry can be

alternative fuels

AQ and UV – Socio-economic

• Low-income – more likely to live closer to

major roads and industrial pollution sources AND have underlying health conditions exacerbated by poor air

• 8% of Peterborough houses require major

repair – possibility of poor ventilation in these homes leading to air quality issues

AQ and UV - Demographics

• 65+ experience adverse impacts from poor air

quality

• Melanoma rates increased which can be

attributed to differences in proportion of visible minorities in Peterborough in addition to the aging population

AQ and UV – Exposure

• MOECC AQI revealed 1 poor air quality day

and 34 moderate air days in both 2013 and 2014

• PM in home from wood burning appliances
• Warmer temperatures – spend more time
• utdoors
• No large point source emissions in Ptbo

AQ and UV - Vulnerable

• Young children
• Elderly
• Respiratory, cardiovascular conditions
• Those active outdoors
• UV – light coloured skin/eyes/hair, work or

play outdoors, medications causing increased sensitivity to the sun

• Children rely on caregivers for PPM

AQ and UV – Health Outcomes

• OMA predicts over 7000 premature deaths in

2015 from air pollution

• Modelling estimated 119 premature deaths in

Ptbo (smog related)

• 2014 Canadian Cancer Society report – Ptbo

third highest rate of malignant melanoma in ONT

• 26.7 cases per 100,000 (ONT 15.6 cases)

AQ and UV - Preventative

• AQI/AQHI
• PCCHU smog alerts
• Education on reducing impacts and protection

from poor air quality

• PCCHU cancer prevention
• Drive Clean, reduction/elimination of coal

fired plants, carpool lots, transit increases, bike lanes, land use planning policies

Extreme Weather

• Extreme heat
• Extreme cold
• Increased precipitation
• Increased incidence of tornados

Extreme Weather - Climate

• Over the past 66 years – annual average

temperatures across Canada increased 1.6⁰C

• Projections for communities across the

country to experience increases in heat events

• Precipitation intensity is expected to increase
• ver much of the globe
• As planet becomes warmer there is potential

for increased storms

Extreme Weather – Built Envr

• Population growth and urbanization generally

reduces the capacity of watersheds to absorb run-off

• Resilient building needed to withstand

extreme weather events

• On-site renewable power generation
• Social connectivity

Extreme Weather – Socio- economic/demographic

• Income - home repairs, recovery from

extreme events

• Education – access to adaptive behaviours in

the event of an extreme weather event, understanding health risks

• Homeless
• Young children and 65+ vulnerable

Extreme Weather - Exposure

• No air conditioning or access to cooling
• Power surges can cause power failures
• Poorly insulated homes
• Outdoor work or activities
• Flood waters into homes, sewage back-ups
• Re-connection of hydro following flood,

replacement of water heaters

Extreme Weather - Vulnerable

• Children and elderly
• Chronic diseases
• Medications (heat related illnesses)
• Athletes, outdoor workers
• Mental health and homelessness

Extreme Weather – Health Outcomes

• Vary based on individual and community

preparedness

• Adverse health effects in response to extreme heat

and cold

• Additionally drownings, fires, carbon monoxide

poisoning

• Flooding injuries, foodborne and waterborne illness,

mould, mental health

• Healthcare system – temperature related illness

Extreme Weather – Preventative

• Emergency management and response plans!
• Training, mock exercises, partnerships
• PCCHU alerts
• City of Ptbo Flood Reduction Master Plan
• Flood forecasting

YEAR ALERT Summer 2011, Winter 2011 – 2012 2 heat warnings, 2 heat alerts, 1 heat warning with smog alert, 2 frostbite alerts Summer 2012, Winter 2012 – 2013 1 heat warning, 2 heat alerts, 1 frostbite alert Summer 2013, Winter 2013 – 2014 2 heat warnings, 4 heat alerts, 9 frostbite alert, 1 frostbite warning Summer 2014, Winter 2014 - 2015 1 heat alert, 9 frostbite alerts (as of Feb 22, 2015)

Conclusion

• Important that all PCCHU programs identified

to protect health incorporate climate change perspectives to better inform policies and programs

• Gaps exist in knowledge and data – address

gaps to more fully understand vulnerability

Coming up…

• Review of adaptation practices and additional

exploration of preventative activities at the home, community and ambient levels

• Future – closer look at local predicted changes

in temperature and precipitation