Ask The Experts May 28, 2020 Webinar will start at 11:00 AM EDT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Ask The Experts May 28, 2020 Webinar will start at 11:00 AM EDT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 30, 2023 403 likes •612 views

Ask The Experts May 28, 2020 Webinar will start at 11:00 AM EDT Clayton Slaughter Avery Vise Eric Starks Jonathan Starks Chief Strategy Officer VP, Trucking Chairman & CEO Chief Intelligence Officer Upcoming Content: Today May 28

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Avery Vise

VP, Trucking

Jonathan Starks

Chief Intelligence Officer

Ask The Experts

May 28, 2020

Clayton Slaughter

Chief Strategy Officer

Webinar will start at 11:00 AM EDT

Eric Starks

Chairman & CEO

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Upcoming Content:

Today – May 28th Trucking Update Truck & Trailer Outlook SOFI: Known Unknowns Weekly Transportation Update June 4th CV Market Update Webinar June 4th Shippers Update Rail Update Intermodal Report Weekly Transportation Update June 11th Rail Carload Outlook July 9th **Key Issues in Transportation**

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ASK THE EXPERT AGENDA

§Economic update §Modal Conditions

§ Trucking § Rail/Intermodal

§Known Unknowns: Coming into focus §Open Q&A

§ Submit your questions at any time in the Question pane of the GoToWebinar system

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UNEMPLOYMENT DURING COVID-19

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, FTR

3,307,000 6,867,000 6,615,000 5,237,000 4,442,000 3,867,000 3,176,000 2,687,000 2,446,000 2,123,000 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000

3/21/2020 3/28/2020 4/4/2020 4/11/2020 4/18/2020 4/25/2020 5/2/2020 5/9/2020 5/16/2020 5/23/2020

Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, seasonally adjusted

Previous High = 695,000 in October 1982

Note: Seasonal adjustments inflate initial claims filed since week ended March 14 by ~3.5 million.

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UNEMPLOYMENT DURING COVID-19

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, FTR

3,059,000 7,446,000 11,914,000 15,819,000 18,011,000 22,377,000 22,548,000 24,912,000 21,052,000 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000

3/21/2020 3/28/2020 4/4/2020 4/11/2020 4/18/2020 4/25/2020 5/2/2020 5/9/2020 5/16/2020

Weekly continued claims for unemployment insurance, seasonally adjusted

Previous High = 6,635,000 in May 2009

Note: Seasonal adjustments inflate current claims figure by ~2 million.

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DURABLE GOOD ORDERS – TOTAL

Source: Census Bureau, FTR

  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 $300 $325 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

In billions, seasonally adjusted

Y/Y change Total

April 2020 Orders: $169.9 billion Y/Y: 29.3% M/M: 17.2%

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DURABLE GOOD ORDERS – EX. TRANS

Source: Census Bureau, FTR

  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% $105 $115 $125 $135 $145 $155 $165 $175

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Excluding transportation, in billions, seasonally adjusted

Y/Y change Total

April 2020 Orders: $143.3 billion Y/Y: 9.3% M/M: 7.4%

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FREIGHT RECOVERY

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Restart Phase Full Recovery Phase Shutdown Phase

COVID-19 Truck Freight Recovery Index

Total (100 = Full recovery to pre-pandemic volumes)

20 40 60 80 100 120

2 / 3 / 2 2 2 / 1 / 2 2 2 / 1 7 / 2 2 2 / 2 4 / 2 2 3 / 2 / 2 2 3 / 9 / 2 2 3 / 1 6 / 2 2 3 / 2 3 / 2 2 3 / 3 / 2 2 4 / 6 / 2 2 4 / 1 3 / 2 2 4 / 2 / 2 2 4 / 2 7 / 2 2 5 / 4 / 2 2 5 / 1 1 / 2 2 5 / 1 8 / 2 2 5 / 2 5 / 2 2 6 / 1 / 2 2 6 / 8 / 2 2 6 / 1 5 / 2 2 6 / 2 2 / 2 2 6 / 2 9 / 2 2

