Assessing the Biological Threat: A Delphi Study Crystal Boddie, MPH - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Assessing the Biological Threat: A Delphi Study

Crystal Boddie, MPH December 16, 2015 BWC MSP, Geneva

Assessing the Bioweapons Threat

• In assessing the threat posed by biological

weapons use we often rely on expert opinion

– There are few historical examples – Intelligence information is limited

• We were interested in assessing how US

experts define the threat

– We conducted a modified Delphi study – And found that there is large disagreement among US experts about the threat

3

About the Study

• Modified Delphi Study

– 59 experts at the nexus of biology and security

• In biological science, biodefense, biosecurity, biosafety,

national security, public health, veterinary medicine, nonproliferation, defense, counterterrorism, international security policy

– 2 Rounds of a Delphi Survey

• Focused on obtaining collective expert opinion, but

avoiding “groupthink,”

• Preserves the anonymity of participant inputs
• Iterated response and feedback
• Statistical aggregation of expert judgments

Likelihood of a large-scale biological weapons attack to occur within the next 10 years

Most and Least Likely Actors

• Wide range of opinions, with some significant

findings:

– State bioweapons use thought to be significantly less likely than non-state or terrorist use (p<0.001)

• Particularly overt use by a state actor

– Religious extremist use was thought to be most likely, but not significantly more likely than other non-state actors

• Others included right and left wing violent non-state

actors, disgruntled individuals

Likelihood that a biological agent will be used as a weapon in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Non spore- forming bacteria Spore-forming bacteria Viruses Biological toxins Prions Fungi Synthetic pathogens Likelihood of agent use in a biological attack

Percentage Likelihood of Actionable Intelligence Warning of a Biological Attack

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number of Responses Likelihood of Intelligence Warning (%)

Threat Characterization Research

• Additional Delphi Data focused on expert

judgment about biological threat characterization research

• Is there a “red line” for research?

– A majority of Experts said yes (51/59), but few defined the “red line”

• We are analyzing other questions on threat

characterization

Thank You

Acknowledgements

• Co-Authors: Matthew Watson and Gigi Kwik

Gronvall (UPMC Center for Health Security) and Gary Ackerman (University of Maryland START Center)

• Support from the US Department of

Homeland Security