Assessing Alexandria/Arlingtons Regional Labor Market Mark C. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

March 6, 2017

Assessing Alexandria/Arlington’s Regional Labor Market

Mark C. White, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University

Agenda

• Key demographic trends
• The labor force
• Economic trends
• The federal government and the federal

workforce

• Sources of workforce demand
• Ongoing regional challenges
• Conclusions and takeaways
• Questions, and hopefully answers

Key demographic trends

After a period of flat/negative growth, A-A grew significantly after the recession

90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 140.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Population (100=2000 Pop.) Northern Virginia Washington, DC MSA Alexandria-Arlington Commonwealth of Virginia District of Columbia

Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates Program

• 382,000 residents
• 60 percent in

Arlington

• 40 percent in

Alexandria

The region has experienced net domestic out-migration since 2011

3,996 4,216 4,410 4,199 4,223 3,871 4,167 4,292 4,827 4,883 2,710

• 525
• 1,815
• 6,685
• 4,068
• 10,000
• 5,000

5,000 10,000 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Population Change Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2015

1 out of 4 residents are aged 25-34

8.9% 24.9% 17.7% 12.6% 10.3% 9.8% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Percent of Total Population (2015) United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Area Alexandria-Arlington

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

The region has gotten slightly

• lder in the past five years

10.2% 27.4% 15.8% 12.8% 10.6% 8.7% 8.9% 24.9% 17.7% 12.6% 10.3% 9.8% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Percent of Total Population (2015)

2010 2015

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

The region is less diverse than the DC metro area

68.6% 13.5% 9.0% 4.5% 13.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% White Black Asian Two or more races Hispanic or Latino* Percent of Total Population (2015) United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Area Alexandria-Arlington

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey *It is important to note that Hispanic or Latino is an ethnicity, and people identifying as such may fit into multiple racial categories.

The labor force

Unemployment remains lower than the region, state & nation

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Percent Unemployment

United States Virginia Washington DC Metro Area Northern Virginia Alexandria-Arlington

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Reflecting demographic trends, LF participation remains very high

63.1% 66.0% 71.8% 79.5% 58.1% 61.3% 66.5% 74.9%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Alexandria-Arlington Labor Force Participation Rate (Age 16+) Labor Force Participation Female Labor Force Participation

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

Where A-A’s workers LIVE

Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics, OnTheMap, 2014

Where A-A’s residents WORK

Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics, OnTheMap, 2014

2 out of 3 A-A residents (age 25+) have at least a 4-year degree

7.7% 9.4% 11.3% 3.8% 31.5% 36.4%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

Less than HS HS graduate (incl. GED) Some college, no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree

• Grad. or prof.

degree

Percent of population age 25+

United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Area Alexandria-Arlington

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

Earnings and education go hand in hand

$71,206 $32,475 $26,689 $45,910 $75,025 $90,904 $56,341 $21,432 $24,920 $37,026 $70,159 $83,469

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000

Population 25 years and over with earnings Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate or professional degree

Median Earnings (2015)

Alexandria Arlington Washington, DC Metro Area Virginia United States

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

Economic trends

Arlington (#26) & Alexandria (#30) are two

• f America’s wealthiest counties

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Per Capita Personal Income (2015 Dollars) Arlington Alexandria-Arlington Alexandria Washington, DC Metro Area Virginia United States

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Adjusted for inflation using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index

In spite of steady growth, the region has relatively fewer sole proprietors

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percent of Total Employment USA Washington, DC MSA Virginia Alexandria Alexandria-Arlington Arlington

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Prof. and business services account

for almost 30% of total employment

1.0% 2.1% 2.6% 4.5% 8.5% 10.9% 12.3% 13.0% 15.5% 29.7% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Manufacturing Construction Information Financial Activities Other Services Leisure & Hospitality Trade, Transportation & Utilities Education & Health Services Government Professional & Business Services Percent of Total Employment

2011 2016 2021

Source: Chmura Economics, Jobs EQ

The federal government and the federal workforce

Federal employment (as a % of total) has declined in Arlington over the past 15 years

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percent of Total Employment Arlington Alexandria-Arlington Alexandria Washington, DC MSA Virginia USA

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Federal workers represent a larger share of total residents, than in many surrounding jurisdictions

Roughly 1 in 5 workers living in Alexandria and Arlington work for the Federal Government

• Arlington:
• 30,000 workers

(21%)

• 25,700

households (25%)

• Alexandria
• 21,000 workers

(21%)

• 17,900

households (26%)

Civilian 46,453 18.9% Civilian workforce 194,495 79% Miltary 4,570 1.9% Federal Employee 51,023 20.8%

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS

Federal job opportunities likely attract many younger workers to the region

3% 34% 25% 21% 14% 3% 8% 36% 24% 17% 11% 4%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Percent of Total Workforce

Federal Workforce General Workforce

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS

Federal workers living in Alexandria- Arlington tend to earn higher wages

$60,000 $100,000

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

All Employees Federal Employees

Median Annual Wage (2015)

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS

$108,100 $142,000

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000

All Households Households with a Federal Employee

Median Household Income (2015)