Last Updated: 5/25/2020

Source: Truckstop.com Spot Market Insights Analysis by FTR | Transportation Intelligence™

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Restart Phase Full Recovery Phase Shutdown Phase

COVID-19 Truck Freight Recovery Index

Dry Van (100 = Full recovery to pre-pandemic volumes)

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2 / 3 / 2 2 2 / 1 / 2 2 2 / 1 7 / 2 2 2 / 2 4 / 2 2 3 / 2 / 2 2 3 / 9 / 2 2 3 / 1 6 / 2 2 3 / 2 3 / 2 2 3 / 3 / 2 2 4 / 6 / 2 2 4 / 1 3 / 2 2 4 / 2 / 2 2 4 / 2 7 / 2 2 5 / 4 / 2 2 5 / 1 1 / 2 2 5 / 1 8 / 2 2 5 / 2 5 / 2 2 6 / 1 / 2 2 6 / 8 / 2 2 6 / 1 5 / 2 2 6 / 2 2 / 2 2 6 / 2 9 / 2 2

Last Updated: 5/25/2020

Source: Truckstop.com Spot Market Insights Analysis by FTR | Transportation Intelligence™

Restocking Effect

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Restart Phase Full Recovery Phase Shutdown Phase

COVID-19 Truck Freight Recovery Index

Refrigerated (100 = Full recovery to pre-pandemic volumes)

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

2 / 3 / 2 2 2 / 1 / 2 2 2 / 1 7 / 2 2 2 / 2 4 / 2 2 3 / 2 / 2 2 3 / 9 / 2 2 3 / 1 6 / 2 2 3 / 2 3 / 2 2 3 / 3 / 2 2 4 / 6 / 2 2 4 / 1 3 / 2 2 4 / 2 / 2 2 4 / 2 7 / 2 2 5 / 4 / 2 2 5 / 1 1 / 2 2 5 / 1 8 / 2 2 5 / 2 5 / 2 2 6 / 1 / 2 2 6 / 8 / 2 2 6 / 1 5 / 2 2 6 / 2 2 / 2 2 6 / 2 9 / 2 2

Last Updated: 5/25/2020

Source: Truckstop.com Spot Market Insights Analysis by FTR | Transportation Intelligence™

Restocking Effect

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Restart Phase Full Recovery Phase Shutdown Phase

COVID-19 Truck Freight Recovery Index

Flatbed (100 = Full recovery to pre-pandemic volumes)

20 40 60 80 100 120

2 / 3 / 2 2 2 / 1 / 2 2 2 / 1 7 / 2 2 2 / 2 4 / 2 2 3 / 2 / 2 2 3 / 9 / 2 2 3 / 1 6 / 2 2 3 / 2 3 / 2 2 3 / 3 / 2 2 4 / 6 / 2 2 4 / 1 3 / 2 2 4 / 2 / 2 2 4 / 2 7 / 2 2 5 / 4 / 2 2 5 / 1 1 / 2 2 5 / 1 8 / 2 2 5 / 2 5 / 2 2 6 / 1 / 2 2 6 / 8 / 2 2 6 / 1 5 / 2 2 6 / 2 2 / 2 2 6 / 2 9 / 2 2

Last Updated: 5/25/2020

Source: Truckstop.com Spot Market Insights Analysis by FTR | Transportation Intelligence™

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Restart Phase Full Recovery Phase Shutdown Phase

COVID-19 Rail Freight Recovery Index

N.A. Intermodal (100 = Full recovery to pre-pandemic volumes)

Source: AAR, FTR Analysis by FTR | Transportation Intelligence™ of AAR Weekly Rail Traffic Report

