ASEAN-Driven Regionalism The Politics of Institutional Divergence and Convergence in the Asia Pacific Alice D. Ba Associate Professor, Political Science & International Relations University of Delaware USA
“Southeast Asia” “East Asia “ “Asia Pacific” / East Asia ‘Plus’ “Southeast Asia” Plus: “East Asia” Plus: Brunei Cambodia Indonesia China Australia Laos Japan New Zealand Malaysia S. Korea United States Myanmar Russia Philippines (N, Korea ) Singapore Thailand Vietnam (Timor Leste)
Pre-1989 1989-1996 Post-1997 Association of Southeast Asia Pacific Economic ASEAN Plus Three (APT) Asian Nations (1967) Cooperation Forum (APEC) (1997) (1989) East Asia Summit (EAS) ASEAN Regional Forum (2005) (ARF) (1994)
Outline Geopolitical Context: I. Regionalism in Asia as a post-Cold War phenomenon II. Institutional Context: ASEAN-style regionalism III. The EAS Debate The US Challenge for Regional Processes and Effect on Asia’s “regional architecture”
“US Hub plus Asian Spokes” South Korea Philippines Australia New Zealand Thailand United States Japan
Defining Features of US System Dense network of bilateral alliances Little security cooperation between US allies; no multilateral security structures Strong asymmetry in economic and security relations between US and regional actors Precedence and centrality of Japan in US security relations with East Asia Extensive economic benefits to security partners. (US trade and aid support to regional allies in exchange for military access) US centric security conceptions and approaches Red: CW conflicts / hot wars Solid green: formal allies Dotted green: de facto allies
Two Interdependent Geopolitical / Geo-Economic Challenges 1) The United States 2) China
“East Asia’s greatest single problem is how to incorporate China into its regional arrangements – how to ‘socialize’ the country by reducing the element of threat while accentuating the positive elements in China’s regional relationships.” ~Jose Almonte, Former Director General of the Philippines National Security Council, 1997
ASEAN Regional Forum Established in 1994 Maintain peace and stability in the region Promote regional development and prosperity Three-stage process Stage 1 on Confidence Building Measures, Stage 2 on Preventive Diplomacy Stage 3 on Conflict Management Gradual evolutionary approach, decision-making by consensus Movement at a pace comfortable to all members
ASEAN Plus Three Started in December 1997 Membership: China, South Korea, Japan, and ASEAN’s ten member - states China setting the pace (ASEAN- China FTA); “ASEAN Plus One” Processes very dynamic. Driving forces are economic (economic gains) and political-strategic (engaging China; offsetting dependence on / vulnerability to global forces and arrangements; ensuring ASEAN-Southeast Asia is not eclipsed by China, other major powers, or “Northeast Asia”)
Two Interdependent Geopolitical / Geo-Economic Challenges 1) The United States 2) China Middle Power Initiative: 1) ASEAN 2) Australia 3) Japan 4) South Korea
Pre-1989 1989-1996 Post-1997 Association of Southeast Asia Pacific Economic ASEAN Plus Three (APT) Asian Nations (1967) Cooperation Forum (APEC) (1997) (1989) East Asia Summit (EAS) ASEAN Regional Forum (2005) (ARF) (1994)
Key Features of ASEAN Institutionalism: ASEAN Norms: • Not a military organization • non-use of force, • regional autonomy, • Non-consequentialist • non-interference, • no military pacts • Institutionally minimalist • Operates by “consultation” and “consensus” (not majority rules) “The ‘ASEAN Way’ refers to a • Inclusive (e.g., non-ideological in Cold War sense; set of diplomatic norms…[that] “open to … all states in the South -East Asian Region encourages the Southeast Asian subscribing to the aforementioned aims, principles countries to seek an informal and purposes.”) and incremental approach to cooperation through … • Non-confrontational consultation and dialogue.” (Katsumata 2003) • Informal, voluntarist • Consensus-driven • Incremental
Key Founding Conditions: • Regionalism coincides with nationalism (nation building ongoing; domestic instability) • Born of conflict: Intervention (by both neighbors and extra- regional powers) was the norm. Subsequent interpreted lessons. • Cold War Insulation ASEAN-style regionalism = • Greater economic prosperity • Greater national stability • Greater regional stability • Greater international security • Greater international recognition
