ASEAN Academic Networking in Water Disaster Management and Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ASEAN Workshop on ASEAN Academic Networking in Water Disaster Management and Climate Change among ASEAN countries Swissotel Le Concorde Bangkok, Thailand 28-30, January 2015

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Climate of Yangon City, Myanmar

Khin Kay Khaing Lecturer, Department of Geography University of Yangon Khnie.khinkay@gmail.com

Climate Change

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The consequences of climate change can already be seen in worldwide. Temperatures are rising, rainfall patterns are shifting, glaciers are melting, sea levels are getting higher and hazards such as floods and droughts are becoming more common. These changes pose a serious threat to human lives, to economic development and to the natural world. Society needs to take measures to adapt to these impacts.

Model using only natural forcing Model using both natural and anthropogenic forcing

Global temperature ( from 1900 to 2000)

The trend can clearly be seen that global temperature has risen since 1940s and after 1960s more significant rise has

• ccurred.

The average surface temperature of the Earth rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.08°F to 1.62°F) between 1906 and 2006, and the rate of temperature increase nearly doubled in the last 50 years.

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Global warming is rising global average temperature by increasing in both day and night time temperature.

• Global warming has already changed the world climate and changes

in global climate become more and more significant with each passing decade.

• Changes in climatic elements vary regionally and even locally.
• To reduce impacts and vulnerability and to conduct adaptation

strategies, from global, regional to local scale understanding and assessments on climate change are the most importance.

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How changes are recognized in climate of Yangon City in context with global warming? Are these changes apparent? How about the future trend of change in climate condition

• f Yangon City?

Aims to evaluate the climate of Yangon City in context with global warming.

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Climate of Yangon City

Regression line showing decreasing rainy days from 1960 to 2005 The shorter duration of rainy season has experienced since 1970s in Yangon City due to the continual late onset and early withdrawal of monsoon over delta area of Myanmar.

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50 100 150 200 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Day

Station Period Average annual total (mm) SD (mm) COV Hmawbi 1961-2002 (42 years) 2507 301.4 12% Mingaladon 1955-2007 (53 years) 2603 338.4 13% Kaba-Aye 1950-2002 (53 years) 2710 328.1 12%

Average, Standard deviation and coefficient of variability for rainfall of Yangon

y = 2.4443x + 1130.1 y = -0.651x + 839.71 y = -4.3067x + 650.98 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 6 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 6 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 6 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 6 Rainfall (mm) Early Mid Late

Fluctuations and trends of early, peak, and late monsoon rainfall in Yangon City

Early- 21st May to June 30th Peak- June to August Late- September to October

Peak-monsoon rainfall slightly increases but early and late monsoon rainfall decreases.

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Over the period of 42 years, the annual total rainfall increases slightly at Kaba-Aye and the other two stations show slight decreasing trends.

y = 3.033x + 2644.8 y = -3.7242x + 2587.7 y = -4.4154x + 2712.2

1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Year

Annual rainfall (mm)

Linear (Kaba-Aye) Linear (Hmaw bi) Linear (Mingaladin)

Fluctuations and trends of average annual rainfall in Yangon

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• 30%
• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Departure from normal

Percentage departure from normal rainfall in Kaba-Aye, Yangon To examine the extreme rainfall condition in Yangon City, DFN is calculated for the years from 1950 to 2002. The extreme rainfall

• ccurs when DFN is outside the range of (±) 20% during the

particular period (DMH, Myanmar).

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• Temperature, the major climatic element, globally

increases.

• Global continental change is significant from 1950s to

present.

• To analyze the changes in temperature of Yangon City,

simple graphs and trend lines, and decadal temperature data of 6 decades (1951 to 2010) are used.

• To avoid the effect of cloudy sky and precipitation,

maximum and minimum temperatures of December and January are analyzed.

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Mingaladon 10 20 30 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Temperature(celsius) Maxi 1951-60 Mini 1951-60 Maxi 2001-10 Mini 2001-10 Kaba-Aye 10 20 30 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Temperature (celsius) Maximun 1951-60 Maximun 2001-10 Minimun 1951-60 Minimun 2001-10

A B

Average maximum and minimum temperature differences in Yangon

temperatures of first decade (1950s) vary apparently that of last decade (2010s)

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Month 1951-1960 Maximum (Celsius) 2001-2010 Maximum (Celsius) 1951-60 Minimum (Celsius) 2001-2010 Minimum (Celsius) Jan 32.8 33.4 20.2 16.0 Feb 33.7 35.6 20.6 17.6 Mar 35.4 37.0 22.3 20.6 Apr 36.2 38.1 24.8 23.0 May 33.6 33.6 25.6 22.8 Jun 30.4 31.1 25.0 22.2 Jul 30.1 30.5 24.8 21.8 Aug 29.7 30.2 24.7 22.2 Sep 30.4 31.0 24.9 22.2 Oct 31.7 33.0 24.8 22.2 Nov 32.1 34.1 23.8 19.9 Dec 31.4 33.1 20.9 16.8

average daily maximum temperatures of 1950s are lower than that of

• 2000s. However average daily minimum temperatures of 1950s are

higher than that of 2000s. Decadal daily temperatures of other two stations in Yangon are also found the same pattern. But Kaba-Aye is more pronounce which is situated at the Yangon City center.