85 90 95 100 105 110

1 / 1 1 / 2 2 1 / 1 8 / 2 2 1 / 2 5 / 2 2 2 / 1 / 2 2 2 / 8 / 2 2 2 / 1 5 / 2 2 2 / 2 2 / 2 2 2 / 2 9 / 2 2 3 / 7 / 2 2 3 / 1 4 / 2 2 3 / 2 1 / 2 2 3 / 2 8 / 2 2 4 / 4 / 2 2 4 / 1 1 / 2 2 4 / 1 8 / 2 2 4 / 2 5 / 2 2 5 / 2 / 2 2 5 / 9 / 2 2 5 / 1 6 / 2 2 5 / 2 3 / 2 2 5 / 3 / 2 2 6 / 6 / 2 2 6 / 1 3 / 2 2 6 / 2 / 2 2 6 / 2 7 / 2 2

Last Updated: 5/27/2020

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Restart Phase Full Recovery Phase Shutdown Phase

COVID-19 Rail Freight Recovery Index

N.A. Carload (100 = Full recovery to pre-pandemic volumes)

Source: AAR, FTR Analysis by FTR | Transportation Intelligence™ of AAR Weekly Rail Traffic Report

75 80 85 90 95 100 105

1 / 1 1 / 2 2 1 / 1 8 / 2 2 1 / 2 5 / 2 2 2 / 1 / 2 2 2 / 8 / 2 2 2 / 1 5 / 2 2 2 / 2 2 / 2 2 2 / 2 9 / 2 2 3 / 7 / 2 2 3 / 1 4 / 2 2 3 / 2 1 / 2 2 3 / 2 8 / 2 2 4 / 4 / 2 2 4 / 1 1 / 2 2 4 / 1 8 / 2 2 4 / 2 5 / 2 2 5 / 2 / 2 2 5 / 9 / 2 2 5 / 1 6 / 2 2 5 / 2 3 / 2 2 5 / 3 / 2 2 6 / 6 / 2 2 6 / 1 3 / 2 2 6 / 2 / 2 2 6 / 2 7 / 2 2

Last Updated: 5/27/2020

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A surprising trend…

Intermodal: Trailers on Flat Cars

Source: AAR, FTR Analysis by FTR | Transportation Intelligence™ of AAR Weekly Rail Traffic Report

Last Updated: 5/27/2020

  • 16.6%

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

  • 35%
  • 30%
  • 25%
  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 6 / 1 / 1 9 6 / 1 5 / 1 9 6 / 2 9 / 1 9 7 / 1 3 / 1 9 7 / 2 7 / 1 9 8 / 1 / 1 9 8 / 2 4 / 1 9 9 / 7 / 1 9 9 / 2 1 / 1 9 1 / 5 / 1 9 1 / 1 9 / 1 9 1 1 / 2 / 1 9 1 1 / 1 6 / 1 9 1 1 / 3 / 1 9 1 2 / 1 4 / 1 9 1 2 / 2 8 / 1 9 1 / 1 1 / 2 1 / 2 5 / 2 2 / 8 / 2 2 / 2 2 / 2 3 / 7 / 2 3 / 2 1 / 2 4 / 4 / 2 4 / 1 8 / 2 5 / 2 / 2 5 / 1 6 / 2 Thousands Y/Y %

N.A. Trailer Loadings 4 Week Avg. Ending 05/23/20

Carloads Vs. Prev. Year Carloads 5 Year Average - 4 Week Mov Avg.

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KNOWN UNKNOWNS: WHAT DO I FOCUS ON OVER THE NEXT 3 MONTHS?

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Known Unknowns

Key Elements

  • Virus Trajectory
  • Employment
  • Restart & the PPP Bridge
  • Stimulus
  • Sentiment
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Known Unknowns – Long Term

  • Supply Chain Diversification
  • Reshoring
  • Infrastructure Bill
  • Remote work culture shift
  • Federal Deficit
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Q & A

§ Type a question into the `Question’ pane.

We will attempt to answer as many of your questions as time permits

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REPLAY/SLIDES WILL BE AVAILABLE

§ A replay, along with slides, will be available later this week § Available to State of Freight INSIGHTS subscribers

Available in the ‘On-Demand Videos’ section when logged in

§ Check your email to find out when it is ready § Feel free to follow up with our speakers – or anyone else on the FTR team § Phone: 888.988.1699 § Email: ftr@ftrintel.com

Thank You!