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS

Federal workers that live in A-A are more likely to use Metro

58% 26% 6% 8% 3% 63% 15% 7% 6% 12%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

Motor Vehicle Metro Bus Bike or Walk Other

Percent of Total Workforce

Primary mode of transportation

Federal Workforce General Workforce

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS

Sources of workforce demand

A-A has a polarized workforce with relatively few middle-skill jobs

52.6% 9.7% 33.7% 4.0% 52.2% 8.8% 35.1% 3.9%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% HS or Less Associates or some college Bachelors degree Graduate degree Percent of Occupational Employment (2016) Entry-Level Educational Requirement Current Occupational Employment (2016) Projected Total Openings (2016-2021)

Source:Chmura Economics, JobsEQ, 2016 Q2

Projected higher paying, growth industries and occupations

• Industries
• Mgmt, Sci., & Tech

consulting services

• Computer systems design &

related services

• Arch, Eng, & related services
• Business, Prof., Labor,

Political, & Similar Orgs.

• Some gov’t projected to

create opportunity through replacement hiring.

• Uncertainty remains
• Occupations
• IT-related
• Software developers,

computer systems analysts and programmers, network and computers systems administrators

• Analysts
• Management, market

research

• Managers
• General & operations, Comp

& info systems

IT-related occupations are among the most advertised, high-skill

• ccupations
• Commonly required skills: Cyber Security, Java, SQL,

Linux MS, MS Sharepoint

• Commonly demanded certifications: Security

clearance

Ed. Level Ten Most Advertised Occupations by Education Level Available Jobs (2016) Employers w/ Job Advertisements by Education Level Available Jobs (2016) Computer Occupations, All Other 5,959 ACCENTURE 3,126 Computer Systems Analyst 4,491 Booz Allen Hamilton 2,618 Management Analysts 4,488 Deloitte 2,173 Information Security Analysts 4,386 CACI 1,696 Software Developers, Applications 4,257 Anthem, Inc. 1,095 Network & Computer Systems Admin. 3,886 Inova Health System 1,071 Accountants & Auditors 2,599 General Dynamics 936 Marketing Managers 2,139 Alion Science 901 Managers, All Other 1,785 Engility Corporation 810 Web Developers 1,667 CSRA RESA 781 Source: Help Wanted Online (1/1/16 to 11/28/16) Bachelor's or Graduate Degree

Healthcare and business services are more average paying industries

• Growing industries
• Healthcare: Dentists
• ffices, outpatient care

centers, medical and diagnostic labs

• Business services:

Advertising, PR, and related services; Accounting, tax prep, bookkeeping and payroll services

• Transport: Transit systems,

air transportation

• Middle-skill occupations
• IT-related
• Computer-user support

specialists, web developers

• Healthcare
• Nursing ass’ts, LPNs, medical

and dental ass’ts

• Office support
• Paralegals and legal ass’ts,

bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks

• Maintenance
• Auto service techs, aircraft

mechs & techs,

IT and nursing occupations are among the most advertised middle-skill

• ccupations
• Commonly required skills: Cyber Security, Java, SQL,

Linux MS, MS Sharepoint

• Commonly demanded certifications: Security

clearance, drivers license, CDL, HAZMAT, Nursing

In d Ed. Level Ten Most Advertised Occupations by Education Level Available Jobs (2016) Employers w/ Job Advertisements by Education Level Available Jobs (2016) Computer User Support Specialists 1,276 Inova Health System 323 Web Developers 1,155 Forward Air, Inc. 205 Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 1,148 Virginia Hospital Center 192 Registered Nurses 892 US Patent and Trade Office 151 Hairdressers, Hairstylist & Cosmetologists 232 INOVA Geo 130 LP/LV Nurses 219 Transportation Security Administration 106 Network & Computer Systems Admin. 153 Pentagon Federal Credit Union 105 Information Security Analysts 150 United States Army 101

• Exec. Secretaries & Exec. Assistants

136 Hair Cuttery 99 General Maintenance & Repair Workers 119 US Department of State 95 Source: Help Wanted Online (1/1/16 to 11/28/16) Associate's Degree

Hospitality and personal services provide important opportunities for lower-wage workers

• Industries
• Restaurants
• Travel accommodation
• Continued care facilities
• Personal care services
• Grocery stores
• Services to buildings and

dwellings

• Employment services
• Occupations
• Janitors & cleaners, maids

and housekeepers

• Waiters & waitresses
• Restaurant cooks, food

prep workers

• Cashiers, sales reps,

customer service representatives

Retail and hospitality employers are prominent advertisers of lower-skill jobs

• Commonly required skills: Food preparation, QC,

Bilingual, Tech support, preventative maintenance

• Commonly demanded certifications: Drivers License,

Clearance, OSHA, HAZMAT

In d Ed. Level Ten Most Advertised Occupations by Education Level Available Jobs (2016) Employers w/ Job Advertisements by Education Level Available Jobs (2016) Retail Salespersons 1,505 Marriott 495 First-line Spvrs. of Retail Sales Workers 1,314 Hilton Worldwide 379 First-line Spvrs. of Food Prep. Workers 1,002 Macy's 353 First-line Spvrs. of Office & Admin. Workers 791 Inova Health System 347 Customer Service Representatives 733 Harris Teeter 294 Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners 707 Target Corporation 244 General Maintenance & Repair Workers 568 Nordstrom 240 Managers, All Other 547 Sunrise Senior Living 220 Stock Clerks & Order Fillers 452 Ritz-Carlton 219 Security Guards 451 United States Army 184 Source: Help Wanted Online (1/1/16 to 11/28/16) GED/High School