Decadal daily maximum and minimum temperature of Kaba-Aye

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Minimun Temperature 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Temperature(celsius) 1950-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-2010

B

Daily maximum and minimum temperature by decade

• More cloudy

sky in the months of May to September affects both monthly and daytime temperatures.

• So day time

temperatures are markedly lower in the months of May to October in Yangon City

Maximum Temperature, Kaba-A ye 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Temperature (Celsius)

1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010

A

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Daily average maximum and minimum temperatures at December, January, February at ten-year intervals over a period of 60 years (Kaba-Aye, Yangon)

B

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 1950- 1960 1961- 1970 1971- 1980 1981- 1990 1991- 2000 2001- 2010 Jan Feb Dec

A

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 1951- 1960 1961- 1970 1971- 1980 1981- 1990 1991- 2000 2001- 2010 Temperature (ceisus) Jan Feb Dec

• The global average surface temperature has increased significantly since 1950.
• According to Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007), the rate of global

warming average over the last 50 year is 0.13 dC ± 0.03 d C per decade.

• According to time series analysis on temperature in this study, Yangon City is

also warmer over decade by decade at a somewhat rate in day time.

• Although warming condition experience at day time in Yangon, night time is

experiencing cooling effect. This can be expressed by figure.

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Daily average maximum and minimum temperature in December at ten-year intervals over a period of 60 years (Kaba-Aye, Yangon)

December maximum temperature 30 31 32 33 34 1951- 1960 1961- 1970 1971- 1980 1981- 1990 1991- 2000 2001- 2010 Temperature (celsius)

A December minimum temberature 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 1951- 1960 1961- 1970 1971- 1980 1981- 1990 1991- 2000 2001- 2010 Temperature (Celsius) B

• Figure A, overall trend reflects a steady increase of day time

temperature throughout 60 years period (1950-2010),

• Figure B, overall trend reflects a steady decrease of night time

temperature throughout 60 years period (1950-2010).

• It shows an important condition of DTR in Yangon. Under this

day and night time temperature trends, DTR of Yangon has increased as time pass through decade by decade.

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Many evidences have revealed that the urban heat island affects on precipitation, cloud cover, and diurnal range of temperature (DTR) in micro climate scale.

A decrease in DTR of approximately 0.1 dC per decade for the period 1950 to 1993 was reported in Third Assessment (TAR, IPCC 2001). This is due to increase in night time temperature. In Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, IPCC 2007), global average DTR has not changed from 1979 to 2004 as both day and night time temperature have risen at about the same rate. Trends are highly variable from one region to another. The rise in both day and night time temperatures contributes warming affect on globe. According to temperature analysis in Yangon City, a rise in day time temperatures and a fall in night time temperatures contribute increase in DTR and decrease in daily mean temperature per decade by decade in Yangon City.

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Temperature (celsius)

Mean of 2000s Mean of 1950s Mean of 1980s

Decadal mean monthly temperature, Kaba Aye

mean temperatures decrease within 60 years in accordance with increased maximum temperature is subtracted by decreased minimum temperatures in Yangon City.

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Conclusion

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How changes are recognized in climate of Yangon City in context with global warming?

Are these changes apparent? How about the future trend of change in climate condition of Yangon City?

• So this study shows past and present trend of change in

climate of Yangon City.

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new scenarios of RCPs (Representative concentration pathways) by IPCC in the fifth assessment report (AR 5) World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) BCC-CSM1.1 Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration

• The localize variation is important factor for local-scale-
• planning. The local differences may be due to some local

factors such as location of station, and environmental condition of respective station. Surrounding physical condition, environmental situation, and other socio- economic factors of an area can influent its climatic

• condition. So, more detail analysis should be made by

using sufficient environmental and climatic observed data for the City.

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If, local conditions that can generate imperceptible change in temperature or can mitigate or can be mild the extreme climatic events, it should be conserved as

• ne of the adaptation strategies. Microclimate study of

Cities should be made by using observed climatic data and combined with local environmental and social condition of that area. If there have favorable existing conditions in an area, it should be conserved.

Than Thank You Ve k You Very Muc ry Much

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Methods and data used

• Time-series analysis, statistical computation, regression and

trend line analysis , and graphical representations (understand changing climatic elements and variability).

• Standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (COV)

(examine the variability of rainfall in Yangon City).

• Percentage departure from normal (DFN) is calculated by

[{(R-N)/N }*100] (where ; R- annual rainfall at given period, N- normal rainfall of 1960-1990 ). (analyze the extreme rainfall condition)

• Temperature (both maximum and minimum),
• Rainfall and Rainy days,
• Dates of monsoon onset and withdrawal

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