The ASEAN Plus Three Framework Membership: China, South Korea, Japan, and ASEAN’s ten member -states Catalyzing event: the Asian Financial Crisis (1997-8) & deficiencies of US and global (IMF) response 1997: First Informal Summit of 10 ASEAN states, China, Japan, Korea 1999: Informal Summit is officially called “ASEAN Plus Three” 2010: Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) Agreement, a multilateral currency swap contract (USD 120,000,000,000) . Core objectives: (i) to address balance of payment and short-term liquidity difficulties in the region, and (ii) to supplement the existing international financial arrangements. The annual APT leaders’ summits is now supplemented by meetings of 55 other bodies covering at least 16 areas of APT cooperation, including political-security cooperation in non-traditional security areas (e.g., terrorism, piracy, drug & human trafficking). APT Framework includes regular meetings of: Heads of State Labour Ministers Environment Ministers Finance Ministers Energy Ministers Foreign Ministers Tourism Ministers Economic Ministers Health Ministers
“ASEAN Way” v. “American Way”? “ASEAN Way” “American Way” Consensus-driven: organic, often open- Functionally-driven: specific pre-conceived ended outcomes functional outcomes Regional organizations are conceived as Regional organizations are conceived as forums for conflict moderation . mechanisms for conflict resolution Value: Relationship-building, preserving the Value: Efficiency unity of whole Logic: Reassurance (persuasion & inclusion) Logic: Deterrence (coercion & exclusion) ASEAN operates through constructive “The United States operates with legal engagement, dialogue, reassurance, and briefs, economic sanctions, and ‘sticks’.” consensus. (Katzenstein and Okawara 2005)
The United States is Back!
“The EAS is a forum for dialogue on broad strategic, political and economic issues of common interest and concern with the aim of promoting peace, stability and economic prosperity in East Asia. It is an open, inclusive, First summit held in 2005, was attended by: transparent and outward- • The ASEAN 10 looking forum, which strives • Australia, to strengthen global norms • People’s Republic of China, and universally recognised • Republic of India, values with ASEAN as the • Japan, driving force working in • Republic of Korea and partnership with the other • New Zealand participants of the East Asia Summit .” (ASEAN In 2010, membership expanded to include: Secretariat) • The United States • Russia
Extension of ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity & Cooperation Code of conduct for interstate Papua New Guinea (1989) • relations adopted by ASEAN 1976. • China (2003) • India (2003) Mutual respect for the independence, • Japan (2004) sovereignty, equality, territorial • Pakistan (2004) integrity and national identity of all • Republic of Korea (2004) nations • Russian Federation (2004) The right of every State to lead its national existence free from external • Mongolia (2005) interference, subversion or coercion • New Zealand (2005) Non-interference in the internal affairs • Australia (2005) of one another • France (2007) Settlement of differences or disputes by • Timor-Leste (2007) peaceful means • Sri Lanka (2007) Renunciation of the threat or use of • Bangladesh (2007) force Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (2008 ) • Effective cooperation among • United States (2009) themselves • Canada (2010) • Turkey (2010) 1998 ASEAN Protocol Amended TAC • United Kingdom (2012) to allow for non-Southeast Asian states to accede to ASEAN. • EU (2012) • Brazil (2012)
The politics of regionalism in the Asia Pacific is reflective of differences over three questions: What regionalism in Asia should do What regionalism in Asia should look like Whom regionalism in Asia should include
What Next? 1) The EAS could be mired by the same kinds of disagreements and dissatisfactions that have plagued the ARF
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