Ongoing regional challenges

• Talent attraction and retention
• Secondary and postsecondary education
• Transportation and infrastructure
• Commercial and industrial development
• Entrepreneurship and innovation

A-A has a relatively larger proportion

• f working age veterans

Veterans as a % of civilian pop. (Age 18+) % of veteran pop. aged 18-64 United States 7.6% 50.5% Virginia 10.8% 62.5% Washington, DC Metro Area 8.3% 64.6% Alexandria-Arlington 7.5% 68.0% Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

Career Pathways for Computer User Support Specialists/Web Developers

Computer User Support Specialists

DC Metro Jobs: 21,248 Current postings: 4,790

Computer Operators

DC Metro Jobs: 1,650 Current postings: 6

Web Developers

DC Metro Jobs: 6,373 Current postings: 2,688

Software Developers

DC Metro Jobs: 34,238 Current postings: 5,837

Network & Computer Systems Administrators

DC Metro Jobs: 13,119 Current postings: 5,269

Information Security Analysts

DC Metro Jobs: 3,566 Current postings: 3,097

Computer Network Support Specialists

DC Metro Jobs: 6,562 Current postings: 14

HS degree Some college, certificate Associate’s degree Bachelor’s degree

Graphic Designers

DC Metro Jobs: 7,028 Current postings: 310

Customer Service Representatives

DC Metro Jobs: 50,280 Current postings: 2,324

Marketing Managers

DC Metro Jobs: 5,567 Current postings: 2,605

Source: O*Net; Employment from Chmura Economics JobsEQ Average of 4 quarters ending in Q4 2016, Current postings represent online ads in 30 Days between 1/17/2017 and 2/16/2017.

Creating opportunities for local talent through career pathways

Median House Sales Price

(000s)

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City)

On-time graduation vary, but tend to lag for Hispanic students

High School All Students White African- American Hispanic Yorktown (APS) 97.0% 100.0% 91.3% 84.6% Washington-Lee (APS) 94.8% 100.0% 98.4% 86.3% Wakefield (APS) 88.1% 91.8% 93.4% 81.1% T.C. Williams (ACPS) 82.1% 92.8% 84.6% 70.5% Virginia 91.3% 93.9% 88.3% 82.8% Source: Virginia Department of Education

Less than two-thirds of A-A workers drive to work

Means of Transportation to Work United States Virginia Washington metro area Alexandria- Arlington Car, truck or van 85.6% 86.6% 75.0% 63.6% Public transportation 5.2% 4.7% 14.4% 24.0% Walked 2.8% 2.3% 3.5% 4.7% Bicycle 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% Other 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% Worked at home 4.6% 4.6% 5.1% 5.2%

Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

• 30.0%
• 20.0%
• 10.0%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Annual change in Metrorail Average Weekday Passenger Boardings

DC PG Maryland All Metro Alexandria Arlington Fairfax MG Maryland

Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA)

Metrorail ridership is in decline

• 15.0%
• 10.0%
• 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16* Annual change in Metrorail Average Weekday Passenger Boardings DC Maryland All Metro Alexandria Arlington Fairfax

Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA)

Several factors have led to significant increases in office vacancy rates

9.5% 17.1% 15.4% 12.4% 12.8% 17.7% 10.7% 20.3% 19.8% 17.4% 17.1% 14.9% 13.6% 11.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Arlington

• Pr. Georges

Fairfax Alexandria Montgomery Loudoun DC Office Vacancy Rate

2011 Q1 2016 Q3

Source:CoStar and Arlington Economic Development

The region must develop more innovative companies to move beyond being a ‘Federal City’

• The region possesses numerous innovation assets
• Federal: DARPA, ONR, AFOSR, NSF
• Campuses of 3 R1 Institutions
• Growing number of facilities (e.g. 1776, Eastern

Foundry, Capitol Post, TechShop) and services (e.g., Mason Enterprise Center, Alexandria SBDC) to support entrepreneurs and growth companies

• Success will depend on the region’s ability to keep

emerging companies as they grow and develop

Key conclusions

• Uncertainty about the direction of the federal gov’t

creates uncertainty about the regional economic and workforce development issues.

• The region is very much part of the broader DC

region.

• The region is very much a services-based economy

at all levels

• High-end professional and business services
• Lower wages services but vital services like

hospitality

• Fewer opportunities in the middle.
• Economic diversification will requires multi-

faceted, collaborative strategies

Questions?

Thank you

• Mark C. White, Ph.D.
• 703-993-2401
• mwhite34@gmu.edu